Report Overview - The report is a daily update on global asset markets, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data, released on August 8, 2025, by the macro team of the research center [2]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields in major economies showed various changes. For example, the US 10 - year yield was 4.251 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of 0.022, a one - week change of - 0.125, a one - month change of - 0.100, and a one - year change of 0.111. Yields in other countries also had different trends over different time periods [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year yield was 3.720 on August 7, 2025. There were also changes in other countries' 2 - year yields, such as the UK, Germany, and Japan, over different time frames [3]. Exchange Rates - **Dollar vs. Emerging Economies Currencies**: The dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies changed. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.425 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.72% and a one - year change of - 3.36% [3]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates were 7.181 on August 7, 2025, with different changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies Indices**: Indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq had different performance. The S&P 500 closed at 6340.000 on August 7, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.08%, a one - week change of 0.01%, a one - month change of 0.95%, and a one - year change of 16.62% [3]. - **Other Indices**: Including Russian, Japanese, and Chinese indices, they also showed different trends over different time periods [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices, such as US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, and emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond indices, had positive changes in the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods [3][4]. Futures Trading Data Stock Index Futures - **Index Performance**: A - shares closed at 3639.67 with a 0.16% change. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [5]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比changes were provided for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500, as well as the S&P 500 and German DAX [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比changes were given for several indices [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比changes were shown for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - cap board, and ChiNext [5]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis and percentage changes were provided for IF, IH, and IC contracts [5]. Treasury Futures - Treasury futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 had their closing prices and percentage changes on August 7, 2025 [6]. - Money market rates such as R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were reported, along with their daily changes in basis points [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization has made relevant beneficiary sectors perform strongly. Current stock index valuations are still supported. For example, although the P/E ratio of CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin shoring up liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on stock indices opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a - 0.03bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 0.73bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 24.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.56 with a - 0.10bp change, and LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year Treasury bond was at 1.37 with a 0.24bp change, 5 - year at 1.57 with a - 0.49bp change, 10 - year at 1.70 with a - 0.89bp change, and 10 - year US Treasury at 4.22 with a - 1.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 1607 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 4492 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 2885 billion yuan. This week, 16632 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with maturities of 4958 billion, 4492 billion, 3090 billion, 2832 billion, and 1260 billion yuan from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, MLF a net injection of 1000 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 2300 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchases a net injection of 1880 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchases a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. There were no open - market Treasury bond transactions in July [4][5] 3.2 Stock Market - CSI 300 closed at 4103, up 0.8%; SSE 50 at 2791, up 0.77%; CSI 500 at 6303, up 0.66%; and CSI 1000 at 6787, up 0.71%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 15961 billion yuan, an increase of 975 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with communication equipment, consumer electronics, plastic products, insurance, auto parts, banking, transportation equipment, and wind power equipment sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine sector led the losses [6] - IF volume was 80521, up 4.4%; IF open interest was 255640, up 0.4%. IH volume was 40737, up 5.8%; IH open interest was 92725, up 0.7%. IC volume was 72420, down 15.1%; IC open interest was 215144, down 0.8%. IM volume was 155305, down 17.9%; IM open interest was 329938, down 2.1% [6] 3.3 Futures Market (Stock Index Futures Basis) - IF basis for the current - month contract was 7.52%, 0.00% for the next - month contract, 0.01% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.25% for the next - quarter contract. IH basis for the current - month contract was 1.74%, - 0.08% for the next - month contract, - 0.20% for the current - quarter contract, and - 0.19% for the next - quarter contract. IC basis for the current - month contract was 21.91%. IM basis for the current - month contract was 17.79%, 12.61% for the next - month contract, 11.73% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.29% for the next - quarter contract [8]

