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研客专栏 | 石油、棉花、铜等27种大宗商品55年的价格波动周期
对冲研投· 2025-05-29 12:16
以下文章来源于全说能源 ,作者全说能源 全说能源 . 国际能源、石油和天然气问题分析和评论 文 | 全说能源 来源 | 全说能源 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 --世界银行《新冠大流行后的商品周期:一个新时代?》述评 55年间,石油等27种大宗商品价格平均4年变化一次,衰退期为52个月而繁荣期为38个月,三分之二处于同一周期,但新冠以来周期 更短。 专题研究的数据,来源于世界银行的数据库。 专题研究的主要术语和概念 峰值和低谷。局部最大值定义为峰值,局部最小值定义为低谷。 衰退和繁荣。 峰值和低谷之间的时间段称为衰退(或下降阶段),而低谷和峰值之间的时间段称为繁荣(或上升阶段)。繁荣和衰退,共 同构成了一个完整周期的各个阶段。一个完整的峰值到峰值(PP)周期,被定义为一个衰退之后随之到来的繁荣,而一个完整的低谷到低 谷(TT)周期被定义为一个繁荣之后随之到来的衰退。 作为一个观察、实践和研究世界石油和能源问题逾40年的人士,最关心并最想得到答案的问题是国际石油价格的变化有没有规律可言,这 肯定也是世界上无数同行最关心的问题。2025年4月29日,世界银行发布2025年4月《大宗商品展望》报告,其中附 ...
“2025第四届亚洲矿业创新发展高峰论坛矿权对接交流会”圆满举行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-29 06:52
Core Insights - The "2025 Fourth Asian Mining Innovation Development Summit" successfully took place, focusing on mining rights exchange and cooperation opportunities between China and Kazakhstan [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was hosted by the China Asia Economic Development Association and featured various mining rights projects, generating significant interest among attendees [1][3]. - The summit included presentations from experts and representatives from multiple countries, highlighting the importance of international collaboration in the mining sector [3][5]. Group 2: Kazakhstan's Mining Potential - Kazakhstan's Aktobe region is a strategic area for mineral resources, possessing 63 deposits and 17 types of minerals, with chromium ore reserves accounting for over 30% of global supply [5]. - The region is promoting the auction of 14 solid mineral deposits, including strategic resources like chromium, manganese, and asbestos, with total reserves exceeding ten million tons [5]. - Aktobe's industrial and free economic zones offer significant tax incentives, successfully attracting 29 mining projects [5]. Group 3: Mining Rights Projects - The summit featured 13 mining rights projects from various countries, including six from Mongolia, two from Zambia, one from Kyrgyzstan, and four domestic projects [6]. - Notable projects included gold, iron, and rare earth mines from Mongolia, as well as copper and iron projects from Zambia [6][10][14]. Group 4: China's Mining Resources - China has a diverse range of mineral resources, with provinces like Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia having rich deposits of coal, molybdenum, graphite, gold, and rare earth elements [8][12]. - The event showcased several domestic mining projects, emphasizing the country's potential in the global mining landscape [12][20]. Group 5: Mongolia's Mining Strategy - Mongolia has over 80 types of mineral resources and is implementing a mining-driven economic strategy, with mining being a crucial pillar of its economy [14][16]. - The country has seen increased foreign investment in its mining sector since the implementation of the Mining Law in 1997, highlighting its untapped resource potential [18][20].
最高法发布指导性案例,明确生态环境案裁判、审查、程序规则
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 02:39
人民法院审理环境资源案件,应当准确把握高质量发展和高水平保护的关系,促进人与自然和谐共生。 如何判断建设项目是否存在"损害社会公共利益重大风险"?对于环境民事公益诉讼的原告申请撤诉的, 法院应如何审查处理?跨行政区划生态环境案件如何衔接? 针对当前生态环境案件审判过程中存在的种种疑问,最高人民法院明确了生态环境侵权责任裁判规则、 环境公益诉讼案件相关审查规则和跨行政区划案件相关程序规则。 最高人民法院5月28日公开发布第46批共5件生态环境保护专题指导性案例,均为环境民事公益诉讼案 例,涵盖建设项目环境影响评价,防治放射性污染、固体废物污染、尾矿库污染,严惩长江流域非法采 砂等不同类型。 最高人民法院在公布这批指导性案例时强调,发展经济不能对资源和生态环境竭泽而渔,生态环境保护 也不是舍弃经济发展而缘木求鱼。人民法院审理环境资源案件,应当准确把握高质量发展和高水平保护 的关系,促进人与自然和谐共生。 环境公益诉讼作为一项旨在维护社会公共利益的诉讼制度,在司法理念、程序规则及责任方式等方面, 均与传统的私益诉讼有明显不同。最高人民法院明确,原告为维护社会公共利益提起诉讼属于公益活 动,依法应予鼓励和保护,但同时 ...
