天眼查App显示，近日，半山农工贸禄劝有限公司成立，法定代表人为黄英，注册资本6万人民币，经 营范围为许可项目：食品销售；食品生产。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活 动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：国内贸易代理；初级农产品收购； 食用农产品初加工；食用农产品批发；食用农产品零售；农副产品销售；互联网销售（除销售需要许可 的商品）；食品互联网销售（仅销售预包装食品）；保健食品（预包装）销售；食品销售（仅销售预包 装食品）；包装服务；谷物销售；农产品的生产、销售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；豆及薯类 销售；粮食收购；地产中草药（不含中药饮片）购销；中草药收购；未经加工的坚果、干果销售；个人 互联网直播服务；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；食用菌种植；信 息技术咨询服务；日用百货销售；日用品销售；销售代理。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依 法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese buyers have collectively suspended the procurement of Brazilian soybeans for December and January, signaling a significant shift in the market dynamics between China and Brazil, the world's largest soybean buyer and supplier respectively [1][7]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Brazilian soybean offshore prices have surged from $565 to $628 per ton over the past three months, an increase of over 11% [3]. - The price premium for Brazilian soybeans has become unreasonable, with the landed price per bushel being nearly $3 higher than Chicago futures, while U.S. soybeans are only $1.7 higher [3]. Group 2: Brazilian Confidence Factors - Brazil's confidence stems from three main factors: the exclusion of U.S. soybeans from the Chinese market since May, limited alternative suppliers capable of meeting China's demand, and the belief that China has no choice but to buy Brazilian soybeans due to its significant import gap [4][6]. - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges, with storage facilities at over 98% capacity and reports of grain storage collapses [4]. Group 3: China's Countermeasures - In response to Brazil's price hikes, Chinese buyers have paused purchases, leading to increased storage utilization and rising storage costs in Brazil [7]. - China has quickly pivoted to secure a large order of 130,000 tons from Argentina, capitalizing on Argentina's recent tax policy changes that made their soybeans more competitive [9]. Group 4: China's Strategic Advantages - China has established three strategic advantages: a substantial national reserve of over 200 million tons of soybeans, diversified import sources from 16 countries, and increased use of alternative feed sources, reducing reliance on soybeans [12][18]. - The increase in domestic soybean planting area by 15% this year indicates a shift towards self-sufficiency and reduced dependence on Brazilian imports [18]. Group 5: Market Implications - Brazil's short-sighted pricing strategy may lead to a loss of long-term market share in China, as the country could have solidified its position instead of pursuing immediate profits [14][20]. - The ongoing shifts in China's soybean import landscape suggest a move towards a more resilient and diversified food security system, reducing reliance on any single supplier [18][20].

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The atmosphere surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China high-level meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea has shifted, with President Trump indicating that the goal of tariffs is not to "harm China" [1] - Trump has mentioned that China needs to make "three major concessions" regarding soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl, suggesting that if China meets these demands, he may consider lowering tariffs [1][3] - The soybean trade has become a focal point in U.S.-China negotiations, reflecting the interests of American farmers and showcasing the political leverage that agricultural trade holds in the U.S. [3][5] Group 2: Soybean Trade Impact - Due to the trade war, the cost for Chinese companies to purchase U.S. soybeans has significantly increased, leading them to seek more cost-effective alternatives [3] - China's imports of soybeans from Brazil have surged to over 70% of its total soybean imports, while the share of U.S. soybeans has plummeted to below 23% [5] - The situation highlights China's ability to reshape the global agricultural trade landscape due to its vast market demand [7] Group 3: Rare Earths as a Strategic Asset - The rare earths issue illustrates China's strategic advantage, as U.S. high-tech industries heavily rely on rare earth supplies from China [9] - China's recent regulations have expanded from resource export controls to include technology and equipment, indicating a shift in control over the entire supply chain [11] - The potential deterrent effect of China's rare earths strategy contrasts sharply with the diminishing effectiveness of U.S. tariffs [13] Group 4: Fentanyl and Political Narrative - The fentanyl issue has evolved into a political narrative for the U.S., with the country attributing its domestic crisis to China, despite strict controls on fentanyl within China [15][17] - The U.S. has imposed a 20% tariff on all goods from China under the guise of addressing the fentanyl crisis, which appears to be more about political maneuvering than actual drug control [19] - This situation underscores the complexity of the U.S.-China relationship, where fentanyl serves as a narrative tool rather than a straightforward economic issue [21] Group 5: Conclusion on U.S.-China Relations - The three issues of soybeans, rare earths, and fentanyl represent a complex puzzle in the current U.S.-China rivalry, with each issue reflecting different aspects of the power dynamics at play [21][23] - Trump's fluctuating strategies reveal a search for leverage in these asymmetric battlegrounds, but the fundamental power structures remain unchanged [23]

