Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On December 25, Muyuan Foods conducted a block trade involving 1.115 million shares at a transaction value of 49.36 million yuan, representing 4.11% of the total trading volume for that day, with a transaction price of 44.27 yuan, which is a discount of 7.67% compared to the market closing price of 47.95 yuan [1]. Group 1 - The block trade on December 25 involved 1.115 million shares of Muyuan Foods [2]. - The total transaction amount for the block trade was 49.36 million yuan [1]. - The transaction price of 44.27 yuan was 7.67% lower than the market closing price of 47.95 yuan [1].

12月23日，苏丹通讯社报道，工业和贸易部长马哈欣会见动物和渔业资源部长艾哈迈德，讨论强化苏丹 畜牧业价值链相关工作。包括遏制活畜走私出口、利用屠宰厂废弃物生产沼气和电力、降低低收入人群 肉类和奶制品价格、在卡萨拉建设兽药厂、翻新位于巴克尔的阿拉伯兽药公司工厂等等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of piglets is expected to rise after the Spring Festival due to increased demand for restocking, despite current low prices and ongoing losses in the breeding sector [2][14]. Price Trends - In the fourth quarter, the average price of 7 kg piglets dropped from 220.17 CNY per head on September 30 to 165.67 CNY per head on October 17, marking a 69.92% decline from the peak of 550.83 CNY per head on April 4 [15]. - By late December, the average price rebounded to 216.92 CNY per head, but remained significantly lower than the previous year [15][19]. - The price touched a low of 290.00 CNY per head in October 2024 before rebounding, with prices mostly above 300 CNY per head in the fourth quarter [17]. Sales and Profitability - The sales of piglets have been consistently unprofitable, with an average loss of 75.98 CNY per head in the fourth quarter, which improved slightly to 58.08 CNY per head by December 22 [19]. - The breeding sector is cautious about restocking due to low price expectations post-Spring Festival and increased disease occurrences, particularly in northern regions [18][21]. Future Outlook - The demand for restocking is anticipated to increase significantly after the Spring Festival, with expectations that prices could rise to over 300 CNY per head by late February [24]. - The seasonal characteristics suggest a potential price peak of 360-400 CNY per head in the first half of 2026, driven by limited supply and increased restocking intentions [24].

生猪：极其悲观的预期，极好的入场点 20251224 摘要 当前生猪价格约为 11.5 元/公斤，受 10 个月前能繁母猪数量影响，出 栏量较高。预计到 2026 年 7 月，生猪出栏量将呈现先升后降再回升的 趋势，但市场对明年价格预期过于悲观。 市场低估了去库存的影响，数据显示每月生猪交易均重下降 1 公斤，导 致当月出栏量增加 3%。同时，新生仔猪数量自 2025 年 9-10 月开始加 速下降，预示 2026 年 3-4 月价格将迎来拐点，5 月或达 14 元/公斤。 行业自 2021 年以来处于下行周期尾声，上市公司报表显示生物资产和 固定资产均在减少。2025 年三季度，生产性生物资产和固定资产同比 均下滑 3%以上，长期产能冗余正在清理，有助于驱动可持续的价格上 行。 股票和期货市场估值反映了市场对猪价 12-13 元/公斤的一致预期。若 冬至或春节后实际价格高于预期，将证伪悲观预期并推动估值上行。推 荐优质上市主体作为投资标的。 历史数据显示，亏损通常在短期内迅速引发产能退出，单月产能退出幅 度约为 2%。当前调研显示，若亏损持续，预计 10 月和 11 月母猪区划 幅度将超过 5%，加速产能去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig industry, presenting fundamental data, market information, and trend strength, indicating that the speculative demand for pigs has been realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,780 yuan/ton, up 50 year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100; Guangdong spot price is 11,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. Futures prices for pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton (up 55), 11,480 yuan/ton (up 65), and 11,985 yuan/ton (up 50) respectively [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Pig 2601 trading volume is 4,890 lots, down 792 from the previous day, with an open interest of 21,478 lots, down 1,773. Pig 2603 trading volume is 64,490 lots, up 8,060, with an open interest of 161,915 lots, up 62. Pig 2605 trading volume is 13,800 lots, up 4,573, with an open interest of 82,431 lots, up 420 [3] - **Price Spreads**: Pig 2601 basis is 480 yuan/ton, down 5 year - on - year; pig 2603 basis is 300 yuan/ton, down 15; pig 2605 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, unchanged. Pig 1 - 3 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10; pig 3 - 5 spread is - 505 yuan/ton, up 15 [3] 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025, including Yunnan Shennong (85 lots on Dec 4), Guizhou Fuyuan (23 lots on Dec 5), Dekang (225 lots on Dec 10, 150 lots on Dec 11), Yangxiang (40 lots on Dec 10), COFCO (300 lots on Dec 15), and Muyuan (40 lots on Dec 23) [4] - The Ministry of Commerce determined that imported related pork and by - products from the EU are being dumped [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 消费有所支撑，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11480元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.57%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.80元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.12元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+320，较前交易日变动+55；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.92元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH03+440，较前交易日变动-5；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+310，较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测，12月24日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.33，比昨天下降0.19个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.24，比昨天下降0.22个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.35元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；牛肉65.86 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉63.16元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.43元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；白条鸡17.85 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...

