12月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推 动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经 济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 工业生产稳定增长 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。 分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业 增长4.3%。装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，高技术制造业增加值增长8.4%，分别快于全部规模以上 工业增加值2.9和3.6个百分点。 分经济类型看，国有控股企业增加值同比增长4.2%；股份制企业增长5.2%，外商及港澳台投资企业增 长3.4%；私营企业增长3.2%。 分行业看，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租赁和商务服务业，金融业生产指数同比分别增长 12.9%、8.4%、5.1%，分别快于服务业生产指数8.7、4.2、0.9个百分点。1-11月份，全国服务业生产指 数同比增长5.6%。1-10月份，规 ...

国家统计局数据显示，11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%。从环比看，11月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.44%。1—11月份，规模以 上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进 工作总基调，深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格 继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 2025年11月份规模以上工业增加值增长4.8% 11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，11月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.44%。1—11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。 分三大门类看，11月份，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。 分经济类型看，11月份，国有控股企业增加值同比增长4.2%；股份制企业增长5.2%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长3.4%；私营企业增长3.2%。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.0% year-on-year increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points respectively [1] - The manufacturing purchasing manager index was recorded at 49.0, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] Group 2: Service Sector - The service production index increased by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services at 13.0% [2] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2, indicating stable growth expectations [2] - For the first ten months, the service production index grew by 5.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [3] - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [3] - The retail sales of basic living goods and some upgraded consumption categories saw rapid growth, with food and beverage retail increasing by 3.8% [3] Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [4] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [4] - High-tech industries such as information services and aerospace manufacturing saw significant investment growth of 32.7% and 19.7% respectively [4] Group 5: Trade and Exports - In October, the total import and export value was 37,028 billion yuan, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [5] - For the first ten months, the total trade value grew by 3.6%, with exports increasing by 6.2% [5] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.0% of total trade, reflecting a 1.9 percentage point increase from the previous year [5] Group 6: Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to October, with a slight decrease to 5.1% in October [6] - The unemployment rate for local registered labor was 5.3%, while for migrant workers it was 4.7% [6] - The average weekly working hours for employees were recorded at 48.4 hours [6] Group 7: Prices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration in inflation [7] Group 8: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation in October was stable, with ongoing efforts in transformation and upgrading [8] - Challenges remain due to external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustments [8] - Future strategies include expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment and market expectations [8]

Economic Overview - In October, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, the national economy maintained overall stability with a steady progress in development, supported by efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] Industrial Production - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 4.5%, 4.9%, and 5.4% respectively [3] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors performed well, with added value growth of 8.0% and 7.2%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points [3] - From January to October, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profit of industrial enterprises totaled 53,732 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year [3] Service Sector - The service sector production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and financial services [4] - From January to October, the service sector production index increased by 5.7%, and the revenue of large-scale service enterprises rose by 7.6% year-on-year [4] Retail Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [5] - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [5] - The service retail sector also saw a year-on-year growth of 5.3% from January to October, with notable increases in leisure and communication services [5] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [6] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [6] - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant investment growth of 32.7% and 19.7%, respectively [6] Trade and Employment - In October, the total import and export value reached 37,028 billion yuan, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [7] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to October, with a slight decrease to 5.1% in October [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing a previous decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [9] Conclusion - Overall, the national economy in October showed stable operation with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, while facing challenges from external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustments [10]

Core Insights - In October, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.17%. For the first ten months, the year-on-year growth was 6.1% [2][3][24]. Group 1: Industrial Performance - The mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 4.5% in added value, while manufacturing grew by 4.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 5.4% in October [5][24]. - State-owned enterprises reported a year-on-year growth of 6.7% in added value, while private enterprises grew by 2.1% [5][24]. - Among 41 major industries, 29 experienced year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining (6.5%), chemical raw materials (7.1%), and automotive manufacturing (16.8%) [5][24]. Group 2: Product Output - Out of 623 industrial products, 313 saw a year-on-year increase in output. Notably, automotive production reached 3.279 million units, up 11.2%, with new energy vehicles growing by 19.3% [6][24]. - The production of ethylene increased by 11.7%, while steel output decreased by 0.9% [6][24]. Group 3: Sales and Exports - The sales rate of products from industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.4%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year. The export delivery value was 1.3245 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [7][24]. Group 4: Economic Context - The overall economic operation in October was stable, with a focus on maintaining employment, enterprises, and market expectations. The industrial production index for the manufacturing sector was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - In October, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee with Xi Jinping at its core, the national economy maintained overall stability and progressed steadily, with improvements in employment, market expectations, and price levels, while promoting the construction of a unified national market and facilitating domestic and international dual circulation [1] Industrial Production - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors growing by 4.5%, 4.9%, and 5.4% respectively [2] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.0% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.2%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.1 and 2.3 percentage points respectively [2] - From January to October, the industrial added value increased by 6.1%, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.0% [2] Service Industry - The service production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year in October, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services (13.0%), leasing and business services (8.2%), and finance (5.6%) [3] - From January to October, the service production index increased by 5.7%, and the revenue of large-scale service enterprises grew by 7.6% year-on-year [3] Market Sales - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 127,916 billion yuan, growing by 9.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 103,984 billion yuan, a 6.3% increase [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [5] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [5] Trade and Exports - In October, the total value of goods imports and exports was 37,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [6] - From January to October, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 373,090 billion yuan, up by 3.6% year-on-year [6] Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1% in October, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7] - The average weekly working hours for employees were 48.4 hours [7] Consumer Prices - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [8] Overall Economic Outlook - The national economy showed overall stability in October, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, and new growth drivers continuing to strengthen [9]

