美联储近日悄然买入436亿美元的美国国债，其中仅5月8日一天就购买了88亿美元的30年长期美债。尽管美联储并未正式称这是量化宽松（QE），但分析认 为这实则是一种"隐形宽松"。与此同时，全球央行购金需求强劲，3月全球央行购金64吨，中国购买量达30吨。今年迄今全球央行的黄金需求月均达94吨， 远超此前预计的80吨。此外，美联储的这一操作可能还利好新兴市场，尤其是资源丰富的拉美经济体，iSharesMSCI巴西ETF和iShares拉美40ETF今年已分别 涨约25.10%和24.53%。分析师认为，美联储的"隐秘动作"可能预示着市场将有大动作，黄金以及拉美市场的涨势可能进一步加速。 美联储购债的背景与影响 全球央行购金需求的强劲增长，特别是中国央行的大量购金行为，显示出市场对黄金的避险需求增加。黄金作为一种传统的避险资产，在全球经济不确定性 增加的背景下，其吸引力显著增强。 购金影响 全球央行的购金行为不仅对黄金市场产生了影响，还对相关金融市场产生了连锁反应。黄金价格的上涨不仅反映了市场对黄金的避险需求增加，也显示出市 场对全球经济前景的担忧。 新兴市场的受益与展望 购债背景 美联储近期的购债行为引发了市场的 ...

胡捷认为，当下推动人们黄金投资行为的因素主要包括两点：一方面是美元政策的调整对黄金投资市场 影响显著。如果美元降息，意味着美元的供给量增加，届时市场上会有更多投资者作为"接盘者"进入黄 金市场，而这些"接盘者"对黄金价格预期或更乐观，愿意出更高的价格购入，从而带动市场对黄金未来 价格的乐观预期，推动黄金价格上扬。 而另一方面，地缘政治冲突也是关键动因。"当世界局势因冲突而变得不稳定时，人们内心对风险的担 忧增加，此时由于黄金有着'灾难货币'的特殊属性，促使投资者出于避险心理保留更多黄金，进而增加 对黄金的需求，推动价格上涨。" 当前，不少国家的央行成为实物黄金购买的重要力量。据世界黄金协会数据，2022年到2024年，全球央 行连续三年购金量超1000吨，远超2010年到2021年间的购买量，此前的2021年，全球央行也仅购买463 吨。 胡捷直言，在一个相对和平稳定的世界环境下，央行在货币发行方面其实并不需要持有大量黄金。例 如，中国央行的黄金储备按购入价计仅占其资产负债表的1%，若按市价计算，占比也仅在5%左右，美 国央行的情况也大致相同，黄金在其资产配置中的占比仅为个位数。但出于底线思维，世界上部分央行 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Wealth gold is a unique asset that combines investment value, cultural significance, and artistic craftsmanship, making it an attractive option for investors [1][8] - As a form of gold, wealth gold retains the properties of being a safe-haven asset, particularly during economic downturns, providing stability against inflation and geopolitical risks [1][3] - The cultural significance of wealth gold in Chinese tradition symbolizes wealth, auspiciousness, and nobility, often featuring intricate designs and inscriptions that reflect deep cultural meanings [1][6] Group 2: Craftsmanship and Production - The production of wealth gold involves advanced techniques, including precision casting and intricate engraving, ensuring high-quality and aesthetically pleasing products [3][5] - Modern technologies, such as 3D printing, enhance the design possibilities of wealth gold, allowing for more complex and appealing shapes that cater to diverse consumer preferences [3][5] Group 3: Investment Value - Wealth gold serves as a hedge against inflation due to its scarcity and stability, with historical evidence showing its price appreciation during financial crises, such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis [5][6] - The value of wealth gold is influenced by various factors, including international gold market trends and geopolitical tensions, which can lead to increased demand and price surges [5][7] - Wealth gold offers good liquidity, allowing investors to easily buy and sell in regulated markets, making it a more accessible investment compared to less liquid assets [5][7] Group 4: Cultural Heritage and Innovation - Wealth gold preserves traditional cultural elements while also embracing modern design trends, appealing to younger generations through innovative aesthetics [6][7] - The market for wealth gold is expanding, driven by rising living standards and investment awareness, with increasing demand for both personal investment and cultural gifts [7][8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The wealth gold market is experiencing robust growth, but it faces challenges such as price volatility and the presence of counterfeit products, necessitating stronger regulatory oversight [7][8] - Future prospects for the wealth gold market are promising, with advancements in