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/08/06 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/08/05 | 4.212 | 4.515 | 3.284 | 2.622 | 3.425 | 3.201 | 0.272 | 3.269 | | 最新变化 | 0.018 | 0.007 | 0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.002 | -0.005 | -0.004 | | 一周变化 | -0.109 | -0.117 | -0.079 | -0.085 | -0.092 | -0.086 | -0.075 | -0.093 | | 一月变化 | -0.189 | -0.117 | -0.080 | -0.064 | -0.111 | -0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a new wealth cycle in the capital market may have begun, driven by recent disappointing U.S. employment data and its implications for the economy [2]. Group 1: U.S. Employment Data and Market Reaction - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of market expectations, with previous employment figures revised down significantly by 90%, leading to a collapse in market confidence regarding the U.S. economy [3][6]. - Global stock markets experienced a collective plunge, with European markets dropping over 2% and the U.S. Dow Jones falling over 600 points [4][6]. - The downward revisions of employment data for June and May were drastic, with June's figures adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000 and May's from 125,000 to 19,000, indicating that only 10% of the reported data may be accurate [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The article posits that the capital markets in East Asia (referred to as "东大") are increasingly decoupling from U.S. dollar assets, allowing them to react independently to U.S. economic news [19][24]. - Despite the global panic triggered by the U.S. employment data, East Asian markets saw a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 23 points and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 225 points [16][18]. - The article emphasizes that the East Asian capital market is preparing for a potential decoupling from U.S. policies, which could lead to a unique market trajectory [20][25]. Group 3: Future Projections and Federal Reserve Decisions - The sustainability of the current market rally in East Asia is contingent upon the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts [28][30]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged from 39% to 77%, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [38]. - If the Federal Reserve chooses not to cut rates in September, it could mark the end of the current rally, while a rate cut could trigger a substantial shift of capital from dollar assets to non-dollar assets, including precious metals and East Asian markets [33][35][46].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, investment, and consumption while enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness to achieve the annual development goals and the tasks outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Stability and Growth - Focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to strengthen domestic circulation and optimize external circulation, laying a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Implement policies to stimulate private investment and enhance consumption through high-quality infrastructure projects and new policies [3][6]. - Promote the development of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and the digital economy, to drive innovation [3][4]. Group 2: Green and Coordinated Development - Advance green and low-carbon development through comprehensive carbon emission controls [4][6]. - Implement regional and urban-rural coordinated development strategies, focusing on urban renewal and rural revitalization [4][6]. - Ensure the stability of key sectors such as employment, food security, and energy supply chains [4][6]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Utilize proactive fiscal policies to support consumption and expand domestic demand, while enhancing social welfare [14][15]. - Implement measures to improve the microeconomic cycle and support traditional and emerging industries [16][18]. - Maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation and stabilize foreign trade [35][36]. Group 4: Employment and Social Security - Focus on expanding job opportunities in key sectors and encourage entrepreneurship, particularly in the digital and green economies [24][25]. - Enhance social security measures, including pension reforms and timely disbursement of social benefits [27][29]. - Promote skills training and support for various demographics, including youth and migrant workers [26][30]. Group 5: Financial Market Regulation - Strengthen market stability and enhance regulatory effectiveness to prevent risks in key areas of the capital market [40][43]. - Promote reforms to invigorate market activity and support long-term capital investment [41][42]. - Address risks associated with real estate financing and support the development of a new model for the real estate market [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The "White Paper" outlines the achievements and strategies of the Nansha development plan, emphasizing the completion of the first phase goals by 2025 and the importance of Nansha as a strategic platform for cooperation between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau [1][11]. Summary by Sections Overview of the White Paper - The White Paper consists of a main text and four attachments, summarizing the experiences and results of Nansha's development as a strategic platform over the past three years [3]. Strategic Positioning - Nansha focuses on leveraging its advantages within the Greater Bay Area, enhancing economic integration, and fostering cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [2][4]. Implementation Mechanism - The provincial, municipal, and district levels have established a collaborative decision-making and operational mechanism to support the Nansha development plan, including a leadership group and a dedicated working committee [6][9]. Key Achievements - Significant results have been achieved in various sectors, including technology innovation, youth entrepreneurship, international cooperation, and regulatory alignment [12][14][15]. Economic Impact - Nansha's GDP is projected to reach 230.13 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in the first half of 2025. The region's strategic emerging industries now account for 37.8% of GDP [18]. Future Goals - The next phase aims to enhance Nansha's role as a key hub for international shipping, finance, and technology innovation, while continuing to deepen cooperation with Hong Kong and Macau [19][20].

7 月份，投资者们纷纷涌入美国股市，使得标普500指数在一个月内创下了10次历史新高，但有一个重 要的群体却与他们背道而驰：企业高管们。据Washington Service收集的数据，上个月仅在151家标普500 指数成分公司中，有内部人员自行购入了公司股票，这一数字是至少自2018年以来的最低水平。尽管企 业内部人员在7月份的抛售行为较6月份有所放缓，但购入量的下降幅度更大，使得购销比达到了一年来 的最低水平。 与市场情绪分化 高管们的偏好下降是在股市上涨势头似乎逐渐减弱之时发生的，甚至在周五的抛售之前就已经如此。在 经历了6月份5%的涨幅和5月份6.2%的涨幅之后，标准普尔500指数在7月份上涨了2.2%。不过，这三个 月的上涨行情突然使得标普500指数估值过高，其市盈率已接近23倍(远高于10年平均值约18倍)。 因此，企业领导层采取谨慎态度(因为他们最了解自己的企业状况)这一现象，可能表明他们对自身市场 估值存在担忧，同时也担心特朗普总统实施的全面全球关税政策会对公司业绩造成负面影响。 Roundhill Investments首席执行官Dave Mazza表示："目前，企业高管们的行事方式与机构投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data and renewed trade tensions, which have shifted market sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold [1][3][4]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 180,000, leading to heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September, with two potential 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, which typically benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Recent U.S. trade policy changes, including new tariffs on exports to Canada, India, and Brazil, have further fueled risk aversion among investors, prompting a shift towards defensive assets like gold [4]. - Other precious metals also experienced gains, with silver rising 0.4% to $36.88 per ounce, platinum up 1.2% to $1,304.91, and palladium increasing 1.4% to $1,208.05, indicating a broader recovery in the precious metals market [4]. - Despite rising rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve has not provided clear guidance on future policy, with Chairman Powell stating that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing that economic data will remain a key factor in policy adjustments [4][5].

Group 1 - The futures market is the largest trading market globally, surpassing even the foreign exchange market in terms of transaction value, making it the "king" of financial products [1] - The article discusses the surface and essence of futures, their characteristics, and how they are utilized in the capital market [1]

标普500指数涨0.54%，道指涨0.06%，纳指涨0.92%，半导体指数跌1.9%。 美国商务部长卢特尼克称，墨西哥已经同意全面开放其市场。 ...