Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the "administrative time-of-use electricity pricing" policy will significantly impact the renewable energy sector, particularly affecting the revenue models of solar and wind energy investors, as well as the operations of retail electricity companies [4][11]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration announced that from December 17, 2025, electricity users participating in market transactions will no longer follow government-mandated time-of-use pricing [4][5]. - The previous time-of-use pricing aimed to guide users to shift electricity consumption from peak to off-peak periods, ensuring grid stability [6][9]. Group 2: Impacts on Renewable Energy - The fixed time-of-use pricing model has become outdated, leading to issues such as fixed pricing not reflecting real-time supply and demand, particularly during peak solar generation times [9][10]. - The cancellation of fixed pricing will disrupt the revenue models of solar and wind energy investors, as their previous calculations based on fixed periods and prices will no longer be valid [12][13]. - New market dynamics may allow for better resource allocation through market pricing, potentially leading to higher returns if managed effectively [12][14]. Group 3: Effects on Retail Electricity Companies - Retail electricity companies, which previously profited from fixed pricing, will face increased trading risks as they must now engage in market negotiations [11][12]. - The traditional model of "easy profits" for retail companies will be challenged, necessitating improved trading management to maintain profitability [11]. Group 4: Storage and Flexibility - The previous revenue model for commercial energy storage, which relied on charging during low-price periods and discharging during high-price periods, will be rendered ineffective [12][14]. - However, the shift to a market-driven approach may create new opportunities for energy storage systems to provide grid support and participate in ancillary services, thus generating new revenue streams [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares is expected to rise from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a more favorable profitability trend [1] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on four main lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a particular emphasis on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the characteristics of "investment stronger than consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth are observed, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, and the recovery of trade settlement rates along with visa-free entry for foreign tourists has led to improved sales net profit margins in sectors such as aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - The financial landscape shows a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their allocation to equities; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage are expected to resonate with the non-bank sector and the recovery of ROE [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10] Core Insights - In November, the national trading volume of green certificates reached 132.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 143%, marking a historical high for monthly trading scale. From January to November, the trading of green certificates accounted for 41.81% of the issued tradable scale, an increase of 27.65 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, indicating a continuous alleviation of the oversupply issue in green certificates [2][12] - The average trading price of green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, showing a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The improvement in both supply and demand sides is expected to provide long-term support for green certificate prices, further catalyzing the recovery of the utility sector's attributes and growth narrative [2][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in new installed capacity for thermal power, with a historical high of 77.52 million kilowatts added from January to November, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.41%. This expansion is expected to enhance the power system's regulation capacity and alleviate the pressure on renewable energy consumption and electricity prices [2][12] Summary by Sections Green Certificate Trading - The trading volume of green certificates in November reached 132.12 million, a 143% increase year-on-year, with the trading scale hitting a historical high. The trading of green certificates from January to November totaled 728 million, a 119% increase year-on-year. The proportion of traded green certificates to the issued tradable scale reached 41.81%, up 27.65 percentage points from 2024 [2][12] - The average trading price for green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The price stability is supported by the synchronized improvement in supply and demand, with expectations of rational expansion in supply due to policy changes [2][12] Installed Capacity - From January to November, the total new installed capacity was 44.557 million kilowatts, with November alone contributing 4.773 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 27.86%. Wind and solar power installations saw significant growth, with wind power increasing by 59.42% and solar power by 33.25% year-on-year [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the substantial expansion of thermal power capacity will significantly enhance the power system's ability to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy outputs, thereby stabilizing electricity prices [2][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, and Huadian International, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation. It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and New天绿色能源 [2][12]

