（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华宝证券指出，债市方面节前或震荡偏强。当前国债收益率已接近近期低位，由于缺乏明显利空，叠 加"负债充裕、资产短缺"背景下大型银行配置需求依然坚实，以及春节前资金偏好稳健，债市预计延续 震荡格局。短期10年期国债收益率可能下破1.80%，2月波动中枢或从1.85%附近缓慢回落至1.80%左 右。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 风险提示：数据来源基金定期报告、wind，相关业绩经托管行核对，过往表现不代表未来。十年国债 ETF成立于2017年8月4日，2017年-2025年上半年净值增长率/业绩比较基准为：-1.55%/- ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share small and mid-cap stocks are currently outperforming, driven by multiple factors including improved market risk appetite and strong technical demand for oversold stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 9, the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) and CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have increased by 1.86% and 1.55% respectively, attracting significant net inflows [1]. - The CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF has a 120-day return of 11.48% and a 250-day return of 52.06%, while the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has a 120-day return of 19.55% and a 250-day return of 61.38% [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The collective strength of small and mid-cap stocks is attributed to a marginal improvement in market risk appetite, as the overall market stabilizes and previously underperforming technology stocks rebound [3]. - There is a strong technical demand for oversold small-cap stocks, which have reached historically low valuation levels, creating significant potential for technical rebounds [3]. - Expectations for supportive policies aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises, particularly those classified as "specialized and innovative," provide confidence for long-term investment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The enhanced tools represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 ETFs offer efficient and diversified options for investors looking to capitalize on the small-cap market trend [3]. - The sustainability of the small-cap rally is highly dependent on overall market liquidity, with noted volatility being higher than that of large-cap stocks, suggesting a cautious approach to investment [3].

Core Viewpoint - In early February, investors shifted from high-volatility growth sectors to more defensive sectors with stronger earnings certainty, leading to renewed interest in major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI A500, which represent core Chinese assets [1][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Inflows - The CSI 300 ETF by Huatai-PB (510300) and the A500 ETF by Huatai-PB (563360) have seen net inflows of 2.209 billion yuan and 833 million yuan respectively over two consecutive trading days since February 5, 2026 [1][4]. - The CSI 300 ETF is one of the only equity ETFs in the market with net subscriptions exceeding 2 billion yuan during the same period [1][4]. - Despite increased counter-cyclical adjustments since the beginning of the year, broad-based ETFs are attracting capital due to favorable policies and enhanced market stability, indicating their long-term investment value [1][4]. Group 2: Cost Efficiency and Management - The annual management fee and custody fee for the CSI 300 ETF and A500 ETF are 0.15% and 0.05% respectively, making them among the lowest fee levels for equity index products in the A-share market, which may help investors capture long-term opportunities in core A-share assets at a low cost [2][5]. - As of the end of 2025, the CSI 300 ETF has generated a cumulative profit of 143.5 billion yuan for its holders, while the A500 ETF has achieved a profit of 4.642 billion yuan, with the former being the only equity fund in the A-share market to exceed 100 billion yuan in cumulative profits [6]. Group 3: Management Experience and Product Range - Huatai-PB, the fund manager for the CSI 300 ETF and A500 ETF, is one of the first ETF managers in China, with over 19 years of experience in managing dividend-themed index investments, creating a diverse range of products across the Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen markets [3][6]. - The Huatai-PB Dividend ETF (510880) is the first dividend-themed index fund in the A-share market, having distributed a total of 5.18 billion yuan in dividends over its 19-year history [7].

编者按: 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济与A股走向备受瞩目。 多地把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%-5.5%，机构预测中值为4.8%，经济稳中向好态势明确。在一系列政策发力见效背景下，中国的投资有 望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲，物价水平或延续温和回暖的势头。 货币政策将继续保持宽松基调，同时在去美元化趋势不断加强的国际背景下，人民币汇率有望继续稳中走强，为A股高质量"慢牛""长牛"格局 奠定了坚实基础。 廖宗魁/文 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济能否延续2024年下半年以来的持续复苏势头，A股能否连续三年走牛，全球经济和国际市场又会如 何演进，成为当下投资者较为关心的问题。 从已经召开的地方两会看，绝大多数省份把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%—5.5%，意味着即将召开的全国两会很可能把2026年全国经济增 长目标定在5%左右。《证券市场周刊》"远见杯"宏观经济预测调查（以下简称"预测调查"）显示，机构们对2026年中国GDP增长预测中值为 4.8%，经济稳中向好的态势延续。 在一系列政策发力见效的背景下，中国的投资有望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲， ...

Core Insights - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 117 million yuan and a strong increase of 3.06% in the tracked ChiNext Index (399006) [1] - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) has experienced a substantial growth of 11.76 million shares over the past six months, with a total net inflow of 44.08 million yuan in the last four days [2] Product Highlights - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) offers several advantages: it bundles a variety of ChiNext stocks, has a daily price fluctuation limit of ±20%, requires no asset or investment duration for account opening, and allows for convenient trading like stocks [3] Industry Events - The Shanghai government highlighted its strengths in the artificial intelligence sector, including collaborative industrial clusters, large market scenarios, talent supply, and a complete financial system. Shanghai accounts for nearly 10% of the national computing power and has launched various initiatives to support AI development [4] Institutional Views - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the market remains in a high volatility state before the Spring Festival, suggesting that the next wave of market activity will likely be based on logic rather than sentiment. They anticipate a potential resurgence of technology growth stocks after the Spring Festival [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company experiences significant revenue growth driven by active trading, increased marketing efforts, and the consolidation of Maigao Securities, with a focus on financial information services and securities as dual growth engines. The acquisition of Pioneer Fund may provide new momentum for future development [1]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 144.9 yuan, corresponding to a 90x P/E for 2027. Adjusted revenue and net profit for 2025 are projected at 2.366 billion yuan and 228 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 41.01% and 118.7%. Net profit estimates for 2026-2028 are adjusted to 561 million, 981 million, and 1.38 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.92, 1.61, and 2.26 yuan [2][3]. Business Segments - The financial information services business shows steady growth, while the securities business experiences rapid expansion. Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 2.366 billion yuan, with net profit at 228 million yuan, both achieving high growth due to active capital market trading. The average daily trading volume for 2025 is expected to reach 20.003 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.07%. The securities business, particularly Maigao Securities, is expected to generate net income from commissions and fees of 505 million yuan, a 110% increase year-on-year, and net interest income of 101 million yuan, a 33% increase [3][4]. Strategic Development - The company adheres to a dual-driven development strategy focusing on financial information services and securities, aiming to create a comprehensive wealth management service platform. The active trading environment and strong demand for wealth management among residents are expected to continue. The number of active users for the securities app is projected to reach 175 million by December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.26%. The acquisition of Pioneer Fund is expected to enhance the company's wealth and asset management capabilities, contributing to a positive development trajectory [4][5].

国投白银LOF开板。 在连续5个跌停后，国投白银LOF今天（2月9日）上午复牌触及跌停后震荡走高，打开跌停板，盘中，该白银基金一度直线拉升，涨超8%。截至 上午收盘，国投白银LOF涨6.26%，成交额超过20亿元，较此前几个交易日明显放量。 近期，白银价格剧烈波动。2月2日晚间，国投瑞银基金发布公告称，经与基金托管人协商一致，决定对旗下国投白银LOF基金持有的白银期货合 约估值方法进行调整。 自2026年2月2日起，该基金将对AG2604、AG2605、AG2606、AG2608、AG2610、AG2612等白银期货合约的估值，参考估值日北京时间下午3 点国际主要市场价格，相对于前一日同期的波动幅度进行合理重估，以使基金资产估值更能反映国际市场价格变动。 国际白银市场方面，近两个交易日，白银现货持续反弹。截至发稿，伦敦银现涨超4%，站上81美元/盎司关口； COMEX白银涨超5%。 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司昨晚发布A类基金份额二级市场交易价格溢价风险提示及停复牌公告。公告称，近期，国投瑞银基金管理有限公司旗 下国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）A类基金份额（场内简称：国投白银LOF；交易代码：161226 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures LOF fund highlights the risks associated with high premium trading and speculative behavior in the market, leading to significant losses for investors [3][6][8]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Reaction - After five consecutive trading halts, the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF fund finally resumed trading on February 9, with a price increase of over 8%, closing at 3.293 yuan, a rise of 6.26% [1]. - The fund's premium rate remains above 58%, despite a more than 37% drop from its peak price of 5.427 yuan on January 29, erasing all gains since January 19 [3][4]. - The fund's one-year return soared to 263.13% by January 30, with total assets reaching 18.944 billion yuan, making it a benchmark product in the precious metals sector [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Due to high investment