Group 1 - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) has created a favorable foreign trade environment for enterprises, with a significant increase in the issuance of certificates of origin, reaching 1,421 certificates valued at 1.22 billion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] - The tariff reduction policies under CAFTA have enabled Hainan enterprises to expand their foreign trade markets, with the certificates of origin becoming a "golden pass" for exporting rubber products and chemicals to ASEAN countries [1] - Hainan Yusheng Trading Co., Ltd. has benefited from the issuance of certificates, achieving zero tariffs on many products, which has significantly enhanced their international competitiveness and market expansion [1] Group 2 - Hainan Xiangtai Fishery Co., Ltd. has applied for 261 certificates of origin, with a total value of 1.76446 million USD, highlighting the cost advantages brought by these certificates [2] - Since the full implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the issuance of RCEP certificates has also increased, with 205 certificates issued in the first half of the year valued at 116 million RMB, facilitating the entry of Hainan's specialty products into high-end markets in Japan and Australia [2] - The Haikou Customs has introduced tailored strategies for enterprises to enjoy preferential tax rates under the free trade agreements and has launched innovative policies to enhance the understanding and benefits of these agreements for export-oriented enterprises [2]

前言 7月3日，特朗普在去艾奥瓦州的路上突然放话，明天起每天给10个国家发关税账单。 可这场席卷170国的征税大戏里，中国却神奇地"消失"了，连90天缓冲期都没熬完就翻脸。 这葫芦里到底卖的啥药？中国怎么就成了这场加税风暴里的唯一幸免者？ 说翻脸就翻脸的政策大变脸 90天变1天，特朗普不装了，这变脸速度，比川剧还快，7月4日起，美国真的开始天天发信催税了，每天10个国家，像发传单一样，告诉你该交多少钱，到 了8月1日，就要见真金白银，这节奏，比讨债公司还专业。 要知道，4月2日那会儿，特朗普还摆出一副"咱们好好谈"的姿态，什么"对等关税"，什么90天宽限期，听起来还挺人性化，各国政府也真信了，派出贸易代 表团，准备材料，想着能谈个好价钱。 这份170国的税单可不是闹着玩的，欧盟得交20%，印度26%，日本24%。连一向跟美国关系不错的盟友，这次也一个都跑不了，什么北约伙伴，什么特殊关 系，到了收钱的时候，一律按价格表来。 结果呢？7月3日直接下最后通牒，连谈判桌都不要了，就一句话：交钱。 更绝的是，美国海关现在都开始招兵买马了，据说要增聘数千名关税稽查员，连区块链技术都用上了，就怕有人偷跑漏税，这架势，像要打 ...

美国所谓"对等关税"90天暂缓期将于7月9日结束。在刚刚过去的周末，包括财政部长贝森特等在内的美 方高官频繁表态，一方面施压贸易对象加快谈判步伐，另一方面暗示未能如期达成协议的国家可选择延 长谈判截止期限。 贝森特6日接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示，美国总统特朗普本周将向贸易对象发送信函，告知美 方计划征收的关税税率。对于在8月1日之前未能与美国达成贸易协议的国家，关税税率将恢复到4月宣 布的"对等关税"水平。 贝森特拒绝向媒体证实8月1日是否为最新截止日期，称"如果你想加快速度，那就行动吧"。 特朗普6日晚在新泽西州登上总统专机时对记者表示，他将于7日开始向12至15个贸易对象发出关税函。 他同时暗示，一些协议即将达成。"我认为我们将在7月9日前与大多数国家达成协议——要么是函件， 要么是协议。"他说。 美国商务部长卢特尼克在与特朗普一同登上专机时对记者说："关税将于8月1日生效，总统目前正在制 定税率和协议。" 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣 布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税"90天，但维持10%的"基准关税"。 3个月来，美国与多 ...