Market Performance - Global equity markets experienced a broad rally, with MSCI Global up by 1.9%, MSCI Developed Markets also up by 1.9%, and MSCI Emerging Markets rising by 2.2% [4][8] - Among developed markets, the South Korean Composite Index showed the strongest performance with a gain of 5.1%, while the Australian S&P 200 had the weakest performance with a gain of only 0.3% [8] - In emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with an increase of 8.0%, while the Mexican MXX Index was the worst performer, declining by 1.0% [8] Trading Sentiment - Overall trading volume decreased across global markets, with the VIX index showing a rapid decline [19] - In terms of investor sentiment, the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks decreased to 15.8%, indicating a historical low sentiment level, while the North American sentiment index rose to 90.4%, reflecting a high sentiment level [19][26] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for the US tech sector were revised upward during the earnings season, with the S&P 500's EPS forecast for 2025 adjusted from 268 to 269 [63] - The Hong Kong market also saw an upward revision in earnings expectations, with the Hang Seng Index's EPS forecast for 2025 increased from 2059 to 2061 [63] - In contrast, the European market's earnings expectations remained flat, with the STOXX50 Index's EPS forecast for 2025 unchanged at 332 [64] Economic Outlook - Major market economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US, Europe, and China all rising [4][63] - The rise in these indices was attributed to factors such as the potential end of the US government shutdown, easing inflation expectations, and improved US-China negotiations [4] Fund Flows - The market is increasingly pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with expectations confirmed by recent economic data [46][50] - In terms of liquidity, there was a notable inflow of funds into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with a total inflow of 210 billion USD into these markets in September [55][58]

Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP for the first three quarters reached 40,721.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [1] - The primary industry added value was 64.26 billion yuan, growing by 0.9%; the secondary industry added value was 8,448.67 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 32,208.24 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in Shanghai increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with total industrial output value growing by 5.7% [2] - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transport equipment manufacturing saw a growth of 15.9% [2] - The three leading manufacturing sectors (AI, integrated circuits, and biomedicine) experienced growth rates of 12.8%, 11.3%, and 3.6% respectively [2] Tertiary Sector Growth - The tertiary sector's added value grew by 5.9%, with information transmission, software, and IT services leading at 15.5% growth [3] - The financial sector's added value reached 6,965.27 billion yuan, growing by 9.8% [3] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Shanghai increased by 6.0%, with industrial investment growing significantly by 20.3% [4] - Urban infrastructure investment rose by 11.7%, while real estate development investment saw a modest increase of 2.2% [4] Retail Market Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,302.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [5] - Categories such as sports and entertainment goods, furniture, and home appliances saw retail sales growth of 27.7%, 22.1%, and 28.2% respectively [5] Financial Market Activity - Major financial markets in Shanghai experienced a transaction value increase of 12.7%, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange seeing a 38.4% growth in securities transactions [6] - By the end of September, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 23.84 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% [6] Consumer Price Stability - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable, with an average disposable income of 69,220 yuan per capita, reflecting a 4.3% increase [7] - The average urban unemployment rate was recorded at 4.2% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the steady development and tangible results of cooperation among China, Russia, and Mongolia, with a commitment to high-quality development despite external interferences [1] - The China-Russia-Mongolia Economic Corridor has made significant progress, injecting strong momentum into regional prosperity through practical economic cooperation [1][2] - Bilateral trade between China and Russia has shown robust growth, with trade volume increasing from $69.5 billion in 2016 to $244.8 billion in 2024, averaging an annual growth rate of 17.0% [1] Group 2 - China's direct investment in Russia remains stable at over $10 billion, covering various sectors including mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, with notable growth in research and technology services [2] - Mongolia has attracted $5.44 billion in Chinese foreign investment, accounting for 16.3% of its total foreign investment, primarily in the mining sector [2] - Infrastructure connectivity along the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor has significantly improved, with national-level ports constituting about one-third of the total, and cargo volumes at key ports like Manzhouli and Erenhot exceeding 45 million tons in 2024 [2][3] Group 3 - The construction of various open platforms is progressing steadily, with over 30 special customs supervision areas established, enhancing regional cooperation [3] - The future of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is promising, with vast cooperation potential in infrastructure, energy development, modern agriculture, and digital economy [3] - There is a call for further strategic alignment, policy communication, and enhancement of both hard and soft connectivity to expand cooperation in emerging fields such as green technology and health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The national economy in August maintained overall stability and progressed steadily under the strong leadership of the central government, with a focus on implementing macroeconomic policies and promoting domestic circulation [1][9]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, with manufacturing growing by 5.7% [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry saw an 8.1% increase, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points respectively [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.4, a slight increase from the previous month, indicating a stable production outlook [2]. Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.5, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index rose to 57.0 [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 99,828 billion yuan, growing by 9.6%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 25% of total retail sales [4]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [5]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 5.1%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.9% [5]. Group 5: Trade and Exports - In August, the total import and export value was 38,744 billion yuan, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [6]. - From January to August, general trade grew by 2.2%, accounting for 63.9% of total trade [6]. Group 6: Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to August, with a slight increase to 5.3% in August [7]. - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [7]. Group 7: Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, with food prices dropping significantly [8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers fell by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [8].