1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg supply pressure has been alleviated, and the egg price may bottom out. In the second half of the year, especially during the Mid - Autumn Festival in August and September, the egg price is expected to strengthen. However, the specific increase in egg price depends on whether the number of culled chickens can remain high. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the increase will be relatively large; otherwise, it will be limited. [5][24][40] - For the futures market, the downward space of the futures price is relatively limited as the profit per catty of eggs is in a loss or flat state. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. If the number of culled chickens remains high, the upward space is relatively large; if not, the contracts may fluctuate slightly stronger. [5][42] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In 2025, the spot price of eggs was weak. Due to the high pre - stocking volume, the supply was loose in the first half of the year. Combined with the average feed cost, the egg price was low. It started at 3.1 yuan/jin and dropped to around 2.65 yuan/jin. The futures contracts also showed a weak trend, and the August contract dropped to around 3455. [4][10] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The downward space of the futures price is limited because of the loss or flat profit per catty of eggs. The upward space of the August and September contracts in the second half of the year depends on the future number of culled chickens. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For the unilateral strategy, consider building long positions in the far - month August and September contracts in mid - to late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see. [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the previous market review, the spot price of eggs was weak in 2025. The supply was loose due to high pre - stocking, and the futures contracts also performed weakly. [10] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Spot**: The spot price of eggs trended weakly in the first half of the year. The average price in the main production areas dropped from around 3.2 yuan/jin to around 2.62 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas from 3.38 yuan/jin to 2.84 yuan/jin. The increase in the number of culled chickens recently has alleviated the supply pressure. [11] - **Supply**: In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a 7.2% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 will be approximately 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively. The proportion of large, medium, and small eggs in June was 40.67% (medium - low level in the same period over the years), 42.28% (medium level), and 17.05% (medium - high level) respectively. The egg - laying rate in June was about 90.98%, at a low level in the same period over the years, and is expected to decline with the hot weather. In May, the monthly egg - laying chick hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% month - on - month decrease and a 1% year - on - year increase. The current weekly market price of egg - laying chicks is 4.06 yuan/feather, a 0.08 - yuan decrease from the previous month. The number of culled chickens increased in June but was still at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. As of June 19, the average culling age was 509 days, at a medium - high level over the years. [11][13][14] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand was okay but declined recently due to the seasonal off - season. As of June 19, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 7527 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. From January to May 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 20317.1 billion yuan, a 5% year - on - year increase, and the catering revenue in May was 457.8 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [22][24] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, at a low level in the same period over the years, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, at a medium - high level in the same period over the years. [24] - **Cost and Profit**: The feed cost changed little in the first half of the year and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In June, the corn price was 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2986 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2591 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.85 yuan/jin for eggs. As of June 19, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, at a low level in the same period over the years. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, also at a low level in the same period over the years. [31][33] - **Substitutes**: The vegetable price changed little in the first half of the year, and the pork price remained in a low - level shock. As of June 22, the Shouguang vegetable index was 103.73, and as of June 20, the pork price was around 15.72 yuan/kg. The low vegetable and pork prices had a relatively weak substitution demand for eggs. [34] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The current laying - hen inventory is at a high level over the years, but the supply pressure has been alleviated recently. If the market's enthusiasm for culling chickens weakens, the supply side will still face pressure; if the number of culled chickens remains large, the supply pressure will improve. [40] - **Demand**: The short - term demand is average due to the off - season, but in the long - term, the egg price may be boosted by the seasonal peak in the second half of the year. [40] - **Feed Cost**: The comprehensive feed cost per catty of eggs in the first half of 2025 was about 2.8 yuan/jin. The prices of corn and soybean meal changed little, and the feed cost is expected to remain at the current level, providing certain support for the egg spot price. [40] - **Overall Outlook**: In the second half of the year, the egg price is expected to strengthen, especially in August and September. The specific increase depends on the future number of culled chickens. For the futures market, the downward space is limited, and the upward space of the August and September contracts depends on the number of culled chickens. [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - Recent chicken egg prices in China have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with average prices rising to 7.28 yuan/kg as of June 26, 2023, reflecting a 1.82% increase from the previous week [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The increase in egg prices is attributed to low inventory levels and stimulated consumer demand due to lower prices, despite concerns about the sustainability of this rebound due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [1][3]. - As of June 20, average inventory levels in production and circulation were reported at 0.95 days and 1.04 days, respectively, indicating a decline of approximately 10.38% and 10.34% compared to previous periods [3]. - Analysts predict that the supply of laying hens will continue to increase, with a theoretical growth of 0.75% in laying hen inventory expected in July [4][5]. Seasonal Influences - The traditional low season for chicken eggs typically occurs in June, with high temperatures and humidity affecting storage and quality, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for the market [3][4]. - The end of the plum rain season in mid-July is anticipated to improve storage conditions, potentially leading to a recovery in prices as demand for replenishment increases [6][7]. Price Trends and Forecasts - Historical data suggests that chicken egg prices tend to rise significantly from the low point during the plum rain season to the peak during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with average increases ranging from 25% to 88% [7]. - Current market conditions indicate that while prices may stabilize at low levels in the short term, a significant rebound is expected post-plum rain season, with potential price peaks estimated between 3.8 yuan and 4.1 yuan per jin [7].

