Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The domestic raw material pharmaceutical industry is at the bottom of the cycle, with some companies actively transitioning to innovative drug development, which may lead to a harvest period [1] - The raw material drug sector has experienced a four-year downward cycle, with prices of various products, including sartans and heparins, reaching historical lows, resulting in some leading companies operating at a loss [1] - Companies like Huahai Pharmaceutical and Borui Pharmaceutical are focusing on innovative drugs in oncology and autoimmune fields, with several products in various clinical trial stages [2] Group 2: Vaccine and Blood Products Sector - The vaccine industry is facing a continuous decline in performance due to a decrease in newborn numbers and changes in the competitive landscape, although some companies are gradually adopting new technologies and products [3] - The blood products sector is also at the bottom of the cycle, with revenue and net profit expected to decline in 2025 due to inventory levels and demand suppression from medical insurance [3] - The consolidation of leading companies in the blood products industry is expected to increase industry concentration and stabilize pricing [3] Group 3: Medical Services Sector - The medical services sector is experiencing a decline in performance due to DRGs and the consumption environment, with a shift towards utilizing AI technology to enhance the capabilities of primary doctors [4] - The core competitiveness of the medical services industry lies in acquiring and training quality doctors and hospital management, with AI expected to improve patient coverage and diagnostic capabilities [4]

相关研究报告 《集采优化叠加创新驱动，Pharma 迎 来 发 展 新 阶 段 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.9.22 医药生物 2025 年 09 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 医药生物 沪深300 《创新药行业进入快速成长期，关注 未来 6-12 个月投资机会—行业周报》 -2025.9.14 《中药及医药商业 2025H1 复盘：短期 承压，静待花开—行业点评报告》 -2025.9.8 原料药公司加速创新药布局，AI+医疗布局逐步深化 ——行业深度报告 | 余汝意（分析师） | 阮帅（分析师） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | ruanshuai@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790524040007 | 原料药板块：创新转型正当时 原料药行业经历近 4 年周期下行，各类产品价格跌至部分龙头企业处于亏损的阶段， 行业整体处于底部区域，其中沙坦类、肝素类、动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong demand, resulting in sustained high growth in sales of domestic new drugs, with several innovative pharmaceutical companies turning losses into profits and entering a stable growth phase [2]. Pharmaceutical Industry Overview - Innovative Drugs: The industry is witnessing a significant increase in the sales of domestic new drugs driven by strong demand, with several companies achieving profitability [2]. - Medical Devices: The high-value consumables sector is seeing mild price reductions, with ongoing domestic substitution and accelerated overseas business progress. The collection and procurement in neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing, and new products are expected to drive growth [2]. - Blood Products: The market share is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape. Demand is expected to upgrade towards new products, enhancing industry prosperity [3]. - API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients): The end of the capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers, indicates a clear upward turning point for the industry, with leading companies expected to see significant revenue and profit growth [3]. - CXO (Contract Research Organization): The CDMO sector is stabilizing in core business profitability while emerging fields like peptides and ADCs are rapidly growing, enhancing corporate profitability [3]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail: The hospital sector is recovering, while the retail sector is expected to gradually improve in performance as inventory is digested [3]. Research and Development Trends - The domestic innovative drug business development (BD) is heating up, likely boosting downstream demand recovery. Domestic companies are improving their technology, products, and services, establishing brand effects, and benefiting from the ongoing tariff war with the U.S. [4]. - The research service sector is expected to see improved financial indicators for leading companies due to supply-demand improvements and an upward cycle [4]. Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry has published a total of 260 research reports since October 1 of last year, indicating a robust analytical framework and ongoing market engagement [5]. - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, with ongoing upgrades in product offerings and expansion into overseas markets [2][3]. Summary of Reports and Meetings - The company has conducted numerous offline strategy meetings and expert discussions, indicating active engagement with industry stakeholders and investors [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The pricing power of innovative drugs is improving, reflecting the global competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions due to continued domestic substitution and accelerated overseas business progress [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are experiencing stable growth post-collection, with new products being launched [2]. - The high-value consumables market is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic replacement and the introduction of new products [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is seeing a recovery in bidding prices, with ongoing high-speed growth in bidding data this year [2]. - Companies are entering a phase of inventory reduction, with performance expected to improve in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is experiencing product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is concentrating on central state-owned enterprises, gradually clearing the competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to see continuous upgrades to new products, with industry sentiment gradually improving [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The API sector is benefiting from the end of a capital expenditure peak, with three growth logic points driving upward trends: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies in the API sector are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is witnessing a recovery in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs and ongoing observation