Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) is in a volatile market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. The probability of price increases materializing is uncertain, and it is necessary to focus on whether msk will open bookings this week and the potential for other shipping companies to adjust freight rates in late October after the holiday [9][11]. - The supply - side capacity shows different trends in different months. The demand - side lacks a solid foundation for price increases in the spot market, and there are significant differences in the loading performance among shipping companies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - EC2510 closed at 1,139.0, down 1.86% with a trading volume of 22,035 and an open interest of 32,431, a decrease of 3,095. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.68, compared to 1.09 the previous day [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1,777.0, up 1.74% with a trading volume of 19,314 and an open interest of 21,695, a decrease of 1,300. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.89, compared to 1.02 the previous day [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1,685.0, up 2.26% with a trading volume of 6,466 and an open interest of 8,768, an increase of 59. The trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.74, compared to 0.63 the previous day [1]. Freight Rates - The SCFIS European route index was 1,254.92 points, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,193.64 points, down 11.6% week - on - week [1]. - The SCFI European route was $971/TEU, down 7.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route was $1,460/FEU, down 10.8% bi - weekly [1]. Spot Freight - The 40 - 41 week list price center dropped to the range of $1380 - 1420/FEU, and the corresponding SCFIS index was about 960 - 1000 points (±30 points). Some shipping companies have announced price increases in late October, with Maersk offering the lowest price of $1800/FEU and COSCO the highest of $3000/FEU [9]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index was 98.20, and the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [1]. 2. Capacity - In September, the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 6, and the weekly average capacity remained at 29.6 million TEU/week. In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down to 26.5 million TEU/week. In November, the weekly average capacity was 30.8 million TEU/week, with the number of blank sailings remaining at 5 and the number of pending sailings increasing by 1. The November weekly average capacity was +9.4% year - on - year and +16.1% month - on - month [11]. 3. Macro News - On September 29, US President Trump was optimistic about reaching a Gaza cease - fire agreement and would meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework [8]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, Trump will impose a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and related products, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture [8]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers including multiple price increase announcements, high operational space for shipping companies such as speed reduction and suspension of voyages, and the long - term agreement signing season from December to January. However, the economies in Northwest Europe are deteriorating and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts 12 and 02 are already high, and it is not recommended to chase the high prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Contract 04 currently has a high valuation, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, but attention should be paid to the low liquidity which may cause short - term fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Information - For EC2510, the closing price was 1139.0, with a decline of 2.90%, a basis of 115.9, trading volume of 22035, and open interest of 32431 with a decrease of 3095 [1] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1777.0, a decline of 0.34%, a basis of - 522.1, trading volume of 19314, and open interest of 21695 with a decrease of 1300 [1] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1685.0, a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 430.1, trading volume of 6466, and open interest of 8768 [1] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1268.6, a decline of 1.28%, a basis of - 13.7, trading volume of 1657, and open interest of 9099 with an increase of 142 [1] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1483.5, an increase of 0.08%, a basis of - 228.6, trading volume of 97, and open interest of 938 with a decrease of 14 [1] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 638.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 27.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 77.8 [1] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 92.0, with a day - on - day increase of 5.1 and a week - on - week increase of 11.7 [1] 3.2 Spot Index Information - The SCHIS SCFI (European line) index was 1254.92 points on September 22, 2025, a decrease of 12.87% from the previous period and 8.06% from two periods ago. The price was 971 dollars/TEU on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 7.70% from the previous period and 8.84% from two periods ago [1] - The CCFI index was 1401.91 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 4.69% from the previous period and 4.31% from two periods ago [1] - The NCFI index was 614.14 points on September 26, 2025, a decrease of 8.83% from the previous period and 7.65% from two periods ago [1] 3.3 European Line Quotation Situation - For week 39 (end of September), the average quotation was 1600 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1500 US dollars (later