Overview of the Development of China's Interbank Interest Rate Derivatives Market - The article reviews the development of China's interbank interest rate derivatives market over the past twenty years, highlighting key characteristics such as the diversification of trading varieties, the increasing variety of market participants, the improvement of trading and clearing methods, the expansion of market boundaries, the diversification of application scenarios, steady progress in opening up, and the continuous enhancement of services to the real economy [1][2]. Historical Development of Interest Rate Derivatives Market 1. Initial Exploration Period (2005-2014) - The first RMB interest rate swap transaction occurred in October 2005, marking the official start of the market. By 2014, the trading volume surged from 30 billion yuan to 4 trillion yuan [2][4]. - Market participants were primarily financial institutions, with commercial banks focusing on hedging against interest rate risks [3]. 2. Accelerated Development Period (2014-2019) - In 2014, the Shanghai Clearing House began providing centralized clearing services for RMB interest rate swaps, significantly reducing counterparty credit risk and enhancing market liquidity. The trading volume reached 20 trillion yuan by 2018, five times the volume in 2014 [4][5]. 3. Maturing Period (2019-Present) - The market has seen a diversification of trading varieties and participants, with the introduction of LPR-linked interest rate swaps and standard interest rate swap services. The trading volume has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually in recent years [5][6][7]. Current Status of the Interest Rate Derivatives Market - The annual trading volume of interest rate derivatives has grown from 30 billion yuan to 30 trillion yuan over the past two decades, indicating high growth rates. However, the overall scale remains small compared to international markets, with significant potential for further development [10][11]. - The number of market participants has increased, but the market structure remains relatively flat, indicating a need for further diversification of participant types [11][12]. Recommendations for Market Development 1. Promote Market Segmentation and Market Maker System - Establishing a market maker system can enhance liquidity and risk management, allowing large financial institutions to act as a buffer during market volatility [13][14]. 2. Increase Market Varieties and Improve Yield Curve - Introducing interest rate futures and enhancing the accuracy of pricing for short-term interest rates can improve the effectiveness of hedging strategies [15]. 3. Improve Exit Mechanisms for Existing Transactions - Developing more flexible exit mechanisms for existing transactions can encourage participation and increase trading volumes [16]. Conclusion - Over the past twenty years, China's interbank interest rate derivatives market has matured significantly, with a diverse range of products and improved liquidity. The market is expected to continue evolving towards greater internationalization, diversification, and specialization, contributing to the overall development of China's financial market [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias", for stock index options is "probability of volatility decline is relatively high", and for treasury bond futures is "maintaining oscillation" [7][8][10] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the stock market has recovered, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark, and there are signs of incremental funds entering the market. The stock index option market shows signs of recovery, but there may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The treasury bond futures market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the central bank's operations [7][8][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the equity market oscillated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3500-point mark. Non-metallic materials, telecommunications, and electronics led the gains, while banks and public utilities, which were relatively strong yesterday, ranked lower. The market rotation speed remains relatively fast. The sentiment has recovered, with market trading volume enlarging to around 1.5 trillion, significant increase in futures positions and narrowing of discounts, and the number of limit-up stocks remaining at around 70. There is a risk of missing out on the market, and if the market continues, attention can be paid to the possibility of adding long positions in IM contracts on dips. The operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the underlying assets rose again, with the GEM ETF leading the gains, rising 2.32%, and the SSE 50 ETF rising 0.6%. Driven by the rise in the underlying assets, the liquidity in the options market recovered rapidly, with the trading volume increasing by about 95%, and the trading volume of the GEM ETF options exceeding that of the 300 ETF options. Most contracts saw a slight increase in volatility. There may be risks of decline in both volatility and the index. The volatility trend strategy is to pay attention to the morning volatility and short volatility on rallies, and the main strategy is the covered call strategy [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures declined across the board. The strong performance of the equity market suppressed the intraday performance of the T main contract, but there was a slight rebound in the market at the end of the session, indicating that short sellers may have some profit-taking motivation. In the cash bond market, the central bank further net withdrew funds, and the funding rate may not decline further. With the tax payment at the middle of the month and the MLF withdrawal, the funding liquidity may fluctuate more. The market lacks catalytic factors in the short term, and the odds may decline after the previous decline in interest rates to a low level. The operation suggestions include maintaining an oscillating trend strategy, paying attention to short hedging at low basis levels, appropriately paying attention to basis widening, and the mid-term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [8][10] Economic Calendar - It lists the economic data release schedule for the current week, including the retail sales annual rate in the Eurozone in May, the CPI and PPI annual rates in China in June, the M2 money supply annual rate in China in June, the cumulative new RMB loans in China in June, and the cumulative