期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观年报 新质生产力加速培育 内需民生政策精准发力 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 中央经济工作会议 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 | | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 提振消费、城乡居民增收、 | 提振消费、提高投资效益、扩 | 新质生产力、现代化产业体系 | 科技创新现代化产业，数字经 济、人工智能，创业投资、股 | | | ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 444,035 billion yuan from January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% (on a comparable basis) [1] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 5.3% year-on-year [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry was 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry totaled 162,243 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry was 273,022 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.3% [3] Secondary Industry Breakdown - Industrial investment in the secondary industry grew by 4.0% year-on-year [4] - Mining investment increased by 4.0%, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [4] - Investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry surged by 10.7% [4] Tertiary Industry Insights - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the tertiary industry fell by 1.1% [4] - Notable growth in pipeline transportation investment at 16.8%, water transportation at 8.9%, and railway transportation at 2.7% [4] Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment declined by 6.6%, central region by 1.7%, western region by 0.2%, and northeastern region by 14.0% [4] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [5] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises fell by 2.2% [5] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 14.1% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main economic indicators in November 2025 further declined, with the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods all showing a downward trend. However, the month - on - month growth rate of industrial added value increased, and the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment narrowed. [1][2] - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market. The expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. In the long term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but attention should be paid to the structure. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On December 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for November 2025, including the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size of 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to November of 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November of 1.3%. [1][6][9] Comment Scale - above industrial production: year - on - year growth rate decreased but month - on - month growth rate increased - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from October. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.44%, an increase from October. [2][6] - Among the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rate of the mining industry increased, while those of the manufacturing industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased. [2][6] January - November fixed - asset investment: cumulative year - on - year decline widened, but the month - on - month decline in November narrowed - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, with the decline widening. The month - on - month growth rate in November was - 1.03%, with the decline narrowing. [2][13] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment from January to November all decreased, and the year - on - year growth rates of the three sub - items in November were all weak. [17] Total retail sales of consumer goods: year - on - year growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the seasonal average - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, a decrease from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%, weaker than the seasonal average and lower than the same - period levels in 2023 and 2024. [2][18] - The year - on - year growth rates of different types of consumer goods all decreased in November compared with the previous month. [2][18] Bond Market Views Interest - rate bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation. The short - end yield has fluctuated little and declined steadily, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on an upward trend, and the Treasury bond yield curve has steepened significantly. [3][22] - With the current loose capital situation and the weak fundamental trend, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market, and the expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. [3][22] Convertible bonds - Since the beginning of 2025 (as of December 12), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 16.5%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index was + 21.8%. The performance of the convertible bond market was weaker than that of the equity market. [3][31] - Against the background of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market is stronger than the supply and difficult to change, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long term, and more attention should be paid to the structure. [3][31]

据国家统计局，11月份，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中 央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统 一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继续改善，新 质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上 全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮 产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤， 增长1.2%。粮食播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长 0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1%。 二、工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快 11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长0.44%。分三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比 增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增 ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to November 2025 reached 444,035 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% (on a comparable basis) [1] - Private fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] Investment by Industry - First industry investment totaled 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Second industry investment amounted to 162,243 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.9% [3] - Third industry investment reached 273,022 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3% [3] - Within the second industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining investment also increasing by 4.0%, manufacturing investment rising by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 10.7% [3] - In the third industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1%, while pipeline transportation investment grew by 16.8%, water transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway transportation investment rose by 2.7% [3] Regional Investment Trends - Investment in the eastern region declined by 6.6%, while the central region saw a decrease of 1.7%, the western region experienced a decline of 0.2%, and the northeastern region faced a significant drop of 14.