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“反内卷”预期强化!一图梳理受益概念
天天基金网· 2025-07-07 12:26
财经图解 . 财经大事早知道,关注东方财富股票! 日前,高层会议提出"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争,推动落后产能有序退出","反内卷"预期强化, 相关概念股近期表现较强。 政策发布后,各行业纷纷响应。头部光伏玻璃企业宣布自7月起集体减产30%,以缓解行业"内卷式"竞 争;中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》,明确优 化产业结构;钢铁行业部分钢厂也收到减排限产通知。这些举措迅速传导至市场端,近日国内期货市场 铁矿石、多晶硅、焦煤等品种均有一定的上涨。 以下文章来源于财经图解 ,作者乘桴于海 仅供投资者参考,不构成投资建议 免责声明 文章转载自公众号"财经图解",以上观点来自相关机构,不代表天天基金的观点,不对观点 的准确性和完整性做任何保证。收益率数据仅供参考,过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表 分享、点赞、在看 顺手三连越来越有钱 内卷式恶性竞争是指行业内企业为争夺有限市场份额,通过低价倾销、重复建设等方式过度消耗资源, 导致全行业利润下降、创新停滞的现象。反内卷政策旨在通过规范市场竞争、淘汰落后产能,引导行业 从"量的扩张"转向 "质的提升"。 申万宏源表示,"反内 ...
供应端持续减产,光伏玻璃行业深陷亏损
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 09:13
周度报告——光伏玻璃 供应端持续减产,光伏玻璃行业深陷亏损 [T报ab告le_日R期an:k] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现(截至 2025/7/4 当周): 截至 7 月 4 日,国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜(面板)主流价格为 10.5 元/平米,环比上周下跌;3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 18 元/平 米,环比上周持平。当前光伏玻璃价格创历史新低,市场竞争加 剧。 能 随着行业价格持续下行,利润大幅亏损倒逼光伏玻璃厂家开始加 速减产。基于行业呼吁,龙头企业于七月初带头行动。上周有五 条光伏玻璃产线冷修,一个窑炉堵口。预计本周行业减产将持续, 计划减产窑炉 1-2 座,不排除有计划外减产的情况。 源 化 上周需求端订单表现一般,周初厂家发货节奏较缓,新月需求并 不乐观。短期需求端难以有较快恢复,供大于需局面将延续。 工 目前光伏玻璃行业库存持续上行,虽然行业减产仍在继续,但由 于需求端短期难以有较快恢复,供大于需局面依然存在,本周库 存预计将继续上行。 上周行业毛利润继续下滑,亏损程度进一步加深。近期行业累库 压力逐步加剧,部分企业低价加速抢单出货,光伏玻璃利润水平 持续下滑。 ★ ...
“反内卷”,集体减产!
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "anti-involution" measures being implemented across various industries in China, particularly in steel, photovoltaic, and cement sectors, aimed at addressing excessive competition and promoting high-quality development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Actions - Major photovoltaic glass companies have collectively decided to reduce production by 30% starting in July to alleviate "involution" competition [1]. - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to further promote "anti-involution" and stabilize growth in the cement industry [1]. - Some steel mills have received notifications for production cuts, indicating a proactive approach to managing supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Market Response - The market has responded positively to the proactive production cuts across various industries, with analysts noting that the photovoltaic sector is facing weakening demand and price pressures [1]. - Open-source securities research indicates that prices for multiple products in the photovoltaic industry have fallen below cash cost levels, necessitating the production cuts to improve supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The recent "anti-involution" measures are part of a broader governmental strategy to regulate excessive competition, with the Central Economic Committee emphasizing the need for orderly exit of outdated production capacity [2][3]. - The new revisions to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law aim to address "involution" competition, indicating a shift towards legal regulation of market practices [2]. - The focus of the current "anti-involution" initiative is on enhancing policy and market mechanisms, with an emphasis on industry self-discipline and the promotion of high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current round of "anti-involution" is expected to lead to a shift from low-cost, homogeneous competition to high-end, differentiated competition in manufacturing [3]. - There is an anticipation of more targeted "anti-involution" policies being introduced, which could provide a turning point for supply-side adjustments in industries like photovoltaic, steel, and cement [3].
