Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue a volatile upward trend in July, supported by policy initiatives and the upcoming mid-year performance disclosures [2][9] - The market is characterized by a strong performance in black metals and banking stocks, while sectors like semiconductors and military stocks are experiencing pullbacks, indicating sensitivity to short-term gains and fund flows [2][9] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating, while the black metal and banking sectors provided support [4][9] - The overall market sentiment was moderate, with a total trading volume of 13,770 billion, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,454.79 points, down 0.09% [5] Sector Analysis - The steel industry saw significant gains, driven by positive macro signals from the June PMI data and upcoming industry meetings aimed at addressing challenges and setting goals for the second half of the year [6][9] - The photovoltaic equipment and other renewable energy sectors are active, with expectations for technical rebounds and sustained demand driven by global carbon neutrality goals [7][9] - The marine engineering equipment sector experienced a surge, supported by government policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the marine economy [8][9] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. Stocks with expected strong mid-year performance, focusing on those with improving fundamentals [3][10] 2. Technology sectors including military, robotics, AI, semiconductors, and digital economy, with a caution against speculative investments [3][10] 3. Stocks in the renewable energy and brokerage sectors that are poised for rebounds after recent declines [3][10]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周三两市主要指数走势分化，价值类指数强势整理，成长类指数调整，光伏板块涨 | | | | | 幅居前。两市成交额 1.37 万亿元，整理缩量。中证 1000 指数收 6309 点，跌 64 点， | | | | | 跌幅-1.01%；中证 500 指数收 5892 点，跌 41 点，跌幅-0.70%；沪深 300 指数收 3943 | | | | | 点，涨 1 点，涨幅 0.02%；上证 50 指数收 2722 点，涨 4 点，涨幅 0.18%。行业与 | | | | | 主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是钢铁 ETF、光伏龙头 ETF、建材 ETF、煤炭 ETF、科创新能 | | | | 源 | ETF，跌幅居前的是创新药 ETF 富国、航空航天 ETF、5G 通信 ETF。两市板块指 | | | | | 数中涨幅居前的是海洋经济、普钢、光伏设备、水泥、BC 电池指数，跌幅居前的是 | | | | | 地 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the low-radiation glass sector leading the gains. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3456.15 points, up 0.04%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 10431.03 points, up 0.18%; and the ChiNext Index was at 2130.74 points, up 0.33% [1] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Premier Li Qiang will attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro from July 5 to 8 and will visit Egypt from July 9 to 10 [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a primary regulatory task, aiming to create a better environment for high-quality capital market development [2] - A new policy in Guangzhou will initiate "commercial to public loans" when the personal housing loan rate is below 75%, with measures to control risks as the loan rate approaches 90% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, completing the annual allocation of 800 billion yuan [2] Industry Developments - The Shanghai superconducting material and headquarters base project, with an investment of 2.5 billion yuan, has officially commenced construction, marking the largest project in the superconducting field globally [3] - Luxshare Precision announced plans to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] - Hainan Highway announced plans to acquire a 51% stake in Jiaokong Petrochemical, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [6] - Tianqi Materials has filed a lawsuit against Yongtai Technology for commercial secret infringement, with expected economic losses of 887 million yuan [7] Company Performance - Zongshen Power expects a year-on-year net profit growth of 70% to 100% for the first half of the year; Jihong Co. anticipates a 55% to 65% increase; and Menohua expects a 143% to 175% rise in net profit for the same period [7] International Market Insights - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 up 0.47% and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, both reaching new closing highs, while the Dow Jones dipped slightly by 0.02% [7] - The U.S. ADP employment report showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs in June, contrary to expectations of an increase of 98,000 jobs [8] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.1% to $67.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 3% to $69.11 per barrel [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with strong performance in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, steel, cement, and coal, while communication equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer electronics lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding the path of potential rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed signs of adjustment, with the majority of Federal Reserve members expecting a rate cut later this year, while the U.S. economy remains robust [2] - Domestic manufacturing PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, reflecting resilience in the Chinese economy [2] - Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to significantly impact individual stock performance, reinforcing the importance of earnings in market dynamics [2]

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3455 | -0.09 | 3.21 | -0.03 | | 深证综指 | 2065 | -0.67 | 4.72 | 0.64 | | 风格指数 | 昨日表现 | 1 个月表现 | 6 个月表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （％） | （％） | （％） | | 大盘指数 | 0.02 | 2.41 | 3.19 | | 中盘指数 | -0.66 | 4.62 | 3.23 | | 小盘指数 | -0.88 | 4.13 | 8.62 | | 行业涨幅 | 昨日涨 | 1 个月涨 | 6 个月涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 渔业 | 12.06 | 13.98 | 12.73 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 4.05 | 3.96 | 8.23 | | 光伏设备Ⅱ | 3.73 | 9.82 | -7.86 | | 特钢Ⅱ | 2.68 | 4.02 | 8.4 ...

