社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5][7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is under pressure due to multiple factors, but medium to long-term project developments are expected to boost the scenic area capacity and enhance business synergy [5][10] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.931 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.09% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25.51% to RMB 315 million [5][10] - The report anticipates a recovery in tourist growth and potential increases in capacity from both mountain and valley projects [10] Financial Summary - The company is projected to implement new regulations for paid use of scenic resources from 2025 to 2026, with adjusted EPS estimates of RMB 0.47, 0.54, and 0.63 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25.4, 22.0, and 19.0 [7][9] - The main revenue sources and their growth rates are as follows: - Main revenue: RMB 1,931 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 0.1% - EBITDA: RMB 788 million in 2024, with a decrease of 7.9% - Net profit: RMB 315 million in 2024, with a decrease of 25.5% [9][10] - The report highlights that the company’s revenue from ticket sales decreased due to various discount policies, while the cable car business showed stable growth [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 235 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.13%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 69 million yuan, up 31.83% year-on-year [1] - The increase in visitor numbers and revenue is attributed to improved weather conditions and an earlier Spring Festival, leading to a longer peak season [1] - The company maintains strong cost control, with a stable gross margin of 54.6% and a net profit margin of 29.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] - The company is actively pursuing project developments and marketing strategies to capitalize on the growing tourism sector in Anhui Province [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 845 million yuan and net profit of 223 million yuan in 2025, with projected growth rates of 10.5% and 20.1% respectively [5][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 235 million yuan, a 30.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 69 million yuan, up 31.83% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 54.6%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.3% [2] Project Development and Marketing - The company is advancing several projects, including the construction of a cable car at Lion Peak and upgrades to existing facilities, while also seeking new investment opportunities [3] - Marketing efforts include enhancing media presence and collaborating with major online travel agencies to boost brand visibility and attract visitors [3] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 850 million yuan in 2025, 930 million yuan in 2026, and 1.04 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 223 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 304 million yuan respectively [5][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][30]. Core Insights - The tourism market is showing significant recovery with three main trends: long-distance travel revival, cross-border travel increase, and county-level market expansion. The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and inbound travel orders have increased by 173% year-on-year, reflecting a structural upgrade in consumption [2][6][15]. - The government's recent policies, including the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," aim to boost consumption in sectors like culture and tourism, with measures such as a 30% discount on tickets and subsidies for rural tourism. These initiatives are expected to release regional and structural demand [2][18]. - The report highlights a strong pre-holiday surge in travel interest, with hotel search activity up 100% and flight searches up 80% in the past week. The trend of "low-cost, long-distance" travel is becoming established, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][6][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social service sector index saw a weekly change of 0.14%, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan industry classification. The hotel and catering sub-sector performed well with a 3.65% increase [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the tourism industry, driven by policy incentives and an upgrade in consumer spending patterns. The market is characterized by long-distance travel recovery, county market expansion, and quality improvement [6][15][21]. - The county-level market is showing remarkable performance, with a 25% increase in tourism heat compared to high-tier cities, indicating a clear trend of consumption upgrading in lower-tier markets [21]. Industry News Dynamics - The report notes the increasing interest in travel among older consumers, with a significant rise in bookings from those aged 60 and above. This demographic is becoming a vital part of the travel market, contributing to the overall growth in tourism [22][23].