光伏玻璃减产及“反内卷”电话会
2025-07-07 00:51
光伏玻璃减产及"反内卷"电话会 20250706 摘要 光伏玻璃市场价格持续承压,当前成交价约为 10 至 10.5 元/平方米, 低于去年最低水平 11.5 元/平方米,主要受需求预期疲软和库存高企影 响,行业面临较大的盈利压力。 行业减产行动增加,已有五条生产线冷修,减产约 3,600 吨,实际在产 量约为 9.2 万吨,名义产能为 9.7 万吨。尽管部分企业计划进一步减产, 但库存仍维持在 31 至 32 天的高位。 6 月全球组件产量接近 50GW,预计 7 月需求维持在 50GW 左右,国内 需求预计约 45GW。行业内部讨论减产 30%,但实际落实难度大,目 前仅实现不到 10%的减产。 工信部部长亲自召开会议,探讨产业链减产措施,包括治理低价竞争、 提升产品品质及推动落后产能退出。成立工作组与工信部和发改委对接, 落实中央反内卷精神。 减产面临挑战,全面停产不现实,需逐步实施。当前国内合理生产量约 为 8 万吨,国外总产能不到 1 万吨。各企业对减产方案意见不一,实际 执行需根据市场情况调整。 Q&A 光伏玻璃行业在二季度和三季度的供需情况如何变化? 二季度光伏玻璃需求因抢装效应显著下降,价格也 ...
光伏玻璃行业加速推进“反内卷” 多家企业或7月份起减产
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-04 16:08
7月4日,光伏概念板块走强,截至当日收盘,霍普股份、韶能股份、亚玛顿、东材科技等多只光伏概念 股盘中涨停,迪森股份、国际复材、协鑫能科等多只个股跟涨,市场热度提升。 "从时间节点看,近期光伏玻璃企业减产的时机确已到来。5月份抢装潮结束后,国内光伏行业需求骤 降,组件排产下降,光伏玻璃需求减弱、价格快速下跌。在这样的背景下,行业自发减产是合理的选 择。"中信建投期货能化高级分析师胡鹏说。 上海有色网提供的信息显示,预计7月份国内光伏玻璃产量将下降至45GW水平。供应量的收缩有望对 市场价格形成支撑作用,缓解企业持续亏损的困难局面。 消息面上,有传闻称"国内十大光伏玻璃厂商召开会议,决定自7月份起实施集体减产30%的计划"。上 海有色网光伏玻璃分析师郑天鸿表示,部分光伏玻璃企业前期已经规划好的减产计划,正在陆续执行, 7月份减产是大概率事件,未来减产动作可能还会延伸至三季度。 供需失衡倒逼减产 近年来,光伏玻璃行业经历了快速扩张期,导致供需关系急剧恶化。国金证券发布研报显示,截至2024 年末,光伏玻璃在产日熔量达92490吨,而需求端因组件产量连续下滑,库存飙升至45天,接近"爆 仓"临界点。 价格方面,隆众资 ...
【建筑建材】政策信号扭转预期,重点关注光伏玻璃、浮法玻璃、水泥、碳纤维行业——中央财经委提出“治理反内卷”精神学习(孙伟风)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-04 14:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent policy signals from the Chinese government aimed at addressing issues of low-price competition and promoting high-quality development in various industries, particularly focusing on the construction materials sector and the photovoltaic industry [2][3]. Policy Signals and Market Reactions - The meeting chaired by Xi Jinping emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market and to guide enterprises in improving product quality while phasing out outdated production capacity [2]. - Following the meeting, sectors such as steel, coal, and building materials saw significant gains, indicating a reallocation of funds from previously hot sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors [3]. Focus on Specific Industries - The article highlights the photovoltaic industry as a key area for potential supply-side reforms due to severe overcapacity and widespread losses across the entire industry chain [3]. - In the construction materials sector, the profitability ranking from weakest to strongest is as follows: carbon fiber (significant losses), photovoltaic glass (losses), float glass (large industry losses, with leading companies barely profitable), cement (some companies in loss), and fiberglass (most companies profitable) [4]. Industry-Specific Insights - Photovoltaic glass prices have reached historical lows, with current prices for 2.0mm single-coated glass ranging from 10.5 to 12 RMB per square meter, and the average net profit in the industry is reported at -362 RMB per ton [4]. - The float glass industry is experiencing a majority of production lines operating at a loss, with specific production costs reported for different fuel types, indicating a challenging profitability environment [5]. - The carbon fiber industry has been in a negative profit situation for nearly two years, with an average gross profit of -8,543 RMB per ton as of late June [6]. Conclusion - The article suggests that the government's clear policy direction may lead to a series of supply-side reforms, potentially reversing supply-demand dynamics and improving product prices and corporate profitability in the affected sectors [3].