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2%, and foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment dropped by 14.1% [3]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to November 2025 reached 444,035 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [1][15] - Private fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1][15] - In November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.03% month-on-month [1][15] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry was 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3][17] - Investment in the secondary industry totaled 162,243 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% [3][17] - Investment in the tertiary industry was 273,022 billion yuan, showing a decline of 6.3% [3][17] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining investment also increasing by 4.0%, manufacturing investment rising by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 10.7% [3][17] Infrastructure and Regional Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the tertiary industry decreased by 1.1% [3][17] - Investment in pipeline transportation grew by 16.8%, water transportation by 8.9%, and railway transportation by 2.7% [3][17] - Investment in the eastern region declined by 6.6%, the central region by 1.7%, the western region by 0.2%, and the northeastern region by 14.0% [3][17] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment fell by 2.6% [3][17] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2% [3][17] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 14.1% [3][17]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 444,035 billion yuan from January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [1] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 5.3% year-on-year [1] - In November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 1.03% month-on-month [1] Investment by Industry - Primary industry investment totaled 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Secondary industry investment was 162,243 billion yuan, increasing by 3.9% [3] - Tertiary industry investment reached 273,022 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3% [3] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining investment up by 4.0%, manufacturing investment rising by 1.9%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 10.7% [3] - In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Pipeline transportation investment grew by 16.8%, water transportation investment increased by 8.9%, and railway transportation investment rose by 2.7% [3] Investment by Region - Eastern region investment declined by 6.6% year-on-year [3] - Central region investment fell by 1.7% [3] - Western region investment decreased by 0.2% [3] - Northeastern region investment saw a significant decline of 14.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [3] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises fell by 2.2% [3] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment experienced a substantial decline of 14.1% [3]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 444,035 billion yuan from January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [1][4] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 5.3% year-on-year [1][5] - In November, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 1.03% month-on-month [1] Investment by Industry - Primary industry investment totaled 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Secondary industry investment was 162,243 billion yuan, increasing by 3.9% [3] - Tertiary industry investment reached 273,022 billion yuan, declining by 6.3% [3] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining and manufacturing investments increasing by 4.0% and 1.9% respectively [3][5] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw a significant investment growth of 10.7% [5] Investment by Region - Eastern region investment decreased by 6.6% year-on-year [3] - Central region investment fell by 1.7% [3] - Western region investment declined by 0.2% [3] - Northeastern region investment experienced a sharp drop of 14.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [3][5] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises fell by 2.2% [5] - Foreign enterprises' fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 14.1% [3][5]

分三大门类看，11月份，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长4.3%。 11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，11月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.44%。1—11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。 分经济类型看，11月份，国有控股企业增加值同比增长4.2%；股份制企业增长5.2%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长3.4%；私营企业增长3.2%。 分行业看，11月份，41个大类行业中有30个行业增加值同比增长。其中，煤炭开采和洗选业增长7.5%，石油和天然气开采业增长5.1%，农副食品加工业增 长1.7%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业下降0.6%，纺织业增长1.8%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长6.7%，非金属矿物制品业下降1.8%，黑色金属冶炼和压延 加工业增长0.9%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长4.8%，通用设备制造业增长7.5%，专用设备制造业增长4.8%，汽车制造业增长11.9%，铁路、船舶、航空 航天和其他运输设备制造业增长11.9%，电气机械和器材制造业增长4.4%，计算机、通信和其 ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to November 2025 reached 444,035 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% [1][4] - Private fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1][5] Investment by Sector - Primary industry investment totaled 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3][5] - Secondary industry investment was 162,243 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.9% [3][5] - Tertiary industry investment amounted to 273,022 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.3% [3][5] - Within the secondary industry, industrial investment grew by 4.0%, with mining and manufacturing sectors increasing by 4.0% and 1.9% respectively [3][5] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a significant investment increase of 10.7% [3][5] Infrastructure and Regional Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the tertiary sector decreased by 1.1% [3][5] - Investment in pipeline transportation grew by 16.8%, while water transportation and railway transportation investments increased by 8.9% and 2.7% respectively [3][5] - Investment in the eastern region declined by 6.6%, the central region by 1.7%, the western region by 0.2%, and the northeastern region by 14.0% [3][5] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises decreased by 2.2% [3][5] - Foreign enterprises experienced a significant decline in fixed asset investment, down by 14.1% [3][5]