technology and cultural appreciation likely to enhance product offerings and investment opportunities [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, international gold prices experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of $3500 per ounce in April, followed by a rapid decline to $3160 per ounce in May, resulting in a drop of over 10% within a short period [1]. Economic Factors - Economic instability drives investors to buy gold as a safe haven, leading to price increases during poor economic data or stock market declines [3]. - Conversely, improved economic data or anticipated interest rate hikes can lead to a sell-off in gold, causing prices to drop [3]. - The relationship between the US dollar and gold prices is crucial; a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign investors, reducing demand and subsequently lowering prices [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, such as regional conflicts and trade tensions, heighten market risk aversion, prompting increased gold purchases [5]. - Once geopolitical tensions ease, investors tend to sell gold, resulting in price declines [5]. - Speculative market behavior can exacerbate price volatility, with large buy or sell orders causing significant short-term price fluctuations [5]. Investor Outcomes - Certain investor groups profited during this gold price volatility, including long-term gold investors who bought and held, central banks that increased gold reserves, and financial institutions engaging in arbitrage [8]. - Conversely, inexperienced retail investors often suffered losses due to panic buying and selling, while those using high leverage faced amplified risks, potentially leading to total losses [10]. - Gold processing and retail companies also experienced negative impacts, as declining prices reduced consumer purchasing intent, affecting sales and profits [10]. Investment Perspective - For ordinary investors, gold investment presents both risks and opportunities; long-term economic instability and geopolitical conflicts may support gold prices [11]. - However, market conditions can change rapidly, making any predictions uncertain; investors are advised to approach gold investments rationally and avoid herd behavior [11]. - Continuous learning and risk management are essential for protecting assets amid market fluctuations [11].

在货币政策方面，原本市场预期美联储可能在 7 月降息，可受中美关税休战等因素影响，降息预期推迟至 9 月，全年降息幅度预期也被下调。 这使得美元指数暴涨，创下近两个月新高，美债收益率回升，让无息的黄金资产吸引力减弱。 此前，美国关税政策反复无常，加征半导体、医药品关税的威胁与部分商品临时豁免等混乱信号，加重了市场对通胀和经济衰退的担忧，推动 黄金年内四次刷新历史高位，接近3300美元/盎司。而此次关税 "休战"，让市场紧张情绪缓和，部分资金从黄金撤离，转向风险资产，导致金 价短期内压力重重。 近期黄金市场经历剧烈波动，国际金价一度回调近3%，引发市场热议。当投资者还在为黄金牛市是否终结争论不休时，市场已悄然呈现短期 利空与长期利好交织的复杂图景。深入剖析地缘政治与货币政策的双重脉络，黄金的长期价值逻辑依然稳固，回调或为投资者提供了难得的布 局窗口。 中美达成关税 "休战" 协议，决定暂停 24% 的关税征收，保留 10% 基准税率，缓冲期 90 天。这极大缓解了贸易紧张局势，市场风险偏好迅速 回升，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力大打折扣，金价随即承压下跌，市场情绪的这一转变直接引发了金价回调。 