迈向高质量发展 多个行业掀起“反内卷”热潮
开源证券研报表示,今年下半年光伏行业需求或将转弱,当前产业链多环节产品价格已跌破现金成本 线。在此背景下,头部光伏玻璃企业计划自7月份开始集体减产,头部硅料企业正主动推进多晶硅产能 整合,推动行业供需结构改善。 不仅是光伏玻璃,钢铁、水泥等行业也在积极"反内卷"。 近期,部分钢厂已收到减排限产通知。此前,中国钢铁工业协会秘书长姜维表示,防止恶性竞争应成为 全体钢铁企业共同遵守的行业准则。 7月1日,中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》。从 百年建筑网水泥综合价格指数看,2023年水泥平均值为419元/吨,2024年为386元/吨,2025年上半年为 381元/吨,"可以看出,水泥价格逐年下跌,今年上半年水泥价格呈现持续下跌趋势,同时,水泥行业 的利润也逐渐下降。"上海钢联百年建筑网水泥首席分析师江元林认为,行业"反内卷"旨在促进水泥价 格回归合理区间。 本报记者 许林艳 近日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点,依法依 规治理企业低价无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出。 "减产、陆续出清尾部产能是行业'反 ...
水泥、光伏玻璃等行业反内卷加速
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-03 14:15
Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The cement industry is actively promoting anti-involution measures to stabilize growth and ensure high-quality development, with the China Cement Association urging member companies to align their actual production capacities with registered capacities [2] - In the first half of 2025, the average market price of P.O 42.5 bulk ordinary cement in China was 332 RMB/ton, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 14 RMB/ton [3] - Major domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers have collectively decided to reduce production by 30% to address market supply-demand imbalances, which is expected to help recover prices and improve profitability [4] - Other building materials, such as waterproofing products, have seen price increases ranging from 1% to 13% as companies adjust to market conditions [5] Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to ensure that actual production capacities match registered capacities, aiming for compliance and stability in production [2] - Cement prices have shown a slight recovery, with significant price increases announced by companies in various regions [3] Photovoltaic Glass - Leading manufacturers in the photovoltaic glass sector are implementing a significant production cut of 30% to rectify supply-demand discrepancies, which is anticipated to support price recovery [4] Other Building Materials - Companies in the waterproofing sector are raising prices on various products, indicating a trend of price adjustments across the industry [5]
7月3日晚间新闻精选
news flash· 2025-07-03 13:52
Group 1 - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, along with policies for medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology [1] - The Trump administration has lifted some export licensing requirements for chip design software to China, allowing major chip software companies like Synopsys to resume supply to China [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch reported that silicon wafer prices are currently below the cash costs of most producing silicon wafer companies, leading to strong price support intentions from companies; production cuts among silicon wafer manufacturers have noticeably increased under low-price conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing the need for legal and regulatory compliance to address low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry stating that China advocates for resolving trade differences through equal dialogue and negotiation, and that such negotiations should not target or harm the interests of third parties [1] Group 2 - The company Weiming Pharmaceutical has experienced a situation that may trigger other risk warnings after two consecutive trading halts [2] - Wealth Trend's actual controller and chairman plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [2] - Yamaton, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, did not disclose its own production arrangements or performance forecasts in an interview regarding the photovoltaic glass industry's temporary production cuts [2] - Huayin Power, after two consecutive trading halts, expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the half-year period (unaudited) [2] - Jieli Rigging, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, confirmed that it does not violate information disclosure regulations [2] - Chengbang Co., which has seen six consecutive trading halts, has a high pledge ratio for its controlling shareholder and concerted parties [2] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of no more than 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and has extended part of its existing loans [2] - Dazhongnan, which has seen eight consecutive trading halts, produces CPP aluminum-plastic film suitable for solid-state lithium battery packaging but has not yet started production of this product [2]
2连板亚玛顿:就“光伏玻璃行业部分企业阶段性下调产能”的采访中 未涉及公司自身的生产安排或业绩预测
news flash· 2025-07-03 10:12
Core Viewpoint - The company, Yamaton (002623.SZ), announced that its stock price has experienced an abnormal fluctuation, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last two trading days, following media inquiries regarding the solar glass industry's capacity adjustments [1] Group 1: Company Information - Yamaton clarified that in a recent media interview about the "temporary capacity reduction by some companies in the solar glass industry," it provided an objective explanation of industry dynamics and its overseas investment strategy [1] - The company did not discuss its own production arrangements or performance forecasts during the interview [1] - There were no undisclosed significant matters that the company failed to disclose [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The interview focused on the broader solar glass industry and the capacity adjustments being made by certain companies, indicating a potential shift in industry dynamics [1]