Core Insights - The trade negotiations between the US and India are nearing completion, with the US planning to reduce average tariffs on certain Indian goods from nearly 50% to around 15% [1][3] - The negotiations are influenced by China's role, as India's adjustments in trade are seen as a balancing act between the US and Russia [1][5] Trade Conditions - The most notable condition is the significant reduction in tariffs, which would greatly benefit India's manufacturing sector [3] - The US is demanding that India gradually reduce its procurement of Russian oil and open its market to US agricultural products, such as non-GMO corn and soybean meal [3][5] - Since August, Indian state-owned refineries have been slowing down their purchases of Russian oil, indicating a shift in energy procurement strategies [3][7] Agricultural Impact - The reduction in tariffs could lead to increased exports of Indian textiles, engineering machinery, and chemical products to the US, potentially boosting India's export figures for the fiscal year 2025 [5] - The decrease in Chinese purchases of US corn has created an opportunity for India to step in as a new buyer, facilitating the trade negotiations [5] Risks and Considerations - Reducing reliance on discounted Russian oil may compress profit margins for Indian refineries, leading to potential domestic price increases [7] - Opening the market too much to US agricultural products could disrupt India's own agricultural system [7] - The agreement includes provisions for periodic reviews to mitigate risks associated with sudden policy changes from the US [7] Conclusion - The negotiations highlight the interconnected nature of modern international trade, where shifts in one country's purchasing decisions can accelerate negotiations between others [9] - If the agreement is finalized, India must remain vigilant about the broader implications of these changes in the context of global power dynamics [9]

中国早就不把所有货都押在一个地方了，他们早就搭起一个三角采购的路子，巴西出货多，阿根廷便 宜，乌拉圭和俄罗斯顶在后头，海关数据说，二零二五年前七个月，巴西出口了四千二百二十六万吨， 阿根廷比去年涨了六成七，乌拉圭涨了四成一，俄罗斯也涨了三成五，中国还用期货对冲，六成以上的 进口都罩住了，一边在巴西投港口，一边帮阿根廷修铁路，就为别让供应链断了。 2025年9月22日，阿根廷突然宣布大豆出口不收税，中国采购团队当天就签了十船订单，第二天又加了 十船，两天里锁了130万吨大豆，价格只比芝加哥期货高两美元一吨，这一下把巴西打了个措手不及， 港口的船空着等货，出口商不敢多投产，小公司开始裁人，巴西全国谷物协会赶紧把全年对华出口预期 从1.1亿吨往下调。 之前中国进口的大豆，七成以上是从巴西来的，2025年前八个月，中国买了七千三百三十一万吨大豆， 巴西占了百分之七十一点六，可阿根廷这一手，把局面给打乱了，巴西这几年太稳了，觉得中国没别的 路可走，把出口价抬得老高，每吨比美国豆贵六十六块，出口商还串在一起，囤着货不卖，说中国只能 认这个价，结果中国一转身，就去找别人下单了。 美国那边也没占到便宜，2018年加了关税，价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international soybean market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, with China shifting its imports from the U.S. to Brazil and then to Argentina due to rising prices from Brazilian exporters [1][3][40]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - From May to September, China ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a record low of zero imports in November 2018 [3][17]. - Brazil's soybean exports to China surged to 71.6% from January to August this year [5]. - Brazilian exporters raised prices significantly, with prices per bushel exceeding Chicago futures by $2.8 to $2.9, and the premium for soybeans at the Port of Paranaguá reaching $66.1 per ton, the highest in nearly four years [4][7]. Group 2: China's Response - In mid-October, multiple Chinese companies collectively halted purchases of Brazilian soybeans scheduled for December, indicating a strategic decision rather than a spontaneous reaction [13][40]. - China has developed two key strategies to lower prices: expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in Brazil for the 2024-2025 season and progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations [15][19]. - China's soybean reserves are robust, with over 200 million tons stored in the northeast alone, allowing for price stabilization through strategic releases [17][19]. Group 3: Argentina's Opportunity - Argentina secured a substantial order of 130 million tons from China, equivalent to several months of its usual export volume, due to a significant reduction in export taxes from 26% to 0% [26][28]. - The timing of Argentina's price competitiveness coincided with China's need to fill a supply gap from November to January [30][40]. - Argentina's proactive measures to regain market share, combined with favorable policy changes, allowed it to capitalize on Brazil's pricing strategy [34][40]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The shift in soybean orders reflects a changing global food trade landscape, emphasizing that no supplier is indispensable and that fair trade practices are essential for long-term relationships [40][42]. - China's diversified import channels and strategic reserves enhance its negotiating power and ability to manage supply chain risks [42][44].