increased to 1570), PA Alliance quoted 1550 - 1600 US dollars, and OA Alliance quoted 1600 - 1720 US dollars [3] - For weeks 40 - 41 (beginning of October), the average quotation was 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1400 US dollars, PA quoted 1300 - 1500 US dollars (YML's 1300 US dollars was the lowest price of the year), and OA quoted 1400 - 1600 US dollars [3] - For week 42, MSK's opening quotation was 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period), and other shipping companies successively announced post - holiday price increases to 2000 US dollars [3] 3.4 Related News - On September 29, Trump claimed that the Middle East peace agreement "will surely be reached". He will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday to finalize the agreement framework [4] - On September 28, Hamas stated that it had not received a new cease - fire proposal, and the Israel - Palestine negotiations were at an impasse [4] - On September 28, the Israeli Defense Minister said that it would not stop military operations in the Gaza Strip [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haixia Co., has implemented emergency measures in response to Typhoon "Bolaoi," ensuring the safety and needs of stranded drivers and passengers during the storm [1][3]. Group 1: Emergency Response - Haixia Co. initiated a "Warm Heart Escort" emergency plan to safeguard stranded drivers and passengers as Typhoon "Bolaoi" impacted operations [1]. - A dedicated service team was formed to provide support to stranded individuals, delivering 1,281 care packages to truck drivers and passengers [3]. - The service team also addressed concerns regarding the resumption of ferry services and provided a "One-stop Customs Clearance Guide" to facilitate efficient post-typhoon operations [3]. Group 2: Operational Preparedness - The company is closely monitoring weather conditions 24/7 and has all staff on standby to expedite the resumption of ferry services [3]. - Passengers are advised to purchase tickets in advance and for truck drivers to make reservations, with a recommendation to arrive at the port two hours before departure to avoid inconvenience [4]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to prioritizing the needs of the public and ensuring safe and smooth travel for all passengers and drivers [4].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Transport and six other departments have jointly released the "Implementation Opinions on 'Artificial Intelligence + Transportation'" aiming to establish a series of landmark innovative projects by 2027, with "smart shipping" being one of the seven key scenarios [1] - Xingtong Shipping Co., leveraging its leading position in coastal bulk liquid hazardous goods transportation, is accelerating its entry into the "AI + shipping" industry by focusing on AI technology development [1][5] Group 2 - Xingtong Shipping has developed the first data asset benchmark in the hazardous goods transportation industry, with its "Ship Operation Efficiency Analysis Dataset" certified by the Fujian Intellectual Property Protection Center, aligning with the call for high-quality data set construction [2] - The company has implemented the "AI-Xingzai" shipping model based on the DeepSeek API, achieving digital transformation across business knowledge management, vessel scheduling, and fleet operation management [3] Group 3 - Xingtong Shipping has collaborated with Wuchang Shipbuilding to create China's first 25,900-ton methanol dual-fuel stainless steel chemical tanker, "Xingtong Hailion," which integrates intelligent navigation and energy management systems [4] - The "Xingtong Hailion" series of smart vessels represents a key initiative in the company's development strategy and a practical response to the national call for "AI + transportation" [4][5] Group 4 - The global shipping industry is undergoing a critical digital transformation, supported by national policies that provide strong momentum for high-quality development [5] - Xingtong Shipping is transitioning from a traditional shipping leader to a smart shipping pioneer, aiming to deepen the integration of "AI + shipping" and expand its long-term growth potential [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The gold market has strong performance, with prices hitting new highs, and the silver increase is greater than that of gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. The short - term gold price is expected to run at a high level with increased volatility [3][14]. - The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building. After adjustment, the bond market valuation is gradually reasonable. The bond market will gradually desensitize to negative factors and return to fundamental trading [16]. - The demand for动力煤is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [4][19]. - The iron ore price is expected to continue the box - type shock, and the trend market needs to wait. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [29]. - The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [33]. - The coking coal and coke market shows different trends between spot and futures before the festival. The spot price rises due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures are worried about post - festival demand and show a shock trend [34]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. - The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [40][41]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. - The red date futures price has risen sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [47]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. - The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [52]. - The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [54]. - The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [56]. - The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [59]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [62]. - The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [64]. - The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. - The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [67]. - The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [68]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [70]. - The container freight index fluctuates greatly before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [72][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is cautious about the prospect of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believes that decisive action is needed to cut interest rates. The US 8 - month core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12][13][14]. - The gold price fluctuated and closed higher on Friday, hitting a new high. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals were strong, and silver rose more than gold. The market focuses on the US government shutdown risk and Trump's tariff risk. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on the same day [16]. - Some institutions may choose to hold cash for the holiday due to concerns about the new regulations on public bond funds. However, the impact is limited. The treasury bond futures are in the stage of shock bottom - building, and it is recommended to take a shock approach in the short - term [16][17]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (动力煤) - Some coal mines stopped or reduced production at the end of the month, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream only maintained rigid demand procurement, and the port coal price stagnated and declined this week [18]. - The demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain near the long - term agreement price. Attention should be paid to coal supply policies [19]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The construction of the Simandou project has made breakthroughs, and the equipment production and shipment are advancing simultaneously [20]. - The iron ore price is in a shock market, and it is expected to continue the box - type shock. Attention should be paid to the demand for finished products after the National Day and the changes in coal supply policies [22]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From September 1 to 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 4.14% month - on - month [23]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decline in September, and the inventory - building pressure will slow down significantly. It is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [23][24]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the week of September 24, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.1039 million tons, a decrease of 5.44% from the previous week [25]. - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 3 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operation. The sugar production in Xinjiang is expected to be about 700,000 tons [26]. - The market expects that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil will increase by 15% year - on - year in the first half of September. The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and there may be a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [28][29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The CCI in India may purchase cotton without limit due to the low cotton price. The new cotton in India has been on the market, and the cotton price in the northern region has dropped by about 5 - 6% in the past two weeks [30]. - The export signing volume of US cotton decreased in the week of September 12 - 18, and the shipment volume increased. The external cotton market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the domestic new cotton harvest will face challenges in downstream demand. The market pressure in the fourth quarter is large [32][33]. 2.6 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. Before the festival, the coking coal market showed different trends between spot and futures. The spot price rose due to pre - festival stockpiling, while the futures were worried about post - festival demand and showed a shock trend [34]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (豆粕) - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume in China will be 9.42 million tons in October, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans is expected to be 9.49 million tons, 8.5 million tons, and 8 million tons from October to December respectively [35][36]. - The supply and demand of豆粕is weak, and the future price is mainly driven by policies. Attention should be paid to the USDA quarterly inventory report, South American weather and Sino - US relations [38]. 2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased to 2.42 million tons. The inventory of five major varieties decreased slightly this week, and the demand for building materials increased seasonally, but the demand elasticity is not optimistic. The steel price has limited upward space and needs to pay attention to the callback risk. It is recommended to take a light - position shock approach before the festival [39][40][41]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on September 22 were - 55 yuan/ton, - 179 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and - 82 yuan/ton respectively [42]. - The starch price difference may be undervalued, and there may be a safety margin for widening at low prices [43]. 2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of September 25, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 26.01 days, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous week [44]. - The medium - term view of玉米is bearish, and the 11 - contract may decline more than the 01 - contract after the National Day [44]. 