从中国电科院获悉，近日，由该院牵头研发的"亿千瓦级低压分布式光伏智能感知与调控关键技术、设 备研制及应用"成果，入选2025能源科技高价值项目，并获得中国技术市场协会能源科技专业委员会五 星最高评价。该技术破解了低压光伏发展痛点，已实现规模化应用，为新型电力系统建设提供了"硬 核"支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Guangdong electricity annual trading shows a "volume increase and price decrease" trend, with the overall on-grid electricity price remaining stable year-on-year [4]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Price - The total trading volume excluding green electricity increased by 5.38% year-on-year, reaching a recent high, while the average transaction price decreased by 5.03%, corresponding to 2 cents/kWh [4]. - The average wholesale electricity price for 2025 was 0.392 yuan/kWh, while for 2026 it is projected to be 0.372 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 2 cents/kWh year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Capacity Pricing - Capacity pricing is executed according to national and provincial regulations, with a subsidy level of 100 yuan/kW for 2025, leading to a capacity subsidy of 0.025 yuan/kWh based on the 2024 coal-fired utilization hours of 3950 hours [4]. - For 2026, the capacity subsidy is expected to rise to 0.042 yuan/kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6 cents/kWh [4]. Group 3: Profitability of Power Generation - The annual long-term contract for 1 million kW units in 2026 reflects the current operating costs of thermal power, with an estimated average profit of 2 cents/kWh for the year based on the average coal price in 2025 [5]. - More efficient 1 million kW ultra-supercritical units are expected to achieve profitability, while smaller units (300,000 kW and 600,000 kW) are likely to incur losses [5]. Group 4: Impact of Green Electricity - As of 2024, thermal power's installed capacity and generation account for 54.8% and 70.7% of Guangdong's total, respectively, with the influence of green electricity on overall supply and demand expected to increase [6]. - The mechanism electricity price in Guangdong is set at 0.36 yuan/kWh, while the 2026 long-term contract price for thermal power is 0.372 yuan/kWh, indicating that the long-term contract price is above the green electricity mechanism price [6][7]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The impact of green electricity on thermal power pricing is significant, particularly during peak solar output periods, which is expected to further lower spot electricity prices [7]. - The signed 2026 annual long-term contract price provides a profitability floor for Guangdong thermal power units, and without the price floor limitation, the bidding results could exceed the lower limit [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a steady upward trend in December, with major indices showing increased trading volume and a gradual recovery in market sentiment, indicating a shift from trading factors to fundamental factors dominating the market [4] - The total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 31.29 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, with a net financing of 176.67 billion yuan for the month, despite a 17.19% month-on-month decline in issuance [4] - The new public fund sales regulations released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 31, 2025, are expected to impact bank wealth management asset allocation behaviors, with public funds held amounting to 1.34 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025 [5] Group 2 - The Hong Kong insurance sector is anticipated to benefit from a strong "opening red" performance, driven by favorable sales in January and a positive investment return outlook due to a stable equity market [6] - The direct and indirect exports of steel, copper, and aluminum are projected to account for 24%, 17%, and 21% of domestic production in 2024, with expectations of improved export conditions in 2026 due to easing US-China trade tensions [6] - The annual long-term electricity price in Guangdong for 2026 is expected to reflect current operating costs of thermal power, with average profitability estimated at 0.02 yuan per kilowatt-hour based on average coal prices from 2025 [7] Group 3 - Tesla's Q4 2025 deliveries fell short of expectations, while NIO regained the top position among new energy vehicle manufacturers in December, with the continuation of the trade-in subsidy policy likely to boost sales in 2026 [8]

