公 司 研 究 引领变革，拐点可期 海天味业(603288) 海天味业（603288）跟踪报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | 本报告导读： 引领"餐饮解决方案"及"复调"商业模式并举将保障公司中长期超额收益，同时 我们预计新一轮提价潮即将到来，顺势而为有望实现"量价齐升"。 投资要点： 风险提示：餐饮需求复苏不及预期；渠道扩张乏力；食安风险等 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 03 月 03 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：热点主题交易热度节后回升，金属资源品主题普涨，AI 应用主题回调。中东战 火强化能源资源价格，Token 出海成为 AI 投资新叙事，重视两会内需方向增量政策。 2、【汽车研究】汽车：展望 2026 年，乘用车销量预计温和增长，新能源高端化趋势明确，细分 市场供给加速释放。我们看好全球化布局领先、高端化表现亮眼、智能化能力突出的车企。 3、【固定收益研究】：战争冲击对债券的影响往往呈现"短期避险—中期再定价"的阶段切换， 判断持续性需同时跟踪通胀/财政路径与尾部风险指标，而非仅看单一期限利率点位。 4、【食品饮料研究】海天味业：引领"餐饮解决方案"及"复调"商业模式并举将保障公司中长 期超额收益，同时我们预计新一轮提价潮即将到来，顺势而为有望实现"量价齐升"。 5、【海外科技研究】MINIMAX-WP：极致性 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, five out of eight tracked essential consumer goods sectors showed positive growth, while two experienced negative growth and one remained flat. The sectors with growth included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while premium and above baijiu and dairy products saw declines. The improvement in data is attributed to the extended Spring Festival holiday and increased travel enthusiasm, which boosted demand for catering and related supply chain products [3][18]. Summary by Sector Baijiu Sector - **Premium and Above Baijiu**: Revenue reached RMB 44.0 billion in February, down 14.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 91.0 billion, a decrease of 14.2% year-on-year. The sector faced pressure on both volume and price due to reliance on business consumption and numerous brands affecting price control [4][19]. - **Mass-Market and Below Baijiu**: Revenue was RMB 17.4 billion in February, flat year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 40.3 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year. The prices of mass-market baijiu showed signs of stabilization, attributed to its inelastic demand and balanced producer-distributor relationships [20]. Beer Sector - Revenue in the beer sector was RMB 15.2 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 32.2 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year. The sector benefited from seasonal factors and increased demand in lower-tier markets, with the RMB 8-10 price segment driving revenue growth [21]. Condiments Sector - Revenue in the condiments sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 88.4 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year. The recovery in catering channels and increased inventory replenishment contributed to this growth [22]. Dairy Products Sector - Revenue in the dairy sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, down 1.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 85.0 billion, flat year-on-year. Despite ongoing pressure, there was a noticeable recovery in catering consumption and gifting needs during the Spring Festival [23]. Frozen Food Sector - Revenue in the frozen food sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 8.9% year-on-year, also marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 29.0 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. The sector's performance was supported by Spring Festival stockpiling and increased demand from small B-end clients [24]. Soft Drinks Sector - Revenue in the soft drinks sector was RMB 49.8 billion in February, up 2.3% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 146.0 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year. The sector faced intensifying market competition, reflected in the discount rates for products [26]. Catering Sector - Revenue in the catering sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving its third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 30.2 billion, up 3.6% year-on-year. The sector benefited from the extended Spring Festival holiday, although profitability remained under pressure [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector for 2026, particularly focusing on cyclical opportunities in the liquor and restaurant supply chain [2][6]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see a recovery, with Moutai prices stabilizing in the first quarter, indicating a turning point in the current cycle. The report anticipates a concentration trend in the industry, favoring leading companies capable of national expansion and those with regional consolidation potential [2][6]. - The report highlights a structural improvement in the mass food sub-sector, with competition shifting from price to quality, and a gradual balance in supply and demand. It predicts a sequential improvement in food CPI [2][6][8]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - As of March 1, Moutai's bottle price is 1650 RMB, and the case price is 1680 RMB, remaining stable post-Spring Festival. The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, slightly better than market expectations [7]. - The report notes significant differentiation and concentration in the market, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai's sales volume is projected to increase by over 30% year-on-year during the Spring Festival, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 5%-10% increase [7]. - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with leading brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year. The report concludes that the fundamentals for top brands (Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu) have bottomed out [7]. Mass Food Sector - The mass food sub-sector is showing structural improvements, with companies expected to recover due to their cyclical attributes and low valuations. Key recommendations include companies in the restaurant supply chain, such as Anjijia Food, Qianhe Flavoring, and Tianwei Food [8][9]. - The dairy industry is anticipated to see further optimization in supply and demand dynamics, with long-term growth potential in deep-processed products and low-temperature milk. Recommended companies include Yili and New Dairy [9]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 1.54% last week, while the liquor segment fell by 2.26%. The report ranks the food and beverage sector 29th among 31 sub-sectors [5][28]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of various sub-sectors, indicating that the liquor sector has faced significant challenges, with white liquor underperforming the market by 5.06 percentage points [28].

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 3 月 1 日 3 月金股组合 中银证券研究部 2026 年 3 月金股 3 月金股组合 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 策略观点：A 股短期波动中期聚焦国内主线，资源品行情正当时。美以 军事打击伊朗对于全球市场及资产价格的影响取决于行动的目标及持续 性。金价上行有望得到进一步支撑。无论是当下的中东局势还是特朗普 关税政策的反复都为短期市场增加了较高的不确定性因素。而这种不确 定性下的避险情绪将为短期贵金属价格形成有力支撑。目前来看，对于 A 股的影响更多集中在风险偏好层面，中期来看，A 股市场将会回归国内 基本面及政策预期。国内两会即将开幕，A 股短期冲击幅度或小于海外， 节后复工情况、两会前后宏观政策的释放是国内投资者关 ...

