Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term market lacks clear directional drivers. The supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals limit the upside potential of prices. The market is expected to continue in a weak and fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will trigger more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling call options opportunistically [39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 ranged from 1,221 to 1,260 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. As of the afternoon close on November 31, 2025, the contract fell 4 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.33%, closing at 1,225 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 2.29%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, up 1.95% from the previous week [7][10]. Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, an increase of 9,600 tons from the previous Monday. Light soda ash inventory was 815,600 tons, up 15,200 tons week - on - week, while heavy soda ash inventory was 886,400 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week [8][15]. 3. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 757,600 tons, with light soda ash production at 337,800 tons (up 7,200 tons week - on - week) and heavy soda ash production at 419,700 tons (up 9,800 tons week - on - week). - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.89%, with the ammonia - soda process at 91.09% (unchanged week - on - week), the co - production process at 77.90% (up 1.67% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons at 90.27% (up 2.29% week - on - week) [10][12]. Inventory Analysis - As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,600 tons or 0.57%. Light soda ash inventory increased by 15,200 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 5,600 tons [15]. Shipment Analysis - On October 30, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 757,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.53%. The overall shipment rate was 100.01%, up 0.23 percentage points week - on - week [16]. Profit Analysis - As of October 31, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 41.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.30 yuan/ton. - As of October 30, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process was - 165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [20][24]. 4. Downstream Industry Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, unchanged from the 23rd. From the 24th to the 30th, the float glass production was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged week - on - week but a year - on - year increase of 1.28%. - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million weight boxes or 3.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous period [27][31]. 5. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most products in the domestic soda ash market remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 8 yuan/ton or 1.05% to 770 yuan/ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 36 yuan/ton or 1.65% to 2,219 yuan/ton. The price of float glass decreased by 20 yuan/ton or 1.68% to 1,167 yuan/ton [37]. 6. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main soda ash futures contract showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The core contradiction of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" in the fundamentals remained prominent. - Supply pressure increased further, with weekly production and capacity utilization rising. Demand improvement was limited, and new orders were insufficient. - Inventory pressure was not relieved, with the total inventory of manufacturers continuing to accumulate, especially the inventory of light soda ash. - Profit conditions deteriorated further, with both the ammonia - soda and co - production processes in deeper losses. Cost support was not enough to reverse the supply - demand pattern [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

玻璃纯碱早报 | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/24 2025/10/30 2025/10/31 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1121.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -8.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1236.0 | 1243.0 | 1232.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1104.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1092.0 | 1091.0 | 1083.0 | -9.0 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - If there is no real production cut, the end of the 01 contract for glass and soda ash is downward. Currently, glass has high inventories in the upper and middle reaches and the expected production cut has not been realized; soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious over - supply. However, there are expectations of cost increases for both glass and soda ash in the long - term [2]. - Without substantial cold repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.83% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 74.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.50% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 8.5% [1]. Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell glass futures (FG2601) at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (FG601C1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy glass futures (FG2601) at 1000 - 1050 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (FG601P1000) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short sell soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1350 - 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SA601C1400) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy soda ash futures (SA2601) at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SA601P1200) at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1]. Market Data Glass - On October 31, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1232, down 11 (-0.88%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1328, up 1 (0.08%); the 01 contract was 1083, down 8 (-0.73%) [7]. - The average spot price of glass in the Shahe area on October 31, 2025, was 1118, down 3 from the previous day [8]. Soda Ash - On October 31, 2025, the price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1316, down 8 (-0.6%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1383, up 1 (0.07%); the 01 contract was 1225, down 10 (-0.81%) [9]. - The average spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on October 31, 2025 [10]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - There are still expectations of cost increases (fuel and raw materials) for glass and soda ash, which will affect the pricing of far - month contracts [6]. - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely ruled out and may be repeatedly traded [6]. - After the spot price of glass was reduced, production and sales improved, and manufacturers had a slight reduction in inventory. The sustainability needs to be observed [6]. Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upper and middle reaches of both glass and soda ash, and doubts about the downstream's ability to absorb, resulting in an off - peak season during the peak period [9]. - There are supply pressures. There is an expectation of ignition for glass production lines, and there is future production - capacity expansion pressure for soda ash [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology meeting on Wednesday did not release any signals, and the expected production cut was disappointed again [9].