Core Insights - The average price of live pigs in China has shown an upward trend, with the standard weight average price at 5.80 yuan per jin, reflecting an increase of 0.02 yuan per jin compared to the previous day [3] - There are 22 regions experiencing price increases, while no regions reported declines, and 6 regions remained stable [3] - The lowest recorded price for live pigs is in Xinjiang at 5.2 yuan per jin, while the highest is in Hainan at 6.9 yuan per jin [3] Regional Price Trends - In the Northeast region, the mainstream price for standard pigs is between 5.5 and 5.6 yuan, with some areas seeing increases [4] - In Henan, the price for pigs has risen by 0.1 to 0.2 yuan, with other large-scale farms following suit [4] - Guangdong prices remain stable, while Guangxi has seen a rebound of 0.1 yuan, and the Southwest region is also showing a slight increase [4] - There is an increasing demand for pigs, particularly for medium to large-sized pigs, indicating a potential tightening in supply [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Short - term long [1] - Pig: Hold [1][3] - Egg: Hold [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot price fluctuates due to seasonal selling pressure and farmers' reluctance to sell. In the medium - term, the upside of the spot price is limited. In the long - term, the pricing logic is substitution and planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, the pig price is slightly stronger. In the medium - term, the supply will increase before March next year and decrease after April. In the long - term, the supply pressure will exist before September next year and may weaken after that [1][3]. - Egg: In the short - term, the spot price is weak and stable. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. In the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [3]. Summary by Variety Corn Market Conditions - Yesterday night, the corn futures fluctuated narrowly. The 2603 contract rose 0.09% and closed at 2193 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - Deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices were weakly stable. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2122 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in North China was 2280 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - Port prices were weakly stable. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2235 - 2240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and at Shekou Port, the bulk grain transaction price was 2380 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - On December 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 486 to 51763 [1]. - On December 24, China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales of 153 tons were all sold, and the purchase plan of 17.3 tons had a transaction volume of 9.2 tons with a transaction rate of 53% [1]. Trading Strategy - Maintain an interval trading strategy in the medium - and long - term. For the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190, and if it holds, short - term long opportunities can be considered. The short - term resistance is at 2215 - 2230 [1]. Pig Market Conditions - Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated strongly. The 2603 contract rose 0.88% and closed at 11480 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The national average pig price was 11.54 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning pig price today is expected to vary in different regions [1]. - In October 2025, the number of sows was 39.9 million, below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1]. - From January to September this year, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July), indicating an increase in pig slaughter before March next year. In October, it decreased, so the supply pressure will ease after April [1]. - As of December 18, the average slaughter weight was 124.47 kg, up 0.09 kg from the previous week [1]. - On December 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.37 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [1]. - On December 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 863 [1]. Trading Strategy - The 2603 contract should maintain an