Group 1 - Tesla's stock price fell by 7.6% in pre-market trading, marking the largest decline since early June, with a year-to-date drop of 22% [1] - Shell Plc anticipates a significant decrease in contributions from its oil and gas trading business for Q2 compared to Q1 [1] - Google faces antitrust complaints from independent publishers regarding its AI summaries [1] Group 2 - Huya Inc. saw a pre-market increase of 2.4% after acquiring broadcasting rights for the 2025 Esports World Cup in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia [1] - Honda has halted the development of a large SUV, which was part of its electric vehicle strategy [1] - Stellantis reported a 10% year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries in the U.S. market for Q2, totaling 309,973 units [1] - Trump Media & Technology Group has launched a global television live streaming service [1]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a loss of 100 million to 120 million yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a profit of 7.4027 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a decline of 1450.86% to 1721.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be a loss of 77 million to 95 million yuan, with a significant decrease of 1681.38% to 2097.80% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.2148 to 0.2578 yuan, contrasting with earnings of 0.0159 yuan per share in the prior year [1] Communication with Auditors - The financial data related to the performance forecast is based on preliminary calculations by the company's finance department and has not been audited by the accounting firm [1] - The company has communicated with the auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no discrepancies between the company and the auditors [1] Reasons for Performance Changes - The company's performance has been adversely affected by the real estate market environment, leading to lower-than-expected sales of developed real estate projects [1] - The trade business has also seen a significant decline compared to last year due to domestic and international trade environment factors, further impacting the company's operational performance and resulting in a loss for the half-year period [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensifying trade conflict initiated by the U.S., with President Trump planning to notify over 170 countries about impending tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [1][3][10] - The U.S. has only successfully negotiated agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with both countries accepting tariffs of 10% and 20% respectively, showcasing the slow progress in negotiations with other nations [1][3] - Trump’s frustration with the slow negotiation process has led him to opt for a direct communication method, sending approximately 10 letters daily to inform countries of their respective tariff rates [1][3] Group 2 - The potential tariff rates for countries could range from 20% to 30%, with Japan facing threats of 30% to 35% tariffs due to stalled negotiations on key issues like rice and automobiles [3][7] - The European Union has taken a hardline stance, demanding the U.S. lift existing tariffs before any agreements can be made, while also preparing for potential retaliatory measures [3][10] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has emboldened Trump’s tariff policies, as it aims to fill the fiscal gap created by tax cuts and increased government spending through tariff revenues [4][5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has made recent moves to ease restrictions on exports to China, indicating a potential de-escalation in the trade war, contrasting with the aggressive tariff strategy towards other nations [8] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise export costs for countries closely trading with the U.S., potentially harming their economic growth and employment [10] - While tariffs may temporarily boost U.S. fiscal revenues, they could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation in the long run, negatively impacting American consumers [10]

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the US and the EU have encountered significant setbacks, with the EU potentially seeking to extend the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" and abandoning hopes for a comprehensive trade agreement before the deadline [5][6]. Group 1: US-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU has given up on reaching a comprehensive trade agreement before the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" ends on September 9, and it is uncertain if a lighter principle agreement can be achieved [5][6]. - Internal divisions within the EU regarding trade cooperation with the US are hindering progress, with countries like Germany and Italy favoring a swift agreement, while France, Spain, and Denmark express concerns over necessary concessions [5]. - The EU's trade with the US is projected to reach €1.7 trillion (approximately $2 trillion) in 2024, with daily trade averaging €4.6 billion [5]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Relations - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan will not easily compromise in trade negotiations, indicating that discussions are challenging and time-consuming [2][8]. - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 30% to 35% on Japan if an agreement is not reached, and Japan is preparing for various scenarios in response [8][9]. - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akira Amari previously visited the US for negotiations but returned without progress, leading to increased pressure from Trump for higher tariffs [9]. Group 3: US Tariff Plans - Trump plans to send letters to various countries notifying them of the tariffs they will be required to pay, with a potential implementation date of August 1 [3][10]. - The US has already announced a 10% basic tariff on most countries and punitive tariffs of up to 50% on specific goods, with some implementations delayed to allow for negotiations [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that notifications will be sent to 100 countries with minimal trade relations, warning of higher tariffs if negotiations do not progress [12].

