债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 高价高估新环境，推荐哑铃配置 ——2026 年转债年度投资策略 ❖ 2026 年权益市场展望：流动性强支撑，业绩与主题双线关注 2026 年流动性依然是市场的强支撑。权益市场呵护政策持续推进，权益宽基 指数稳健上行，使得公募规模、险资对股市投资规模等显著增长；股市也有持 续的流动性宽松政策指引，预期 2026 年权益市场流动性将延续强支撑。 主线行情酝酿中，部分行业已躁动。参考往年，至次年春节前后板块轮动的趋 势或将加速，也即进入主线行情酝酿期，而近期部分板块已开始躁动，如商业 航天、CPO 等。 估值抬升至中高区间后，可关注业绩修复。2025 年估值抬升贡献万得全 A 的 主要涨幅，估值水平到历史高位，潜在的估值担忧下：未来净利润及营收增速 预测与估值分位数尚有差距，或反应还有上涨空间；此外部分行业出现较明显 的 ROE 改善。 ❖ 2026 年转债市场展望：供需或逐步修复，估值或以震荡为主 供需：供给端有所改善，净变动延续收缩，债基需求仍有空间。2025 年供给 端新券发行同比增量，但仍处于历史相对低位，往后看供给恢复更依赖监管侧 的变化。供给收缩斜率相 ...

Core Viewpoints - The discussion highlights concerns about the sustainability of massive capital expenditures in AI, suggesting that while there may be potential for individual successful applications, the overall financial viability remains uncertain [3][5][26] - The panelists express skepticism about the current AI investment boom, likening it to past infrastructure investments in China that ultimately did not yield sustainable returns [4][25][26] - There is a consensus that gold may not be a guaranteed investment, with recent actions by central banks, particularly Russia's selling of gold, signaling potential shifts in the market [7][60][62] Group 1: AI Investment Insights - Li Bei emphasizes that the current level of capital expenditure in AI is unsustainable, questioning whether it can generate significant cash flow returns [3][26] - The panelists agree that AI may not be the primary upward driver in the market moving forward and could instead become a downward drag [5][29] - The difficulty of timing exits in a bubble is highlighted, with references to top traders struggling to navigate market peaks [6][49] Group 2: Gold and Currency Perspectives - The recent selling of gold by the Russian central bank is noted as a significant warning sign for the gold market [7][60] - There is a belief that while dollar-denominated gold may not decline significantly, gold priced in RMB could face downward pressure [67] - The undervaluation of the RMB is discussed, with expectations that it may gradually be recognized in international reserves, potentially replacing gold and USD [61][62] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The panelists suggest avoiding chasing bubble assets and instead focusing on resilient companies that can thrive in challenging economic conditions [8][90] - Recommendations include diversifying into non-US value stocks, commodities, and companies involved in AI development that are undervalued [11][91][94] - The importance of maintaining a balanced investment portfolio that allows for peace of mind during market volatility is emphasized [91][95]

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with lithium battery materials seeing price increases, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate futures and related stocks [1] - The total net inflow of funds into ETFs reached 17.1 billion yuan on November 17, with about one-third of ETFs receiving additional investments [1] - The largest battery ETF (159755) saw a net inflow of 361 million yuan, increasing its total size to 16.29 billion yuan, making it the only battery-themed index fund over 10 billion yuan in size [1] Group 2 - The "lonely" Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank ETF (513750) received a net inflow of 310 million yuan, reaching a new high of 25.8 billion yuan after 12 consecutive trading days of being favored by investors [2] - The largest Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (513120) also saw a net inflow of 57 million yuan, accumulating over 1.7 billion yuan in net inflows for November, with a total size of 25.4 billion yuan [2] - The combined size of two innovative drug ETFs managed by GF Fund has exceeded 30 billion yuan, making it the only fund manager with over 30 billion yuan in innovative drug-themed ETFs [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) recorded a net inflow of 145 million yuan, with a total size of 3.82 billion yuan and a year-to-date return of 49.71% [3] - Over the past three complete calendar years (2022-2024), the Shanghai Gold ETF has shown returns of 8.41%, 15.36%, and 26.63%, indicating strong defensive attributes [3] - The market sentiment indicators suggest a neutral zone, with potential opportunities for investors to adjust their positions towards a "barbell strategy," focusing on technology and defensive dividend sectors [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is recommended for a dumbbell - style allocation, while the bond market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a 10 - year high, with the price - rising chain actively advancing. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals led the gains, driven by factors such as increased demand for lithium batteries from energy storage, policy support for new energy integration, and a rebound in international precious metal prices. The preferred allocation of the price - rising chain is gradually being realized, and the cost - effectiveness of value factor allocation has increased [3][7]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 8.47, - 1.07, - 19.89, - 24.58 respectively, with changes of - 7.57, - 3.56, - 0.64, 3.6 points compared to the previous trading day; their inter - period spreads (current - month - next - month) were 16.6, 3.8, 66.4, 87.6 points, with changes of - 0.4, - 0.2, - 2.4, - 0.8 points; and their positions changed by - 13919, - 1167, - 19353, - 20677 lots respectively [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a combination of dividend ETF and IM long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: After the market recovered, the trading volume of each option variety showed a slight weakening trend. The weighted implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options decreased by 1.18%, and the position PCR of each variety strengthened, indicating a warming of market sentiment. However, from a weekly perspective, the varieties were weak first and then strong, still