隔夜美股道指、标普500指数均创新高，中概指数跌0.78%。昨日走高的港股三大指数低开，恒指跌 0.41%，国指跌0.3%，恒生科技指数跌0.28%。大型科技股多数走低，其中阿里巴巴跌2.45%，百度跌 1.7%，昨日领衔大市上涨的保险股、中资券商股走低。另外，半导体股、脑机接口概念股多数上涨。 (格隆汇) ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose, with IF up 1.7%, IH up 1.9%, IC up 2.42%, and IM up 1.65%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,633 lots, 6,465 lots, 27,205 lots, and 18,204 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC increased by 6,165 lots, 6,283 lots, and 6,560 lots respectively, while the total positions of IM decreased by 176 lots [1][2]. - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The Shanghai Composite Index set a record for the longest consecutive daily gains, closing up 1.5% at 4083.67 on January 6, reaching a new high in over 10 years and achieving 13 consecutive daily gains. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 1.59%. The market turnover expanded to 2.83 trillion yuan, a new high in over three months. The Hong Kong stock market rose unilaterally. The US three major stock indexes all closed up, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4790.7, up 1.55%. Among its futures contracts, IF2601 closed at 4795.4, up 1.70% with a basis of 4.71; IF2602 closed at 4784.8, up 1.70% with a basis of - 5.89; IF2603 closed at 4778, up 1.71% with a basis of - 12.69; IF2606 closed at 4734, up 1.75% with a basis of - 56.69 [1]. - **SSE 50 and Related Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3158.8, up 1.90%. Among its futures contracts, IH2601 closed at 3158.8, up 1.90% with a basis of 0.04; IH2602 closed at 3159.2, up 2.00% with a basis of 0.44; IH2603 closed at 3161.8, up 1.96% with a basis of 3.04; IH2606 closed at 3150.8, up 1.94% with a basis of - 7.96 [1]. - **CSI 500 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7814.1, up 2.13%. Among its futures contracts, IC2601 closed at 7836, up 2.42% with a basis of 21.86; IC2602 closed at 7805.6, up 2.56% with a basis of - 8.54; IC2603 closed at 7786.4, up 2.69% with a basis of - 27.74; IC2606 closed at 7613.4, up 2.84% with a basis of - 200.7 [1]. - **CSI 1000 and Related Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7864.9, up 1.43%. Among its futures contracts, IM2601 closed at 7875, up 1.65% with a basis of 10.1; IM2602 closed at 7813.6, up 1.73% with a basis of - 51.3; IM2603 closed at 7762.4, up 1.80% with a basis of - 102.5; IM2606 closed at 7536.2, up 1.95% with a basis of - 328.7 [1]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,633 lots, 6,465 lots, 27,205 lots, and 18,204 lots respectively, indicating increased trading enthusiasm [2]. - **Positions**: The total positions of IF, IH, and IC increased by 6,165 lots, 6,283 lots, and 6,560 lots respectively, while the total positions of IM decreased by 176 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: For IF2601, long - order changes were - 939 and short - order changes were - 669; for IF2603, long - order changes were 3334 and short - order changes were 3459; for IF2606, long - order changes were 1751 and short - order changes were 2227 [5]. - **IH Contracts**: For IH2601, long - order changes were 1197 and short - order changes were 1489; for IH2603, long - order changes were 2916 and short - order changes were 3397; for IH2606, long - order changes were 308 and short - order changes were 284 [5]. - **IC Contracts**: For IC2601, long - order changes were - 1235 and short - order changes were - 1981; for IC2602, long - order changes were 1394 and short - order changes were 1969; for IC2603, long - order changes were 1900 and short - order changes were 3413; for IC2606, long - order changes were 1418 and short - order changes were 2141 [5]. - **IM Contracts**: For IM2601, long - order changes were - 2606 and short - order changes were - 4008; for IM2602, long - order net changes were 134 and short - order net changes were - 1861; for IM2603, long - order changes were 1604 and short - order changes were 716 [5]. 3.4 Market Trends and Drivers - **A - share Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index set a record for the longest consecutive daily gains, closing up 1.5% at 4083.67 on January 6, reaching a new high in over 10 years. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 1.59%. The market turnover expanded to 2.83 trillion yuan, a new high in over three months [6]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hong Kong stock market rose unilaterally, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.38% at 26710.45, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 1.46%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.05%. Southbound capital had a net purchase of HK$2.879 billion [6]. - **US Stock Market**: The US three major stock indexes all closed up, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% at 49462.08, the S&P 500 up 0.62% at 6944.82, and the Nasdaq up 0.65% at 23547.17. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached new record closing highs [7]. - **A - share New Account Openings**: In December 2025, there were 2.5967 million new A - share accounts opened, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 31%. In 2025, a total of 27.4369 million new accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 9.75% [7]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China deployed key work for 2026, including flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, improving the structural monetary policy tool system, and strengthening financial market supervision [7].

