Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market shows different trends in prices and profits in various regions, with some prices declining and profit margins narrowing. The soda ash market also experiences price changes, and there is a significant reduction in factory inventories [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, prices of most 5mm glass products in different regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - board dropped from 1147.0 to 1121.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - board decreased from 1126.0 to 1096.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price decreased from 1031.0 to 954.0, a decrease of 77.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1084.0 to 1014.0, a decrease of 70.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China coal - fired profit decreased from 243.3 to 221.6, a decrease of 21.7; North China natural gas profit decreased from - 241.7 to - 263.4, a decrease of 21.7 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price is around 1105, with average trading volume; Hubei's factory low - price is around 1010, with acceptable trading volume. Sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 79, 138, 98, and 112 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1260.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 20.0; Central China heavy soda decreased from 1240.0 to 1200.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased from 1268.0 to 1221.0, a decrease of 47.0; SA01 contract price decreased from 1212.0 to 1175.0, a decrease of 37.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 87.6 to - 117.0, a decrease of 29.4; North China combined - soda profit decreased from 39.7 to - 1.2, a decrease of 40.8 [1]. - **Spot and Inventory**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses is around 1210, and in Shahe warehouses is around 1230. Factory inventories have significantly decreased, and delivery inventories have slightly decreased [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a slight downward trend in prices, with declines ranging from 10 to 130 yuan per ton, primarily due to weak downstream demand and increased supply from restored production facilities [2][3]. Price Trends - As of June 3, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1370-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash on June 3 is 1284.29, down 28.57 from the previous working day, a decrease of 2.18%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1342.86, down 2.86, a decline of 0.21% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash has increased due to the normal operation of the Shilian Chemical soda ash facility, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a subdued purchasing sentiment [2]. - The market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere, with actual transaction volumes falling short of expectations and limited new orders [2]. Futures Market - On June 3, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1185 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, reflecting a daily decline of 0.92%. The highest price during the day was 1190 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1173 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 1,438,866 contracts, an increase of 17,164 contracts [5]. - The futures market continues to show a weak trend, driven by expectations of a weakening fundamental outlook, with supply pressures expected to persist due to new production capacities coming online [5]. Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight increase in overall supply due to concurrent equipment maintenance and resumption of production. However, weak downstream demand and a lack of significant driving factors are anticipated to keep soda ash prices within a narrow fluctuation range in the short term [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 负反馈交易，产业价格承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-03 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.77万吨，比22日+0.64%。行业开工率为76.01%，比22日+0.68个百分点；产能利用率为78.62%，比22 | | | | 日+0.42个百分点。本周2条产线复产点火，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，供应量呈现增长趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，产线点火计划尚 | | | | 不完全明确，预计下周产量或将下降。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。不过由于中美贸易谈判顺利且国内政策利好影响逐步释放，需求亦有支撑。中期地产颓势难挽， | | | | 竣工数据同 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年6月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1110 | 1120 | -10 | -0.89% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 玻璃2505 | 1096 | 1101 | -5 | -0.45% | | | 玻璃2509 | 682 | ે જેટ | -3 | -0.30% | | | 05基差 | 84 | 79 | 5 | 6.33% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Group 1 - The supply of soda ash remains in excess, requiring upstream low operating rates to maintain supply-demand balance, with high visible inventory levels in the midstream and upstream sectors [1][5] - Domestic soda ash is in a capacity expansion cycle, with new capacity of 2.5 million tons expected in 2024 and an additional 900,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025, leading to an overall effective capacity growth rate of approximately 5.6% by 2025 [2][4] - From August 2024, due to domestic soda ash surplus and declining prices, the export window has opened, with some producers actively exploring overseas markets, resulting in a net export status for soda ash [2][4] Group 2 - The float glass production is currently at a low level, with significant losses reported since July 2024, leading to an increase in cold repairs and a decrease in daily melting capacity from 170,000 tons to 158,000 tons [3] - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a rebound, with daily melting capacity increasing to around 100,000 tons by the end of April 2025, although inventory levels are rising, which may hinder further increases [3] - Light soda ash demand growth is projected at 7.2% for 2024, but the growth rate for 2025 is expected to be lower at around 5.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% observed from January to April 2025 [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for soda ash remains oversupplied, with significant new production capacity planned for 2025, including 4.05 million tons from various producers [4] - The current high levels of visible inventory in the upstream sector indicate that while there may be short-term rebounds, sustained low operating rates will be necessary to maintain balance [5] - The forecasted operating rate for 2025 is approximately 83.7%, down from 86.4% in 2024, indicating a continued oversupply situation for soda ash [4]

天胶观点 交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月30日 现货价格及基差 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 14050 -200 -1.42% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -30 245 -275 -112.24% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13800 14400 -600 -4.17% 非标价差 -80 295 -675 -113.45% 品种 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 49.95 51.60 -1.65 -3.20% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 62.75 -0.50 -0.80% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12200 12800 -4.69% -600 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13300 12600 -700 -5.26% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12900 13100 -200 -1.53% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月29日 5月28日 涨跌幅 单 ...