期。盘面来看，期价跌至低估值区域后，近来有止跌回暖倾向，可轻仓试多。 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-06-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3561 | 10 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -20393 | 2863 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Research Report - Egg Daily Report [2] - Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the futures market, the near - month 07 contract may maintain a weak performance due to the egg consumption entering the off - season after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited. For the far - month contracts, if the chicken culling volume increases in the future, the 8 and 9 - month contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not significantly improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas is 2.87 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, and the egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6]. - In - production laying hens: In May, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken culling: The egg - laying hen culling volume in the main production areas in the week of June 20 was 19.68 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The average culling age on June 19 was 509 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week. The national culling chicken price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.54 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day [7][9]. - Egg sales: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,527 tons, a decrease of 8% from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of June 19, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 2. Trading Logic - Near - month 07 contract: Due to the off - season demand after the rainy season, the price may be weak, but the downward space is limited. - Far - month contracts: If the chicken culling volume increases, the 8 and 9 - month contracts may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including egg spot prices in the main production and sales areas, egg - laying hen chick prices, culling chicken prices, egg feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, futures spreads, and profit trends [13][16][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions in eggs [7]. - Currently, eggs are in a seasonal demand off - season. With a high egg - laying hen inventory and new - laying hens from previous replenishments, egg supply is sufficient. The hot and humid weather increases storage costs, making downstream dealers cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. The futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover after reaching a low - valuation area [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Light - position trial for long positions [7]. - Egg market: This week, egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3618 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 62 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, due to the seasonal off - season and high inventory, egg prices are under pressure, but the acceleration of old - hen culling may change the supply situation [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The trading volume was 233,645 lots, an increase of 5,400 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,810, and the net short position increased compared to last week [15]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [19]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2932 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 324 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 686 yuan per ton [25]. - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 73 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level compared to the same period [29]. - Related product spot prices: As of June 19, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.29 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.37 yuan per kilogram [35]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The national new - chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41]. - Culling of egg - laying hens: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled egg - laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%. The national culling age of hens was 506 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of June 19, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2415.69 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of June 13, 2025, the breeding profit of egg - laying hens was - 0.55 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan per kilogram [55]. - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens prices: As of June 13, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.1 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.12 yuan per kilogram [57]. - Egg monthly export volume: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.12% (an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [63].

正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格持续下降， 淘鸡日龄持续下降，大小码价差小幅上升，鸡苗价格持 | 偏空 | | | 续下降。 | | | | 近十年统计结果显示，有6次梅雨季现货价格低点出现在7月上旬，3次出现在6月下旬，所以6-7 | | | | 月出现低点的概率较大。通常7-8月现货出现上涨，主要因为梅雨季淘鸡加速、高温天气导致产 | | | | 蛋率下降、中秋节前备货需求增加的影响。但目前淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位，7月20日入 | | | | 伏之前产蛋率也不会快速下滑，节前备货还未到启动的时候，所以季节性反弹还为时尚早。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量基本持平，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅上升。 | 偏空 | | | 根据气象部门最新预测，今年南方梅雨季节时间长、降雨量大，鸡蛋质量面临较大挑战，或导致 | | | | 今年6月份需求低于往年同期。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润持续走低，明显低于综合成本，处于近4年同期最低水平。 蛋鸡行业经过连 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply is relatively abundant due to high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production. The demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the hot and humid weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. However, the supply - loose expectation has been reflected in the futures price, and if the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for old - hen culling and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show a tendency to stop falling and recover. The strategy suggestion is to lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a closing price of 3556 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 3 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week [10]. - **Market Outlook**: After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - peak. With high laying - hen inventory and new - laying hens coming into production, the supply is sufficient. The hot and humid weather increases storage costs, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. Egg prices are at a low level, and the breeding side is in a loss state. If the spot price remains low, it may affect the laying - hen inventory, which is beneficial to long - term prices. The spot price drags down the near - term futures price, while the long - term contracts show signs of recovery [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly test long positions in long - term contracts [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 08 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with a position of 228,245 lots, an increase of 40,890 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 7397, and the net short position increased slightly compared to last week [17]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [21]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 2608 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 187 yuan/500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 948 yuan/ton [27]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at 37 yuan/500 kilograms, at the lowest level in the same period [31]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.33 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.34 yuan/kg [37]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new - chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [42]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [48]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of June 12, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2406.27 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2880 yuan/ton [52]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.44 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.74 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices**: As of June 6, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 4.1 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.26 yuan/kg [61]. - **Egg Exports**: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [67]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. includes a graph of its price - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis is provided [69].

