美国前财政部长耶伦发出严厉警告，称美国民主制度正面临"致命危险"，这种制度性危机正在威胁美国经济繁荣的根本基础。 11月14日，耶伦在接受媒体采访时表示，她看到美国经济政策决策正在基于个人意愿而非规则制定。她指出，特朗普政府对法治的攻击、对美联 储独立性的威胁以及对大学的打压，正在破坏美国经济成功的制度根基。 这位曾担任财政部长和美联储主席的资深政策制定者认为，企业和个人正因担心遭到政治报复而保持沉默，这种恐惧氛围正在损害投资信心。同 时，她警告称，如果特朗普成功罢免美联储理事Lisa Cook，"这将是美联储独立性的终结"。 商界陷入恐惧沉默 耶伦指出，企业界对这些政策变化的反应揭示了一个令人担忧的现象：恐惧正在抑制正常的政策辩论。她表示： 尽管美国股市今年以来上涨15%，但耶伦认为人工智能投资热潮掩盖了真正的经济风险。她强调，制度性侵蚀的后果最终会体现在美国人的日常 生活中。 法治根基受到冲击 耶伦的担忧源于对资本主义制度依赖法治这一核心理念的深刻理解。她引用了诺贝尔经济学奖得主Daron Acemoglu和James Robinson的研究，该研 究证明"法治薄弱的社会"难以实现经济增长。 耶伦表示：在 ...

10月27日下午，以"创新、变革、重塑下的全球金融发展"为主题的2025金融街论坛年会在京开幕。中国人民银行 行长潘功胜、国际清算银行（BIS）总经理等针对货币政策、稳定币、外汇、人工智能投资热潮等问题重磅发 声。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示：中国人民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，综合运用多种货币政策工具，恢复 公开市场国债买卖操作，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，为经济回升向好和金融市场稳定运行创造良好的货币金融 环境。 中国证监会主席吴清表示：进一步提升上市公司质量，完善"长钱长投"市场生态，夯实市场稳定内在基础。稳步 扩大高水平制度型对外开放，更好统筹两个市场、两种资源。 金融监管总局局长李云泽强调：着力提升经济金融适配性，强化对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持，高效 服务现代化产业体系建设和新质生产力发展，有力支持构建新发展格局，积极推动金融服务更多更公平惠及人民 群众。 中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇管理局局长朱鹤新表示：提高开放条件下外汇监管和风险防控能力，有效防范外 部风险冲击，为促进开放合作、提升经贸韧性提供更多稳定性和确定性。 文/北京青年报记者 蔺丽爽 编辑/刘忠禹 欧洲稳定机制（ESM）总裁 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while maintaining growth rates for 2024 and 2026 at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Despite a more accommodative financial environment and limited trade shocks, the IMF emphasizes significant downside risks to global growth, particularly from escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties [1] Regional Economic Insights Latin America and the Caribbean - The growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025 has been increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, but the 2026 forecast has been lowered from 2.4% to 2.3% [2] - Mexico stands out with a growth forecast for 2025 raised from 0.2% to 1.0%, and for 2026 to 1.5% [2] - Brazil's growth forecast for 2025 is slightly up to 2.4%, but down to 1.9% for 2026, with a significant rise in debt-to-output ratio expected [2] - Argentina's growth forecast has worsened, with 2025 expectations lowered from 5.5% to 4.5% and further down to 4.0% in 2026 [2] - Inflation pressures in the region are expected to ease, with forecasts of 7.6% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, down from 16.6% in 2024 [2] Eurozone - The growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 has been raised from 1.0% to 1.2%, while the 2026 forecast has been reduced from 1.2% to 1.1% [3] - Current growth is achieved at a high fiscal cost, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 87% in 2024 to 92% by 2030, driven by increased spending in defense and infrastructure [3] - The negative impacts of protectionist measures are beginning to show, with high costs associated with trade adjustments [3] Japan - Japan's growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised from 0.7% to 1.1%, with a 2026 forecast of 0.6% [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually raise interest rates to 1.5%, which is considered neutral for the economy and aligned with inflation targets [4] - The second quarter saw an annualized GDP growth of 2.2%, supported by robust capital spending and preemptive exports by automotive manufacturers [4] United Kingdom - The UK's growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, with the same forecast for 2026 [5] - The inflation rate is expected to remain the highest in the G7 at 3.4% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, limiting the Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates [5] - Per capita GDP growth is projected to be the weakest in the G7 at 0.5% in 2026 [5] Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3% to 4%, with the same forecast for 2026 [6] - The upward revision is attributed to the faster-than-expected exit from oil production cuts, with non-oil sector growth reaching 4.8% in the first half of 2025, contributing over 55% to the overall GDP growth [7]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 855.12 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached was 859.96 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 852.21 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The key resistance level for paper gold is identified between 860 yuan per gram and 870 yuan per gram, while the important support level is between 830 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a new Federal Reserve governor, proposed aggressive interest rate cuts, supporting Trump’s policies, but faced skepticism from the market [2] - The market's skepticism stems from perceived