（来源：吴说） Deribit 与 SignalPlus 表示，2025 年 Deribit x SignalPlus 交易大赛系列累计名义交易量超过 230 亿美元， 较 2024 年约 3 倍增长。赛事共吸引 586 名活跃交易者，DAU 最高 391，新增竞赛存款约 7900 万美 元。双方称，尽管下半年市场波动加剧，期权参与度仍提升，并计划在 2026 年继续开展相关赛事与合 作。 ...

白银（XAG/USD）在周五早盘上涨至每盎司74.10美元，当日涨幅超过3%。白银上涨主要受美联储可 能在2026年再降息两次预期支撑，同时美元承压提升了以美元计价白银对海外买家的吸引力。避险需求 在全球地缘政治紧张背景下进一步凸显，包括俄罗斯与乌克兰的新年平民袭击事件，以及美国与委内瑞 拉关系紧张。此外，中国投机性需求激增，上海期货交易所白银溢价创历史新高，全球供应紧张局面呼 应伦敦和纽约金库低库存，为白银价格提供额外支撑。 周五早盘，英镑/美元延续反弹，交投于1.3450上方。市场预计，如果新任美联储主席偏鸽派，美元可 能承压，从而为英镑提供支撑。英国央行近期将利率下调至3.75%，并表示将继续采取渐进式宽松策 略，但每次降息幅度难以预测。欧元/美元稳定在1.1750附近，市场关注欧洲即将公布的Sentix投资者信 心指数。美元/日元连续两个交易日上涨，周五早盘交投于157.00附近，延续近期升势。 UNFX1月2日讯（分析师 Stephen）新年的首个交易日，全球金融市场延续节日氛围，整体走势保持平 稳。周五欧洲早盘，美元指数在98.00上方窄幅震荡，股指期货小幅上涨0.3%至0.7%，显示投资者对整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold and other precious metals has surged to historical highs, driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and strong trading activity in the precious metals sector [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of last Friday, the London spot gold price closed at $4532.51 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of $191.45 per ounce or 4.41% since December 19 [1]. - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 exceeded market expectations, rising from 3.8% in Q2 to 4.3%, which has led to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations [3]. - The precious metals sector has seen significant trading activity, with silver prices breaking through key levels and rising over 10% on Friday, while platinum and palladium also reached new highs [1][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in Venezuela has escalated, with the U.S. seizing oil and tankers near Venezuela and increasing military presence in the Caribbean [5][6]. - In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow have heightened tensions, with ongoing discussions about peace plans that have yet to resolve key territorial issues [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term risks include potential price volatility due to thin liquidity at year-end and profit-taking by investors after recent highs [2][10]. - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices [2][11]. - The CME Group has announced an increase in margin requirements for various metal futures, reflecting concerns over current market volatility [8].

作者：叶慧雯 来源：华尔街见闻 本月，Kalshi 以 110 亿美元的估值筹集了 10 亿美元资金，其投资者阵容豪华，包括加密投资公司 Paradigm、Sequoia、Andreessen Horowitz 以及 CapitalG。 与此同时，纽约证券交易所的所有者 Intercontinental Exchange 于 10 月表示，将向 Polymarket 投资高达 20 亿美元，使该公司估值达到约 80 亿美元。这些巨额注资显示出传统金融机构与顶级风投对预测市场 作为一种新型金融衍生品交易平台的长期看好。 监管博弈与合规路径 预测市场正经历指数级扩张，迅速从边缘活动转变为数十亿美元规模的金融板块。受体育、政治及经济 指标押注的推动，该领域的月度交易量在过去两年内激增了 130 倍，标志着通过「事件合约」对公共事 件结果进行定价与交易的模式已实现结构性跨越。 据加密货币公司 Dune 和 Keyrock 发布的最新报告，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等平台上的月度押注金额已从 2024 年初的不足 1 亿美元飙升至今年 11 月的逾 130 亿美元。这一数据的剧变不仅凸显了巨量用户资金 正 ...

