Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic beef and raw milk markets expected to experience upward momentum [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growth area, benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report suggests that the feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is likely to benefit from the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Swine - The report notes that as of October 10, the price of live pigs is 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and down 38.45% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 188.57 yuan/head, down 5.04% week-on-week and down 33.33% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - For white chickens, prices are slightly increasing, with chick prices at 3.23 yuan/bird, up 1.25% week-on-week, and broiler prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1][14]. - Yellow chicken prices are stable, with prices for various types around 5.0 to 8.7 yuan/kg, showing a decrease of 9.09% to 3.33% week-on-week [1][14]. Beef - The domestic beef market price is 61.13 yuan/kg, down 0.20% week-on-week but up 21.05% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report anticipates a new round of beef price increases and a reversal in the beef cycle by 2025 [2][3]. Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk is 3.04 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.19% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the acceleration of dairy cow liquidation in Q3 may lead to a price turning point by year-end [2][3]. Soybean Meal - The report indicates that soybean meal prices are supported by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2][16]. - The report notes that the valuation of soybean meal is at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade developments [2][3]. Corn - The domestic corn price is 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2][16]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2][3]. Sugar - The report highlights an increase in short-term imports of sugar, with prices in Guangxi at 5760 yuan/ton, down 0.35% week-on-week [2][16]. - Attention is drawn to the rhythm of imports and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2][3]. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, Guangming Meat [3]. - Swine: DeKang Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agriculture, Wens Foodstuffs, and others [3]. - Pet sector: Guibao Pet, Reap Bio [3]. - Feed sector: Haida Group [3]. - Poultry: Lihua Co., Yisheng Co., and Shengnong Development [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The report highlights the support for long-term pig prices due to industry restructuring, and it sees potential recovery for undervalued leading companies in the pig farming sector [3]. - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aquaculture, benefiting companies like Haida Group [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from improved domestic demand [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price for beef at 61.13 yuan/kg as of October 10, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.05% [2]. - The report expects a significant acceleration in raw milk prices by the end of the year, with the average price at 3.04 yuan/kg [2]. Swine - The report notes a decrease in pig prices to 11.14 yuan/kg, down 7.48% week-on-week and 38.45% year-on-year, but anticipates a long-term price stabilization due to industry restructuring [1][3]. Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for white chickens, with prices at 6.68 yuan/kg, down 0.30% week-on-week [1]. - Yellow chicken prices are expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with prices for various types of yellow chicken ranging from 5.00 to 8.70 yuan/kg [1]. Feed and Ingredients - Soybean meal prices are supported by supply-demand dynamics, with current prices at 3006 yuan/ton, up 0.6% week-on-week [2]. - Corn prices are expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with current prices at 2233 yuan/ton, down 5.06% week-on-week but up 3.24% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pig, poultry, pet, and feed sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, MuYuan Co., and HaiDa Group [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The sales reports of A-share listed pig companies for September 2025 indicate a mixed trend in sales volume and revenue, while the average selling price has continued to decline both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][4]. Sales Performance - Tianbang Food reported sales of 612,700 pigs in September 2025, with a revenue of 634 million yuan and an average price of 13.69 yuan/kg, showing month-on-month changes of 15.68% in sales volume, 2.14% in revenue, and a decrease of 8.88% in average price [2]. - Dabeinong's sales for September 2025 were 373,700 pigs, generating a revenue of 541 million yuan, with a 6.10% increase in sales volume month-on-month and a 33.08% increase year-on-year, while revenue decreased by 6.24% year-on-year [2]. - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs in September 2025, with a revenue of 9.066 billion yuan and an average price of 12.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.94% in average price and 22.46% in revenue [3]. - Wens Foodstuffs reported sales of 3.3253 million pigs, with a revenue of 4.975 billion yuan and an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 15.16% in revenue [3]. - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, generating a revenue of 1.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.47% in average price [3]. Price Trends - Since October 2025, pig prices have continued to decline, with the market price dropping to 12.50 yuan/kg by October 10, 2025, down from 12.59 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. - The wholesale price of pork has also decreased, reaching 18.85 yuan/kg on October 10, 2025, compared to 19.40 yuan/kg at the end of September [5]. Futures Market - Domestic pig futures have seen a significant decline, with a cumulative drop of approximately 9% in September 2025 and over 8% in the first two trading days of October [6]. Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is entering a pressure period, with expectations of continued price pressure in the coming months due to supply-demand dynamics [7]. - The market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply, with prices likely to continue fluctuating at low levels [7].