中长期来看，若通胀持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of global investors in 2025 is on gold trading, with international gold prices surpassing $3000 per ounce for the first time this year, leading to a surge in domestic gold jewelry prices to 1007 yuan per gram, indicating a new high in gold investment enthusiasm [1] Group 1: Physical Gold - Physical gold, including gold bars, coins, and jewelry, is a traditional and stable investment method, with prices around 986 yuan per gram for investment bars and 1028 yuan per gram for branded jewelry in 2025 [3] - The advantages include tangible security in extreme risk scenarios, but investors must bear a processing premium of 5%-15% and additional costs during repurchase [3] - Suitable for risk-averse investors, with a recommended allocation of no more than 10%-20% of total assets [4][5] Group 2: Spot Gold - Spot gold, or London gold, is a high liquidity trading tool that allows leveraged trading through electronic platforms, supporting T+0 trading and profit from both rising and falling markets [6] - The main platforms have a spread of $0.2-$0.5 per ounce in 2025, offering high capital utilization but also amplifying risks [6] - Gold Rong China, a compliant platform, holds an AA license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and offers features like real-time market analysis and negative balance protection, suitable for flexible trading investors [7] Group 3: Gold Futures - Gold futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange correspond to 1000 grams of gold, with a margin requirement of 13% in 2025, where a 1% price fluctuation results in a ±8% change in margin [9] - Investors must close positions before contract expiration to avoid physical delivery, and it is recommended that funds allocated do not exceed 20% of total positions, targeting institutional investors with arbitrage and hedging experience [10] Group 4: Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs are low-threshold financial derivatives traded through securities accounts, tracking domestic gold spot prices with management fees of only 0.15%-0.6% and supporting T+0 operations [11] - Each unit corresponds to 1 gram of gold, providing strong liquidity without storage costs [11] - A diversified risk strategy suggests allocating 10%-15% of the portfolio to gold to optimize risk-return ratios, with historical data showing a 20-year compound return rate of 9.3% for long-term investments [12][13] Group 5: Paper Gold and Accumulated Gold - Paper gold allows virtual trading through bank accounts, starting from 1 gram (approximately 800 yuan), with a spread of 0.4-0.8 yuan per gram [15] - Accumulated gold supports regular investment with an annual return of 5%-9%, presenting no leverage risk, making it suitable for family asset allocation [15] Group 6: Investment Principles - The core of gold investment lies in constructing a stable portfolio through reasonable channels, whether through physical gold or compliant platforms like Gold Rong China, emphasizing risk control to seize long-term value opportunities [16] - Recommended principles include maintaining a gold allocation of 10%-20% to hedge against stocks and bonds, adopting a long-term perspective to avoid short-term speculation, and selecting tools based on risk tolerance [17]

2025年的全球经济局势动荡不安，美联储政策飘忽不定、地缘冲突成为常态，再加上美国关税政策的频繁冲击，让全球经济舞台充满了不确定 性。在这样的大背景下，黄金市场犹如一叶扁舟，在波涛汹涌的大海中起伏不定。 回顾过往非农周的行情，黄金价格波动幅度往往比平日放大2 - 3倍。2023年3月非农数据意外爆冷时，现货黄金单日振幅超过80美元，许多投 资者因单向持仓而遭受巨大损失。这种行情特性暴露了传统投资模式的短板，当市场方向与预期背离时，投资者只能被动止损或硬扛浮亏，缺 乏有效的风险对冲手段。 面对非农行情的高波动特性，万洲金业创新推出的"T + 0双向交易 + 负余额保护"交易机制，为传统黄金投资困局提供了破局之道。与实物黄 金变现困难、纸黄金杠杆缺失、期货黄金强平风险高的局限性不同，万洲金业依托MT5交易系统与自主研发的APP，采用"T + 0多空双向 + 即 时交易"的组合策略，让投资者能够在价格剧烈波动的关键时刻迅速切换方向，捕捉双向盈利机会。 4月初，美国非农就业数据公布前夕，黄金市场经历了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"之旅。现货黄金价格单日振幅超过110美元，盘中一度飙升至 3167美元的历史高点，随后又迅速回 ...