at a weekly high. Due to the recent rotation of market styles and the lack of a clear capital main line, it is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold covered options [7][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by - 0.10%, - 0.08%, - 0.01%, and - 0.26% respectively. The bond market was weak, affected by the rebound of the A - share market and the rebound of commodity - related varieties. The overnight shibor rate was 1.3150%, down 10.00 basis points, indicating relatively abundant market liquidity. The central bank achieved a net injection of 9.72 billion yuan through 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, which helped to stabilize market expectations. However, the bond market interest rate rose, and the decline of treasury bond futures may be mainly due to the improvement of market risk preference. Currently, after the treasury bond trading, the bond market has been in a volatile state, and the focus of market speculation is when and how the redemption new rules will be implemented [4][8]. - **Data**: Data on trading volume, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis points of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts are provided, along with their daily changes [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, expect a slightly stronger and volatile trend; for hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels; for basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage strategies and basis widening; for curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Economic data such as China's new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply growth rate from January to October 2025 are presented, along with predicted and actual values. Data for China's October social consumer goods retail总额 annual rate and above - scale industrial added value annual rate are yet to be released [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The central bank announced that in the first 10 months, RMB loans increased by 1.497 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment accumulated to 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 383 billion yuan. M2, M1, and M0 data are also provided [11]. - The Financial Regulatory总局 will release a revised "Management Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support corporate mergers, acquisitions, and transformations. It is also researching policies to promote the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [12]. - US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government shutdown [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend of the stock index futures market is expected to be moderately bullish; the stock index options market is expected to be volatile; the Treasury bond futures market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and moderately bullish in the long - term [7][8][9] 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index futures market, under the condition of shrinking trading volume, the market risk preference continues to converge. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style asset allocation. In the stock index options market, as the market style rotates and no clear capital main line has been formed, it is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns. In the Treasury bond futures market, the market lacks a clear direction in the short - term and is in a volatile consolidation phase, but is expected to be moderately bullish in the long - term [7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened high and closed low, barely holding above 4000 points, with trading volume shrinking to 2 trillion yuan. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices retreated, and the TMT sectors led the decline. The coal sector also led the decline due to concerns about a potential reduction in pit - mouth coal prices. Low - position sectors such as commerce and retail, real estate, and steel led the gains. The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy report may support the fundamentals of bank stocks and increase the expectation of counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustment. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETFs and long positions in IM contracts [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety showed a slight weakening trend, and the option sentiment index was weak. The PCR of technology - sector options decreased significantly on Monday, and the PCR of option positions of all varieties declined on Tuesday, indicating a cold market sentiment. The implied volatility of options showed mixed trends. It is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns [8] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the prices of Treasury bond futures were volatile and unchanged. The yields of most interest - rate bonds declined, and the 5 - year and 7 - year China Development Bank bonds performed well. The central bank significantly increased net investment in the open market, and the supply and demand of funds in the inter - bank market tended to balance, but interest rates remained firm. In the short - term, the bond market lacks a clear direction and is in a volatile consolidation phase, but is expected to be moderately bullish in the long - term. Operation suggestions include maintaining caution in trend strategies, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels in hedging strategies, appropriately paying attention to basis widening in basis strategies, and appropriately paying attention to curve steepening in curve strategies [8][9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include China's new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply growth rate in October, the US CPI annual rate in October, China's year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, proposing to deepen financial reform and opening - up, and improve the macro - economic governance effectiveness. The US has suspended the implementation of the export - control penetration rule, and the two sides will continue to discuss the arrangement after one - year suspension. As of now, the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 infrastructure REITs projects to the CSRC, of which 83 have been issued and listed, with a total issuance fund of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan [11][12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the need to monitor data in the stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures markets, but specific data are not detailed [13][17][29]