成交一般； 产销：沙河83，湖北129，华东102，华南110 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/21 | 2025/5/27 | | 2025/5/28 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河重碱 | 1310.0 | 1260.0 | 1260.0 | -50.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1315.0 | 1268.0 | 1260.0 | -55.0 | -8.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1280.0 | 1240.0 | 1240.0 | -40.0 | 0.0 | SA01合约 | 1279.0 | 1212.0 | 1207.0 | -72.0 | -5.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1288.0 | 1 ...

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北重碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 华北氨碱法利润 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 华北联碱法利润 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 华北轻碱 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 6 0 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 100 纯碱开工率（%） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5 0 100 150 200 250 纯碱厂库+交割库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Supply in Southeast Asian producing areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, and raw material pressure may gradually emerge. Demand from tire enterprises is in a state of restorative improvement, but tire factory inventories have resumed accumulating, with significant inventory pressure on semi - steel tires. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate weakly, and previous short positions should be held. Attention should be paid to the performance at the 14,000 level [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. The spot price in East China has continued to decline by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while the price in Xinjiang has stabilized. With an expected increase in supply, the price of industrial silicon futures SI2507 has decreased by 305 yuan/ton to 7,610 yuan/ton. The supply side is expected to grow despite weak demand, mainly due to the resumption of production of small enterprises in Southwest China, the commissioning of new production capacities, and the resumption of production of large enterprises. The main demand, the photovoltaic industry chain, continues to weaken, but the organic silicon industry shows some signs of improvement. With limited demand growth, declining raw material costs, and an expected increase in production, the fundamentals remain bearish, and prices are still under pressure [3]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is gradually stabilizing, but the far - month futures price has dropped significantly due to the decline in the price of raw material industrial silicon and the expected increase in supply. The price of PS2507 has decreased by 1,205 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decline of over 3%. Some polysilicon enterprises are resuming production in conjunction with capacity replacement or are still in the commissioning phase. The 06 contract is relatively firm as the first delivery is approaching in June, with a position of about 14,000 lots and no increase in warehouse receipts, which remain at 470 lots. Technically, the polysilicon futures price is still under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in polysilicon production [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Despite the negative pressure of the commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products. The recent production decline due to maintenance is significant, and there is a strong expectation of maintenance in June. Therefore, the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. Considering short - term supply changes, it is more likely that inventories will remain stable. Fundamentally, the resumption of production in the photovoltaic industry has brought some demand for soda ash, but the overall demand has not increased significantly due to the stable and slightly decreasing float glass production capacity. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after the maintenance period ends. From May to June, the implementation of maintenance can be monitored. If maintenance occurs, it will be beneficial for the June - July contracts. Short - term operations can involve short - selling on rebounds for far - month contracts, and calendar spreads between July and September can be considered [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. This week, the spot price of glass has mainly continued to weaken, with widespread price cuts in various regions. During the decline in the futures market, spot - futures traders have mainly sold, affecting the production and sales rate of manufacturers. From April to May, downstream deep - processing orders have gradually improved, and the demand from processing plants has seasonally recovered, leading to a phased improvement in glass supply and demand. However, market expectations are poor, with an expected slowdown in demand after June due to the summer rainy season. The actual fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are moderately bearish. It is expected that the short - term glass price will continue to be under pressure and will operate weakly with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether the 09 contract can break through the 1,000 level, as a breakthrough may lead to further decline [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai has decreased from 14,700 yuan/ton on May 23 to 14,300 yuan/ton on May 26, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.72%. The basis of whole - latex (switched to the 2509 contract) has decreased from 165 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton or 160.61%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased from 14,400 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.35%. The non - standard price difference has increased from - 135 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton or 62.96% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread has increased from - 785 yuan/ton to - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton or 3.18%. The 1 - 5 spread has decreased from - 105 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 19.05%. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from 890 yuan/ton to 885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.56% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production in Thailand decreased by 29.16% to 105,700 tons, the production in Indonesia decreased by 7.26% to 194,100 tons, the production in India decreased by 14.34% to 45,400 tons, and the production in China decreased by 58.10% to 15,800 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires has decreased by 0.11 percentage points to 78.22%, and the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires has decreased by 0.13 percentage points to 64.96%. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07% to 102.002 million units, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 7.87% to 57.39 million units. The total import volume of natural rubber in March increased by 18.07% to 594,100 tons, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April decreased by 9.21% to 690,000 tons [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) has decreased by 0.73% to 614,189 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE has decreased by 38.02% to 43,544 tons [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched S15530 industrial silicon has decreased from 8,650 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The basis (based on oxygen - enriched SI5530) has decreased from 770 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 11.04%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon has decreased from 9,500 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 1.05%. The basis (based on SI4210) has decreased from 820 yuan/ton to 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 16.46%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon has remained unchanged at 8,020 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread has remained unchanged at - 30 yuan/ton, the 2507 - 2508 spread has decreased from - 30 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 16.67%, the 2508 - 2509 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00%, the 2509 - 2510 spread has increased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 40.00%, and the 2510 - 2511 spread has decreased from - 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 20.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 300,800 tons, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55% to 167,500 tons, the production in Yunnan increased by 9.35% to 13,500 tons, and the production in Sichuan increased by 145.65% to 11,300 tons. The national operating rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%, the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased by 22.18% to 60.74%, the operating rate in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% to 18.13%, and the operating rate in Sichuan increased by 1389.80% to 7.30%. The production of organic silicon DMC in April decreased by 8.04% to 172,800 tons, the production of polysilicon decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 5.28% to 610,000 tons, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 1.64% to 60,500 tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang has decreased by 6.95% to 187,400 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Yunnan has increased by 1.26% to 24,100 tons, the factory - warehouse inventory in Sichuan has decreased by 0.44% to 22,500 tons, the social inventory has decreased by 2.84% to 582,000 tons, the warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 1.00% to 324,600 tons, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased by 5.06% to 257,400 tons [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type reclaimed feedstock, P - type cauliflower feedstock, and N - type granular silicon has remained unchanged at 36,500 yuan/ton, 30,000 yuan/ton, and 34,000 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of N - type feedstock (average price) has increased from 410 yuan/ton to 1,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 293.90%, and the basis of cauliflower feedstock (average price) has increased from 5,910 yuan/ton to 7,115 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,205 yuan/ton or 20.39% [5]. Futures Price and Month - to - Month Spreads - The price of PS2506 has decreased from 36,090 yuan/ton to 34,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,205 yuan/ton or 3.34%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread has increased from 1,105 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 90.05%, the PS2507 - PS2508 spread has increased from 735 yuan/ton to 852 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton or 16.33%, the PS2508 - PS2509 spread has increased from 265 yuan/ton to 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton or 32.08%, the PS2509 - PS2510 spread has decreased from 270 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 57.41%, the PS2510 - PS2511 spread has increased from 80 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton or 137.50%, and the PS2511 - PS2512 spread has decreased from - 1,715 yuan/ton to - 1,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 1.17% [5]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly: The silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13,300 GM, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 21,500 tons. Monthly: In April, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.73% to 95,400 tons, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 69.49% to 10,000 tons, the polysilicon export volume decreased by 37.06% to 13,000 tons, the net polysilicon export volume increased by 127.44% to 3,000 tons, the silicon wafer production increased by 14.95% to 58,350 GM, the silicon wafer import volume increased by 46.90% to 900 tons, the silicon wafer export volume increased by 7.13% to 6,300 tons, and the silicon wafer net export volume increased by 2.64% to 5,500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 260,000 tons, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18,950 GM, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,180 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,310 yuan/ton, the Central China price decreased by 0.88% to 1,120 yuan/ton, and the South China price remained unchanged at 1,320 yuan/ton. The price of Glass 2505 increased by 1.25% to 1,130 yuan/ton, and the price of Glass 2509 increased by 1.90% to 1,019 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 21.88% to 50 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,500 yuan/ton, the East China price remained unchanged at 1,450 yuan/ton, the Central China price remained unchanged at 1,400 yuan/ton, and the Northwest price remained unchanged at 1,120 yuan/ton. The price of Soda Ash 2505 decreased by 0.85% to 1,288 yuan/ton, and the price of Soda Ash 2509 increased by 0.08% to 1,254 yuan/ton. The 05 - 7 spread increased by 5.47% to 212 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.04% to 78.63%, the weekly soda ash production decreased by 2.05% to 663,800 tons, the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 156,700 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged at 99,990 tons. The price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% to 21 yuan [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46% to 67,769,000 weight boxes, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06% to 1.6768 million tons, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 0.82% to 368,000 tons, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged at 18.1 days [6]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year) - The new construction area increased by

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/5/22 | | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/20 | | 2025/5/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/20 | | 2025/5/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1173.0 | 1138.0 | 1138.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1046.0 | 1025.0 | 1034.0 | -12.0 | 9.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1164.0 | 1130.0 | 1130.0 | -34.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1098.0 | 1081.0 | 1088.0 | -10.0 | 7.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低 ...