国内地产明确定调，地缘风险再度上行 —— 宏观周报（2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日） 2026 证 1 证 4 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 宏观动态报告 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证010-8092 -7606 证zhaohonglei _yj@chinastock.com.c n 证证证证证证证证S0130524060005 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130525060002 研究助理：薄一程、吴佳文 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，高频数据显示Q4有效需求不足持续挤压企业盈利空间。人民币升值或暂时接近到位，此前年底结汇需求集中释放使人民 币汇率明显升值，但央行或开始有意控制汇率升值幅度，中间价破7仍需企业套保率及跨境人民币结算占比进一步提升，预计明年中 后期大概率时机成熟。 海外方面，日本央行议息会议后，近期植田和男称正稳步接近2%通胀目标，将继续加息。美国Q3经济增速超预期，其中过半为个人 消费支出项所贡献，抵押贷款利率的高位回落对地产的传导仍有时滞，但是能显著影响当期消费。 资产方面，A股权益市场配置行情延续，但短期波动或将加剧。过去两周处于海外市场交易清淡期，但静极思动，新年过后外部扰 动或将加大。目前美元兑日元仍高于155，一旦日本央行干预汇市或美联储降息预期降温，海外市场仍将对国内权益资产造成阶段扰 动。 国内方面， 1）高频数据显示2025年四季度以来有效需求不足正在持续挤压企业盈利空间，导致"以价换量"边际效应锐减。11月当月 工业企业利润增速仍在负区间运行，并且跌幅较上月再度扩大了7.6个百分点。2）人民币升值或暂时接近到位。临近年底结汇需求 集中释放推动人民币汇率明显升值 ...

行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国公布的 11 月就业与通胀数据整体偏弱，美联储降息预期重新发酵打压美 元指数并刺激贵金属市场，近期贵金属价格仍然易涨难跌；广期所对铂钯期货实 施交易限额风险管理措施，意在为近期飙升的工业贵金属市场降温。总体看在美 联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金属板块将继续偏 强运行，建议投资者继续持偏多思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者适当降低仓位 规模，关注美国经济就业通胀形势对美联储降息预期的影响。 | 表1： | 国内贵金属行 ...

受此提振，黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格大幅飙升，锡、铜、铝等工业金属亦表现强势。上周LME铜、铝、 铅、锌、锡价格变化为2.8%、2.4%、0.9%、-2.1%、5.1%。 A股贵金属板块走强，白银有色冲击涨停，湖南白银、西部黄金、紫金矿业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金跟涨。矿业 ETF（159690）涨2.19%。 消息面上，美国11月CPI超预期降温，令市场对美联储2026年降息幅度有所上修。具体看，美国11月CPI同比下行 至2.7%，低于预期的3.1%，通胀低于预期，2026年美联储2次25BP的降息路径有望更清晰，货币流动性持续改 善。 12月22日，现货黄金再创历史新高，日内涨幅扩大至1%，COMEX期金涨约0.6%。 中信建投指出，一面是充裕的流动性，一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。另外，基础原 材料对经济发展的重要性越来越被相关国家重视，甚至启用关税的手段获得这类产品，加剧了市场的区域性缺 口，进一步推动价格的上行。 矿业ETF（159690）跟踪的中证有色金属矿业指数覆盖工业金属、贵金属、能源金属、小金属等细分行业，一篮 子配置特性能够有效分散单一品种的价格波动风险。此外，在能源转 ...

国内方面，政治局会议和中央经济工作会议明确来年的经济结构方向，内需重 点在释放服务消费活力、持续推升全要素生产率、随着新旧动能切换适度推进 化解地产与地方债务风险。 海外方面，美联储 12 月 FOMC 虽兑现降息，但市场预期 Q1 降息暂停、技术 性扩表期限与规模也极为有限。19日日本央行行动成为短期关键。除日本外， 交易员也开始押注欧洲央行加息，若未来 1 个月美国与非美货币政策反差加 大，亦将加剧海外资产波动。 还需一点催化剂 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 资产方面，12 月 19 日日本央行大概率落地加息，基于流动性扩张及美元贬值 推动的国内外权益行情仍需等待，预计 2026 年 1 月中下旬美股或重拾升势。 国内资产端短期或可逐步看好红利，1 月中下旬可重新布局恒科，随后转向国 内科技、港股创新药。近期离岸人民币升值与美联储降息、季节性结汇以及中 美贸易缓和等因素有关，结汇激增能否触发港股乃至 A 股转强仍需观察整体宏 观形势。去年 9 月、今年 2 月的脉冲行情过后，恒科均出现了 4 个月的休整 期，今年 9 月休整后，亦有望 ...

