富国银行首席股票策略师Ohsung Kwon预计，若关税被裁决推翻，标普500指数成分股公司2026年的息税前利润可能较去年水平提升约2.4%。然 而，分析师也指出，即使法院裁定关税违法，白宫仍可能援引其他法律授权重新实施类似的贸易限制措施，这意味着政策不确定性将在长期内持 续存在。 市场普遍认为，短期反应路径相对明确：取消关税将减轻消费者成本压力并改善企业盈利能力，对股市构成支撑；但同时，此举会削弱政府的一 项重要收入来源，加剧联邦赤字担忧，从而对美债市场形成利空。 美国最高法院即将对特朗普推出的全面关税计划的合法性作出最终裁决，此判决结果将对美股及美债市场构成重大考验。分析师普遍预计，若法 院裁定关税违法，股市有望因企业利润预期改善而获得提振，但美债市场可能因财政赤字担忧重燃以及美联储后续政策路径更趋复杂而面临抛售 压力。 最高法院已将美东时间本周五定为意见发布日，这意味着裁决可能最早于本周出炉。自关税政策引发市场震荡以来，标普500指数已从低点反弹约 40%并创下新高，此轮涨势主要由人工智能投资热潮以及特朗普政府对部分关税的回撤所推动。 股市受益板块分化明显 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

Dollar on track for steepest annual drop for almost a decade 分析人士称，美联储降息将在2026年推动美元贬值。 美联储9月份恢复降息令美元承压 © FT montage: Getty Images/Reuters 美元正面临自 2017 年以来最大幅度的年度跌幅，华尔街银行预测，随着美联储继续推进降息， 美元明年将进一步走弱。 今年以来，美元兑一篮子主要货币已下跌 9.5%，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战引 发了人们对世界最大经济体的担忧，并使人们对美元作为投资者避险货币的传统地位产生了怀 疑。 欧元兑疲软的美元涨幅最大，飙升近 14%，超过 1.17 美元，这是自 2021 年以来的最高水 平。 华尔街银行预计，到 2026 年底，欧元兑美元汇率将升至 1.20 美元，英镑兑美元汇率将从目前 的 1.33 美元升至 1.36 美元。 荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示："美联储在全球央行中逆势而行……它仍然 处于非常宽松的货币政策模式。" 美元作为世界主要货币，其走势对企业、投资者和各国央行都产生影响。今年美元走弱对美国出 口 ...

ING首席国际经济学家James Knightley指出，美联储在全球央行中"逆势而行"，依然处于明显的宽松模 式。 基于这一预期，华尔街银行预计欧元兑美元将在2026年底前升至1.20，英镑兑美元则将从目前的1.33攀 升至1.36。美元今年的疲软虽然利好美国出口商，但对于那些在美国产生销售收入的欧洲企业而言，则 构成了业绩拖累。 美联储主席人选引发市场焦虑 在唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫执政的第一年，美元正遭遇自2017年以来最严重的年度抛售潮。 受贸易战引发的经济担忧及美联储宽松货币政策预期的双重打压，这一全球储备货币的避险地位面临严 峻考验，市场正重新评估美元在"川普2.0"时代的资产价值。 根据金融时报的数据显示，美元兑一篮子主要货币今年已大幅下挫9.5%，不仅创下近十年来最大年度 跌幅，更被德意志银行全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos形容为自由浮动汇率历史上美元表现最糟糕 的年份之一。欧元成为主要受益者，兑美元汇率飙升近14%，突破1.17关口，达到2021年以来的最高水 平。 导致美元走软的关键转折点始于今年4月，当时特朗普针对美国贸易伙伴发起了激进的关税战，尽管美 元随后收复了部分失地 ...

美元正迎来2017年以来最陡峭的年度跌幅。华尔街各大银行预测，随着美联储持续推进降息，明年美元 将进一步走弱。 今年，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普发起的贸易战引发了市场对全球最大经济体的担忧，同时也让投资者对 美元传统的避险货币地位产生质疑。受此影响，美元兑一篮子主要货币已下跌9.6%。 交易员预计，到2026年底，美联储将进行2至3次25个基点的降息。相比之下，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂 娜・拉加德本月表示，欧洲央行在维持利率不变的同时上调了增长和通胀预期，"所有政策选项都应保 留"。 华尔街银行预测，到2026年底，欧元兑美元汇率将升至1.20，英镑兑美元汇率将从目前的1.33升至 1.36。 "美联储正与全球央行的趋势背道而驰……它仍处于大幅宽松模式。"荷兰国际集团（ING）首席国际经 济学家詹姆斯・奈特利表示。 作为全球主导货币，美元的表现对企业、投资者和各国央行都有着深远影响。今年美元走弱对美国出口 商而言是一大利好，但却拖累了许多在美国市场有销售收入的欧洲企业。 在主要货币中，欧元兑美元的涨幅最为显著，飙升近14%至1.17美元上方，这一水平上一次出现还是在 2021年。 "这是浮动汇率制度史上美元表现最差的 ...

