Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) shares rose over 7% due to a significant increase in global copper prices following a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, raising supply chain concerns [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has suspended production due to the landslide, with a projected 35% drop in copper-gold output by 2026 [1] - The incident has led to a surge in copper prices, influenced by supply-demand imbalances and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Company Developments - China MCC's copper resource at the Pakistan Sia Dyk mine is 3.78 million tons, with all relevant approvals expected to be granted by mid-2025, and domestic procedures are ongoing [1] - The Afghanistan Aynak copper mine, one of the largest undeveloped copper deposits, has a total resource of 12.36 million tons, with positive progress in preliminary work [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - CITIC Securities' recent report indicates that China MCC's copper mining development is progressing positively, which may lead to a revaluation of the company's assets [1] - The company’s multiple overseas operating mines are expected to see a valuation increase, with the Aynak copper mine's preliminary work advancing and the Sia Dyk mine's reserves increasing through exploration [1]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 秘鲁矿业公司Minsur的一名高管周三表示，该公司将于10月启动通往一座地下铜矿的隧道爆破工作，预计将耗资约5亿美元，这是Justa矿山扩张计划的一部 分。 Minsur首席执行官Juan Luis Kruger在秘鲁南部阿雷基帕与矿业高管举行的论坛上表示，该地下矿场的目标是成为该国第二大矿场。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 ...

"规模非常大，"BMO Capital Markets分析师Helen Amos称。"这发生在铜供应已经相当紧张的时候。在 其他条件相同的情况下，这将使我们面临一个比以往更高的新价格机制。" Freeport股价周三下跌近 17%，创下五年最大跌幅。 瑞银发布研报称，由于铜的供应增长有限，加上精炼产出受压及传统需求动力复苏等因素，2026及2027 年的基本面将继续支持价格。该行将今明两年的铜价预测各自上调3%，分别由每磅4.24及4.68美元，提 高至4.37和4.8美元。 周三，美股铜矿板块集体上扬，Ero Copper(ERO.US)、南方铜业(SCCO.US)涨超8%，Taseko Mines(TGB.US)涨近8%，Hudbay Minerals(HBM.US)涨超6%。 受到能源转型和人工智能热潮推动，对这种电子产品里必不可少的金属需求飙升。 然而，从南美洲到中非的铜矿遭遇了一系列事故和干扰，导致供应紧张。 Grasberg是全球第二大铜矿，占全球产量的3%。 总部位于美国亚利桑那州的Freeport周三警告称，其可能无法履行该矿的供应合同，同时还下调了本季 铜、金产量预期。此举出乎了许多市场参与 ...

美国矿业巨头Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山发生致命泥石流事故，推动全球铜价大幅上涨并引发供应链担忧。这座全球第二大铜矿 因事故暂停生产，公司已启动不可抗力条款。 Freeport确认，其位于印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿9月8日发生的泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有五名工人仍下落不明。约80万公吨湿润物 质突然涌入矿井，波及多个作业层面，在该公司数十年开采历史中史无前例。 受供应中断预期推动，伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价一度跳涨2%至每吨10172美元。Freeport股价盘前重挫9.6%，而其他铜业公司则因供应预期收 紧而大涨。欧洲市场上，Antofagasta、KGHM、英美公司、嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司股价均出现上涨。 截至周三纽约尾盘时段，COMEX铜期货上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅，逼近7月30日顶部5.830美元和7月24日顶部5.957美元。 约80万公吨湿润物质的突然涌入波及了矿井的多个层面，包括失踪员工当时进行开发作业的服务层。这一规模的地质事故在PT Freeport Indonesia 数十年块状崩落开采历史中史无前例。 公司已 ...