flaws in Milan's theoretical foundations, particularly regarding the potential effects of Trump's policies on labor supply and inflation [2] - The current economic indicators, such as a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3, suggest resilience in the economy, contradicting the need for aggressive rate cuts [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight interest rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [4][54] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's leadership in the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system is mostly framed. The Sino - US trade deadlock may continue, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process, and China may shift its focus from stabilizing growth to adjusting the economic structure. The macro - environment is relatively favorable for risk assets such as stocks and industrial commodities, slightly favorable for precious metals, and unfavorable for government bonds. However, the A - share market has internal adjustment risks, and bonds may have periodic opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 January - August Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" boom made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened as Trump's reforms caused risks in the US, and overseas assets became more attractive. In early April, Trump's high - tariff announcement triggered a global financial tsunami, followed by a 90 - day suspension. In May, China increased counter - cyclical adjustments, and the global risk appetite gradually recovered from late April to June. Since July, global risk assets have continued to rise, and safe - haven assets have been suppressed [4][6] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's External Demand Shows Resilience but Domestic Demand Weakens Across the Board - In July, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade frictions. However, external demand remained resilient. Investment growth slowed down in multiple sectors, consumption growth declined, industrial output growth weakened, the real - estate market showed mixed signals with high inventory, prices continued to fall, CPI was stable with some fluctuations, PPI continued to decline, new social financing increased, and exports grew due to multiple factors [7][10][19] 3.2.2 New Policies Impact the US Economy into Stagflation - Trump's radical reforms have disrupted the US economic and social order. In July, US employment data deteriorated significantly, the labor participation rate decreased, the unemployment rate increased, inflation showed a complex situation with core CPI rising and some commodity inflation pressures easing, and consumer confidence was affected by trade policies [21][23][26] 3.2.3 China Increases Counter - cyclical Support Policies - In August, China adjusted real - estate policies in core cities, introduced personal and service - sector consumption loan subsidy policies. From January to July, China's fiscal stimulus was strong, but it also led to a rapid increase in the debt - leverage ratio [27][29][34] 3.2.4 The Fed Hints at Restarting the Interest - rate Cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson - Hole meeting hinted at a possible interest - rate cut in September. The market has high expectations for rate cuts this year. Trump is trying to increase his influence on the Fed. In 2026, the Fed's rate - cut pace may slow down based on economic fundamentals, but Trump's influence may accelerate it [35][36][37] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury bond yields are expected to be weak in the second half of 2025, with a core range of 1.5 - 2% for the 10 - year bond. US Treasury bond yields are likely to remain high and fluctuate, with a core range of 4 - 5% for the 10 - year bond. The US dollar index is expected to decline first and then rise, with a core range of 95 - 105. The RMB exchange - rate index may be under pressure, and the RMB against the US dollar may depreciate. Global stock markets have risen this year, but the A - share market has internal adjustment risks. Commodities are likely to maintain a high - level and wide - range oscillation [42][46][51] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to August 2025, Chinese stocks, currency, commodities, and bonds had different growth rates. The international trade and monetary system restructuring and domestic liquidity environment have affected asset prices. Based on the current situation, it is recommended to over - allocate interest - rate bonds and gold, moderately allocate credit bonds, blue - chip stocks, and crude oil, and under - allocate growth stocks and currency [52][53][54]