很明显，特朗普已经摩拳擦掌，要在印度、日本身上捞到在中国未能捞到的好处。除印度和日本外，欧盟也不例外，近期欧盟方面已经深切地感受到特朗普 关税政策带来的压力了，所以在不久前的七国集团也就是G7峰会期间，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩玩命向特朗普吹风，试图以美欧合作针对中国稀土和磁铁 出口管制措施作为交换，让特朗普放弃对欧盟加征关税，至少是暂缓。 进入7月，标志着美国总统特朗普此前开出的3个月期限进入最后的倒数计时。4月9号，特朗普推出"对等关税"政策不过一周时间，因想不到中方会对自己的 关税措施发起强势反制，特朗普决定将对其他很多国家和地区的关税延迟3个月左右时间，专注针对中国。截至当下，最后时限已经将至了。 经过在日内瓦和伦敦的两轮会谈，中美在贸易问题上的分歧得到了暂时性的缓和。虽说考虑到中国不太可能单方面对特朗普进行让步，因此中美当前谈妥归 谈妥，却未必是一心想讹诈中国的特朗普最初希望看到的。但有意思的是，尽管如此，近期在公开场合特朗普还是盛赞和中方谈的不错，宣称中美达成 了"很棒的协议"，再加上近期特朗普自己也当着媒体的面宣称，中美相处得很好。从这些表态大家不难发现，此前的对抗也令特朗普心有余悸，在这个时 候， ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 ❖ 一、景气向上： 1）服务消费：航班出行有所上行。7 月前 5 日，国内航班执行数为 1.43 万架 次，同比+4%。6 月为 1.28 万架次，同比+0.8%。 2）土地溢价率：低位反弹。6 月 29 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8%。近 三周平均为 4.3%。5 月为 4.93%。 3）物价："反内卷"带动煤炭和地产基建类价格上涨。山西产动力末煤(Q5500) 秦皇岛港平仓价、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、 南华玻璃指数分别上涨 0.5%、2.9%、2%、0.7%。 ❖ 二、景气向下： 1）华创宏观 WEI 指数：仍在较高位置。截至 6 月 29 日，该指数为 6%，较 6 月 22 日的 7.63%下行 1.63 个点，但仍在较高位置。6 月 29 日当周，商品房成 交面积、秦皇岛煤炭吞吐量、沥青开工率、钢厂线材产量等指标普遍下行。4 月以来，指数上行的主要驱动因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零和商品房成交面 积。 2）地产销售：商品房住宅销售降幅扩大。我们统计的 67 个城市，7 月前 4 日， 商品房成交面积同比 ...

在近日的外交部例行记者会上，面对"美国已同越南达成贸易协议，将对越南商品征收20％关税，对经 越南输美商品征收40％关税。这将影响途经越南的中国商品。外交部对此有何评论？"的问题，外交部 发言人毛宁表示，中方一贯主张各方通过平等对话协商解决经贸分歧，同时有关谈判和协议不应针对或 损害第三方利益。 如何理解上述40%关税？北京广问律师事务所合伙人管健对第一财经记者表示，如果一批原本来自第三 国的产品在越南仅进行轻微加工或转运后贴上越南原产地标签再进入美国，这些商品将被视作"转运货 物"而适用40%的更高关税，该条款意在强化美国在关税征收时对供应链和产地规则遵守情况的监管。 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普于美东时间7月2日在社交媒体"真实社交"上发文透露，越南已同意对 美国"完全开放市场"，美国企业能以零关税向越南销售产品。管健提示，考虑到越南是《区域全面经济 伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）成员国，上述能够零关税进入越南的美国产品有可能以"越南原产"身份再出 口至中国或其他RCEP国家，削弱关税壁垒。 管健称："这种'转运'和我们通常理解的把货运到越南然后通过转口出口，是两个概念。" 如何理解40%转运关税 特朗普在 ...