普徕仕环球投资方案主管(亚太区)兼基金经理Thomas Poullaouec及普徕仕亚洲投资委员会为亚洲投资者 发表最新的全球资产配置观点。在全球经济韧性及AI基建投资支撑下，普徕仕看好股市前景，但透过 区域资产重新配置以把握机遇及管理风险。 年初对于美国的财政赤字及债务水平的忧虑现已蔓延全球，推高长期债券收益率。日本新任首相高市早 苗推动进取财政政策刺激经济增长及国防开支，令日债收益率升至多年高位，日元转弱令日本央行正常 化步伐更添变数。投资者正审慎关注这项"财政实验"，因为日本已是全球最高债务负担的发达国家之 一，在当前借贷成本上升的环境下，继续增加债务负担将成为一项代价高昂的赌注。市场关注各国财政 扩张实验能否转化为实质经济增长，目前投资者对全球长期债券收益率仍需保持审慎。 普徕仕对美国大型股转持偏高配置，反映AI长期利好因素及大型科技股的强劲盈利动力，以及美国政 府对战略性科技产业的持续支持。虽然仍然关注美股估值偏高以及货币政策风险，但目前仍有较大的债 务融资空间，而且尚未出现实质的信贷压力。 债券方面，普徕仕维持偏低配置，因通胀及美国财政刺激措施或持续为长期利率带来上行压力。倾向短 存续期配置，对美 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: US Equity Market - **Company**: HSBC Global Investment Research Core Points and Arguments 1. **S&P 500 Target for 2026**: HSBC introduces an end-2026 target for the S&P 500 at 7,500, indicating expectations for another year of double-digit gains, similar to the late 1990s equity boom [2][5][42] 2. **AI Investment Boom**: The AI-led capital expenditure (capex) boom is expected to support the economy, with technology leading the charge. This trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, with significant spending from hyperscalers [2][14][33] 3. **Consumer Behavior**: A bifurcated consumer market is expected in 2026, with high-income consumers benefiting while low-income consumers face challenges due to inflation and policy changes. This divergence is reflected in recent earnings reports from companies like Wynn Resorts and McDonald's [3][20][25] 4. **Earnings Growth Forecast**: HSBC forecasts a 12% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, supported by macro stability and the AI investment boom. This is slightly below the consensus estimate of 13% [5][11][33] 5. **Two-Speed Economy**: The economy is expected to operate at two speeds, with strong performance in AI-related sectors contrasted by weakness in manufacturing and residential construction [4][14][20] 6. **Trade and Immigration Policies**: Trade policy headwinds are expected to moderate, while immigration challenges will persist, impacting consumer demand and labor supply. The effective tariff rate is projected to remain elevated at 16.8% [3][25][30] 7. **Market Concentration**: The market rally has been concentrated, with less than one-third of companies outperforming the index, and the top tech companies accounting for 90% of returns since "Liberation Day" [7][9][11] 8. **Valuation Metrics**: The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently at 21.7x, above 10-year highs, but justified by better profitability metrics [11][46] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Risks to the AI Boom**: Potential risks include signs of an AI bubble deflation, slower revenue growth from hyperscalers, and delays in capital deployment [15][21] 2. **Consumer Confidence Trends**: Consumer confidence is rising among high earners while declining for lower-income groups, indicating a widening gap in economic sentiment [20][24] 3. **Impact of Policy Changes**: The absence of Fed rate cuts and persistent inflation are expected to create headwinds for consumer spending, particularly affecting lower-income households [20][30] 4. **Sector-Specific Earnings Growth**: Significant earnings growth is anticipated in sectors like materials, industrials, and energy, while sectors hit by tariffs, such as autos, are expected to see a profit swing in 2026 [33][40] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the anticipated trends in the US equity market and the factors influencing them.