social financing scale in China in June [11] Important Information and News Tracking - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission's Chief Executive Officer, Leung Fung Yee, said at the Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025 that they have been actively cooperating with mainland regulatory authorities to promote the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters in the Hong Kong Stock Connect. The technical preparations are progressing smoothly, and they aim to announce the implementation details to the market soon. They also hope to establish an offshore treasury bond commercial repurchase market in Hong Kong. A new round of anti-"involution" competition has begun, covering both traditional industries such as steel and cement and emerging industries such as photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries. The anti-involution policy should be implemented gradually and tailored to different industries [12] Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [13][17][29]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has reported significant growth in the Swap Connect since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction amounts increasing from 50 billion yuan to 380 billion yuan by May 2025, representing a 660% growth [1] - The expansion of the Swap Connect reflects strong demand from international investors and is expected to continue growing as the internationalization of the renminbi accelerates [1] Summary by Sections Launch and Growth - The Swap Connect officially started on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a first-month transaction amount of 50 billion yuan [1] - By April 2025, the total value of onshore fixed-income products held by international investors reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a 10% increase from the previous year [1] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction amount of 380 billion yuan in May 2025, significantly surpassing expectations [1] Market Impact - The transaction amount of the Swap Connect accounted for approximately 8% of the domestic interest rate swap market as of May 2025 [1] - Since December 2024, the trading volume in the Swap Connect has accelerated, with March 2025 seeing record monthly trading volume and transaction counts [1] Regulatory and Structural Enhancements - The rules governing the Swap Connect have been continuously optimized since its launch, including an expansion of eligible collateral for northbound swaps in January 2025 and an extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [1] - These enhancements are expected to provide breakthroughs for the offshore derivatives market, including improved hedging tools and increased capital efficiency [1] Future Developments - HKEX plans to expand the product types available in the Swap Connect later this year, including contracts referencing the one-year loan market quotation rate [1] - The share of global trade settled in renminbi has reached nearly 6%, surpassing the euro, with cross-border renminbi settlements between China and ASEAN countries exceeding 5.8 trillion yuan in 2024, more than double that of 2021 [1] Investor Sentiment - The Swap Connect has become the preferred interest rate risk hedging tool for offshore investment institutions, with some investors shifting from the NDIRS market to the Swap Connect for risk hedging and arbitrage opportunities [1] - Analysts suggest that narrowing NDD spreads will attract more overseas investors, enhancing market participation and activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swap Connect has shown significant growth since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction volumes increasing from 50 billion RMB to 380 billion RMB by May 2025, reflecting a 660% growth and indicating strong demand from international investors for this investment channel [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Growth - The Swap Connect officially launched on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a transaction volume of 50 billion RMB in its first month [2]. - By the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction volume reaching 380 billion RMB, significantly surpassing initial expectations [3]. - As of May 2025, the transaction volume of the Swap Connect accounted for approximately 8% of China's onshore interest rate swap market [4]. Group 2: Market Infrastructure and Optimization - Since its launch, the Swap Connect has undergone continuous optimization, including the expansion of eligible collateral and the extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [6]. - The Swap Connect is seen as a breakthrough for offshore derivative markets, providing effective hedging tools for long-term investors and enhancing market price discovery [7]. - Future plans include expanding product types to include interest rate swap contracts based on the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), aimed at providing better benchmarks for offshore investors [7]. Group 3: Risk Management and Investor Participation - The Swap Connect has become the preferred interest rate risk hedging tool for offshore investment institutions, with some investors shifting from the NDIRS market to the Swap Connect market [8]. - The narrowing of the NDD spread and improved market depth for RMB interest rate swaps are expected to attract more offshore investors to the Swap Connect, enhancing the market's activity and maturity [8]. - The collaboration between the Northbound Swap Connect and Shanghai Clearing House facilitates centralized clearing services, mitigating counterparty credit risks and promoting rapid transaction volume growth [8]. Group 4: Future Demand and Recommendations - As international investor interest in RMB interest rate swaps grows, there is an increasing demand for enhanced infrastructure and product offerings within the Swap Connect [9]. - Recommendations include expanding transaction limits and diversifying product types to meet the rising needs of offshore investors, as well as optimizing contract compression services and removing single transaction volume limits [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial derivatives market is that stocks and bonds will maintain a volatile trend. In the short - term, all three markets of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures should be dealt with using a volatile mindset [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the All - A Index fluctuating less than 0.4%. Real estate and public utilities led the gains, while telecommunications and healthcare led the losses. There were 76 daily limit stocks, concentrated in concepts such as electricity and stablecoins. - Recently, the market has shown a trend of decreasing trading volume. Uncertainty from tariff news and profit - taking sentiment due to the decline of previous hot sectors have affected market confidence. In the short - term, it should be treated as a volatile market, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month contract basis points closed at - 20.17, - 17.93, - 41.21, and - 59.94 respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.77, - 0.49, - 3.97, and - 9.74 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts were 17.6, 5.2, 54.8, and 79.2 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.4, - 0.6, 1.6, and 3.