Macro Strategy - The core impact of the recent reciprocal tariffs is on the existing global tariff and trade system rather than solely on China's exports, with the overall tariff rate on Chinese imports reaching 64.66% [18][19] - The new tariffs may lead to a GDP growth drag of approximately 1.5% for China, with a potential 31.5% decline in exports to the US [19] Fixed Income Analysis - The analysis indicates that the adjusted yield of bank assets can signal interest rate turning points, specifically when the adjusted yield of 3M interbank certificates rises to the level of corporate loan yields, indicating a potential downward turning point for interest rates [20][21] - The report highlights the importance of comparing yields between different asset classes to predict market movements [20] Industry Insights - In the engineering machinery sector, the direct export cost burden due to tariffs has increased to 79%, but the overall exposure to the US market is manageable for major players like SANY and XCMG, with their US exposure being relatively low [24] - Companies with manufacturing facilities in North America or Mexico are better positioned to mitigate tariff risks, with SANY and Hengli Hydraulic being notable examples [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][15]. Core Views - The company's actual performance for 2024 aligns with previous reports, with a revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, down 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [10][15]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 50% [10][15]. - The company is experiencing pressure in its Hainan operations but has increased its market share through product adjustments [2][11]. - The company benefits from the recovery of international passenger traffic, with significant revenue growth in airport stores [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 56.474 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.38%, and the net profit was 4.267 billion yuan, a decline of 36.44% [9][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.453 billion yuan, down 19.46%, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [10][15]. - The gross profit margin for the main business was 31.5%, with a slight increase of 0.15 percentage points [3][12]. Market Dynamics - The company's sales in Hainan decreased by 27% to 28.9 billion yuan, with specific stores in Sanya and Haikou experiencing declines of 28% [2][11]. - The company's tax-free sales revenue decreased by 16%, while the taxable sales revenue fell by 23% [2][11]. - The company has gained nearly 2 percentage points in market share despite the challenging environment [2][11]. Future Outlook - The company is advised to monitor the recovery pace of overall consumption, especially in Hainan, as sales figures show signs of marginal improvement [4][14]. - The company has secured the operating rights for six new city duty-free stores, which are expected to contribute to future growth [4][14]. - The company maintains a strong position in the market with its multi-channel strategy, including Hainan, airports, online, and city stores [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Airport is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][14]. Core Viewpoints - The major shareholder's increase in holdings reflects confidence in the company's medium-term prospects, as the controlling shareholder, Hainan Airport Group, increased its stake from 24.51% to 24.87% through a block trade [4][5][8]. - The company's performance is expected to be under pressure in the short term due to the pace of real estate destocking and a decline in contributions from Hainan's duty-free sales. The forecast for 2024 indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 320-480 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 49.62%-66.41% [5][9]. - The company is focusing on its core business development, with the expansion of Sanya Airport expected to enhance passenger capacity by 30% to 30 million by the end of 2025. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port [6][10]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Activity - Hainan Airport Group acquired a total of 41,792,448 shares at a price of RMB 3.69 per share, totaling approximately RMB 154.21 million, which helps eliminate historical cross-shareholding issues and demonstrates confidence in future growth [4][8]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from RMB 320 million to RMB 480 million, and a non-recurring net loss of RMB 200 million to RMB 400 million, primarily due to asset disposals and debt restructuring [5][9]. Business Strategy - Hainan Airport is shifting its focus back to its core operations, with airport management revenue expected to exceed 40% in 2024. The company is also modifying its articles of association to improve its dividend distribution mechanism [6][10]. Investment Recommendations - Adjustments to revenue assumptions for real estate and duty-free operations have been made, with net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 revised to RMB 466 million, RMB 729 million, and RMB 895 million, respectively. The company is expected to benefit from its strategic positioning in the Hainan Free Trade Port [7][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][2]. Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q4 2024, achieving the highest profit margin in its history. Q4 revenue reached 12.744 billion yuan, up 23.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 19.4%. Non-GAAP net profit was 3.038 billion yuan, up 13.6%, also surpassing the expected 7.5% [8][2]. - The company plans to increase investment to accelerate international business growth, with a focus on capturing market share in overseas travel [2][11]. - The company’s GMV exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, with a revenue increase of 19.7% for the year, and a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 33.9%, reflecting strong operational efficiency despite structural challenges [8][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.744 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 3.038 billion yuan, leading to a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 23.8% [8][11]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported a GMV of over 1.2 trillion yuan, with total revenue of 53.294 billion yuan, marking a 19.7% increase [8][11]. - The company’s Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 31.2%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [8][11]. Business Segments - Q4 2024 saw significant growth in various business segments: accommodation booking revenue was 5.178 billion yuan (+32.7%), transportation ticketing revenue was 4.780 billion yuan (+16.4%), and vacation revenue was 870 million yuan (+23.6%) [10][11]. - The company’s outbound travel bookings exceeded 120% recovery compared to the previous year, indicating a strong rebound in international travel demand [10][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a resilient growth trajectory in domestic travel, with projected revenue growth rates of 16.7%, 15.8%, and 15.1% for 2025-2027 [2][11]. - The increase in international business investment is anticipated to enhance profitability in the medium term, despite short-term pressures on profit margins due to increased marketing expenditures [2][11].