2.11 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market fluctuated slightly. The futures price of red dates rose sharply, and it is recommended to operate short - term. Attention should be paid to the development of jujube fruits in the production area and downstream consumption [45][47]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Times stopped production on September 25 and is expected to resume production in November. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially put into operation [48][49][50]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in the long - term under the pressure of inventory - building at the end of the year, but the decline space is limited in the peak season before the actual resumption of production [50]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.63/ton. The lead price is expected to remain in shock in the short - term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [51][52]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On September 26, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $39.84/ton. The zinc price decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities [53][54]. 2.15 Energy Chemical Industry (PX) - A refinery in the northeast plans to shut down its reforming unit for about 10 days starting from September 27. The PX price will be in shock adjustment in the short - term [55][56]. 2.16 Energy Chemical Industry (PTA) - The negotiation in the PTA spot market weakened, and the basis loosened. The PTA price is in a shock trend, and it is recommended to adopt a band strategy [57][59]. 2.17 Energy Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - On September 26, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price is limited [60][62]. 2.18 Energy Chemical Industry (Paper Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The paper pulp market is expected to be in a weak shock [63][64]. 2.19 Energy Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market was weakly sorted. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [65]. 2.20 Energy Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly consumption of styrene's main downstream products decreased by 4.46% from the previous week. The fundamentals of苯乙烯are weak in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to whether the sentiment can be boosted [66][67]. 2.21 Energy Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - On September 26, the price of soda ash in the South China market remained stable. The soda ash price is recommended to be shorted at high prices, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [67][68]. 2.22 Energy Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - On September 26, the price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting on soda ash 2601 [69][70]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight) - The EU's shipping fuel regulations have "killed" the demand for methanol - powered ships. Before the festival, the container freight index fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [71][72][73].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Port Investment Group (四川港投) has established itself as a key player in supporting the open economy of Sichuan province, leveraging its logistics and trade capabilities to enhance the province's connectivity and trade efficiency in the context of national strategies like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [11][12][13]. Group 1: Company Development and Achievements - Sichuan Port Investment Group has been recognized as one of the top 500 Chinese enterprises, with 17 companies from Sichuan making the list in 2025 [11]. - Since its establishment, the asset scale of Sichuan Port Investment Group has doubled, and it has maintained its position as the leading provincial enterprise in foreign trade for three consecutive years [12]. - The company has developed nearly 50 direct shipping routes to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, and operates over 6,000 cross-border truck services [12]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a "one carrier, four platforms" development strategy, focusing on building a comprehensive logistics and trade service platform [11]. - Sichuan Port Investment Group has invested in the construction of the Chengdu South Collection and Distribution Center, aiming for an annual output value of 10 billion yuan and an import-export volume of 2 billion yuan [12]. - The company has established a multi-modal transport digital platform that has reduced cargo matching time from days to minutes, cutting logistics costs by 15% to 30% [12]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Logistics Network - Sichuan Port Investment Group has become the main force in water transport construction in the province, accounting for over 70% of water transport investment and 90% of container throughput [11][12]. - The company is actively developing a multi-dimensional transportation network that integrates rail, road, and air transport, enhancing the logistics capabilities of Sichuan [12]. - The company has built a comprehensive logistics data interaction system, utilizing AI and big data to optimize logistics operations [12][13]. Group 4: Social Responsibility and Innovation - Sichuan Port Investment Group has been recognized for its contributions to social responsibility, including helping underdeveloped areas and promoting sustainable practices [13]. - The company has initiated innovative projects such as a zero-carbon smart logistics park, which aims to reduce carbon emissions significantly [13]. - Sichuan Port Investment Group is committed to integrating logistics with technology and finance, creating a new model for the logistics industry [13].