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/23 2025/10/29 2025/10/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/23 2025/10/29 2025/10/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1170.0 | 1210.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | -30.0 | SA05合 约 | 1318.0 | 1347.0 | 1324.0 | 6.0 | -23.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1210.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | -30.0 | SA01合约 | 1235.0 | 1259.0 | 1235.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1379.0 | 1400.0 | 1382.0 | 3.0 | -18 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, Ethylene Glycol (MEG), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][4][5][8] - **Cautiously bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [3][8] - **Bearish rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Soda Ash [1][8] - **Bearish consolidation**: Glass [8] 2. Report's Core Views - **Overall**: The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, macro - policies, and cost fluctuations. Most products face supply - side pressures, while some demand shows short - term improvement but lacks long - term stability [1][3][4][5][8] - **Specific products**: - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ may expand production, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1][11][12] - **LPG**: Cost - side oil price correction leads to a weakening of LPG [1][17] - **PTA**: New device production and potential maintenance may balance supply, with short - term upward momentum due to "anti - involution" hype, but long - term supply remains loose [3][36] - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, but demand shows slight improvement, and there is potential for long - term price increase [4][43] - **Urea**: Supply is relatively abundant, and although demand improves slightly, winter demand and export incentives are limited [5][47] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.31%, Brent down 0.46%, and SC up 0.47% [10] - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [11] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. Indian imports and exports show certain changes, and US inventory data varies [12] - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short positions lightly, and focus on the range of [460 - 470] for SC [13] 3.2 LPG - **Market situation**: On October 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,260 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [16] - **Basic logic**: It follows the cost - side oil price, with short - term geopolitical risk mitigation leading to a cost - side correction [17] - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly and focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] [18] 3.3 L - **Market situation**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,999 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic logic**: Social inventory is slightly reduced, but supply remains loose, and cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, and follow the cost for short - term rebounds, focusing on the range of [6900 - 7100] [22] 3.4 PP - **Market situation**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic logic**: Spot price increase lags, demand faces de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, follow the cost for short - term rebounds, and focus on the range of [6600 - 6800] [27] 3.5 PVC - **Market situation**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic logic**: Low valuation supports, but single - product losses expand, and supply - demand surplus persists [31] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and participate in short - term rebounds lightly, focusing on the range of [4600 - 4800] [31] 3.6 PX - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices show certain changes [32] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device load decreases, demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the long - term, and cost - side oil price rebound is limited [33] - **Strategy**: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short at high prices, and consider arbitrage by expanding downstream processing fees, focusing on the range of [6550 - 6660] [34] 3.7 PTA - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory shows a decreasing trend [35] - **Basic logic**: New device production and potential maintenance relieve supply pressure, and short - term demand improves slightly [36] - **Strategy**: Lightly chase long positions, stop losses on short positions, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the long - term, focusing on the range of [4580 - 4660] [37] 3.8 MEG - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory slightly accumulates [38] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device load decreases, overseas slightly increases, and supply pressure is expected to rise [39] - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focusing on the range of [4070 - 4140] [40] 3.9 Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory suppresses prices, and demand shows slight improvement [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure remains, demand improves slightly, and cost support is weak but stable [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, focusing on the range of [2240 - 2280] [45] 3.10 Urea - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory accumulates [46] - **Basic logic**: Supply is abundant, demand improves slightly, but winter demand and export incentives are limited [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, and consider long positions in the medium - to - long - term, focusing on the range of [1615 - 1645] [49]

| | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 2025/10/24 2025/10/27 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1173.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | 1246.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1156.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1095.0 | 1092.0 | 1095.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | | | | ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-10-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1246 | 环比 数据指标 17 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1095 | 环比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 151 | 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1387064 | -20813 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1807146 | 85524 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -250194 | 7848 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -314971 | -34188 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 8745 | -1189 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 447 | -8 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -49 | 16 | | | 玻璃基差 | -51 | -11 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -151 | -7 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -91 | -1 | | | | 现货市场 | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1180 | 10 华中 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/10/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/23 | | 2025/10/24 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全5mm 大 板 | 1173.0 | 1130.0 | 1121.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 5合约 | 1231.0 | 1256.0 | 1236.0 | 5.0 | -20.0 | | 沙河长城 5 m m大板 | 1156.0 | 1113.0 | 1104.0 | -52.0 | -9.0 | F G 0 1合约 | 1095.0 | 1108.0 | 1092.0 | -3.0 | -16.0 | | 沙河5 m m大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - The domestic 5mm float glass market continued its downward trend last week, with prices in various regions generally decreasing by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with overall rising enterprise inventories, persistently sluggish downstream demand, and purchases mainly for刚需. There is a lack of substantial positive support. Affected by low - price supplies and rainy weather in some areas during the week, the trading pace further slowed down, and prices were under downward pressure. Although the increase in coal prices in the second half of the week strengthened cost support to some extent, the overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the price rebound momentum was insufficient. In the short term, the market lacks new driving factors and is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the dynamic of enterprise cold repairs and the marginal changes in the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy [12][13]. Soda Ash - Last week, the prices of light and heavy soda ash in the northwest region decreased slightly. The industry supply continued to operate at a high level. Although the maintenance of individual enterprises provided some support to the local market, the overall production capacity base was large, and the supply pressure remained unchanged. There are still plans for individual devices to start up and resume production in the later stage. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing willingness is low, and they generally adopt a cautious strategy of replenishing inventory on demand and buying at low prices. Manufacturers have few new orders, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. Overall, the soda ash market is difficult to reverse the pattern of loose supply and demand in the short term. Prices are expected to remain stable and weak, and the trading center may further decline [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. According to WIND data, from January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. According to CAAM data, in September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [12]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was - 149 yuan/ton (- 15), the 05 - 09 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (- 5), the 09 - 01 spread was 238 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [17][20]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.72 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton [26][29]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. - **Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.70%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 65834.79 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the sales area of commercial housing was 8530.87 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the production and sales of automobiles were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.15%/14.86%; from January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of national float glass factories was 6661.3 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 233.74 million heavy boxes; the inventory of factories in the Shahe area was 582.8 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 60.40 million heavy boxes [46]. Soda Ash 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons. - **Inventory**: As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [56]. 02. Futures and Spot Market - **Basis**: As of October 25, 2025, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was - 55 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of October 25, 2025, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was - 88 yuan/ton (- 2), the 05 - 09 spread was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 6), the 09 - 01 spread was 147 yuan/ton (- 4), and the open interest reached 1.9129 million lots [61][64]. 03. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 92.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 199 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.5 yuan/ton. - **Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton; the low - end price of the Henan LNG market was 4500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 550 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2142 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 04. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 74.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.94%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 tons. - **Demand**: As of October 25, 2025, the weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The number of operating production lines was 226, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August reached 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 05. Inventory As of October 25, 2025, the inventory of soda ash factories was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00016 million tons; the inventory available days were 14.11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days. The inventory of heavy soda ash factories was 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons; the inventory of light soda ash factories was 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons [91][94].