美国劳动力市场正显现降温迹象。5月非农就业预计新增13万人，虽高于象征健康劳动力市场的10万人门槛，但较4月17.7万人的增速显著放缓。周四公布的 初请失业金人数连续第二周上升，印证堪萨斯城联储主席施密德对关税政策可能推升通胀的担忧。这种矛盾的数据组合令市场对美联储政策路径产生分歧： 一方面，特朗普持续施压要求降息以应对经济放缓；另一方面，鲍威尔领衔的FOMC委员选择按兵不动，坚持"数据依赖"策略。 技术面暗藏方向选择信号。周四金价冲高后回落，以阴线收盘并跌破5日均线，显示多头动能有所衰竭。当前需密切关注10日均线3333美元/盎司支撑位—— 该位置既是周二盘中低点，也是多空重要心理关口。若有效跌破该支撑，可能引发技术性卖盘，目标直指3300美元整数关口；反之，若非农数据不及预期推 动金价重返5日均线，则有望挑战3400美元前期高点。 周五（6月6日）亚市盘中，现货黄金延续反弹态势，截至发稿报3370.50美元/盎司，涨幅0.53%。市场正屏息以待今晚20:30公布的美国5月非农就业报告，这 份数据可能成为打破黄金近期震荡格局的关键变量。当前交易逻辑呈现多重博弈特征：经济数据走弱与美联储政策预期交织，技术面破 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - On June 4, international gold prices rose significantly by 0.56%, driven by complex global economic conditions. Poor U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment figures falling short of expectations, led investors to seek refuge in gold, with prices reaching a peak of $3384.55 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its appeal [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies, which doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs on June 4, have severely impacted global supply chains, further highlighting gold's safe-haven value [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with a 77% probability for a cut in September, supported by ADP employment data and inflation pressures [1] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report on June 6, which will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [1] U.S. Dollar Index - On June 4, the U.S. dollar index exhibited a fluctuating trend, reaching a high of 99.372 and a low of 98.646, ultimately closing at 98.789 [2] - The market showed weak continuation after an initial upward movement, leading to a significant bearish close [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices on June 4 showed an overall upward trend, with a high of $3384.55 and a low of $3343.68, closing at $3372.24 [4] - The market is currently experiencing alternating bullish and bearish trends, with a focus on whether this pattern will continue [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3320-$3322, with a critical threshold at $3360 for short-term movements [5][7] Euro and U.S. Dollar Pair - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate showed an overall increase on June 4, with a low of 1.1356 and a high of 1.1434, closing at 1.1412 [7] - The market remains above key support levels, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium term [7]

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/05 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/04 | 4.356 | 4.605 | 3.203 | 2.526 | 3.490 | 3.116 | 0.211 | 3.251 | -0.100 | -0.032 | 0.014 | 0.002 | -0.004 | 0. ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Beautiful Act" proposed by President Trump may undermine the recent positive investment trends in the U.S. due to its "retaliatory tax" provisions, which could deter foreign investors from U.S. assets and make European assets more attractive [1]. Group 1: Impact of the "Beautiful Act" - The "Beautiful Act" includes a provision (Clause 899) that allows the U.S. Treasury to impose a maximum tax rate of 20% on foreign investors earning income from U.S. investments [1][5]. - The proportion of European investors in U.S. investments has increased from 15% in 2009 to 45% by the end of Q4 2024, but signs indicate a potential reversal of this trend [1]. - The implementation of Clause 899 could lead to significant tax burdens on foreign entities, potentially reaching a combined tax rate of 50% for withholding and branch profits taxes [5][7]. Group 2: European Market Performance - European investor confidence is rising, with the STOXX 50 index increasing over 10% since early 2025 and the DAX index up more than 21% year-to-date [1]. - The euro has appreciated nearly 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strengthening European market [1]. Group 3: Legislative Status - The "Beautiful Act" was narrowly passed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 215 to 214 and is currently under Senate review, with expectations for completion of the legislative process between June and July [9]. - If passed, the act is projected to generate an additional $116 billion in tax revenue for the U.S. government over the next decade [7].

土耳其市场监管机构将卖空禁令延长至7月4日。 ...