Core Points - The China-ASEAN Trade and Investment Promotion Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on "Green Development and Building a Better Future" [1] - The conference aimed to deepen economic and trade cooperation between Beijing's sub-center and ASEAN countries through policy interpretation, project signing, and business matching [1] - The inclusion of a "Green Economy" chapter in the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 provides institutional support for cooperation in green trade, investment, and standards [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation - China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with ASEAN being China's largest trading partner for five years [2] - From January to July this year, trade between China and ASEAN reached $597 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, accounting for 16.7% of China's total foreign trade during the same period [2] - The successful signing of three cross-border cooperation projects at the conference highlights the focus on green trade in agricultural products, cultural tourism integration, and smart energy monitoring [3] Group 2: Green Development Initiatives - Thailand's "30@30" policy aims for 30% of domestically produced vehicles to be electric by 2030, requiring deep participation from Chinese enterprises in technology transfer and talent training [1] - Myanmar is focusing on building a green energy infrastructure, leveraging its rich renewable resources, and seeks further cooperation with China in green technology transfer and joint research [2] - The conference reinforced Beijing's sub-center as a "China-ASEAN Green Cooperation Hub," emphasizing the need for collaboration in green industries, finance, and culture to address global climate change challenges [3]

Core Insights - The collaboration between companies has led to unexpected results, including the successful acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang for the 2024/2025 season [1][4] - The "Tongzhou Cup" event has facilitated partnerships across industries, enhancing business opportunities and financial supply chain activities [1][4] Group 1: Business Collaboration - Tongzhou Group has leveraged its resources in Xinjiang to establish partnerships, particularly in the red date industry, which is central to its business strategy [2][3] - The collaboration allows for the rental of idle warehouses and storage spaces, enabling efficient red date acquisition and initial processing [2][3] - The partnership has opened new business fields for Tongzhou Group, allowing it to engage in cross-industry operations while maintaining controllable risks [2][3] Group 2: Financial Supply Chain - Tongzhou Group provides supply chain financial services to alleviate the funding pressure during peak red date acquisition seasons [4] - The collaboration enhances the financial risk control system by utilizing industry data from partners [4] - The partnership has created a positive cycle of employment and economic development in the Xinjiang red date production area, benefiting both companies and local farmers [4] Group 3: Market Impact - The collaboration has significantly reduced acquisition and transportation costs for red dates, improving market competitiveness for partners [3] - The annual sales of red dates and related products for the partner company are around 300 million yuan, with a deep processing capacity of 20,000 tons [4] - The "Tongzhou Cup" event has created opportunities for comprehensive cooperation with leading agricultural enterprises, enhancing market influence and competitiveness [4]

