Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32% to close at 3472.32 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 10508.76 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.36% to 2156.32 points [1] - Overall, there were 4118 stocks that declined, 1169 that increased, and 129 that remained unchanged across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 14285 billion yuan, an increase of 1188.11 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as banking, media, comprehensive services, public utilities, steel, and coal led the gains, while industries like beauty care, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, light manufacturing, environmental protection, and machinery equipment experienced declines [1] Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included cross-border payments, central enterprise banks, digital currency, hydropower, selected banks, vitamins, financial technology, thermal power, and selected electric power stocks. Other notable sectors were "East Data West Calculation," innovative drugs, semiconductor equipment, biotechnology, and online gaming [1]

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

Market Performance - On July 3, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index rose by 0.21% to close at 1442.17 points, with a trading volume of 10.53 billion shares and a total transaction value of 239.19 billion yuan[3] - The average daily transaction value for the North Exchange decreased from 340.49 billion yuan last week to 239.19 billion yuan on this day[3] Industry Trends - The leading sectors in terms of growth included light industry manufacturing (+2.8%), electronics (+1.3%), environmental protection (+1.1%), and pharmaceuticals (+1.0%)[3] - The sectors with the largest declines were transportation (-3.1%), non-ferrous metals (-3.1%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-2.8%), and textiles and apparel (-1.8%)[3] Stock Performance - Among the 268 listed companies, 144 saw an increase in stock price, while 120 experienced a decline[3] - The top gainers included Jiahua Technology (+15.49%), Guangxin Technology (+13.12%), and Huayang Racing (+7.80%) while the largest losers were Kelaite (-12.36%), Kunbo Precision (-9.31%), and Xinweiling (-6.09%)[3][10] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was reported at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.61 times, which is higher than the P/E ratios of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (52.68 times) and the Growth Enterprise Market (35.93 times)[3] - The electronics sector had the highest average P/E ratio at 208.0 times, followed by computers (144.6 times) and home appliances (121.8 times)[3][11] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3][14]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for small-cap growth style in July, with a recommendation for sectors such as consumer services, real estate, and textiles to perform well in the short term [1][5][10] Core Insights - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed impact on different asset classes, with PPI underperforming and CPI exceeding expectations negatively affecting the stock market, while industrial value-added and PMI exceeding expectations positively influence the commodity market [1][3] - The report highlights a bullish signal for the stock market based on timing indicators, suggesting a potential upward trend, while the bond market shows signs of overheating risk [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation strategies, recommending industries that may outperform in the current fast rotation environment [1][5] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes that the latest PPI data was below expectations, while CPI has exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, leading to a negative impact on the stock market [3] - Industrial value-added has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, along with a favorable exchange rate and PMI, positively impacting the commodity market [3] Timing Indicators - Three indicators triggered bullish signals for the stock market, while three bearish signals were noted for the bond market, indicating potential upward movement for stocks and caution for bonds [3][4] Sector Rotation Strategy - Recommended sectors for July include comprehensive, light manufacturing, real estate, building materials, consumer services, and textiles, which are expected to perform well in the short term [1][5] Style Analysis - The report indicates that small-cap growth style is expected to outperform in July, with a notable shift towards growth style over value style [6][7] - The report highlights that the sentiment and market conditions favor growth style, with a total score of 1.32 indicating a strong preference for growth [7] Quantitative Strategy Performance - The report details that small-cap strategies have outperformed major small-cap indices, with specific strategies yielding returns of 11.4% and 9.6% [8][9] - The growth-oriented strategies have shown significant returns, with one strategy yielding 9.4% in June and over 22% in the first half of the year [9] Market Outlook for July - The report maintains a positive outlook for July, suggesting that both growth-oriented and small-cap strategies still present opportunities despite some valuation concerns [10]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 7 月观点：不再看多红利。 ◼ 2025 年 7 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601668.SH | 中国建筑 | 建筑装饰 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 轻工制造 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 000651.SZ | 格力电器 | 家用电器 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 000157.SZ | 中联重科 | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, with 33 stocks reaching historical closing highs [1] - Among the tradable A-shares, 4,056 stocks increased in price, accounting for 75.04%, while 1,127 stocks decreased, making up 20.85% [1] - A total of 94 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 7 stocks hit the limit down [1] Historical Highs - Excluding newly listed stocks from the past year, 33 stocks closed at historical highs, with 14 from the main board, 14 from the ChiNext board, and 3 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1] - The sectors with the most stocks reaching historical highs included electronics, power equipment, and national defense, with 8, 4, and 4 stocks respectively [1] Stock Price Performance - Stocks that reached historical highs saw an average price increase of 7.34%, with notable limit-up stocks including Hopson Holdings, Aohong Electronics, and Great Wall Military Industry [1] - The average closing price of the stocks that hit historical highs was 47.32 yuan, with 3 stocks priced over 100 yuan and 7 stocks priced between 50 and 100 yuan [1] - The highest closing price was recorded by Shenghong Technology at 134.38 yuan, which increased by 1.42% [1] Capital Flow - The total net inflow of main funds into stocks reaching historical highs was 1.078 billion yuan, with 20 stocks experiencing net inflows [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Sifang Precision, Haoshanghao, and Great Wall Military Industry, with net inflows of 381 million yuan, 348 million yuan, and 247 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced net outflows, with Dongshan Precision, Jinlongyu, and Yema Battery seeing the largest outflows of 170 million yuan, 166 million yuan, and 7.129 million yuan respectively [2] Market Capitalization - The average total market capitalization of stocks reaching historical highs was 34.915 billion yuan, with an average circulating market capitalization of 31.703 billion yuan [2] - The stocks with the highest total market capitalization included Pudong Development Bank, New Yisheng, and Shenghong Technology, with market caps of 407.408 billion yuan, 126.046 billion yuan, and 115.928 billion yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the lowest total market capitalization included Southeast Electronics and Yuanhang Precision, with market caps of 2.474 billion yuan and 3.061 billion yuan respectively [2] Innovation High Frequency - The ability to reach new highs is an indicator of stock strength, with Shenghong Technology achieving 10 new highs in the past month, followed by Pudong Development Bank, Taotao Automotive, and Jiangxin Home with 9, 9, and 8 new highs respectively [2]