of collection progress [2]. - The retail pharmacy sector is influenced by the pace of supply-side clearing and business model upgrades, with expectations of increased store closures in the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 8: Research and Development Services - The domestic innovative drug business development is heating up, likely driving downstream demand recovery [2]. - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities for domestic companies, leveraging cost-effectiveness and service differentiation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The industry is positioned for a "Davis double" effect, where both performance and valuation are expected to improve [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions, while domestic replacements continue to grow, and overseas business progresses rapidly [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing after centralized procurement, with new products expected to contribute to growth [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a high-speed growth in bidding data, with companies entering a destocking phase, which is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is seeing continuous product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to upgrade towards new products, gradually improving the industry's overall health [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The industry is at an upward turning point due to the end of a capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits in the medium term [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is seeing a revival in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs, while the retail pharmacy sector is influenced by supply-side adjustments and business model upgrades [2]. - The performance of offline pharmacies is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with leading chains like YaoXingTang making progress in store upgrades [2]. Group 8: Research Reports - A series of in-depth research reports on various companies and sectors within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries have been published, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The innovative drug industry chain has shown significant performance, with multiple sectors expected to see upward turning points in H2 2025 [1] - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a strong rebound, significantly outperforming the broader market, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rising by 26.28% as of August 29, 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 12.01 percentage points [2][9] - The report highlights a notable improvement in profit growth in June 2025, indicating a positive trend for the pharmaceutical industry [31] Summary by Sections Subsector Performance - **Chemical Pharmaceuticals**: In Q2 2025, revenue reached 189.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, while net profit was 24 billion yuan, up 4.4% [2] - **A-share Innovative Drugs**: Q2 2025 revenue grew by 31.6% year-on-year, with net profit losses narrowing by 61% [2] - **Hong Kong Stock Innovative Drugs**: H1 2025 revenue was 735.6 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 64.3 billion yuan, up 239.9% [2] - **Vaccines**: Revenue in Q2 2025 was 8.5 billion yuan, down 37.5% year-on-year, with net profit of 1 billion yuan, down 94.8% [3] - **Blood Products**: H1 2025 revenue was 11.4 billion yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year, with net profit of 2.75 billion yuan, down 13.1% [3] - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: H1 2025 revenue was 177.5 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, with net profit of 22.1 billion yuan, up 0.4% [4] - **Medical Devices**: H1 2025 revenue was 115.96 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, with net profit of 18.35 billion yuan, down 17.6% [3] - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: H1 2025 revenue was 468.1 billion yuan, down 0.04% year-on-year, with net profit of 9.8 billion yuan, up 8.1% [5] Market Overview - The pharmaceutical sector's valuation remains low, with a premium rate narrowing. As of August 29, 2025, the CITIC Pharmaceutical PE (TTM) was 30.8X, indicating a 22.03% premium rate, below the historical average [17] - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in pharmaceuticals has increased, with the total public fund's pharmaceutical heavy position at 9.8% in Q2 2025, up 0.7 percentage points [21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the innovative drug sector, driven by ongoing business development and data extraction catalysts, alongside easing policy disruptions [2][9] - The medical device sector is expected to see a turning point in performance in H2 2025, with increased demand and improved financial results anticipated [40]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a recovery with improved profit growth and increased fund allocation, indicating potential for continued outperformance in the market [1][2]. Market Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 26.28%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 12.01 percentage points, ranking 9th among 30 CITIC primary industries [1]. - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in pharmaceuticals increased in Q2 2025, with a total public fund pharmaceutical heavy position of 9.8%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. Macro Situation - Profit growth in the pharmaceutical industry showed significant improvement in June 2025, with Q2 profits rising by 4.5% year-on-year [2]. - The number of bidding activities accelerated in Q1 2025, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [2]. - License-out transactions surged in H1 2025, with 72 deals completed, exceeding half of the total transactions in 2024, and the total transaction amount was 16% higher than the entire 2024 [2]. Subsector Performance - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: Q2 2025 revenue was 967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, but net profit increased by 8.3% [3]. - A-share Innovative Drugs: Q2 2025 revenue grew by 31.6% year-on-year, with net losses narrowing by 61% [3]. - Hong Kong Innovative Drugs: H1 2025 revenue reached 735.6 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 239.9% [3]. Specific Sector Insights - Vaccines: Q2 2025 revenue fell by 37.5% year-on-year, with net profit down 94.8%, indicating industry growth