Core Insights - The export price of Brazilian soybeans has surged to $2.8 to $2.9 per bushel, approximately 70% higher than U.S. soybeans, creating challenges for Chinese buyers [1][3] - Chinese importers have suspended soybean orders for December to January due to high procurement costs, reflecting both economic considerations and food security concerns [1][3] - Brazil's soybean price increase is attributed to domestic supply-demand imbalances and international market fluctuations, with U.S. exports to China plummeting by 78% year-on-year [1][3] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Brazilian soybean planting area is expected to reach a record 121 million hectares in the 2025/26 season, contributing to increased agricultural output [3] - Short-term supply-demand fluctuations, influenced by Chinese demand and policy changes, have led to rapid price increases despite favorable harvest expectations [3] - The procurement cost of Brazilian soybeans is approximately 200 RMB higher than U.S. soybeans, impacting profit margins for Chinese oilseed enterprises [5] Group 2: Strategic Responses - Chinese buyers are maintaining a calm approach, leveraging mature supply chain management and diversified import channels to mitigate reliance on Brazilian soybeans [3][5] - China has over 800 million tons of strategic soybean reserves, sufficient to support short-term supply needs [3] - The collective suspension of orders by Chinese importers signals a rational response to market conditions, emphasizing that no supplier is irreplaceable [5] Group 3: Market Implications - The trade dynamics between the U.S. and Brazil are increasingly complex, affecting both national economies and the global market [5] - Brazil's high pricing strategy may yield short-term profits but risks long-term market share loss if China resumes purchasing U.S. soybeans [5] - The global agricultural market is evolving, with competition intensifying as countries strive to enhance export capabilities to capture the Chinese market [5][7] Group 4: Food Security Considerations - The diversification of the soybean supply chain is critical for ensuring food security, with countries adjusting policies to balance self-sufficiency and diverse sourcing [7] - The relationship between Brazil and China in the soybean market is characterized by ongoing changes and challenges, necessitating a balance between price and supply [7] - Future agricultural markets will involve not just transactions but also a long-term contest of intelligence and strength among trading nations [7]

Core Insights - The price of Brazilian soybeans for export to China has surged by 79.9% since the beginning of the year, reaching a seven-year high, indicating a significant tension between the world's largest soybean importer and its main supplier [1][3]. Price Dynamics - The recent price increase of Brazilian soybeans is driven by multiple factors, including adverse weather conditions in the Mato Grosso region, which have raised concerns about a potential 5% to 8% decrease in new season yields [3] - Existing soybean stocks in Brazil are nearly depleted, with new season soybeans not expected to be shipped until late January, creating a supply gap [3] - Logistical challenges are exacerbating the situation, with Brazilian ports expected to export 7.12 million tons of soybeans in October, a 60% year-on-year increase, leading to extended waiting times of up to 45 days [3] Market Speculation - Speculative trading by Brazilian exporters has intensified price fluctuations, with prices at the Paranaguá port exceeding Chicago futures by nearly $3 per bushel, while U.S. soybeans have a premium of only $1.7 per bushel [5] - In September, 93% of China's soybean imports came from Brazil, giving Brazilian exporters more pricing power amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have reduced U.S. soybean market share in China from 41% in 2016 to 21% in 2024 [5] Domestic Impact - Domestic soybean processing companies are facing significant cost pressures, with losses exceeding 200 yuan per ton for processing Brazilian soybeans, leading to production cuts [7] - The China Soybean Industry Association confirmed that domestic buyers have not yet purchased Brazilian soybeans for December and January shipments, indicating a rejection of current prices [7] - China has substantial soybean reserves, with 4.5 million tons available, sufficient for over three months of national use [7] Diversification Strategies - China's strategy to diversify its soybean imports has provided flexibility against price volatility, with Argentina's zero export tax leading to a rapid purchase of 1.3 million tons of soybeans [9] - Russia and Ukraine are also contributing to China's soybean supply, with monthly shipments from Russia exceeding 200,000 tons [9] Technological Advancements - The use of alternative feed ingredients, such as canola and cottonseed meal, is being promoted to reduce reliance on soybean meal, with a target to decrease soybean meal's share in feed from 15.3% to 12% by 2027 [10] - Domestic soybean production potential is being explored, with plans to expand intercropping in key regions, potentially increasing soybean output by 15 million tons [10] Future Outlook - Two critical upcoming events could influence the market: the new Brazilian soybean harvest and potential progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, which could reopen the Chinese market to U.S. soybeans [11] - Brazil's government plans to invest $2.3 billion in port upgrades, which may alleviate logistical bottlenecks by 2026 [13] Trade Dynamics - The trade relationship between Brazil and China has evolved significantly, with Brazil becoming the largest soybean supplier to China, accounting for 71% of total imports in 2024 [15] - China's shift from reliance on a single supplier to a diversified procurement strategy reflects a strategic approach to ensure food security and enhance bargaining power in international soybean trade [15][17]