Group 1: Infrastructure Projects - The construction of the Tianfu Railway Station is progressing rapidly, with the installation of a 260-meter-long "phoenix feather" ceiling expected to be completed by the end of January [3][4] - The Tianfu Station, designed with a "nesting phoenix" concept, will serve as the starting point for the Chengdu-Dazhou-Wanzhou high-speed railway, which is projected to be operational by 2027 [4] - The Chengdu-Dazhou-Wanzhou railway's groundwork is nearly complete, with 98.87% of the earthworks finished and significant progress on bridge foundations and station construction [4] Group 2: Energy Projects - The Aba-Chengdu East 1000 kV UHV AC transmission project has achieved a significant milestone by completing the first segment on January 1, marking a strong start to the year [3] - This project, spanning 734.8 kilometers, aims to enhance the clean energy transmission capacity in the Sichuan region, with completion expected by the end of this year [3] Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The He Tian Chuang headquarters and optical display R&D manufacturing base project in Chengdu is in full swing, with completion expected by November 2023 and production to start in the first half of 2027 [3] - The project focuses on digital optical products and has already begun partial operations, with one-third of its production capacity relocated from Shenzhen to Chengdu [3] Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - The construction of the SF West Air Cargo Hub at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is underway, with an increase in workforce by 10% to meet the demands of the upcoming peak shopping season [3] - This hub, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, is designed to enhance the efficiency of air and ground logistics, expected to be operational by mid-January 2024 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the 500 kV power transmission and transformation project in Daxing'anling has officially commenced, marking a significant upgrade for the northern power grid of Heilongjiang Province and supporting the development of renewable energy in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The 500 kV transmission and transformation project is the core node of the backbone network extension in Heilongjiang Province, aimed at enhancing the northern power grid [1][3]. - The project includes the construction of one new 500 kV substation and corresponding transmission lines, which will traverse cold forest areas and permafrost regions [1][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The construction will face multiple challenges, including extreme cold weather, permafrost stability, and ecological protection [1][3]. - Solutions will need to be developed to address these cold-region construction difficulties [1][3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Once operational, the project is expected to significantly improve the reliability and quality of electricity supply in the Daxing'anling region, ensuring power for winter heating and daily life for local residents [1][3]. - The project will also enhance the potential for renewable energy consumption in the region, providing stable power support for economic development [1][3].

Core Insights - The Qinghai-Henan ±800 kV UHVDC project, known as the "Qingyu UHV Project," has been operational for five years as of December 30, 2025, and continues to supply green energy to Central China [1] - This project is the world's first UHV transmission corridor specifically designed for the delivery of clean energy, showcasing a significant innovation in China's use of UHV technology for large-scale renewable energy development [1] - The transmission line spans 1,587 kilometers across four provinces, connecting Qinghai's abundant wind and solar energy resources to the electricity demands of the Central Plains, facilitating efficient energy transfer and supporting green development [1] Group 1 - The Qingyu UHV Project is a major infrastructure that enhances the consumption of clean energy in Northwest China while meeting the growing electricity needs in Central China [1] - The project has been instrumental in powering international events like the Hangzhou Asian Games and Chengdu Universiade with green electricity from Qinghai [1] Group 2 - The Qingnan Converter Station, the project's sending end converter station, is the first and only UHVDC converter station in Qinghai, ensuring stable and efficient operation through regular maintenance and monitoring [2] - Over the past five years, the project has successfully addressed various technical challenges, including the integration of over 20 million kW of renewable energy capacity, by employing innovative technologies such as "renewable energy + phase-shifting devices" [2] - The project has established a robust talent development framework in Qinghai, focusing on the training of professionals in UHVDC technology and operations [2]

南方电网"西电东送"年送电量创新高 央视网消息：回顾过去的一年，我国交通、能源等方面的多个重大项目加速推进，取得亮眼成绩。 截至2025年底：全国铁路营业里程达16.5万公里 记者1月4日从国铁集团获悉，截至2025年底，全国铁路营业里程达16.5万公里，其中高铁超5万公里，我国建成世界规模最大、先进发达 的高速铁路网。"十四五"期间，全国铁路营业里程由14.63万公里增至16.5万公里，增长12.8%，高铁由3.79万公里增至5.04万公里，增长 32.98%。 与此同时，第二采油厂积极助力区域产业结构优化，开发建设以来，庆阳气田累计生产天然气20亿立方米，日产气量达到200万立方米， 有效保障了260万庆阳老区人民用气需求。 记者1月4日从南方电网了解到，2025年，南方电网西电东送年送电量达2616亿度，同比增长9.8%，创历史新高。在粤港澳大湾区，数字 经济、先进制造等产业蓬勃发展，用电需求刚性增长，带动广东成为全国首个用电负荷突破1.6亿千瓦的省份。 甘肃庆阳：长庆油田第二采油厂油气产量创新高 2025年，甘肃庆阳长庆油田第二采油厂油气产量突破400万吨，创历史新高。长庆油田勘探开发属于典型的低渗、 ...