Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's (09961) Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to rise [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's hotel business showed stronger-than-expected growth in Q2 [1] - The company is in a favorable position within the competitive landscape of the mainland market [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue [1] - The impact of overseas market investments on overall company profits is manageable [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - CCB International extended Ctrip's valuation to 2026, applying a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for that year [1] - The target price for Ctrip was raised from HKD 591 to HKD 653, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 携程集团-S（09961.HK） 2025Q2 业绩点评：利润及回购好于预期，国 际业务继续高增 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 44,510 | 53,294 | 61,074 | 68,403 | 75,078 | | 同比（%） | 122.12 | 19.73 | 14.60 | 12.00 | 9.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 9,918 | 17,067 | 26,528 | 19,074 | 21,156 | | 同比（%） | 606.91 | 72.08 | 55.44 | (28.10) | 10.91 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 13,071 | 18,041 | 18,334 | 20,050 | 22,043 | | 同比（%） | 910.12 | 38.02 | 1.62 | 9.36 ...

美银证券发布研报称，携程集团-S(TCOM.US,09961)第二季净收入同比增长16%，非公认会计准则经营 溢利率31.4%，超出公司指引及市场预期。酒店和交通收入分别同比增长21%和11%，受惠高于同业的 双位数交易量增长，该行上调对携程目标价，由550港元上调至652港元，重申"买入"评级。管理层亦指 出夏季旅游预订需求强劲且交易量增长强劲，该行预测第三季收入同比增长14%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to increase [1] - The company is positioned favorably in the current competitive environment of the domestic market, with a trend of improving marketing investment efficiency expected to continue [1] - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price adjustment from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - Ctrip Group's Q2 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1%, primarily driven by better-than-expected accommodation revenue [1] - CICC maintains the revenue forecast for the company for the next two years, while raising the 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast by 8% to 17.7 billion yuan [1] - The target price for Ctrip's US stock is set at $75.9, and for its H-shares at 588.5 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to non-GAAP P/E ratios of 21x and 20x for 2025 and 2026 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with net revenue growing by 16.2% year-on-year to 14.9 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 1% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 15% [1] - The net profit margin was 33.8%, better than market expectations [1] - Ctrip anticipates a revenue growth of 12-17% year-on-year for Q3, consistent with market expectations [1] - The brokerage maintains a "Buy" rating on Ctrip, raising the target price from 635 HKD to 725 HKD [1] Financial Performance - Q2 net revenue reached 14.9 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 5 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase [1] - Net profit margin stood at 33.8%, exceeding market expectations [1] Future Outlook - Ctrip projects Q3 revenue growth of 12-17% year-on-year [1] - The target price for Ctrip has been raised from 635 HKD to 725 HKD by the brokerage [1]

摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，携程第三季度正面展望再次证明领先的在线旅游代理的韧性，类似去年夏 季，而且表现持续超越整体旅游市场，先前的高强度营销投入正带来成果，保持持续的高增长。公司第 三季非通用会计准则经营溢利率指引为32%，符合预期。50亿美元的新股份回购计划是重大正面惊喜， 相较市场预期20亿美元回购，大幅提升对股东回报。该行对携程ADR目标价上调至83美元，维持"增 持"评级，并将今年至2027年非通用会计准则经营溢利预测上调1%至2%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the online travel industry, particularly for leading companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng, which have shown steady growth in their mid-year reports [1][2]. Core Insights - The online travel industry is experiencing a robust recovery, with Tongcheng's revenue growing by 10% year-on-year in Q2 2025 and Ctrip's revenue increasing by 16.2% in the same period. Both companies maintained stable growth rates compared to Q1 2025, with notable performance in international business [1][2]. - Domestic tourism is on the rise, with the Ministry of Culture and Tourism reporting 5.62 billion domestic trips in 2024, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, and total spending of 5.8 trillion yuan, up 17.1% [1][2]. - The Guangdong provincial government plans to launch a "Golden Autumn Cultural Tourism Consumption Season" on September 12, 2025, with a budget of 20 million yuan for issuing tourism consumption vouchers, which is expected to stimulate local tourism and related industries [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw mixed performance, with retail, food and beverage, and social services showing positive growth, while beauty care, home appliances, and textile and apparel sectors experienced declines [1][2]. - Notable stock performances included Wanchen Group (+41.10%) and Jiaheng Home Care (+55.37%), while West China Animal Husbandry (-5.88%) and Gree (-8.30%) faced declines [1][2]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights significant announcements from various companies, including Taiping Bird's revenue decline of 7.86% and Shanghai Jahwa's revenue growth of 4.75% in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - Noteworthy is the performance of companies like Nongfu Spring, which reported a 15.6% increase in revenue, and Youyou Food, which saw a 45.59% rise in revenue [1][2].

Group 1: Summer Travel Trends - The summer travel season of 2025 has seen a significant increase in travel volume compared to the previous year, with long-distance travel being the primary focus [1][2] - Family travel and senior travel have shown notable growth, particularly among children aged 10 and under and seniors aged 60 and above [2] - Domestic and international travel bookings through platforms like Tuniu have experienced double-digit year-on-year growth [2][6] Group 2: Air Travel and Passenger Volume - The total passenger volume for civil aviation during the summer is expected to reach a historical high of 150 million, driven by affordable ticket prices and increased demand for long-distance travel [2] - Approximately 6 million first-time flyers are anticipated this summer, primarily consisting of children, students, and seniors [2] Group 3: Emerging Travel Preferences - There is a growing trend towards small group and private tours, with a significant increase in demand for personalized travel experiences [6][7] - The number of customized travel orders has surged, with a 53% increase in revenue from cross-province small group tours compared to 2024 [6] Group 4: Impact of Events and Entertainment - Events such as concerts and exhibitions have significantly boosted travel interest, with searches for accommodations and attractions near event venues increasing dramatically [10][11] - The popularity of sports events has also driven travel, with notable increases in bookings for destinations hosting these events [11] Group 5: Influence of Media and Culture - The release of popular films and TV shows has led to increased travel to filming locations, with some destinations experiencing over a 380% increase in search volume [12] - The success of domestic animations and dramas has particularly highlighted cultural tourism, with specific sites seeing substantial growth in visitor interest [12]

Group 1 - The inbound tourism market in China is experiencing a significant increase this summer due to factors such as visa policy facilitation and an increase in the number of countries with direct flights [1][4] - The number of countries with civil aviation connections has risen to 80, with international passenger flights peaking in early August at approximately 2,100 flights per day [4][2] - There is a notable increase in foreign tourists, particularly from visa-free countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, with visitor numbers growing by over 50% year-on-year [4] Group 2 - Family travel has become a new trend, with more foreign tourists visiting China in groups, particularly children and elderly travelers [4][5] - Major cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu are the top destinations for inbound tourism, with travel patterns shifting from traditional hub cities to deeper inland areas [7] - There has been a dramatic increase in flight bookings to lesser-known cities, with bookings to Datong in Shanxi increasing ninefold and to Yiwu in Zhejiang increasing by 2.6 times year-on-year [7] Group 3 - The "China tour" has also stimulated "China shopping," with initiatives like "buy now, refund later" catering to the diverse needs of foreign tourists [8] - There is a rising consumer willingness among foreign tourists as they engage in travel and shopping experiences in China [8]