Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Context**: The A-share market is showing resilience amid global volatility, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and lower dependence on oil imports relative to GDP [1][13] Core Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) remained stable at 51% as of March 12, 2026, with a slight decrease in the 1-month moving average (MMA) to 57% [2][7] - **Trading Activity**: Average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and equity futures decreased by 8%, 10%, and 14% respectively, indicating a decline in trading activity [2][3] - **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading experienced a net outflow of US$0.9 billion during March 5-11, but year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows were positive at US$19.3 billion and US$1.9 billion respectively [3] Economic Indicators - **Export Growth**: Exports rose by 21.6% year-on-year in January-February, driven by temporary factors such as the late Lunar New Year and front-loading ahead of VAT rebate cuts [4] - **Future Outlook**: Trade growth is expected to moderate sharply in March, with potential negative impacts on exports due to fading Lunar New Year distortions and risks from energy price shocks and a weaker global trade cycle [5] Investment Recommendations - **Sector Preference**: The report emphasizes a preference for A-shares over offshore listings and recommends focusing on sectors related to real assets and technology/innovation [14][15] - **Energy Security**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, highlight the importance of energy security, which could benefit both traditional and alternative energy sectors [13][14] Additional Insights - **Margin Transactions**: Margin transactions outstanding remained stable at RMB 2,625 billion, indicating consistent investor engagement despite the overall decline in trading volumes [2] - **Earnings Estimates**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remained negative, suggesting cautious sentiment among analysts [2] Methodology Notes - **MSASI Construction**: The MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing various dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term trends [16][28] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the A-share market, economic indicators, and investment strategies.

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the lithium carbonate market on March 13, 2026, with the view that inventory is being depleted and supply - demand is tight [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing inventory depletion and a tight supply - demand situation [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Futures Market - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 156,980, with changes of 1,940 compared to T - 1, 1,120 compared to T - 5, - 16,680 compared to T - 10, 24,540 compared to T - 22, and 62,140 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 219,828, and the open interest is 325,382 [3] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 156,700, with changes of 1,820 compared to T - 1, 1,000 compared to T - 5, - 17,420 compared to T - 10, 24,060 compared to T - 22, and 62,220 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 24,021, and the open interest is 95,406 [3] Basis and Related Spreads - The basis between spot and 2605 contract is 1,020, and between spot and 2607 contract is 1,300. The spread between 2605 and 2607 contracts is 280. The spread between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500, and the spread between spot and CIF is 20,944 [3] Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is priced at 2,195, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) at 5,050. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,000, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 154,500, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized) is 157,000, etc. [3] Downstream Products - Phosphoric acid iron lithium (power type) is 55,475, phosphoric acid iron lithium (mid - high - end energy storage type) is 53,925, phosphoric acid iron lithium (low - end energy storage type) is 50,350. Various ternary materials and other products also have corresponding prices [3] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - As of 0:00 on March 6, the "Longdong Power Transmission to Hunan" project has cumulatively transmitted over 230 billion kWh of electricity, with new energy accounting for over 40%. It is an important part of the "West - to - East Power Transmission" strategy [4][5] - LG Energy Solution plans to commercialize a higher - performance lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery in 2027, targeting the growing energy storage market [5] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-03-13 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-03-13 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 伊朗新领袖首份声明：霍尔木兹海峡将继续关闭 观点分享： 综合央视新闻、新华社报道，当地时间 3 月 12 日，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊发 表就任最高领袖以来的首份声明，就国家发展方向、地区局势以及应对外部挑战等问题作出 系统阐述。声明明确表示，伊朗将继续采取包括封锁霍尔木兹海峡在内的战略手段，并在必 要时开辟新的战线。总体而言，该声明态度强硬，立足长期和全面对抗，威胁对霍尔木兹封 锁常态化，对油价而言，前期战争带来的情绪冲击溢价，将被海峡封锁导致的供给端实质性 受损所引致的价格再平衡代替。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 期指 | ★★★★ | 期指：延续筑底格局。两会正式闭幕，2026 年和未来五年规划内容悉数落地。今年工作重心 在于提质增效、高质量发展，针对物价、内需、投资等薄弱领域，以及科技创新、改革等将 持续发力。