Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the possibility of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates based on economic conditions [2] - The expansion of the cross-border currency pool business pilot for multinational companies aims to facilitate the centralized use of cross-border funds [3] - The State Council will hold a press conference to discuss measures to boost consumption, involving multiple government departments [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce indicates ongoing communication with the U.S. regarding trade issues, advocating for dialogue and cooperation [5] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stresses the importance of enhancing the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and ensuring housing delivery [6] Group 3 - China has submitted a supplementary document to the WTO for consultations with Canada regarding additional tariffs on key products [7] - Various companies report on their operational status, with some indicating that new projects will not significantly impact performance [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] Group 4 - Financial performance updates reveal significant profit growth for some companies, such as Hongmian Co. with a projected net profit increase of 568%-608% [22] - Other companies report varying performance metrics, with some experiencing declines in sales or profits [24][25][26]

Group 1 - The overall agenda of the Two Sessions in 2025 remains largely unchanged compared to 2024, with significant legislative activities including the review and approval of the revised National People's Congress and local people's congresses representative law [1][10][15] - The government work report sets a fiscal deficit target of around 4%, the highest since 2010, indicating a proactive stance on leveraging debt [3][17] - The emphasis on stabilizing asset prices, particularly in the real estate and stock markets, is a notable shift in macroeconomic management [4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with plans for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [2][24] - The government aims to implement a more active fiscal policy, with a focus on increasing public spending and supporting consumption through special bonds [3][19] - The report highlights the acceleration of reforms in the capital market, with a focus on enhancing the health of the stock market and supporting strategic industries [4][18] Group 3 - The real estate sector is undergoing a transformation towards higher quality and sustainability, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" [5][19] - Employment stability is prioritized, with initiatives aimed at improving job matching efficiency and supporting entrepreneurship [6][18] - The government is set to support emerging industries such as quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G, indicating a shift in focus towards future industries [7][18]

地产止跌回稳后的投资机遇——申万宏源·2025 资本市场春 季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初以来房地产市场的整体表现如何？ 当前房地产价格走势如何？是否出现波动？ 2025 年初以来，房地产市场在春节后出现了明显回暖。数据显示，主流的 20 个城市二手房认购成交量同比增长了 27%，其中杭州和东莞的表现尤为突出， 甚至翻倍。然而，与 2023 年同期相比，这一数据下降了 17%。需要注意的是， 2023 年的基数较高，因为当时疫情放开导致市场表现异常强劲。尽管如此，一 些城市如杭州、成都、深圳、长沙和沈阳在今年的表现仍超过了 2023 年同期水 • 房地产市场需求在房价下跌后自然回升，杭州、成都、深圳等城市认购销 售数据优于过去两年，北京、上海表现稳定。春节后带看量显著回升，预 示认购量有望进一步改善。 • 房地产价格走势略有走弱，挂牌价格下降但成交价格稳定，受季节性因素 和居民资产负债表影响。新房成交推盘比提升至 2.4 倍，表明新房市场去 化速度加快，市场信心有所恢复。 • 土地市场出现积极变化，北京、上海、杭州等地拍出新"地王"，3 月份 溢价率达 16%，头部企业拿地强度上升， ...

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行3月12日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1754亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.5%。 Wind数据显示，当日3532亿元逆回购到期，据此 计算，单日净回笼1778亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2.资金面 银行间资金市场周三继续平稳均衡，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率小幅回落到1.75%附近，同非银机构押信用债融入隔夜报价一致。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.33%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4.银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，中短券表现更好。 | | 1Y 2Y | | 3Y | SY | | 7Y 10Y | 超长债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.5700 ▼3.00 | 110 1.5500 ▼4.00 | 56 1.6400 ▼3.50 | 58 1.6825 ▼ 5.75 115 1.7750 ▼6.00 406 1.8200 ▼4.50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "coward's game" amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices hit six-month lows due to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with no signs of market support from him [1][4]. - Following a significant drop, Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which led to further declines in the stock market [4]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that a recession may be necessary for the U.S. economy, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will be the first to "give in" by lowering interest rates to support the economy, despite rising front-end rates during stock sell-offs [2][7]. - Analysts warn that the Fed's primary focus remains on controlling inflation, and any rate cuts may send misleading signals if economic growth slows but remains positive [2][11]. - The interaction between the Fed and the government is characterized as a "repeated game," where credibility is crucial, and the Fed may hesitate to lower rates if inflation remains above target [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the U.S., citing unfavorable trade policy assumptions and the government's management of expectations regarding potential recession [10]. - The current economic situation is described as a "manufactured recession," with concerns about the timing of necessary economic adjustments and the potential for a wealth effect [13]. - The risks of a U.S. recession could have global implications, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, affecting markets worldwide [14].