- The "A-Share Market Timing Model" evaluates the overall directional judgment of the A-share market using four dimensions: valuation, sentiment, funds, and technicals. The model generates daily signals with values of 0, ±1, representing neutral, bullish, and bearish views, respectively. The model's logic includes mean reversion for valuation and sentiment, and trend continuation for funds and technicals[2][9][15] - The "Style Timing Model" favors a barbell structure of dividend and small-cap styles. For the dividend style, the model uses the relative momentum of the CSI Dividend Index to the CSI All Share Index, the 10Y-1Y term spread, and the interbank pledged repo transaction volume. For the small-cap style, the model employs a trend model based on the difference in momentum and trading volume between small-cap and large-cap stocks[3][17][21] - The "Industry Rotation Model" uses genetic programming to directly extract factors from the volume, price, and valuation characteristics of industry indices. The model updates its factor library quarterly and rebalances weekly, selecting the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation[4][29][34] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" employs a macro factor risk parity framework, selecting four macro risk sources: growth above/below expectations and inflation above/below expectations. The model actively overweights favored quadrants based on macro expectation momentum, adjusting monthly[5][39][42] - The "A-Share Market Timing Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 36.03%, with an excess return of 8.86% over the Wind All A Index, which had a return of 27.18%[2][9] - The "Style Timing Model" for the dividend style yielded a year-to-date return of 25.04%, with an excess return of 7.83% over the benchmark, which had a return of 17.21%[17][20] - The "Style Timing Model" for the small-cap style achieved a year-to-date return of 78.29%, with an excess return of 30.25% over the benchmark, which had a return of 48.04%[22][27] - The "Industry Rotation Model" achieved a year-to-date return of 40.67%, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.96 percentage points[4][32] - The "China Domestic All-Weather Enhanced Portfolio" achieved a year-to-date return of 11.10%, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.22, a maximum drawdown of 2.67%, and a Calmar ratio of 5.15[5][40][43]

Core Viewpoint - A-share listed companies are experiencing a surge in cash dividends as the third-quarter reports are being disclosed, with a total of 60 companies announcing dividend plans amounting to 8.699 billion yuan, indicating a strong focus on dividend assets in the market [1] Group 1: Dividend Distribution - 60 A-share listed companies have disclosed third-quarter dividend plans, with a cumulative payout of 8.699 billion yuan, including 21 companies planning to distribute over 100 million yuan [1] - The trend of dividend distribution is attracting market attention towards dividend-themed ETFs, with significant capital inflows observed [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has seen a net inflow of 1.498 billion yuan over six consecutive trading days, making it the only product in the dividend-themed ETF category to exceed 1 billion yuan in net inflows during this period [1] - The average daily trading volume of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF has doubled to 893 million yuan since October 13, 2025, compared to an average of 419 million yuan earlier in the year [1] Group 3: Fund Growth - The fund size of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF reached a new high of 24.927 billion yuan as of October 24, 2025, marking a continuous positive growth over 12 trading days since the holiday [1] - The ETF is currently the only dividend-themed fund with a size exceeding 24 billion yuan in the market [1] Group 4: Market Conditions - The average dividend yield of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF is 4.20%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.85%, indicating a favorable yield spread [1] - Market sentiment indicators suggest a neutral zone, but the willingness of investors to "buy the dip" remains, indicating potential opportunities for allocation in defensive dividend sectors [1] Group 5: Fundholder Statistics - As of June 30, 2025, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF's linked funds have a total of 1.1631 million holders, making it the only dividend-themed index fund with over 1 million holders in the market [1] Group 6: Management Expertise - Huatai-PineBridge Fund has over 18 years of management experience in dividend-themed index investments, managing a total of 46.457 billion yuan across five different dividend ETF products [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative, it gives a "neutral" outlook, indicating a "hold" or "neutral" stance on trading in these markets [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the stock index futures market has ebbed, with the All-A Index falling for two consecutive days, a significant reduction in trading volume, and multiple signs of weakening capital. It is recommended to shift to a barbell-style allocation and consider reducing positions [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market performed weakly. It is recommended to continue holding put options for defense [1][6]. - The bond market has returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. If the stock market continues to adjust, the bullish sentiment in the bond market may further increase; otherwise, the bond market may give back its gains. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the stock market [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The All-A Index fell 1.19% for two consecutive days, with military, non-bank, and software sectors leading the decline. Trading volume shrank to around 2.4 trillion, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4,000. There are multiple signs of weakening capital, such as the breaking of the China Securities Convertible Bond and Microcap Index, the widening of the discount of IC and IM, and the decline in the proportion of margin trading purchases [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in IM + dividend style or hold half of the long positions in IM [6]. Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: The equity market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%. The trading volume of each option variety decreased, the PCR of open interest continued to decline, and the implied volatility showed mixed trends [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold put options for defense [1][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The bond market returned to the stock-bond seesaw logic. The stock market was weak, and the Shanghai Composite Index adjusted, which may have driven up risk aversion and bullish sentiment in the bond market. The open interest of the main contracts of each variety increased, especially the T and TL contracts [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is neutral. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to long-end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to steepening the yield curve [6][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on the EU's unemployment rate, CPI, core CPI, PPI, and the US's ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment data from September 1 - 4, 2025 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held its second meeting, aiming to strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and promote the stable and healthy development of the bond market [10]. - According to the China Passenger Car Association, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 14.698 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 2.409 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 17.934 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12% [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the text [11][15][27].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major indices in A-shares, H-shares, and US stocks in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index yielding returns of 20%, 18.68%, and 13.61% respectively [1][4] - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned as a key battleground for global valuation recovery and is experiencing a structural bull market driven by AI, hard technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [2][5] - Recent capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have favored sectors such as banking, non-bank financials, consumer discretionary, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a preference for a "high dividend and tech growth" investment strategy [5][10] Group 2 - The average volatility of the Hang Seng Tech Index from 2006 to 2024 was 8,129 points, which decreased to 7,713 points from 2015 to 2024. The index experienced a high-low volatility of approximately 6,100 points in the first five months of 2025, which is 79% of the ten-year average [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is limited to 30 constituent stocks, while the Hong Kong Tech Index, which covers 50 companies in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumption, and new energy vehicles, is gaining attention due to its comprehensive coverage of major tech players [8] - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750) has achieved a net value growth rate of 27.09% in the first half of the year, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index by 7 percentage points [8] Group 3 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has a current dividend yield of 7.93%, surpassing bank interest rates and 10-year government bonds, making it attractive to institutional investors [10] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 7.11, which is lower than its dividend yield, indicating a significant valuation discrepancy that appeals to long-term capital [10] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has risen by 16.78% in the first half of the year, achieving 36 new historical highs and doubling its fund size [10][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese equity assets are showing long-term allocation value amid global asset rebalancing, with a focus on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, and new consumption [1][2] - Jiashi Fund expresses optimism for the next 6-12 months, citing China's stable growth policies and the ongoing development of new industries as key drivers for global economic growth [1] - Jiashi Fund recommends a "barbell" strategy for equity assets, focusing on high-growth technology assets supported by liquidity and high-dividend, cyclical assets [1] Group 2 - Hu Yu, manager at Tianhong Fund, emphasizes the importance of the rotation between consumption and technology as a core strategy for the second half of the year, highlighting the early stage of consumption recovery [2] - Fuguo Fund notes that the AI sector is expected to be a central theme for technology investment in the second half, driven by significant cost reductions and a surge in domestic AI investments [2] - The report indicates that the upstream of the AI industry chain is experiencing a convergence of advantages compared to the mid and downstream sectors, suggesting potential for broader market growth [2]