challenges [4]. - Blood Products: H1 2025 revenue was 114 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6%, but net profit decreased by 13.1% [4]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine: H1 2025 revenue was 1775 billion yuan, down 5.5%, but net profit increased by 0.4% [4]. - Medical Devices: H1 2025 revenue decreased by 5.0%, with a net profit decline of 17.6% [4]. Chain Performance - Specialty Chains: H1 2025 revenue was 315 billion yuan, down 3.9%, with net profit decreasing by 9.7% [5]. - General Hospitals: H1 2025 revenue was 89 billion yuan, down 9%, with a significant net profit drop of 38.2% [6]. - Pharmacies: H1 2025 revenue was 578 billion yuan, slightly up by 0.1%, with net profit increasing by 0.9% [6]. - Pharmaceutical Distribution: H1 2025 revenue was 4681 billion yuan, nearly flat, but net profit increased by 8.1% [6]. - Raw Materials: Q2 2025 revenue was 355 billion yuan, down 5.3%, with net profit decreasing by 13.6% [7]. Life Sciences and CXO - Life Sciences Services: H1 2025 revenue was 79 billion yuan, up 6.6%, with net profit increasing by 18.1% [7]. - CXO: H1 2025 revenue reached 447 billion yuan, up 12.7%, with net profit rising by 61.7% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][13] Core Views - The company is steadily increasing its plasma collection volume and expanding the number of plasma stations through both organic growth and acquisitions. The introduction of new products, particularly the 10% immunoglobulin, is expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][13] - The financial forecast indicates a projected revenue increase from 1,943 million yuan in 2025 to 2,466 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [4][14] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 461 million yuan in 2025 to 666 million yuan in 2027, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.91 yuan to 1.32 yuan [4][14] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 2,652 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 1,735 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1,943 million yuan in 2025 [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease from 237 million yuan in 2023 to 397 million yuan in 2024, before increasing to 461 million yuan in 2025 [4] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.2% in 2023 to 7.5% by 2027 [4][14] Market Data - The current stock price is 25.77 yuan, with a target price set at 30.18 yuan, indicating a potential upside [6][7] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 12,994 million yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 54.72 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 19.51 by 2027 [4][7] Industry Context - The company operates within the pharmaceutical and essential consumer goods sector, focusing on blood products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to see a significant recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by major policy optimizations in medical insurance, a strong recovery in hospital demand, and returns from innovation [1] Pharma Sector - The pharmaceutical sector's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 are -4.04% and -0.50% respectively, with traditional and generic drug companies facing revenue pressure due to centralized procurement policies [2] - Companies with a high proportion of innovative drugs are benefiting from rapid commercialization, maintaining good growth [2] - The sector's R&D expense ratio is 12.69%, up 0.29 percentage points from the first half of 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation [2] - The gross margin and net margin for the sector are 66.83% and 20.73%, respectively, showing improvement due to the higher proportion of high-margin innovative drug revenues [2] Biotech Sector - The biotech sector's revenue growth rate is 14.12%, with a significant contribution from BD licensing income [3] - Many biotech companies are achieving operational profitability through drug commercialization, with companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics leading the way [3] - The sector is expected to showcase innovative products at international conferences, indicating a strong presence in global innovation [3] Medical Devices - The medical device sector's revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 are -5.11% and -17.99%, respectively, due to policy disruptions and delayed procurement funding [4] - Despite the overall decline, certain sub-sectors show promise, with expectations of a turning point in Q3 2025 [5] CRO and CDMO - The CRO sector's revenue growth is 14.05%, with net profit growth of 18.34%, benefiting from a recovery in overseas investment and innovation [8] - The CDMO sector's revenue growth is 10.34%, with strong demand for projects in drug development and production [9] Blood Products - The blood products sector's revenue growth is 0.64%, with net profit declining by 13.06%, but long-term growth remains strong due to increasing domestic supply [12] Internet Healthcare - The internet healthcare sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with a revenue growth rate of 16.31% and a net profit growth rate of 134.16%, indicating a shift towards profitability [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in plasma collection, with a total of 320.39 tons collected in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, which is above the industry average [6][7] - The approval of high-concentration intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in May 2025 positions the company as the third domestic entity to offer this product, enhancing its competitive edge [6][7] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.51%, while net profit was 225 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 28.68% due to lower gross margins in blood products and amortization from the acquisition of Green Cross [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.929 billion yuan, 2.248 billion yuan, and 2.601 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 449 million yuan, 549 million yuan, and 665 million yuan [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.89 yuan, 1.09 yuan, and 1.32 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.34, 24.01, and 19.82 [6][7] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 53.01%, down 14.02 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 22.37%, down 12.88 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]