Economic Environment - The global economic landscape in 2025 is experiencing significant turbulence due to fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies [1] - Recent U.S. economic data has shown mixed signals, with March non-farm payrolls adding only 135,000 jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate remaining high at 4.1%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has seen extreme volatility, with spot gold prices fluctuating over $110 in a single day, reaching a historical high of $3,167 before settling around $3,114 [1] - The persistent weakness in U.S. retail sales and a significant drop in existing home sales by 5.9% in March to 4.02 million units, the worst level since 2009, has heightened economic outlook concerns, emphasizing gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,100 per ounce, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold as central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years [3] Investment Challenges - Traditional investment channels are struggling to cope with gold's volatility, with physical gold investments facing high storage costs and liquidity constraints, while gold ETFs have limitations in capturing profits during turbulent markets [5] - Historical data indicates that when U.S. retail sales growth falls below 1%, gold's annual volatility exceeds 25%, and the S&P 500 index faces a greater than 60% chance of decline [3] Innovative Trading Solutions - WanZhou Gold's innovative "T+0 dual-direction trading + negative balance protection" mechanism addresses the limitations of traditional gold investments, allowing investors to quickly switch positions during price volatility [7] - The negative balance protection mechanism prevents investors from incurring losses beyond their initial capital, mitigating risks associated with extreme market movements [7] - WanZhou Gold operates under a regulatory framework with client funds stored in licensed bank accounts, ensuring transparency and security, which contrasts with frequent safety issues seen in traditional platforms [7][8] Strategic Opportunities - The combination of non-farm payroll cycles and geopolitical risks transforms gold's volatility into investment opportunities, with WanZhou Gold offering a differentiated platform that emphasizes low barriers to entry, high flexibility, and strong security [8] - In a market environment characterized by potential "black swan" events in 2025, selecting a trading platform that balances tactical flexibility with strategic safety may be crucial for asset appreciation [8]

Core Insights - The current gold market is experiencing significant volatility, attracting attention from both professional and ordinary investors [1] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing due to global economic instability and policy uncertainties [3] - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, leading to a decoupling of gold prices from the US dollar [4] - The natural scarcity of gold, driven by rising extraction costs and environmental regulations, is contributing to supply-demand imbalances and pushing prices upward [7] - Investors must assess their risk tolerance and financial situation before engaging in gold investments [8] - Diversification in investment portfolios is crucial to mitigate risks associated with gold investments [9] - Gold should be viewed as a long-term value preservation asset rather than a short-term speculative opportunity [11] Economic Context - Economic fluctuations are driving investors towards gold for its stability and universal value [3] - Trade disputes and unpredictable US policies are causing market disruptions, prompting a surge in gold investments [3] Central Bank Actions - Central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on US dollar assets [4] - This trend is leading to a gradual detachment of gold prices from the dollar's movements [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The limited supply of gold, coupled with rising extraction costs and environmental compliance expenses, is creating upward pressure on prices [7] Investment Considerations - Investors should carefully evaluate their financial health and psychological readiness before investing in gold [8] - A diversified investment strategy is recommended to lower overall portfolio risk [9] - Long-term trends in gold should be prioritized over short-term market fluctuations [11]

今年一季度，全球黄金总需求创2016年以来最强劲的第一季度需求纪录。 4月30日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年第一季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》（以下简称《报告》）显 示，2025年一季度，包含场外投资的全球黄金总需求达1206吨，同比小幅上行1%，是2016年以来的同 期最高。 其中，黄金ETF需求复苏，推动一季度黄金投资需求总量增长逾一倍，达552吨，同比增幅达170%，创 下自2022年一季度以来的最高季度水平。金价涨势及关税政策的不确定性促使投资者纷纷为避险而涌向 黄金市场，进而推动全球黄金ETF加速流入，一季度累计流入量达226吨。 中国市场黄金ETF需求同步激增，一季度流入约167亿元人民币（约合23吨），创历史新高。金价的飙 升与空前的流入量推动黄金ETF资产管理总规模和总持仓双双突破历史纪录，分别达到1010亿元人民币 和138吨的高位。 值得注意的是，《报告》显示，尽管中国市场黄金ETF仅占全球市场份额的4%，但其一季度总持仓的 增长却占全球总增量的10%，这突显了国内黄金ETF市场的快速扩张以及在复杂的地缘政治和全球贸易 背景下，中国投资者对黄金ETF需求的激增。同样值得注意的是，这种强劲的 ...