中矿资源:2024年报暨2025一季报点评:锂价下滑盈利承压,静待铜及小金属资源放量-20250528
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-28 02:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 757 million yuan, a decrease of 66% year-on-year; the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is 603 million yuan, down 72% year-on-year [2][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 135 million yuan, a decrease of 47% year-on-year and 36% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is 43 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year and 77% quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 5.364 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit of 1.757 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 33% [14]. - The lithium segment generated revenue of 3.129 billion yuan, down 26% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 583 million yuan and a gross margin of 18.62%, a decrease of 39.15 percentage points year-on-year [11]. - The cesium and rubidium segment achieved revenue of 1.395 billion yuan, an increase of 24% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 1.092 billion yuan and a gross margin of 78.29%, an increase of 13.91 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Business Segments - The lithium segment's production volume increased by 138% year-on-year to 43,700 tons, while sales volume increased by 145% year-on-year to 42,600 tons [11]. - The cesium and rubidium segment maintained stable growth, with sales volume of 843.97 tons, down 16% year-on-year, but revenue increased significantly due to price hikes [11]. - In Q1 2025, the lithium sales volume was 9,000 tons, impacted by maintenance during the holiday period [11]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its lithium production capacity and exploring new metal resources such as gallium and germanium [11]. - The copper segment is expected to enhance its production capacity with ongoing exploration and project developments [11].
外媒:美欧若再不行动,她就要找中国了
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-05-28 00:30
环球时报消息,据英国《金融时报》报道,丹麦格陵兰岛的自治政府日前表示,格陵兰岛方面希望与外国 投资人合作开发当地的矿产资源。这其中包括美欧,但也不排除中方。 根据《金融时报》的介绍,做出这一表态的是格陵兰岛自治政府的商业与矿产资源部长纳雅·纳塔尼尔森 (Naaja Nathanielsen)。在接受该报采访时,纳塔尼尔森首先表示当地希望与外国投资人合作对格陵兰岛 的商业进行多元化开发。 而在被《金融时报》的记者问及她是否会与中国合作时,纳塔尼尔森表示尽管当地政府更倾向于来自欧洲 或是美国的合作伙伴,但如果他们迟迟不现身的话,格陵兰岛也会考虑"其他选项"。 不过,《金融时报》指出,尽管格陵兰岛拥有大量的矿产资源储备,但这些资源并不好开采。此前,有其 他西方矿产专家也指出,格陵兰岛虽然拥有美国希望获得的稀土资源,但这些稀土资源的开采难度不小, 而且等级也比较一般。 纳塔尼尔森亦在访谈中称,眼下中国对格陵兰岛的矿产项目兴趣并不大。虽然有两家中国企业涉足了格陵 兰岛的矿业,但这两家企业都是小股东,而且项目目前也处于暂停状态。她还认为中国的投资人可能会对 格陵兰岛的项目持观望态度,以免被卷入不必要的麻烦中。 纳塔尼尔森 ...
辽阳灯塔市三产协同发力助推高质量发展
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-05-27 01:17
灯塔市还积极推动文体旅深度融合发展,不断为第三产业发展注入动力。全市深入挖掘燕州城、高 公馆、李兆麟故居等历史文物遗迹的文化内涵,提升旅游产品竞争力,不断丰富佟二堡购物旅游区、太 阳谷庄园、葛西河生态走廊等景区业态,全力构建以生态旅游、文化旅游、红色旅游、乡村旅游为重点 的全域旅游格局。 下一步,灯塔市将从持续扩大有效投资、推动产业转型升级、突出改革创新等方面重点发力,着力 补短板、强弱项,全力推动经济总量扩容进位。 作为全国农业科技现代化先行县、国家农业现代化示范区、省乡村振兴示范带,灯塔市全力推动农 业产业提质增效,2024年再添"国字""省字"荣誉,获评国家现代农业产业园、全国农业生产全程机械化 示范县、省乡村振兴补短板工程重点县。同时,粮食总产量保持42万吨以上,淡水鱼亩产全国第一。 以科技创新推动产业创新,加快构建具有特色优势的现代化产业体系,灯塔市成功入选省工业单项 冠军种子培育县。日用化工产业,建有省级日化产业园区,天然脂肪醇年产能16万吨,位居全国第一。 矿产建材产业,已探明矿产种类超20种,拥有沈煤集团红阳三矿等国有煤矿以及西钢等多家国内重点企 业。以皮装裘皮为主的轻工产业,已形成集加工硝染 ...