Core Insights - The "Istanbul Bridge" cargo ship has embarked on the inaugural voyage of the world's first Arctic container fast route between China and Europe, marking a significant milestone in the development of the "Ice Silk Road" initiative [3][4][5] - This new Arctic route is expected to reduce shipping times by approximately 10 days and costs by around 35% compared to traditional routes, providing a strong supplement to existing maritime transport channels between China and Europe [4][5][6] Summary by Sections Inaugural Voyage - The "Istanbul Bridge" departed from Ningbo Zhoushan Port on September 23 and is scheduled to arrive at the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe, on October 11, with a transit time of only 18 days [4][5] - The ship will also visit Rotterdam and Hamburg before concluding its journey in Gdansk, Poland, on October 16 [4] Route Significance - The Arctic Northeast Passage, approximately 2,700 nautical miles (about 5,000 kilometers) long, is the shortest maritime route between Russia's Far East and Europe, significantly shortening shipping distances by over one-third [3][4] - The route is particularly beneficial for high-value industries, such as lithium battery storage and electric vehicle components, allowing for better quality control due to reduced transit times [5] Geopolitical Context - The opening of this route is seen as a response to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions, particularly between China and the West, and is expected to deepen economic ties between China and major European economies [5][9] - The Arctic route is viewed as a safer alternative to traditional shipping lanes, avoiding regions prone to piracy and geopolitical risks [9] Future Prospects - Experts suggest that as climate change continues to open up the Arctic, the potential for increased shipping through this route could reshape global trade patterns, with estimates indicating that 10%-30% of cargo could eventually shift to the Arctic route [4][6][9] - However, challenges remain, including limited infrastructure in the Russian Arctic and the seasonal nature of the route, which currently only operates from July to November [6][7]

Group 1 - The "CM HONG KONG" vessel is the world's first 9300CEU methanol dual-fuel powered ro-ro ship, marking a significant advancement in shipping technology [1][3] - The vessel can switch between fuel oil and methanol, achieving over 70% emissions reduction when using green methanol [3][4] - The ship's maiden voyage will execute a route from China to Europe, highlighting its role in promoting green shipping practices [3][6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and environmental protection in shipping, aligning with national and local emission reduction goals [3][4] - Hong Kong has already supplied over 130,000 tons of green marine fuel from February to mid-September this year, supporting the development of a green fuel ecosystem [3][4] - The "CM HONG KONG" vessel is expected to make six round trips to Europe annually, transporting nearly 60,000 vehicles, and will also serve Southeast Asia routes, enhancing China's automotive exports [6]

集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡市 观点 对于2512合约，欧线的季节性特征不容忽视，但相比去年，今年旺季12月也存在2个利空因素：①2026年春节偏晚或导致货量峰值较去年有所延后，船司出于 保长协的目的，或将年底的签约期后移到 12 月下旬；②运力过剩压力逐年加大，运价中枢相较上半年下移或是大概率事件；故2512合约不宜过分高估。预计2512合 约在1550-1800点之间宽幅震荡，我们倾向于单边观望，等待11月停航力度给出进一步指引。 对于2602合约，2026年春节较 2025 年春节晚半个月（2025年是1月28日，2026年是2月17日），历史上春节较晚的年份（如2010、2015、2018 年），02合约 不一定贴水12合约，12和02的相对估值高低暂时难以看清。 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年9月28日 综述 01 | 策略 | 单边：暂无； | | --- | --- | | | 套利：中长期关注02-04 正套和 12-04 正套逢低做阔的机会。 | | | 国庆假期 ...

新华财经天津9月28日电（记者 李亭）记者从天津国际贸易与航运服务中心获悉，2025年第39周（9月22日—26日），中国北方内外贸海运价格的风向标 ——天津航运指数快速下跌后企稳，最终收于943.02点，相比9月19日（第38周最后一个发布日）累计下跌10.83点，累计跌幅1.14%。 北方国际干散货运价指数（TBI）窄幅震荡。9月22日至24日（周一至周三），煤炭及粮食市场运价持续小幅下跌后企稳，金属矿石市场运价震荡走低后小 幅反弹，带动TBI最终收于1128.47点，相比9月19日累计下跌3.50点，累计跌幅为0.31%。 沿海集装箱运价指数（TDI）明显上涨。其中，出港运价指数本周保持平稳。进港运价指数止跌反弹，累计上涨5.04%，带动TDI收于935.51点，相比9月19 日累计上涨21.01点，累计涨幅为2.30%。 天津航运指数由天津国际贸易与航运服务中心发布，发布时间为每个工作日，指数样本范围覆盖27条连接天津港、青岛港、曹妃甸港与世界港口的国际航 线，也包括天津港和中国主要港口的内贸海运航线。该指数以2010年7月16日为基期，基期指数为1000点。 编辑：郭洲洋 天津国际贸易与航运服务中心 ...