投资建议 白酒：春节旺销窗口收官，结合渠道反馈，我们认为春节白酒动销整体符合市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比下滑 10~15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：1.节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回落；2.部分区域节内大众 价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近年来终端小批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌 价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧性。 从节后首周反馈来看，行业价盘整体趋稳、略好于节前市场预期，目前原箱飞天茅台批价约 1690 元、环比小幅回落。 我们认为当前已经处于行业价盘筑底窗口，酒企普遍在发力去库存、春节反馈已可见一斑。本身春节飞天茅台超预期 的动销表现已进一步维稳了渠道对行业景气度的预期、修复了渠道库存容忍阈值，间接舒缓了行业秩序压力。 我们看好当前白酒板块配置价值、低预期下胜率可观，预期先行、节后亦具备自上而下催化，例如近期上海发布《关 于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》，进一步调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策等。中期维度伴随 "反内卷"政策持续落地、企业 ROE 有望改善，并传导至企业招待等支出提升、居民收入预期改善，拐点逐步临近。 配置方向建议：1）品牌力突 ...

近年来，餐饮行业正面临"成本刚性上涨"与"品质升级需求"的结构性矛盾。中粮福掌柜与知名川菜品牌 龙人居通过联名推出"龙人居甄选"福掌柜非转基因压榨一级玉米胚芽油，展示了破解这一困境的新路 径。此次合作不仅是供应链协同的典范，更构建了一套可复制的商业模式：通过与中粮福掌柜联名定 制，餐饮企业在控制成本的同时保障品质，实现"站住脚"的生存底线与"迈开腿"的发展动能，为行业提 供了可借鉴的解决方案。 联名合作的三大价值基石：构建成本品质新平衡 餐饮企业面临的核心矛盾在于：消费者对食品安全与品质的要求日益严苛，而市场同质化竞争又迫使企 业不断压缩成本。中粮福掌柜的联名模式通过三大路径破解这一难题： 1.供应链协同：从交易关系向共生关系演进 联名合作实现了供应链的深度耦合。中粮福掌柜依托全产业链布局，与餐饮企业建立定点采购、长期稳 定的合作关系，显著降低原材料采购的中间环节成本。以龙人居为例，通过专用油供应锁定，规避了市 场价格波动风险，获得了更具竞争力的持续成本优势。这种供需两端一体化模式，将分散的采购需求集 中至中粮福掌柜供应链平台，通过规模化采购与集约化生产，为企业构筑了高性价比的运营底座。 2.渠道效能跃迁：重 ...

新年伊始，调味品行业发生了几件大事。 中炬高新拟收购四川味滋美55%的股权，花了大价钱，把川式复合调味料收入囊中；恒顺醋业推出的一款"香醋可乐"，480ml装，上线两周，据说卖出四 万多瓶；还有日辰股份，宣布拟2.66亿元投资大数据基础软件。 把这些新闻放在一起，会发现有一个共性：都是跨界。有人是花几个亿买一家公司，有人是跨出自己的舒适区，大胆尝试新领域的产品。 如果拉长时间线来看，调味品企业似乎对跨界这件事都有执念，跨领域、跨产品布局的例子已愈加频繁。但这当中，有些人是为了"去占领一个明天"，有 些人更像是在"想办法熬过今天"。 这不是调侃。调味品行业已发生过太多这样的分岔路口。今天我们想跟你聊聊，调味品企业跨界这件事，背后到底藏着什么样的心思。 都是跨界，但跨出方式不一样 先来看看调味品企业跨界，都有啥偏好？ 当然，更多人还是选择在自己熟悉的圈子里试探。恒顺做醋饮、做气泡水、做文创雪糕，海天做酱油麻薯冰淇淋，亨氏和美国的冰沙品牌合作做番茄酱冰 沙……把调味品从后厨带到前厅，从烹饪场景带到即食场景，让自己能被更多消费者看到。 △图片来源：海天公众号 赚钱肯定是第一位，所以他们往往偏爱利润更厚的生意，关注那些 ...

每经AI快讯，涪陵榨菜2月27日晚间发布2025年度业绩快报，营业收入约24.32亿元，同比增加1.88%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润约7.68亿元，同比减少3.93%；基本每股收益0.67元，同比减少2.9%。 （记者 王可然） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——2月井喷！中国AI调用量首超美国，四款大模型霸榜全球前五，国产算力需 求正经历指数级增长 ...

报告期内，为巩固成熟品类市场地位、加速新品上市与新渠道开拓，公司适度加大销售费用投入，全年 销售费用同比增长18.33%。围绕"迎新开门红""品类互动促销大会战""旺季上量活动""秋收行动"四大营 销档期，在重点市场与渠道精准开展品销联动，有效夯实品牌影响力，销售量同比增长约1500吨，达成 稳住榨菜存量市场、拓展新兴渠道、助推新品上市的战略目标。 涪陵榨菜（002507）(002507.SZ)披露2025年度业绩快报，公司营业总收入24.32亿元，较去年同期增加 1.88%;实现营业利润、利润总额、归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为9.16亿元、9.11亿元、7.68亿 元，分别较去年同期减少2.77%、3.37%、3.93%。 ...