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行3月7日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1850亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.5%。Wind数据显示，当日2845亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼995亿元，为连 续五日净回笼。 2. 资金面 央行公开市场连续五日净回笼，不过银行间资金市场周五总体依然相对平稳，存款类机构隔 夜回购加权利率在1.79%左右，非银机构质押信用债或利率债融入隔夜报价相近，均集中在 1.79%-1.8%区间。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.34%。 （IMM） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在2.02%附近，较上日明显上 行。 （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1Y | | 24 | | 38 | | રેમ | | 78 | | 10V | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图层 | 1.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ample policy reserves of the central government and the establishment of a National Venture Capital Guiding Fund to support innovation and technology development in key areas [1][8]. Group 1: Central Government Policy Reserves - The Ministry of Finance has reserved sufficient policy tools and space to address potential uncertainties, including consumer subsidies such as childcare allowances, which could benefit approximately 15.5 million children, leading to an annual subsidy scale of around 150 billion [3]. - Another consumer subsidy involves expanding the "trade-in" program, which has a multiplier effect of approximately 2.2 times. The government has allocated 300 billion in special bonds for this program, which could significantly boost consumption in various sectors [4]. - Investment-driven policies may include issuing special bonds for major projects, with the possibility of increasing bond issuance to support the construction of significant projects in response to rising uncertainties [5][6]. Group 2: National Venture Capital Guiding Fund - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the establishment of a National Venture Capital Guiding Fund, focusing on investment in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, future energy, and biomedicine [8][9]. - This fund aims to support seed and early-stage enterprises, similar to the DARPA model in the U.S., which has successfully driven technological breakthroughs through market-oriented funding and support mechanisms [9][10]. - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to leverage the advantages of a new type of national system to enhance key technology research and development [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key economic policies and initiatives announced during the press conference of the National People's Congress, focusing on consumption stimulation, debt management, and financial reforms to support economic growth. Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - The National Development and Reform Commission will soon implement a special action plan to boost consumption [3] - The contribution rate of China's economic growth to the world remains around 30%, with new industries and business models accounting for over 18% of the total economic value [4] - The private economy's export share increased by 1.4 percentage points to 64.7% last year, with private investment in manufacturing and infrastructure growing by 10.8% and 5.8% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Debt Management - Local government debt risks have been effectively alleviated, with a total of 2.96 trillion yuan in replacement bonds issued as of March 5 [6] - The average interest rate on last year's 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds decreased by over 2.5 percentage points, leading to an estimated reduction of over 200 billion yuan in interest expenses [6] Group 3: Financial Policies - The central government plans to issue 500 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks in replenishing core tier-one capital [7] - The central government's transfer payments to local governments will increase by 8.4% to 10.34 trillion yuan this year, focusing on general transfer payments to enhance local financial capacity [8] - The People's Bank of China will consider reducing reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [13][14] Group 4: Capital Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission aims to accelerate capital market reforms and enhance the inclusiveness of multi-tiered markets [19] - The commission has revised over 50 regulatory rules since the introduction of the new "National Nine Articles," aiming to improve regulatory efficiency [19][20] - The total market value of public funds holding A-shares has increased from 5.1 trillion yuan at the beginning of last year to over 6 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.4% [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the monetary policy and financial support measures for technological innovation in China, as outlined by the Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, during a press conference at the National People's Congress. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - In 2024, the central bank implemented multiple monetary policy adjustments, including two reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, leading to a significant decline in loan market quotation rates. By the end of 2024, the growth rates of social financing, broad money M2, and RMB loans were all between 7% and 8%, exceeding the nominal economic growth rate by approximately 3 percentage points, with financing costs at historical lows [2]. - For 2025, the central bank plans to maintain a relatively loose monetary stance and will consider further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions. There is room for downward adjustments in the reserve requirement ratio and the rates of structural monetary policy tools [2]. Group 2: Financial Support for Technological Innovation - The central bank, in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology, plans to introduce a "Technology Board" in the bond market to enhance financial support for technological innovation. This initiative aims to facilitate the issuance of technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and support the issuance of medium- to long-term bonds by growing and mature tech companies [4][5]. - The central bank will also expand the scale of re-loans for technological innovation and technological transformation from the current 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan to better meet the financing needs of enterprises [5]. Group 3: Risk Prevention and Financial Stability - The overall stability of China's financial system is emphasized, with local debt and real estate risks continuing to recede. By the end of 2024, commercial banks had a capital adequacy ratio of 16%, a non-performing loan ratio of 1.5%, and a provision coverage ratio of 211%, all significantly above regulatory standards [6]. - Approximately 40% of financing platforms have exited the market through various means, including market exit and transformation, indicating progress in mitigating local financing platform debt risks [6][7]. - The average interest rate for newly issued bonds by financing platforms was 2.67% in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant decline in risk premium levels in the financial market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic regulation and innovation to promote economic recovery, highlighting effective fiscal and monetary policies, support for key sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market and capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The report advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing both total and structural monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and match social financing growth with economic growth and price expectations [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets, as well as to enhance support for technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Financial Coordination - The report calls for active expansion of effective investment, aligning government investment tools with national development strategies and public needs, and accelerating the implementation of key projects [6]. - It proposes a central budget investment of 7.35 trillion yuan for the year, with a focus on effective project selection and fund management to prevent inefficient investments [6]. Group 3: Policy Financial Support - The report highlights the need to strengthen policy financial support, accelerate the development of venture capital, and enhance patient capital [8]. Group 4: Financial System Reform - The report outlines plans for zero-based budgeting reforms at the central level and encourages local governments to deepen similar reforms, aiming to innovate in expenditure standards and performance evaluations [10]. - It emphasizes the need to improve the financial standards and systems for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance [11]. Group 5: Capital Injection for State-Owned Banks - The report mentions plans to issue special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support capital replenishment for large state-owned commercial banks [13]. Group 6: Foreign Trade Financial Services - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing foreign trade development, enhancing financial services related to financing, settlement, and foreign exchange, and expanding export credit insurance coverage [15]. Group 7: Risk Prevention in Finance - The report emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve key financial risks, ensuring that systemic risks do not occur, particularly in the real estate sector [17]. - It advocates for a market-oriented approach to address risks in local small and medium financial institutions, including capital replenishment and market exit strategies [18].