2025 年 07 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 111 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 快递行业深度报告：末端降本三阶段，无人车打开新空间--行业 PPT 报告 一级市场项目进展顺利，二级市场收益承压--资产配置报告 草甘膦价格上涨，关注农药市场修复机会--行业动态研究 光伏设备行业深度报告：叠层钙钛矿：从 0 到 1，超越β——基于技术、设备及投资视角--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、快递行业深度报告：末端降本三阶段，无人车打开新空间--行业 PPT 报 告 分析师：祝玉波 S0350523120005 联系人：史亚州 S0350124060026 一、末端降本背景：转运规模效应递减，末端降本空间大 1、快递价值链拆分：在行业价格下行背景下，成本控制直接决定盈利能力，且在转运成本降幅逐渐收窄的背 景下，末端成本管控成为网络竞争力关键。 2、降本看末端：以加盟制快递圆通速递为例，2024 年相比 2013 年，运输/操作/网点中转/面 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing significant sector rotation despite the index showing a narrow range of fluctuations, indicating underlying volatility [1] - The banking sector has played a stabilizing role in the market, contributing positively to the index performance [1][2] - The implementation of policies aimed at reducing internal competition has provided new market excitement, particularly in industries facing price declines [1][3] Group 2 - The photovoltaic equipment industry is reportedly reducing production by 30%, which may help balance supply and demand, leading to price stabilization [2] - The steel industry, characterized by low profit margins and some companies operating at a loss, is also showing signs of recovery, potentially influenced by the positive sentiment from the photovoltaic sector [2][3] - Other sectors such as coal, building materials, and real estate are also experiencing upward movement, suggesting a broader market recovery [2] Group 3 - The current market conditions suggest limited downside risk for the index, with structural opportunities remaining evident [3] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance companies, have been crucial in stabilizing the index during downturns [4] - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing stocks that have recently surged, as some sectors may experience corrections [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight fluctuation on July 2, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,454.79 points, down 0.09%[9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,412.63 points, down 0.61%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.13%[9] - Total trading volume for both markets was 1,405.4 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[9] Sector Performance - Strong performers included photovoltaic equipment, steel, cement, and coal industries, while communication equipment, semiconductors, aerospace, and consumer electronics lagged[4] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 14.20 times and 38.60 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation compared to the past three years[4] Economic Insights - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, with consumption and investment as key drivers[4] - Long-term capital inflows are increasing, with steady growth in ETF sizes and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support to the market[4] Investment Strategy - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on stocks with better-than-expected mid-year performance and reasonable valuations[4] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in banking, photovoltaic equipment, food and beverage, and resource sectors[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances[5]

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - On the day, 37 stocks were listed on the institutional leaderboard, with 9 stocks seeing net purchases and 28 stocks experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional purchases were: Anglikon (¥115 million), Feiyada (¥69.19 million), and Xinhenghui (¥45.41 million) [1] Group 2: Anglikon Company Overview - Anglikon saw a net purchase of ¥115 million from 7 institutions [3] - The company is currently developing an innovative drug project, ALK-N001, which received clinical trial approval on April 2025 and is in Phase I clinical trials [3] - The National Medical Products Administration has approved ALK-N001 for clinical trials in advanced solid tumors, showing significant tumor suppression effects in various models and good safety profiles, indicating strong innovation and development potential [3] Group 3: Marine Economy and Deep-Sea Technology - The Chinese government emphasizes the high-quality development of the marine economy, aiming for a unique path towards maritime strength [4] - The 2025 Government Work Report first mentioned "deep-sea technology," aligning it with emerging industries like commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, indicating a commitment to developing deep-sea technology with a market capacity in the trillion-yuan range [4] - The deep-sea technology industry is expected to accelerate its development, supported by continuous policy initiatives and financing opportunities [4] Group 4: Polysilicon Market Insights - Polysilicon futures saw a limit-up increase of 6.99% [5] - Discussions on production cuts are ongoing to control supply and enhance demand, which is expected to stabilize silicon material prices for healthy industry development [5] - The approval of the "Three Norths" photovoltaic desertification planning is anticipated to drive an additional photovoltaic installation scale of 253 million kilowatts, with an average annual increase exceeding 50 GW, primarily impacting next year [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed pattern on July 2, with a total of 60 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and the overall success rate of limit-up stocks was 79% [1] - The focus of the market was on several strong-performing stocks, including Zhejiang Dongri in the brain-computer interface sector, which achieved its 7th limit-up in 12 days [1] - The marine economy sector performed notably well, with stocks like Shenwater Haina and Kelaite reaching their limit-up, while the aquaculture sector saw multiple stocks, including Guolian Aquatic and Zhangzidao, also hitting limit-up [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic equipment sector received a net inflow of 4.491 billion yuan from main funds, ranking first among all industries [2] - Traditional industries such as steel, food and beverage, and energy metals also attracted significant attention from funds [2] - In contrast, the semiconductor sector faced a net outflow of 6.792 billion yuan from main funds, along with other tech sectors like communication equipment and software development experiencing outflow pressure [2]