中国资产集体爆发。 今晚，美股开盘后，中国资产全线走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨近4%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF暴 涨超6%。热门中概股普涨，阿里巴巴暴涨超10%。 目前外资机构对中国资产的关注度持续升温。其中，华尔街明星基金经理凯茜·伍德近日豪掷2100万美元买入 阿里巴巴等中概股。摩根士丹利在最新发布的报告中指出，持续看好阿里巴巴作为中国最佳AI赋能者的地 位。 与此同时，美国财长贝森特的最新讲话也引发市场关注。他表示，对美联储主席鲍威尔尚未暗示利率目标感到 惊讶，鲍威尔本应释放降息100～150个基点的信号。 中国资产大涨 北京时间9月24日晚间，美股开盘后，中国资产集体大涨，截至22:30，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨3.74%，两 倍做多中国互联网股票ETF暴涨超6%，三倍做多富时中国ETF大涨超4%，中国海外互联网ETF涨超3%，中国 科技ETF涨超2%。 其中，阿里巴巴暴涨超10%，创2021年10月以来的最高水平，此前公司宣布资本开支会在3800亿元基础上增加 更多投入，并与英伟达开展Physical AI合作。受此消息刺激，今日亚洲交易时段，阿里巴巴港股大幅收涨 9.16%。 另外，美国矿业 ...

铜价周三跃升，此前Freeport McMoRan Inc.表示，其位于印度尼西亚的巨型矿山Grasberg的合同供应已 遭遇不可抗力。伦敦金属交易所三个月期铜价格一度上涨2%，至每吨10,172美元。该公司周三在一份 声明中表示，在9月8日Grasberg发生事故后，两名工人不幸身亡。公司仍在搜寻另外五名工人。各支队 伍正昼夜不停清理泥浆与杂物，并在稳步推进，努力到达泥流事故发生时工人所在的区域。Freeport还 给出了第三季度指引。与7月的预估相比，合并销售预计铜将低约4%，黄金将低约6%。Grasberg是全球 第二大铜矿。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a traditional copper mining company that has successfully pivoted to support artificial intelligence by providing necessary computing power through copper foil production [2] - This company has strategically positioned itself in the high-end copper processing sector, capitalizing on the growing demand for AI computing servers [2] - The case of this company exemplifies the potential for traditional manufacturing industries in China to transition towards high-end and intelligent production, reflecting broader trends in industrial upgrading [2]

Core Insights - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in August 2025 reached 2,759,295.14 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.78% and a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [1][3] Import Sources - Chile remains the largest source of copper ore and concentrate imports, with 958,654.98 tons imported in August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 27.07% and a year-on-year increase of 5.54% [1][2] - Peru is the second-largest source, with imports of 564,046.06 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 5.01% and a year-on-year decline of 23.58% [1][2] - Other notable sources include Mongolia (181,783.55 tons, +1.73% MoM, +84.25% YoY) and Russia (113,537.75 tons, +24.91% MoM, +303.10% YoY) [2][3] Detailed Import Data - The import data from various countries shows significant fluctuations, with some countries experiencing substantial increases, such as Laos (10,948.92 tons, -64.03% MoM, +9.69% YoY) and Malaysia (10,945.44 tons, +2557.63% MoM, +130.27% YoY) [2][3] - Countries like Ecuador and Japan saw significant decreases in imports, with Ecuador at 33,156.40 tons (-54.04% MoM, -42.14% YoY) and Japan at 35,929.22 tons (-15.77% MoM, +8.27% YoY) [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have risen due to the assessment of the impact of an incident in Indonesia on global supply, which has led to a two-week shutdown of the world's second-largest copper mine [1] Group 1: Incident Impact - The Grasberg mine operated by Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) has experienced a tragic incident where two workers' bodies have been found, while five others remain missing following a landslide on September 8 [1] - The mine may face a prolonged shutdown, potentially exacerbating the existing supply shortages in the market and driving prices higher [1] Group 2: Market Response - On Monday, copper prices reached over $10,000 per ton on the London Metal Exchange before slightly retreating, currently maintaining at $9,994 per ton [1] - Other metals have also seen price increases, with aluminum rising by 0.3% and iron ore prices up by 0.4% to $106.95 per ton in Singapore [1] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Citigroup analysts indicated that copper prices are expected to remain stable until 2025, after which a stronger upward trend is anticipated, potentially reaching $12,000 per ton [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Contract Prices**: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - **Inventory Status**: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]