虽然相较去年 GDP、赤字增量持稳，但政策透露出较浓的托底和求稳信号，在外 部环境 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemicals, evaluates their market trends and price movements, and gives corresponding investment advice based on fundamental data and news [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][7]. - **Copper**: Inventory increase limits price increase, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the trend intensity is -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The increase of domestic inventory puts pressure on the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: It fluctuates at a high level, the trend intensity is 1; Alumina: The cost is rising, the trend intensity is 0; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][25]. - **Platinum**: Geopolitical disputes have arisen again, and precious metals are under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0; Palladium: It stays at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28]. - **Nickel**: Tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its flexibility, and the trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][32]. Energy - **Crude oil**: Not in the content, but relevant information affects other commodities. - **Coking coal**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][62]. - **Coke**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][61]. - **Steam coal**: Supply and demand are becoming more abundant, and coal prices are回调, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][67]. Chemicals - **Para-xylene**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **PTA**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][74]. - **Rubber**: It fluctuates widely, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][82]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It fluctuates widely within the day, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][86]. - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the shrinkage of cracking supply continues, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **PP**: The supply of various raw materials is restricted, and upstream production starts to shrink, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **Caustic soda**: Supply is passively reduced, and the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][92]. - **Paper pulp**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely at a high level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][103]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates widely, and the fundamentals support the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][107]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][110]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market changes little, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][112]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end lead to an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost and reduced supply, the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel oil**: It maintains a rebound and is still in a high - volatility environment in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil: It hit the daily limit during the day session, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market decreased marginally, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The market sentiment is strong, but beware of a sharp fall after a rise, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market rebounds and fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Corn**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][166]. - **Sugar**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for new drivers, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][174]. - **Eggs**: It fluctuates within a range, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining, with a trend intensity of -2 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][185]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Geo - political sentiment dominates, and the fluctuations are large, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][130]. Fibers - **Staple fiber**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. - **Bottle chips**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. Paper - **Offset printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][148]. Oils - **Palm oil**: Driven by positive news, the oil market runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157]. - **Soybean oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it fluctuates at a high level in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157].

Core Viewpoint - Chasing Technology has officially launched its self-developed "Starry Crystal Core" all-solid-state power battery, which boasts a single cell capacity of 60Ah and an energy density exceeding 450Wh/kg, surpassing current mainstream liquid lithium-ion batteries and approaching industry expectations for the first phase of solid-state battery performance [1]. Group 1: Product Development - The "Starry Crystal Core" all-solid-state power battery is set for small-scale delivery in 2026 and aims for mass production in 2027, which is more aggressive compared to most competitors targeting production around 2030 [1]. - The solid-state battery business is managed by Chasing's subsidiary, Crystal Energy, which was established at the end of 2025 and has a core team with backgrounds from companies like AVIC Lithium Battery and Geely [1]. Group 2: Technical Pathways - Crystal Energy focuses on several key areas in solid-state battery research, including the design of all-solid-state cells to achieve energy densities above 450Wh/kg through material and structural optimization [1]. - The battery management system (BMS) incorporates artificial intelligence