thresholds for silver futures and limited access to physical silver, many ordinary investors viewed this LOF as a low-barrier way to speculate on silver [4]. - The fund's strict purchase limits and eventual suspension of A and C class shares for external subscriptions created a scarcity that fueled rampant speculation, leading to a significant divergence between market price and net asset value [5]. - Despite multiple risk warnings issued by the fund company, speculative behavior continued to escalate, driven by misconceptions about scarcity and price increases [5][8]. Group 3: Risks and Market Conditions - The market experienced a severe liquidity crisis on February 2, with sell orders reaching 8 billion yuan, resulting in many investors being unable to sell their holdings [6]. - Following a drastic 31.5% reduction in net asset value, the premium rate surged to 110%, exposing the risks of the speculative bubble [6]. - The rebound on February 9 was primarily driven by short-term speculative trading rather than fundamental value, with ongoing risks in the gold and silver market remaining unaddressed [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) has shifted from net outflows to net inflows, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment and market conditions [1][5]. Fund Flow - As of February 6, 2026, the ChiNext 50 ETF has a circulating scale of 23.148 billion yuan. Over the past 60 trading days, there has been a net outflow of 3.39 billion yuan, while the last 10 days saw a net outflow of 1.04 billion yuan, and the last 5 days experienced a net inflow of 190 million yuan [1][6]. Institutional Perspectives - Industrial insights from Xinyu Securities suggest that the recent global asset adjustment is more about narrative-driven emotional digestion rather than fundamental or policy changes. The market is expected to recover due to increased event catalysts and the "Spring Festival effect" [3][8]. - The report emphasizes a shift from defensive strategies to focusing on the Spring Festival market, particularly in sectors like technology manufacturing and resource-based infrastructure, which are expected to outperform post-holiday [3][8]. - Huaxi Securities notes that despite short-term pressure on the China-US tech sector due to overseas AI expectations, a rebound in US tech stocks on February 6 may lead to a recovery in domestic related sectors [3][8]. ETF Performance - The ChiNext 50 ETF has delivered a return of 36.20% over the past three years, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 435th among 1,634 similar products. It is recommended for investors looking to access China's technology growth sector [4][9]. - Investors can trade the ETF directly through stock accounts or via linked funds, with suggestions to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to mitigate short-term volatility [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - On February 6, the A-share market saw a collective decline in the three major indices, while the stock ETF market experienced a net inflow of over 110 billion yuan, indicating continued bottom-fishing by investors [10][11]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of February 6, the total scale of 1,333 stock ETFs in the market reached 4.1 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 117.64 billion yuan on that day [2][11]. - The largest inflows were seen in broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong stock markets, with net inflows of 71.12 billion yuan and 25.18 billion yuan, respectively [2][11]. - The CSI 500 Index ETF led the inflows with 25.85 billion yuan, while the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF saw inflows exceeding 112 billion yuan over the past five trading days [2][11]. Group 2: Top ETFs by Net Inflow - On February 6, 35 ETFs had net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the top three being: - CSI 500 ETF: 22.6 billion yuan - CSI 300 ETF by Huatai-PB: 10.86 billion yuan - Hang Seng Technology ETF: 7.47 billion yuan [3][12]. - Other notable inflows included the CSI 1000 ETF and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, which saw net inflows of 6 billion yuan and 4.05 billion yuan, respectively [13]. Group 3: ETFs with Net Outflows - The gold stock ETF experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 8.12 billion yuan on February 6 [6][14]. - Other ETFs with significant outflows included: - SSE 50 ETF: -3.31 billion yuan - Food and Beverage ETF: -3.24 billion yuan - Securities and Insurance ETF by E Fund: -2.78 billion yuan [7][14]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Fund managers from E Fund and Bosera Fund expressed optimism about the market, citing favorable financial conditions for equity assets and the potential for growth in financing balances [8][16]. - They noted that the domestic macroeconomic environment is expected to maintain a trend of "steady progress," with emerging industries likely to see further development [8][16].