Overview - Eggs are a significant source of protein in daily diets, with increasing consumer awareness regarding quality and nutritional value, leading to a rising demand for high-quality eggs such as organic and antibiotic-free eggs [1][12] - The fast-paced lifestyle is driving the demand for processed egg products like liquid eggs and egg powder, contributing to the growth of the deep processing sector [1][12] - In 2024, China's egg demand is projected to reach 30.62 million tons, with production at 30.76 million tons, resulting in a market size of 387.9 billion yuan and an average product price of approximately 12.67 yuan per kilogram [1][12] Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the development of the agricultural sector, including the egg industry, creating a favorable policy environment [5][7] - Key policies include enhancing food safety regulations, improving agricultural product circulation, and promoting rural e-commerce [5][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the egg industry primarily includes egg-laying hen breeding, machinery, and packaging materials, with egg-laying hen breeding being the most critical segment [8] - In 2024, the stock of breeding hens is expected to reach approximately 634,000 sets, with a steady increase in the stock of laying hens, which is crucial for the industry's growth [8] Consumption Structure - Currently, fresh consumption dominates the egg market in China, accounting for over 80% of total consumption, while the deep processing sector is still in its infancy [10][12] - The demand for processed egg products is expected to grow significantly due to diverse consumer needs and the development of the baking industry [10][12] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese egg market is characterized by a large number of small-scale producers, leading to intense competition [16] - Major players in the industry include Beijing Deqingyuan Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., Fujian Guangyang Egg Industry Co., Ltd., and Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd., among others [16][18] Development Trends - Future trends indicate that household consumption will remain dominant, but there will be a gradual diversification in outdoor and industrial consumption [22] - The demand for convenient, nutritious, and diverse egg products is expected to rise, with a growing market for high-quality liquid eggs and egg powders [22] - As consumer awareness of egg quality and safety increases, branded eggs are likely to gain market share, prompting companies to enhance product traceability and quality assurance [22]

沙门氏菌是威胁食品安全的常见病原体，鸡蛋作为日常高频消费品，其微生物安全至关重要。不少消费 者不禁担忧：中国鸡蛋是否安全？ 日前美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)和美国食品药品监督管理局(FDA)调查显示，一起多州沙门氏菌疫 情已导致至少170万枚鸡蛋被召回，这些鸡蛋在2月3日至5月15日期间分销至美国九个州，涵盖沃尔玛和 Safeway等多家连锁超市。截至目前，已有79人感染沙门氏菌，21人入院治疗，且疫情可能不限于已确 认病例的州，实际感染人数或更多。 从养殖源头看，国内部分企业已建立严格的防控体系。以黄天鹅鸡蛋为例，从蛋鸡的祖代就开始切断沙 门氏菌的带入，确保种源干净。黄天鹅在饲料环节，自建饲料工厂并构建严格管控体系，选用优质原 料，避免饲料成为沙门氏菌的传播途径，从饮食端保障蛋鸡健康，减少鸡蛋受污染的可能。 养殖过程中的生物防控也不容忽视。黄天鹅完善的养殖场生物防控体系，从鸡舍环境、养殖人员卫生、 饮水安全、空气流通到鸡群健康监控等多个维度，全方位抵御沙门氏菌侵入。例如，对鸡舍定期消毒、 规范养殖人员操作流程、实时监测鸡群健康状况等，尽可能为蛋鸡创造无菌或少菌的生长环境。 在检测方面，黄天鹅采用全链路大 ...

Group 1: Economic Development and Agricultural Innovation - The average household savings in Hai'an is 200,000 yuan, ranking among the top three in the province, highlighting the region's economic strength [1] - Hai'an is recognized for its modern agricultural practices, focusing on "industrial thinking" to promote common prosperity through a dual-driven approach of "industry + employment" [1][2] - The local government aims to increase the value of agricultural products, with a specific goal of raising the price of eggs by 0.2 yuan per kilogram, which could generate an additional 1 billion yuan for farmers [2][3] Group 2: Agricultural Value Chain and Employment - Hai'an has developed a comprehensive agricultural value chain, producing over 240,000 tons of eggs annually, with a total output value exceeding 10 billion yuan from the egg industry alone [3] - The region's agricultural industry cluster generated nearly 50 billion yuan in total output last year, significantly contributing to local employment [3] - Hai'an has established 19 standardized employment service stations, helping 2,640 unemployed individuals find jobs, emphasizing the importance of employment in rural revitalization [6] Group 3: Technological Integration and Cultural Development - The introduction of digital agriculture has led to an average increase of 30 kg per mu in crop yield and a cost saving of 100 yuan per mu, enhancing farmers' income [5] - Hai'an is promoting cultural enrichment through a public cultural service network, with numerous performances and cultural events reaching rural areas [7] - The local government is committed to building a national rural revitalization demonstration county, focusing on increasing agricultural efficiency and farmers' income [7]