algorithms to enhance monitoring precision and consistency control [4]. - The battery pack integration technology utilizes the Cell to Pack (CTP) 4.0 solution to improve space utilization and reduce system costs [4]. Group 3: Partnerships and Collaborations - Crystal Energy has established cooperation intentions with three automotive manufacturers and two energy companies, planning to initiate vehicle testing in Q4 2026 and achieve scalable production in 2027 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 423.70 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 72.20 billion, up 42% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights strong growth in both power battery and energy storage battery sales, with power battery revenue increasing by 25% to RMB 316.51 billion and energy storage battery revenue rising by 9% to RMB 62.44 billion in 2025 [6]. - The company’s global market share for power batteries increased by 1.2 percentage points to 39.2% in 2025, maintaining its leading position in the energy storage battery market [6]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for 2026-2028, with estimates of RMB 94.07 billion, RMB 114.15 billion, and RMB 139.41 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 30.3%, 21.3%, and 22.1% [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024A to 2028E are as follows: RMB 362.01 billion, RMB 423.70 billion, RMB 530.48 billion, RMB 638.45 billion, and RMB 772.99 billion, with growth rates of -9.7%, 17.0%, 25.2%, 20.4%, and 21.1% respectively [2]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from RMB 89.48 billion in 2024A to RMB 208.97 billion in 2028E [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 11.52 in 2024A to RMB 30.55 in 2028E [2]. - The report indicates a stable unit profit of over RMB 0.1 per Wh, supported by a lithium carbonate price linkage mechanism and an increase in the proportion of energy storage systems [6]. Market Position and Capacity Expansion - The company’s lithium battery production capacity reached 772 GWh in 2025, with an additional 321 GWh under construction, which is expected to support further increases in shipment volume and market share [6]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of energy storage demand and the anticipated stabilization of power demand in 2026, which could lead to a new round of growth in the lithium battery sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) aims to expand beyond being just a "battery factory," focusing on high growth and strong profitability while increasing capital expenditures significantly to enhance its global presence and service offerings [4][25][36]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, CATL reported revenue of 140.6 billion yuan, a 37% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, up 57% [6][9]. - For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of 423.7 billion yuan, a 17% increase, and a net profit of 72.2 billion yuan, growing 42% [6][9]. - The battery shipment volume reached 661 GWh in 2025, a 39% increase, with Q4 shipments at 226 GWh, reflecting a 55% year-on-year growth [10][13]. Business Segments - The power battery segment remains the core revenue driver, contributing 3.165 trillion yuan in revenue, a 25.08% increase, despite a 12% decline in average price [13][15]. - The energy storage business showed significant growth, with a 30% increase in shipments to 121 GWh, contributing 624.4 billion yuan, accounting for 14.7% of total revenue [13][15]. - International markets have become a key growth area, with overseas revenue reaching 129.64 billion yuan, making up 30.6% of total revenue [15]. Profitability - CATL's gross margin improved to 26.3% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 17% [19][21]. - The company maintained profitability through product structure optimization, vertical integration of the supply chain, and economies of scale [21][22][23]. Capital Expenditure - CATL's capital expenditure reached 42.1 billion yuan in 2025, a 36% increase, with plans to raise this by 50% in 2026 to address capacity concerns [26][28]. - Significant investments are directed towards European factories to ensure local production aligns with the EU's battery regulations [29]. Strategic Initiatives - CATL is expanding its battery swapping infrastructure, aiming to increase the number of battery swap stations to 3,000 by 2026, which will enhance market penetration in the mid-range vehicle segment [31][32]. - The company is diversifying its business model from battery manufacturing to energy services, transforming battery ownership into a service model that generates stable long-term revenue [32]. Market Positioning - CATL has established a strong global market presence, with a 39.2% share in the global power battery market, and over 30% in overseas markets [15][17]. - The company is leveraging its technological advantages to penetrate high-barrier sectors, including eVTOL and electric shipping, contributing to its revenue growth [34].

摘要 回收体系的规范化，将助力电池后市场服务的发展。 作为首批规模电动化的应用场景，电动公交近年来已迎来电池退役及更换潮。 近日，福州市公交集团与宁德时代在福建宁德签订战略合作框架协议。双方将围绕公交车 电池后市 场服务、城市换电网络搭建、电池回收利用及车网互动（ V2G ）等领域展开合作，共同探索电动 化之后的下半场。 首先，公交作为电动商用车存量市场，具有一定的替换市场空间。 从政策来看， 早在 2024 年，国务院就印发了《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案》 ，要求持续推进城市公交车电动化替代，支持老旧新能源公交车和动力电池更新换代。 不仅如此，去年年底，国家发展改革委财政部发布《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策的通知》 ， 更新电池可享受相关补贴。 补贴细则规定，对更换动力电池的，每辆车（ 2017 年以前等级的车龄 8 年及以上的公交车）平均 补贴 4.2 万元 。 从电池企业的布局来看，目前已有宁德时代、亿纬锂能、国轩高科、瑞浦兰钧、比亚迪、中创新 航、楚能新能源多家电池企业已针对轻卡轻客市场推出产品。 与市级公交集团合作也正成为电池企业切入公交电池更新潮的方式 ...