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 22721, - 11893, - 15589, and - 30422 hands [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Considering that some underlying assets reached local highs last week, there is a high risk of a phased correction at the beginning of this week. Although the underlying assets showed signs of correction, the amplitude was low yesterday, and the liquidity at the beginning of the week was weak, decreasing by more than 50% compared to last Friday. - The volatility of ChiNext ETF and 500ETF decreased significantly. For ChiNext ETF, the put - side volatility led the decline, indicating short - term put - position closing. For 500ETF options, the put - side increased while the call - side volatility decreased, suggesting a sign of building a collar strategy. - The sentiment of trading - type funds is neutral, and there is still an adjustment risk in the short - term. For volatility trend strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities when volatility spikes. In terms of varieties, 50 and 300ETF options have a higher safety margin. The main strategy should maintain covered calls to enhance returns in a volatile environment [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The T main contract opened slightly higher and strengthened, then adjusted with a decline in open interest, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment among market bulls. It rebounded in the afternoon but still maintained a low - level oscillation overall. - The central bank net - withdrew more than 200 billion yuan yesterday, and the overnight repurchase rate slightly increased, indicating that the capital interest rate may be bottoming out, which may cause some disturbances to the cash - bond market. - However, the June manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, and tariff policies are still uncertain. New factors such as the introduction of new quantitative regulations in the stock market may also affect risk appetite. Therefore, the bond market may also be supported, and a volatile mindset should be adopted in the short - term [3]. - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 49192, 59821, 35462, and 55668 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 11647, 16847, 9275, and - 15984 hands. The open interest was 216298, 157986, 115517, and 122562 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 2158, 81, - 1682, and - 16 hands [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual growth rate of retail sales in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast value of 1.2%. - On July 9, China will release the annual growth rate of CPI and PPI in June, with forecast values of 0% and - 3.2% respectively. - On July 10, China will release the annual growth rate of M2 money supply in June, with a forecast value of 8.2%, as well as the cumulative new RMB loans and social financing scale in June [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched today and successfully raised funds, approaching or exceeding the 3 - billion - yuan fundraising limit. After their establishment, they are expected to bring 30 billion yuan in new scale, and the scale of bond ETFs will soon exceed 400 billion yuan. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan". The first press conference will be held on July 9. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that many positions in the negotiation have changed, and multiple new proposals were received last night. He expects to announce trade - related news within 48 hours. He announced that the overall tariff on Vietnam will be increased to 20%, and that the positions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will follow the president's wishes [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.

Core Viewpoint - The Credit Risk Mitigation Warrant (CRMW) serves as a "credit bridge" to alleviate financing difficulties for private enterprises, with recent revisions to the operational guidelines aimed at enhancing its effectiveness in supporting the real economy [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections CRMW Overview - CRMW is a key tool for supporting bond financing for private enterprises and risk-sharing for technology innovation bonds, functioning similarly to a "credit insurance policy" for specific debts [2]. - Since the introduction of the CRMW model linked to bond issuance in 2018, approximately 150 billion has been created, supporting over 340 billion in bond issuances for more than a hundred enterprises [2]. Recent Developments - The inclusion of "debt restructuring" as a credit event in CRMW products for technology companies marks a significant expansion of risk coverage, enhancing investor confidence and improving financial services for the real economy [3]. Revisions to Operational Guidelines - The recent revisions to the operational guidelines include four main optimizations to better support the financing of the real economy: 1. Establishing a comprehensive CRMW regulatory framework that includes self-regulatory rules, business guidelines, operational details, and standard texts [4]. 2. Removing restrictions on CRMW business by decoupling the creation institutions from core dealers, allowing more financial and credit enhancement institutions to participate [5]. 3. Strengthening the responsibilities and rights of participants by adding self-regulatory norms and clarifying requirements for information disclosure, pricing, trading, and management [5]. 4. Setting differentiated requirements based on the characteristics of CRMW, such as simplifying disclosure requirements for financial institutions and allowing for price inquiry methods for bond-linked creations [5].