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that the American democratic system is facing "fatal danger," threatening the fundamental basis of economic prosperity [1] Group 1: Rule of Law - Yellen emphasizes the importance of the rule of law for capitalism, citing research by Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, which indicates that societies with weak rule of law struggle to achieve economic growth [3] - She expresses concern that economic policy decisions are increasingly based on personal will and resentment rather than established rules, leading to a lack of fair treatment and non-political enforcement of laws [3] Group 2: Business Climate - Yellen notes a troubling trend where fear is suppressing normal policy debate within the business community, with individuals and companies hesitant to express negative views due to potential political retaliation [3] - The White House responded to Yellen's concerns by highlighting perceived failures of the Biden administration, including immigration law enforcement and inflation management [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Yellen is particularly worried about unprecedented pressures on the Federal Reserve, including former President Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and attempts to dismiss Fed officials [4] - She criticizes Trump's actions as breaking long-standing norms of non-interference in monetary policy, which could undermine the Fed's mission of maximizing employment and stabilizing inflation [4] Group 4: Economic Performance and Risks - Despite Yellen's warnings, the current U.S. economic fundamentals appear strong, with robust consumer spending and a recovering economy, as evidenced by a nearly 15% increase in the S&P 500 index this year [5] - Yellen cautions that the current AI investment boom may obscure underlying risks, particularly the negative impact of repressive policies on the academic environment and the loss of scientific talent [5] - She warns that the core drivers of U.S. economic growth, such as technological leadership and entrepreneurial vitality, may face long-term threats due to these trends [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on global financial development under the themes of innovation, transformation, and reshaping [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain a relatively loose financing environment for economic recovery and financial market stability [2] - The head of the Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized enhancing financial adaptability to support strategic areas and the modern industrial system, aiming for equitable financial services for the public [2] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) highlighted the need to improve the quality of listed companies and expand high-level institutional openness to stabilize the market [2] - The PBOC's Vice Governor stated the importance of enhancing foreign exchange regulation and risk prevention capabilities to provide stability and certainty in promoting open cooperation [2] Group 2 - The IMF President stressed the need for regulators and policymakers to cautiously assess the actual productivity gains from AI while managing risks associated with crypto assets and the connections between non-bank financial institutions and the banking system [3] - The General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) called for a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure consistent and transparent oversight of systemically important financial institutions and activities [3] - The President of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) expressed a shared commitment with China towards an open, inclusive, and multilateral world, indicating broad cooperation opportunities to address global challenges [3]

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, up from 3.0% in July, while maintaining growth rates for 2024 and 2026 at 3.3% and 3.1% respectively [1] - Despite a more accommodative financial environment and limited trade shocks, the IMF emphasizes significant downside risks to global growth, particularly from escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties [1] Regional Economic Insights Latin America and the Caribbean - The growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025 has been increased from 2.2% to 2.4%, but the 2026 forecast has been lowered from 2.4% to 2.3% [2] - Mexico stands out with a growth forecast for 2025 raised from 0.2% to 1.0%, and for 2026 to 1.5% [2] - Brazil's growth forecast for 2025 is slightly up to 2.4%, but down to 1.9% for 2026, with a significant rise in debt-to-output ratio expected [2] - Argentina's growth forecast has worsened, with 2025 expectations lowered from 5.5% to 4.5% and further down to 4.0% in 2026 [2] - Inflation pressures in the region are expected to ease, with forecasts of 7.6% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, down from 16.6% in 2024 [2] Eurozone - The growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 has been raised from 1.0% to 1.2%, while the 2026 forecast has been reduced from 1.2% to 1.1% [3] - Current growth is achieved at a high fiscal cost, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 87% in 2024 to 92% by 2030, driven by increased spending in defense and infrastructure [3] - The negative impacts of protectionist measures are beginning to show, with high costs associated with trade adjustments [3] Japan - Japan's growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly raised from 0.7% to 1.1%, with a 2026 forecast of 0.6% [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually raise interest rates to 1.5%, which is considered neutral for the economy and aligned with inflation targets [4] - The second quarter saw an annualized GDP growth of 2.2%, supported by robust capital spending and preemptive exports by automotive manufacturers [4] United Kingdom - The UK's growth forecast for 2025 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3%, with the same forecast for 2026 [5] - The inflation rate is expected to remain the highest in the G7 at 3.4% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, limiting the Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates [5] - Per capita GDP growth is projected to be the weakest in the G7 at 0.5% in 2026 [5] Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 3% to 4%, with the same forecast for 2026 [6] - The upward revision is attributed to the faster-than-expected exit from oil production cuts, with non-oil sector growth reaching 4.8% in the first half of 2025, contributing over 55% to the overall GDP growth [7]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 855.12 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached was 859.96 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 852.21 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The key resistance level for paper gold is identified between 860 yuan per gram and 870 yuan per gram, while the important support level is between 830 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a new Federal Reserve governor, proposed aggressive interest rate cuts, supporting Trump’s policies, but faced skepticism from the market [2] - The market's skepticism stems from perceived flaws in Milan's theoretical foundations, particularly regarding the potential effects of Trump's policies on labor supply and inflation [2] - The current economic indicators, such as a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3, suggest resilience in the economy, contradicting the need for aggressive rate cuts [2]