推动中国—中东欧经贸合作向新向实(开放谈)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-26 21:40
眼下,全球经济不确定性仍存,中欧合作有望成为维护全球多边秩序稳定发展的"压舱石",符合世界各 国共同利益。中国与中东欧国家深化经贸合作也将迎来新机遇。面向未来,双方需要相向而行,进一步 推动经贸合作向新向实,引领全方位合作机制走深走精。 一是积极推动进口贸易,大力发展服务贸易,努力推动双方总体贸易结构均衡化发展。中国2021年9月 提出"今后5年从中东欧国家进口累计价值1700亿美元以上"的目标,今后应以中东欧博览会为契机,以 特色农副产品、矿产品、高端中间品为主要着力点,支持国内大型电商平台上线"中东欧商品"专区,加 强品牌宣传和推广;发挥中东欧国家旅游资源丰富的优势,率先支持在塞尔维亚、黑山、波黑、北马其 顿等对中国实施免签政策的国家开拓旅游线路;鼓励中东欧国家的信息服务、软件服务等数字服务商拓 展中国市场,以服务贸易发展促成双方贸易结构"再平衡"。 近日,以"向新向好向未来"为主题的第四届中国—中东欧国家博览会在浙江省宁波市举办,展会规模、 展品种类、参展人数等各项指标均创新高,标志着中国与中东欧国家经贸合作迈上新台阶、开启新篇 章。 自2012年中国与中东欧国家建立合作机制以来,双方贸易规模年均增速达 ...
欧美诉求鸿沟难弥 伦敦银几乎持平于33美元
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-26 00:57
欧盟多国贸易部长明确表态,最近美英之间达成的协议并非欧盟的参照模板。瑞典国际发展合作与外贸 部长本杰明·杜萨表示:"我们不会对这种协议感到高兴,美国应该做好迎接欧盟反制措施的准备。" 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 周五,白银价格在周四的交易区间内波动,约为33.00美元。白金属一个月的交易价格在31.65美元到 33.70美元之间。白金属的近期趋势不确定,因为它在20周期指数移动平均线(EMA)周围波动,交易 价格接近32.75美元。 14周期相对强弱指数(RSI)在40.00-60.00范围内波动,表明了横向趋势。 展望来看,3月28日34.60美元的高点将成为金属的关键阻力。缺点是,4月11日30.90美元的低点将是关 键支撑区。 今日周日(5月25日)休市,伦敦银目前交投于33.54一线上方,今日开盘于33.03美元/盎司,截至发稿,伦 敦银暂报33.48美元/盎司,上涨1.33%,最高触及33.54美元/盎司,最低下探32.88美元/盎司,目前来 看,伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 欧盟与美国的关税谈判目前进入重启阶段,但仍存在诸多不确定性。从双方诉求分歧来看,欧盟有意在 购买美国天然气、武器和 ...
又一个乌克兰?刚果用矿产换美军出兵,中国70亿美元投资打水漂?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 04:25
Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is becoming increasingly significant in the global economy due to its rich cobalt and copper reserves, essential for the battery manufacturing in the new energy sector, especially as traditional oil reserves lose their importance [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The DRC has substantial mineral resources, particularly cobalt and copper, ranking high globally, with cobalt being crucial for new energy battery production [3]. - Despite the wealth of resources, the local population has historically lived in poverty, benefiting little from these natural riches until Chinese investments began to develop the mining sector and infrastructure [3][6]. Group 2: Sino-Congolese Relations - The DRC has a long-standing cooperative relationship with China, particularly in mineral development, highlighted by a $7 billion infrastructure financing agreement signed in early 2024 [4]. - Recently, the DRC has expressed dissatisfaction with the current situation, feeling that most benefits are captured by Chinese companies, prompting a review of existing agreements and outreach to the U.S. for potential support [6][4]. Group 3: U.S. Involvement and Risks - The DRC's shift towards seeking U.S. support raises questions about its strategic intentions, as it may be attempting to leverage its mineral resources to enhance bargaining power against China [4][12]. - However, the U.S. has shown a lack of commitment to substantial investments in African infrastructure and mining, raising concerns about the DRC's expectations from this potential partnership [9][15]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The DRC's strategy of balancing relations between China and the U.S. is seen as risky, especially given the internal instability and ongoing conflicts within the country [12][14]. - The global demand for cobalt and lithium is significant, but the DRC does not hold a decisive advantage as other regions also possess these resources, and China's established global partnerships mitigate the DRC's leverage [17].
国际实业(000159) - 000159国际实业投资者关系管理信息20250523
2025-05-23 11:02
闵总您好,1.公司 2025 年制造业方面当前在手订单充裕, 产销量与去年相比呈增长态势。2.公司收购新疆怡宝矿业资源勘 查开发有限责任公司股权事项正在进行中,公司将严格按照深圳 证券交易所的有关规定及时履行信息披露义务。感谢您的关注。 4、收购铜矿情况如何 公司转型有何进展 尊敬的投资者您好,公司收购新疆怡宝矿业资源勘查开发有 限责任公司股权事项正在进行中,公司将严格按照深圳证券交易 所的有关规定及时履行信息披露义务。感谢您对公司的关注。 5、矿产收购协议怎么样了 证券代码:000159 证券简称:国际实业 新疆国际实业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访√业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他(请文字说明其他活动内容) | | 参与单位名称及 | 投资者网上提问 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 年 月 日 (周五) 下午 2025 5 23 15:00~18:00 | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"(https://ir. ...