黄金犹如坐过山车，上周大幅下杀后，本周初便强力反弹，力度之大令人咋舌。从周线看，整体仍处于震荡区间。月线收官时收出十字星，这一形 态为后市走势增添了诸多悬念。技术上十字星是中继信号，并非顶部信号，但震荡格局尚未打破，何时能迎来趋势性行情，仍是未知数。4小时图 上，黄金在黄金分割位50%处难以站稳，主要支阻均线对金价形成压制，下跌风险隐现。3451以来的下降趋势线形成的侧向支撑，也岌岌可危。日 线上金价位于走平的布林中轨，昨日刺破后收回，后市方向不明。但结合前两日收阳且探底回升的态势，后市看多概率增大，或呈现亚盘回落、欧 盘或美盘上扬的走势，目前上方阻力在3344-3349，下方支撑在3321-3315，操作上建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3339-3345做空，损3352，目标看3320-3300。 操作策略2：建议回调3305-3300做多，损3290，目标看3325-3345。 生活除了投资，还有诗和远方，以及徐老师。面对市场，实际上就是面对自己，改正缺点，直面错误，严格律己，不说谎言，才是成功的根本。目 前主要研究现货黄金为主，笔者涉足金融以及金融衍生品分析多年，指导经验丰富，以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the stock market is warm, and the sentiment in the bond market has stabilized. For stock index futures, policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. For stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended. For treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment has shown signs of stabilization [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Policies are starting to focus on manufacturing profits. New hot themes are emerging, with the Hengke Innovation Pharmaceutical Index excluding CXO companies and photovoltaic glass promoting production cuts, accelerating capacity clearance and driving up the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous industries. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizes anti - "involution" in some manufacturing industries, which may boost the inflation chain. In the context of mid - year report announcements, attention to pre - announced performance increases may be strengthened. In a warm - sentiment environment, long positions should be maintained, and IM long positions are recommended [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating with an upward bias [5]. Stock Index Options - **View**: A covered defense strategy is recommended. The trading volume in the options market has been continuously declining, and the trading liquidity is lower than expected. In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators show synchronicity rather than guidance, and the average implied volatility of each option variety has decreased by 0.52%. Given the low liquidity and volatility and the ineffective guidance of sentiment indicators, and the resistance level above the index, a covered defense strategy is advisable [1][5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered defense [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment has stabilized. After recent adjustments, the bond market sentiment stabilized yesterday. The central bank continued net capital injection, with a net injection of 305.8 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The overall funding situation has eased, and the DR007 rate has slightly declined. The policy announced by the National Development and Reform Commission was in line with expectations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The market may be pre - gambling on June PMI data and the central bank's bond - buying restart. However, caution should still be exercised, and attention should be paid to June PMI data and central bank operations [2][5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillating. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to basis widening. Curve strategy: Steepening the yield curve in the medium - term has higher odds [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Oscillating [5][6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI for June was 52.9, higher than the previous and predicted values of 52. The US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls for June are yet to be announced [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macroeconomics**: From January to May, the added value of large - scale electronic information manufacturing enterprises increased by 11.1% year - on - year, 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall industry and high - tech manufacturing respectively. In May, the added value increased by 10.2% year - on - year. Mobile phone production was 570 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%, with smartphone production at 450 million units, a 2.1% decrease. Microcomputer equipment production was 130 million units, a 5.5% increase, and integrated circuit production was 193.5 billion pieces, a 6.8% increase [7]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high - quality development of innovative drugs, including supporting the use of healthcare insurance data for innovative drug R & D, strengthening information sharing among medical, healthcare insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors, and providing necessary healthcare insurance data services for innovative drug R & D on the premise of data security and compliance [8].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures, including the three major indices and the Russell 2000, experienced a decline of up to 0.2% during the early trading session on July 1 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the extension of the "Northbound Swap Connect" product contract period to 30 years, enhancing the interconnectivity of the domestic and foreign interest rate derivatives market [1] - On the launch day of the optimization measures, 25 domestic and foreign institutions actively participated in transactions of over 10 years RMB interest rate swaps, with a total trading volume of 1.53 billion RMB [1] - The optimization will improve the yield curve, fill the gap for ultra-long-term interest rate management tools, and enhance the diversity of cross-border investment strategies [1] Group 2 - Since its launch in May 2023, the "Northbound Swap Connect" has seen increasing trading activity, with a cumulative transaction volume of 7.16 trillion RMB by June 2025, attracting 82 foreign institutions [2] - The "Northbound Swap Connect" has become a primary channel for foreign investors to manage RMB asset interest rate risks, continuously attracting more foreign capital to increase holdings in Chinese market bonds [2] - Future plans include enriching the product types of the "Swap Connect" and improving the risk management framework to promote the joint development of the financial markets in mainland China and Hong Kong [2]