Core Insights - The event focused on the analysis of monetary liquidity in the real world, highlighting the complexities of monetary operations involving central banks, banks, and various economic entities [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Liquidity Analysis - Wang Jian shared insights from his book "Essentials of Chinese Monetary Fund Analysis," emphasizing a multi-layered analysis framework that includes base money, broad money, and data application [2]. - The analysis framework constructed by Wang aims to track the actual flow and derivation effects of funds, addressing issues such as the phenomenon of "money in the system but not flowing" [2]. Group 2: Financial Data and Economic Trends - Sheng Songcheng analyzed the relationship between financial data and the real economy, noting improvements in China's financial statistical system, particularly the adjustments made to M1 statistics to better reflect consumption and spending [3]. - The revised M1 statistics showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in December, indicating a recovery in corporate demand deposits and a gradual improvement in consumer spending [3]. Group 3: Efficiency of Monetary Policy - Zhao Xijun discussed the declining efficiency of M2 in mediating GDP growth, highlighting that the amount of M2 required to achieve GDP growth has significantly increased over the years [4]. - The current M2 statistics do not adequately reflect the structural changes in the monetary mediation function, necessitating improvements in the monetary statistical system [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Dynamics - Wu Ge emphasized that monetary policy should prioritize total volume over structural aspects, as current financing growth heavily relies on government bonds, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [5]. - He advocated for a shift in monetary control from quantity-based to price-based approaches, integrating interest rate mechanisms and the velocity of money into liquidity analysis [5]. Group 5: Evolution of Monetary Concepts - Zeng Gang explored the need to refine the concept of money and the measurement of liquidity, suggesting that current liquidity analyses often rely on stock measures that may not accurately reflect real conditions [6][7]. - He proposed that monetary policy should shift focus from quantity to price to better understand economic dynamics and enhance policy effectiveness [7].

Group 1: Core Views - The growth of the Chinese capital market is seen as a significant turning point, with the long-term bull market being recognized as a national will and officially included in macroeconomic regulation [1][2] - The long-term bull market requires a supportive economic fundamental and monetary liquidity environment, as well as a conducive regulatory and social perception environment [1][3] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals for the Bull Market - A bull market cannot be solely based on high GDP growth; it must also ensure that the growth translates into returns for investors [2][3] - The technological revolution, particularly in artificial intelligence, is expected to drive economic growth and support a long-term bull market, with significant investments needed to close the gap in computing power between China and the US [2][3] Group 3: Interaction Between Capital Market and Real Economy - A long-term bull market must interact positively with the real economy, enhancing valuations for innovative companies and facilitating the exit of sunset industries [3][4] Group 4: Monetary Liquidity Conditions - Continuous deflationary pressures necessitate a loose monetary policy, which will support the bull market and help combat deflation [4][5] - The improvement in monetary liquidity since the central economic work conference has been notable, with M1 growth indicating potential stock market performance [4][5] Group 5: Interest Rate Policies - Significant interest rate cuts can alleviate the financial burden on households, businesses, and the government, potentially leading to increased consumption and investment [5][6] - The current interest rate levels in China still have room for significant reductions, which could further stimulate the economy and the stock market [5][6] Group 6: Strategic Planning for Capital Market Development - A strategic vision is essential for the capital market to thrive during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a target for market capitalization to GDP ratio reaching international averages [7][8] - The shift in asset allocation from real estate to stocks and funds, along with the increase in long-term funds, could lead to substantial inflows into the stock market, significantly increasing market capitalization [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the British pound is more significantly affected by large capital flows compared to the Japanese yen or euro, exhibiting price volatility that is unexpectedly high [1][3] - Morgan Stanley's analysts found that the pound's liquidity is lower, making it less effective at absorbing large market capital flows, which can lead to greater price fluctuations [1][3] - The report highlights that capital flows play a crucial role in currency exchange rate movements, challenging the traditional view that these movements are primarily driven by cross-border trade [3] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Bank for International Settlements, the euro and yen account for approximately 31% and 17% of currency trading, respectively, while the pound accounts for about 13% [1] - The analysis suggests that trading location and timing can significantly impact the price levels of the pound, particularly during late trading sessions in London [3] - The findings are based on trading costs derived from hypothetical client orders placed in the exchange market, collected during peak liquidity periods in the forex market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The legalization of stablecoins in the U.S. through the "Genius Act" is seen as a strategic move to enhance the liquidity of the dollar and potentially increase its dominance in the global market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Legitimization - The "Genius Act" passed by the U.S. House of Representatives signifies the formal acceptance of stablecoins, moving them from a gray area to a regulated status [1][3]. - The act is interpreted as a tool for the U.S. to solidify the dollar's supremacy and ensure its share in global dollar payments [5][6]. Group 2: Liquidity Implications - The relationship between the dollar and stablecoins suggests that one dollar can generate multiple dollars in purchasing power through the issuance of stablecoins [24][28]. - The potential for stablecoins to create a multiplier effect on the dollar's purchasing power could lead to a significant increase in liquidity, estimated to reach $4 trillion from a stablecoin market of $2 trillion within three years [42]. Group 3: Impact on Monetary Policy - The introduction of stablecoins may allow the U.S. government to bypass traditional monetary policy mechanisms, effectively creating a "shadow central bank" that operates similarly to the Federal Reserve [31][40]. - The shift in the issuance of currency from the Federal Reserve to stablecoin issuers could lead to a scenario where stablecoins replace the dollar, diminishing the need for the Federal Reserve's involvement [39][40]. Group 4: Market Effects - The influx of liquidity from stablecoins is expected to impact asset prices significantly, potentially leading to bubbles in dollar-denominated assets [48][50]. - The U.S. government's strategy of leveraging stablecoins for debt issuance may have long-term implications for global capital markets, particularly for countries reliant on dollar transactions [46][47].