Core Insights - The pig market is facing significant pressure in October, with prices dropping sharply after the holiday season, raising concerns about maintaining prices above 5 yuan per kilogram [2][4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The backlog of pigs that accumulated from May to August is now impacting the market, with a projected increase of over 5% in the slaughter plans for large-scale pig enterprises in October [4]. - The cost of pig farming has escalated, with some enterprises reporting costs as low as 11 yuan per kilogram, leading to widespread losses as the average price has fallen to around 11.4 yuan per kilogram [5][8]. - The sentiment among farmers has weakened significantly due to the failure of price support during the holiday season, with fears that prices could drop below 5 yuan per kilogram [7][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The government is keen on reducing pig production capacity but aims to avoid a drastic decline in prices, as indicated by recent stockpiling initiatives [9][10]. - October is characterized by lower meat consumption due to cooler weather and increased supply, but there is potential for improved demand in November as southern regions begin their curing processes [12]. - Although some regions may see prices dip below 5 yuan, a widespread drop below this threshold is considered unlikely, with prices expected to stabilize between 5 and 5.5 yuan [12].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation of the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" in the context of supporting the development of local特色产业, particularly focusing on the Lianshan black goat industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Development Initiatives - The provincial government, through the "Hundred Thousand Project," is actively facilitating connections between local特色产业 and well-known food and beverage companies to enhance market access and promote high-quality agricultural development in Lianshan [1][4]. - A special investigation was conducted by the Guangzhou Restaurant Group to explore cooperation opportunities in the black goat and other food materials, focusing on the advantages of black goat breeds and smart farming technologies [2][4]. Group 2: Collaborative Efforts - A meeting involving government, educational institutions, and enterprises discussed the challenges and opportunities in the Lianshan black goat industry, aiming to integrate resources for procurement, brand building, and talent development [4][6]. - The establishment of a comprehensive cooperation model was proposed, emphasizing a collaborative approach among government, enterprises, and academic institutions to enhance the supply chain and promote local agricultural products [4][6]. Group 3: Market Expansion Strategies - The work team organized visits to commercial groups to negotiate the entry of Lianshan特色农产品 into supermarkets, aiming to create a new model of "direct supply from the origin + supermarket retail" to shorten the supply chain and increase product visibility [6][7]. - Initial cooperation intentions were reached with commercial groups to promote Lianshan black goats and vegetables, which is expected to help local farmers increase their income and improve the overall quality of the industry [6][7].

Group 1 - The core observation indicates that in the monitoring of prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories, there were 15 products with price increases, 31 with decreases, and 4 remaining stable from mid to late September 2025 [1] - The national price of live pigs (external three yuan) is reported at 12.4 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a decrease of 4.6% compared to mid-September [1]

Core Points - The company held the first meetings for the 2025 Operator, Fighter, and Key Employee Stock Ownership Plans on October 9, 2025, via communication methods, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [1][2] - The meetings had high attendance, with 202 participants representing 9,116,814 shares (94.84%) for the Operator Plan, 3,338 participants representing 22,225,434 shares (94.58%) for the Fighter Plan, and 969 participants representing 8,170,575 shares (93.29%) for the Key Employee Plan [1][2][3] Group 1: Operator Stock Ownership Plan - The establishment of the 2025 Operator Stock Ownership Plan Management Committee was approved, consisting of three members, with a term aligned with the plan's duration [2][3] - The election of committee members, including Mao Jinyi, Xiao Yulong, and Zhang Hehe, was unanimously approved, with no conflicts of interest reported [3][4] - The committee was authorized to manage various aspects of the stock ownership plan, including convening meetings, opening accounts, and overseeing daily management [4][5] Group 2: Fighter Stock Ownership Plan - The establishment of the 2025 Fighter Stock Ownership Plan Management Committee was approved, with a similar structure and term as the Operator Plan [6][7] - The election of committee members, including Cao Qingwei, Yang Zhonghua, and Chen Yulai, was approved, with a high approval rate [7][8] - The committee was granted authority to handle plan-related matters, including account management and participation in financing activities [8][9] Group 3: Key Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The establishment of the 2025 Key Employee Stock Ownership Plan Management Committee was approved, following the same structure as the previous plans [10][11] - The election of committee members, including Niu Chao Cui, Pan Zhiying, and Chang Yi He, was approved, with no reported conflicts of interest [11][12] - The committee was authorized to manage the plan's operations, including account management and asset distribution [12][13]

