1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight interest rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [4][54] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's leadership in the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system is mostly framed. The Sino - US trade deadlock may continue, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process, and China may shift its focus from stabilizing growth to adjusting the economic structure. The macro - environment is relatively favorable for risk assets such as stocks and industrial commodities, slightly favorable for precious metals, and unfavorable for government bonds. However, the A - share market has internal adjustment risks, and bonds may have periodic opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 January - August Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" boom made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened as Trump's reforms caused risks in the US, and overseas assets became more attractive. In early April, Trump's high - tariff announcement triggered a global financial tsunami, followed by a 90 - day suspension. In May, China increased counter - cyclical adjustments, and the global risk appetite gradually recovered from late April to June. Since July, global risk assets have continued to rise, and safe - haven assets have been suppressed [4][6] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's External Demand Shows Resilience but Domestic Demand Weakens Across the Board - In July, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade frictions. However, external demand remained resilient. Investment growth slowed down in multiple sectors, consumption growth declined, industrial output growth weakened, the real - estate market showed mixed signals with high inventory, prices continued to fall, CPI was stable with some fluctuations, PPI continued to decline, new social financing increased, and exports grew due to multiple factors [7][10][19] 3.2.2 New Policies Impact the US Economy into Stagflation - Trump's radical reforms have disrupted the US economic and social order. In July, US employment data deteriorated significantly, the labor participation rate decreased, the unemployment rate increased, inflation showed a complex situation with core CPI rising and some commodity inflation pressures easing, and consumer confidence was affected by trade policies [21][23][26] 3.2.3 China Increases Counter - cyclical Support Policies - In August, China adjusted real - estate policies in core cities, introduced personal and service - sector consumption loan subsidy policies. From January to July, China's fiscal stimulus was strong, but it also led to a rapid increase in the debt - leverage ratio [27][29][34] 3.2.4 The Fed Hints at Restarting the Interest - rate Cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in September. The market has high expectations for rate cuts this year. Trump is trying to increase his influence on the Fed. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut pace may slow down based on economic fundamentals, but Trump's influence may accelerate it [35][36][37] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury bond yields are expected to be weak in the second half of 2025, with a core range of 1.5 - 2% for the 10 - year bond. US Treasury bond yields are likely to remain high and fluctuate, with a core range of 4 - 5% for the 10 - year bond. The US dollar index is expected to decline first and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB exchange - rate index may be under pressure, and the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate. Global stock markets have risen this year, but the A - share market has internal adjustment risks. Commodities are likely to maintain a high - level and wide - range oscillation [42][46][51] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to August 2025, Chinese stocks, currency, commodities, and bonds had different growth rates. The international trade and monetary system restructuring and domestic liquidity environment have affected asset prices. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to over - allocate interest - rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [52][53][54]