Group 1 - RBC Capital raised the target price for Chicago Mercantile Exchange from $282 to $295 while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] - Barclays also increased the target price for Chicago Mercantile Exchange to $219 [1] - Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced a 3% workforce reduction and the redistribution of some positions [1]

Group 1 - Trump plans to revoke Biden's executive orders signed with an automatic signature pen, claiming these documents account for 92% of Biden's total signed orders, and accuses operators of acting illegally [1] - Japan's cabinet approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 117 billion USD) for the largest economic stimulus plan post-pandemic restrictions, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new government bonds [1] - CME experienced a data center failure that caused a global disruption in derivatives trading for several hours, affecting a wide range of markets, with the interruption lasting longer than a similar incident in 2019 [1] Group 2 - South Korea's government tax revenue reached 330.7 trillion won from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with corporate tax revenue surging by 22.2 trillion won to 80.4 trillion won, benefiting from improved corporate profitability since 2024 [2] - As of the end of October, South Korea's foreign currency deposits stood at 101.83 billion USD, a month-on-month decrease of 5.26 billion USD, marking the largest single-month decline since January 2024, primarily due to corporate debt repayments and increased overseas investments by pension funds [2] - India's GDP grew by 8.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 7.4% and the previous value of 7.8%, but the fiscal deficit reached 52.6% of the fiscal year's target, highlighting the tension between economic growth and fiscal sustainability [2] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.61% to 47,716.42 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.54% to 6,849.09 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.65% to 23,365.69 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.59% to 4,256.4 USD per ounce, while COMEX silver futures surged by 6.06% to 57.085 USD per ounce, reaching a historical high [3] - The main contracts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 1.05% to 58.48 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil dropped by 0.87% to 62.32 USD per barrel [3]

Core Insights - CME Group experienced a significant disruption in trading due to a cooling system failure at a third-party data center, affecting multiple core derivative markets including forex, commodities, treasury, and equity index futures [1][3] - The trading was restored later that evening, with all markets reopening and functioning normally [6] Technical Issues - The failure was attributed to a problem with the cooling system at the CyrusOne data center, prompting CME Group's technical support to work on a resolution [3] - Similar outages have occurred at other major exchanges, highlighting a commonality in such technical failures across the industry [8] Market Impact - The incident occurred during a low liquidity period following the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., raising concerns about potential price volatility upon market reopening [10] - Traders expressed fears that accumulated orders and market sentiment could lead to a liquidity vacuum and extreme market conditions once trading resumed [10] Risk Management - Experts suggest that this incident serves as a reminder for investors to enhance their risk awareness and diversify their trading strategies to mitigate potential losses during system failures [11] - Recommendations include employing cross-market hedging strategies as a form of passive risk management during such outages [10][11] Industry Reflection - The event is seen as a stress test for the resilience of the financial market's technological infrastructure, emphasizing the need for high operational resilience in supporting trading activities [11] - The incident has prompted a reevaluation of the risks associated with over-reliance on single exchanges and the use of leverage in derivative trading [11]

每经AI快讯，11月28日，芝商所(CME)称，目前芝商所所有市场均已开放并恢复交易。 ...

【11月28日芝商所中断交易数小时后逐步恢复运营】11月28日周五，芝商所中断全球市场交易数小时 后，开始逐步恢复运营。据CME通知，用于外汇交易的电子经纪系统（EBS）于20：00重新开放，但未 透露其他受影响市场恢复运作的时间。 全天交易的外汇市场重新开市后，未出现大的波动。此次中断 时间比2019年技术错误导致的类似中断更长，突显了CME集团及其Globex电子交易平台的影响范围。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

【11月28日芝加哥商品交易所盘前跌超2%，交易因数据中心问题暂停】11月28日，芝加哥商品交易所 盘前跌超2%，报价274.73美元。 消息显示，其发言人透露，因CyrusOne数据中心冷却问题，商品期货 及期权即时交易暂停。 支援团队正全力解决问题，今早亚洲早盘交易时段，原油、棕榈油等多个合约 受影响。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...