Macro and Strategy - In the first two months of 2026, China's foreign trade showed a strong start, with exports increasing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in global manufacturing demand and an improvement in the competitiveness of high-end manufacturing and electromechanical products [7][8] - The government emphasizes "expanding high-level opening up," focusing on institutional reforms to facilitate foreign investment and optimize trade processes, which will provide a more flexible environment for companies to participate in global supply chains [7][8] - The report suggests three strategies to boost domestic demand: increasing the birth rate to stimulate consumption in maternal and child care, promoting the urbanization of migrant workers to drive new demand, and enhancing the stock market's wealth effect to increase consumer confidence [8][9][10][11] Industry and Company ZhiZiCheng Technology (09911.HK) - ZhiZiCheng is a leading global social entertainment player with over 20 localized operation centers, serving over 1 billion users across more than 150 countries [13][14] - The core social business, which includes various social platforms, saw a revenue growth of 37% in the first half of 2025, contributing 89% to total revenue [14] - The innovative business segment, including self-developed mobile games and social e-commerce, achieved a revenue growth of 72%, accounting for 11% of total revenue [15][16] JD Health (06618.HK) - JD Health reported a revenue of 381.5 billion yuan in the second half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, driven by an increase in active users and a diverse product range [17][18] - The company’s non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 7.2% to 7.8%, benefiting from operational efficiency despite rising fulfillment costs [18][19] - The online penetration rate in the pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow significantly, with the current penetration rate in the outpatient market at about 15%, compared to nearly 30% in the overall retail market [19] SEA (SE.N) - SEA's revenue reached 6.85 billion USD in Q4 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, driven by strong growth in e-commerce, digital finance, and gaming sectors [20][21] - The e-commerce segment generated 4.98 billion USD, with a GMV of 36.7 billion USD, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth [20] - The digital finance segment saw a 54% increase in revenue, with a total loan portfolio of 9.3 billion USD, indicating robust growth and effective risk management [21] JD Group (SW09618.HK) - JD Group achieved a revenue of 352.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.53%, despite challenges in the electronics category [23][24] - The company plans to continue its stock buyback program, with a total of 3 billion USD allocated for repurchases, representing 6.3% of the total outstanding shares [24][25] - The projected revenue for 2026-2028 is expected to reach 1.5793 trillion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 29.9 billion and 41.7 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [25] MinBao Optoelectronics (301362.SZ) - MinBao Optoelectronics plans to acquire a 51% stake in Xiamen Zhizhi Precision, focusing on high-end PCB drilling technology, which is expected to benefit from the AI wave [26][30] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance MinBao's capabilities in the high-end PCB market, with projected revenues of 1.4 billion yuan for Xiamen Zhizhi in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% growth [30] - The global PCB drilling market is expected to reach 4.5 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increased demand for high-end PCBs [26][30] Anfu Technology (603031.SH) - Anfu Technology reported a revenue of 4.77 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with net profit rising by 9.6% [31][32] - The company plans to increase its stake in Nanfu Battery, which is expected to enhance profitability due to its strong cash flow and operational stability [34] - The projected net profits for 2026-2028 are estimated at 421 million, 583 million, and 647 million yuan, respectively, indicating significant growth potential [34] Huali Group (300979.SZ) - Huali Group's revenue grew by 4.1% to 24.98 billion yuan in 2025, while net profit decreased by 16.5% to 3.21 billion yuan [35] - The company proposed a dividend payout ratio of approximately 76.4%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [35]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has officially launched a "Section 301" investigation targeting 16 major economies, focusing on the issue of "structural overcapacity" in the manufacturing sector, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy from a country-specific approach to a global industrial competition perspective [1][6]. Investigation Scope - The investigation will cover major manufacturing centers globally, examining whether the practices of the involved economies are "unreasonable or discriminatory" and impose burdens on U.S. businesses [2]. - The economies included in the investigation are: - Asia: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Singapore, and Taiwan [3]. - Europe: European Union, Switzerland, Norway [4]. - North America: Mexico [5]. Core Allegations - The USTR claims that foreign economies exhibit "structural overcapacity and production surplus" in manufacturing, which poses significant challenges to U.S. re-industrialization efforts. This overcapacity is said to crowd out U.S. domestic production and hinder potential investments in U.S. manufacturing [6]. Legal Procedures - Following the initiation of the investigation, the USTR is required to engage in consultations with the governments of the investigated economies. The USTR has formally requested dialogue with the 16 economies [8]. - A public comment period will begin on March 17, 2026, with a deadline for submissions by April 15, 2026. Public hearings are scheduled to start on May 5, 2026 [9][10][11]. Background and Impact - The "Section 301" is a unilateral retaliatory tool in U.S. trade law, allowing the USTR to impose tariffs or import restrictions if foreign trade practices are deemed "unfair." The initiation of this investigation comes after the U.S. Supreme Court recently struck down certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting the government to seek alternative legal tools to maintain trade pressure [12]. - Analysts suggest that focusing on "overcapacity" indicates a shift in U.S. trade disputes from traditional anti-dumping and countervailing duties to a broader industrial policy and market competition perspective, potentially leading to high tariffs on specific industrial goods from the investigated economies, thereby escalating global trade tensions [12].