interval trading strategy. For far - month contracts, trade the difference in the de - capacity expectation driven by policies. If the sow inventory continues to decline, long opportunities after September next year can be considered [3]. Egg Market Conditions - Yesterday, egg futures contracts all rose. The 2602 contract rose 2.29% and closed at 2947 yuan/500KG [3]. Important Information - The egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.89 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The inventory increased slightly. The average production - link inventory was 1.14 days, up 0.01 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, unchanged [3]. - The average price of old hens was 3.87 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. As of December 18, the weekly culling age was 486 days, unchanged [3]. - In November, the number of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 5.30%. The estimated number in December is 1.345 billion, a 0.52% decrease [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see. For the 2602 contract, the resistance is at 2970 - 3000, and for the 2603 contract, it is at 3000 - 3040. Focus on whether the low - price - driven culling can last and start the de - capacity process [3].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia's Balinyouqi is promoting industrial agglomeration and full industry chain upgrades in livestock farming, leading to increased income for herders and supporting rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Livestock Industry Development - The region has implemented measures such as improving forage quality and enhancing meat cattle and sheep breeds to boost the livestock industry [1] - The Darhan Street's sheep industry park has achieved a lambing rate increase of over 30% through advanced breeding techniques and training for local farmers [1] - The park has a stable annual stock of 22,000 sheep and an annual output of 50,000 sheep, generating a total annual output value of 69 million yuan [1] Group 2: Cattle Farming Innovations - The Amuguleng family ranch has transitioned to higher-performing Simmental cattle, resulting in significant income increases through standardized breeding practices [2] - The ranch currently has about 120 quality Simmental cattle, producing an average of 40 calves annually, with market prices for calves reaching approximately 6,800 yuan for heifers and up to 9,000 yuan for bulls [2] - The success of the ranch has inspired neighboring herders to adopt similar practices, leading to improved income through livestock structure adjustments [2] Group 3: Forage and Breeding Strategies - Balinyouqi is actively developing the forage industry to support the meat cattle and sheep sectors, with plans to reach over 500,000 acres of artificial forage by 2025 [3] - The region aims to optimize its cattle stock to 300,000 by the end of 2025, with a stable breeding cow population of 160,000 and an annual output of over 100,000 cattle [3] - In sheep farming, the region is focusing on high-reproduction and fast-growing breeds, with a current sheep stock of 2.5275 million and a good breed coverage rate of 90% [3]

Core Insights - Livestock farmers in Jinghe County are proactively preparing for winter by stockpiling various types of feed and repairing warm housing facilities to ensure the safety and health of their livestock during the cold season [1][3] Group 1: Feed Preparation - Farmers are taking significant measures to ensure adequate feed supply, with one farmer, Orenba, storing over 200 tons of silage, 4,000 bales of alfalfa and corn stalks, and 30 tons of cottonseed hulls and cake for the winter [1] - Another farmer, Amanbek Burishan, has accumulated a substantial amount of silage and alfalfa, with an investment of approximately 180,000 yuan in feed reserves, which will last until May of the following year [2] Group 2: Self-Sufficiency and Cost Management - Farmers are focusing on self-sufficiency by growing their own alfalfa, which is high in protein and nutrition, thus reducing costs and ensuring quality [1][2] - Amanbek Burishan has cultivated 50 acres of silage and 40 acres of alfalfa, significantly increasing his self-sufficiency rate and lowering feed costs [2] Group 3: Housing and Infrastructure - The construction and repair of warm housing for livestock are critical, with farmers emphasizing the importance of proper shelter to protect animals from cold weather and reduce disease risk [2] - Warm housing facilities are being built to accommodate up to 50 cattle, ensuring that livestock are kept warm and healthy during harsh winter conditions [2] Group 4: Overall Preparedness - Livestock farmers in Jinghe County have completed their winter preparations, including feed storage and housing repairs, to ensure a safe winter for their livestock and to enhance productivity for the upcoming year [3]