Core Points - The company, Hunan New Wufeng Co., Ltd., reported its main operating data for the first nine months of 2025, highlighting significant sales figures in the pig farming sector [2][3]. Group 1: Main Operating Data - The company sold a total of 3.5555 million pigs from January to September 2025, with 2.0838 million of these being market pigs [2]. Group 2: Sales Breakdown - Specific sales data for feed and slaughtered meat products were mentioned but not detailed in the provided text [3]. Group 3: Additional Notes - The data presented is unaudited and may differ from periodic report disclosures, serving only as a reference for investors [3]. - The company acknowledges potential risks related to animal epidemics, market price fluctuations, and changes in breeding schedules that could affect future sales [3]. - The company emphasizes that the pig market price volatility represents a systemic risk for the entire pig production industry [3]. Group 4: Disclosure Information - The company’s designated media for information disclosure includes several financial newspapers and the Shanghai Stock Exchange website [4].

Group 1: Sales Performance - In September 2025, the company sold 26.42 million chicks, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.97% and a month-on-month increase of 3.47% [2] - The sales revenue for the same period was 85.34 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 25.16% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [2] - The increase in chick sales is attributed to a rise in the number of breeding chickens and an increase in hatching eggs [3] Group 2: Guarantee Matters - The company approved a guarantee of 1 billion yuan for its subsidiaries to meet operational funding needs, with mutual guarantees among subsidiaries totaling 50 million yuan [8] - Recent developments include a guarantee of 19.56 million yuan for a subsidiary's bank acceptance bill and a loan of 20 million yuan, both with a guarantee period of three years [10] - The company has provided a total of 648.31 million yuan in guarantees to external units, with actual guarantees amounting to 545.18 million yuan, which is 2.70% of the latest audited net assets [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The theoretical supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative across the board. The spot market has entered a period of concentrated decline. Under pessimistic sentiment, the premium of the near - month contract on the futures market has been continuously squeezed out. - Considering that the price decline started earlier this year, it has released some risks before the Spring Festival to a certain extent, making the themes of inventory accumulation and consumption in the later period more prominent. Pay attention to when the pessimistic sentiment eases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the far - month contracts. - As the premium space of the near - month contract is squeezed out, the operation strategy should change from shorting on rallies to reducing short positions. After the spot price stabilizes, consider the possibility of a 1 - 3 positive spread, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for the far - end contracts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: The market supply pressure has been concentratedly realized, and the consumption before and after holidays fell short of expectations. Since September, the live - hog spot price has dropped significantly. The weight has not decreased significantly, the fat - to - standard price difference has increased slightly month - on - month but the absolute level is limited, and the number of pens of small - scale farmers has declined and is lower year - on - year. The average price in Henan dropped by 2.52 yuan to 11.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 2.1 yuan to 11.16 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 2.7 yuan to 12.02 yuan/kg. The plan completion rate in September was low, and the supply in October is still sufficient. The theoretical and planned slaughter scale is large, and the consumption has declined slightly month - on - month. The price is expected to be weak in consolidation, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month as the temperature drops [11]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight decrease of 60,000 heads month - on - month (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve the supply situation next year. The data from different sources shows different trends in sow inventory changes, and more evidence is needed to determine whether the capacity has been effectively reduced. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November has a significant increase, but the continuous weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. The current market still shows a clear situation of oversupply [11]. - **Demand Side**: At the beginning of September, with the start of the new semester, the temperature drop in the middle and late September, and the stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, there may be marginal improvement in demand. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter a low - season again until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. For the arbitrage strategy, take profit on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads on dips, and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread. The profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, the recommended period is 2 months, and the core driving factors include policies, weight, basic supply, and fat - to - standard price difference [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price has dropped significantly since September due to concentrated supply pressure and lower - than - expected consumption. The prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have all decreased. The price is expected to be weak in October, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of the month [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price has dropped sharply, the basis has decreased significantly, and the month - to - month spread follows the reverse - spread logic [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In August, the official sow inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity may lead to a weaker market in 2025. The effectiveness of capacity reduction needs more evidence [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is an increase in supply from September to November, but the weight reduction of large - scale farms from June to August has advanced part of the supply, which may offset some pressure. The current market shows oversupply [42]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: The proportion of small - pig slaughter has increased slightly, indicating a slight resurgence of pig diseases. The proportion of large - pig slaughter is not high, and attention should be paid to the fat - to - standard price difference [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has started to stabilize and rebound, showing an oversupply situation [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: There may be marginal improvement in demand at the beginning of September and during the holidays, but it will enter a low - season after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. - **Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Price Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. - **Fresh - Frozen Price Spread and Fresh - Sales Rate**: No specific data analysis is provided in the summary, but relevant data charts are presented. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen - product inventory is in a state of slow recovery [74].