宏观面 曼哈顿国际贸易法院裁定特朗普对贸易顺差国全面加征关税 "越权" 并暂缓生效，尽管白宫上诉且欲启用其他法律工具，但已对经济造成三重冲击。企业方 面，美企因关税损失超 340 亿美元，CEO 信心指数暴跌；全球贸易伙伴反应不一，加拿大称裁决印证关税非法，欧英观望，日印仍推进对美谈判；金融市 场中，亚洲股市短暂上扬后回归，美元指数跌 0.5%，黄金成避险首选。美国经济委员会主任哈西特认为裁决会被推翻，不影响贸易谈判，而纳瓦罗 "另寻 征税途径" 的表态遭警告或加剧政策混乱。当前，美国就业市场承压，初请失业金人数超预期，企业利润大跌，经济陷入 "滞胀"。市场押注美联储降息保增 长，这与特朗普贸易政策共同影响黄金市场，关税争端上诉结果、非农数据等将决定金价走势，周五的 PCE 物价指数也备受市场关注 。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周四美元指数呈现出大跌态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至100.521的位置，最低则下探至99.189，最终以 99.331的价格收盘。回顾 周四市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线向上测试日线级别阻力位置，并且直接刺破，但是在上破后价格没有延续，反而是再度承压并持续下跌，价格最终收盘 在低 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that ultra-long-term interest rates have significantly increased [1] - The government will closely monitor financial market dynamics, including ultra-long-term bond trading [1] - The aim is to promote economic growth while implementing fiscal reforms [1] - There will be comprehensive communication with market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 据券商中国援引彭博社报道，北京时间5月26日晚间，欧盟计划"快速推进"与美国的贸易谈判，以避免跨大西洋"贸易战"，这表明双方将采取更加友好的态 度。就在几天前，特朗普刚刚批评欧盟拖延谈判进程。 欧盟发言人表示，在与美国的谈判中，欧盟提出的"零关税对零关税"提案仍在谈判桌上；据悉欧盟已计划加快与美国的谈判。关税消息是谈谈打打，打打谈 谈，市场则上蹿下跳！ 伊朗表示，已做好适当打击以色列的充分准备。不会接受暂停铀浓缩以确保与美国达成核协议的做法。 西方不再克制，德国总理默茨表示，西方国家已取消援助乌克兰武器的射程限制。 昨日俄罗斯总统普京视察库尔斯克，遭乌克兰无人机群打击，俄乌谈判难有进展。 上述个人观点，仅供参考！ 白银，不做解读，跟随黄金操作！ 美股期货，整体符合预期，当前高位震荡，且当前已经遇阻；随时可能展开下跌，5月16日已经做空；上周五下跌后反弹，关注冲高再跌。所以，持有手里 空单，预计还会有反复，接下来继续高空为主，一张多单也不要做，日内短线除外！标普短期阻力5890区域，然后59 ...

全球金融市场周一早盘呈现震荡走势，受美欧关税谈判进展影响，美股期货全线走高，而贵金属市场承 压。截至发稿，标普500指数期货上涨0.88%，道指期货涨0.74%，纳指期货涨幅达1.06%。现货黄金价 格下跌16美元至3347.58美元/盎司，加密货币市场表现活跃，比特币突破109337美元关口，日内涨幅近 2%。 最新消息显示，美国与欧盟已同意将关税谈判最后期限延长至7月9日。美国总统特朗普25日表示，应欧 盟请求，双方就关税问题进行了"非常愉快"的对话，并同意延长谈判期限。 这场贸易争端始于23日特朗普在社交媒体上的强硬表态。他声称欧盟成立的目的是"在贸易上占美国便 宜"，并威胁自6月1日起对欧盟商品加征50%关税，仅豁免美国本土生产商品。这一言论立即引发欧盟 方面强烈反应。 欧盟委员会执行副主席特雷莎·里贝拉24日明确表态："面对勒索，欧盟不会退缩。"她在布鲁塞尔强 调，欧盟不会接受损害欧洲企业和社会利益的条件，并指责美方的"恐吓行为不可容忍"。 德国经济与能源部长卡特琳娜·赖歇指出："关税冲突没有赢家。"德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜 尔25日进一步警告，若谈判破裂，欧盟将采取"坚决果断的反制措施" ...