主板ST股或将告别5%限制。 6月27日，沪深交易所均发布通知，拟调整主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例，由目前的5%调整为 10%。 值得注意的是，上述通知尚处于征求意见阶段，反馈截止时间为2025年7月4日。 记者梳理发现，目前沪深主板风险警示股票合计有132只。 主板风险警示股涨跌幅拟调整为10% 可能涉及哪些股票？ 6月27日，沪深交易所发布公告称，为进一步完善股票交易制度，提升定价效率，维护市场交易秩序，保 护投资者合法权益，在中国证监会统筹指导下，起草了关于《调整主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例 及有关事项的通知（征求意见稿）》（简称"征求意见稿"），拟将主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例 由5%调整为10%，调整后与主板其他股票保持一致，现就有关安排向市场公开征求意见。 若最终按照征求意见稿中的相关规则变动施行，沪深主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例，将统一变为 10%。 记者梳理发现，截至目前，沪深主板风险警示股票目前合计有132只。需要说明的是，因后续可能会有主 板风险警示股票"摘星脱帽"，或者有新的主板股票被实施风险警示，相关股票名单还会出现变动。 目前主板风险警示股票有何特点？ 上述主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has shown fluctuations, with a significant decline in profit margins, indicating a challenging economic environment and potential investment risks [1][9][10]. Revenue Growth - In the first five months of the year, the cumulative revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in the previous period, with May's month-on-month growth dropping to 0.8% [7][8][10]. - The revenue growth experienced a rebound in January and February, followed by a decline in April and May, reflecting a typical economic nominal growth pattern with insufficient growth momentum [1][7]. Profit Margins - The profit margin change was more pronounced than revenue, with May's profit declining by 9.1%, the lowest since October of the previous year, leading to a cumulative profit decline of 1.1% for the first five months [9][10][11]. - The profit growth rate turned negative again in May after briefly turning positive in March, indicating a volatile profit environment [9][10]. Industry Performance Fastest Growing Industries - Equipment manufacturing, particularly in transportation equipment (56%), general equipment (10.6%), and specialized equipment (7.1%), showed significant profit growth [15][16]. - The aerospace sector, including aircraft manufacturing (120.7%) and related equipment, also reported high profit growth rates [15][16]. - Non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries saw profit increases of 41.7% and 9.8%, respectively, likely due to rising upstream prices and demand from emerging industries [15][16]. Slowest Growing Industries - The upstream mining sector, textile and apparel industries, and durable consumer goods (automobiles and furniture) experienced the lowest profit growth rates, with coal profits down by 50.6% and automotive profits down by 11.9% [19][20]. - The decline in profits for these sectors is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic demand [19][20]. Profit Structure - The profit structure remains concentrated in midstream manufacturing, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 33.4% of incremental profits, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [20][24]. - Public utilities and raw materials industries also saw profit shares increase, indicating a shift in profit distribution within the industrial sector [20][24]. Inventory and Debt - As of the end of May, nominal inventory showed a slight decrease, while actual inventory rose by 6.8%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [28]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was 57.7%, with a slight increase year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to capital expenditure amid weak demand [30].

流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资 策略报告 基金研究 市场结构分化，主动权益基金收益跑赢指数——公募基金 2025 年半年度投资 策略 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.27） 宏观及策略研究 证 行业研究 券 聚焦内需视角下，关注以旧换新与新消费投资机会——轻工制造&纺织服饰 2025 年半年度投资策略报告 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 晨会纪要（2025/06/27） 宏观及策略研究 流动性增量预期较强，估值端存在明显支撑——A 股市场 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S115012403000 ...