隔夜美股道指、标普500指数均创新高，中概指数跌0.78%。昨日走高的港股三大指数低开，恒指跌 0.41%，国指跌0.3%，恒生科技指数跌0.28%。大型科技股多数走低，其中阿里巴巴跌2.45%，百度跌 1.7%，昨日领衔大市上涨的保险股、中资券商股走低。另外，半导体股、脑机接口概念股多数上涨。 (格隆汇) ...

资讯早班车-2026-01-07 一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 12 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 1、中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。完善结构性货币政策工具体系。完善金融 市场监测指标体系，探索开展金融市场宏观审慎管理。强化金融市场监管执 法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。加强对银行间债券市场、货币市场、 外汇市场、票据市场、黄金市场及有关衍生品的监管。强化虚拟货币监管， 持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with a focus on various sectors benefiting from technological advancements and policy support [1][2]. Industry Configuration Insights 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Demand expectations for thermal coal have weakened, leading to a price drop of 17% in December, while coking coal and coke prices increased by 4% and 8% respectively [10] - The supply-demand mismatch, combined with monetary easing, has resulted in significant price increases for precious metals and industrial metals, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising by 12%, 5%, and 2% respectively [12] - The coal industry is undergoing structural optimization due to new regulations aimed at improving clean coal utilization [10] 2) Industrial Products - Domestic demand is showing structural differentiation, with excavator sales increasing by 19% year-on-year in November, while automotive sales grew by 3% [4] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing strong growth, with wind and solar installations increasing by 59% and 33% respectively [4] 3) Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are facing challenges, with home appliance sales declining significantly; washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners saw year-on-year drops of 13%, 25%, and 25% respectively [5] - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a priority, with plans to enhance the supply of quality goods and services [5] 4) Technology - The AI application landscape is rapidly evolving, benefiting sectors like communication equipment, which is expected to gain from increased capital expenditure in North America [6] - The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 25% year-on-year in October [6] 5) Financial Sector - Banks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings, with insurance premiums growing by 7.6% year-on-year in November [7] - The stock market is stabilizing, with an average daily trading volume of 1.88 trillion yuan in December [7] 6) Real Estate - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a 27% year-on-year decline in sales area for commercial housing in December [7] - The central economic work conference is focused on stabilizing the real estate market and addressing local government debt risks [7]

来源：中信证券研究 China Themes 中国主题 2026年投资展望 展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持 韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复 的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。我们首推China Themes（中国主题）报告，聚合2026年大类资产展 望、宏观政策及产业投资看点，并梳理各行业重点公司，供投资者参考。 ▍大类资产：2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票 >债券。权益方面，我们预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，我们预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美 元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual insurance sector has shown strong performance in new policy premium growth, with leading companies like China Life, Ping An, Taikang, and Xinhua experiencing a growth rate of 40-60% in new individual insurance premiums as of January 1, 2026 [1][2] Market Environment - The continuous decline in bank deposit rates and the scarcity of medium to long-term deposit supply have made insurance products more attractive as low-risk savings alternatives, leading to a "deposit migration" effect [1] - A significant amount of fixed-term deposits will mature in 2026, further enhancing the appeal of insurance products [1] Product Structure - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the guaranteed interest rate in 2025 has led to a rapid rise in participating insurance products, which combine guaranteed returns with floating dividends [1] - From September to December 2025, participating insurance products accounted for 46% of newly launched life insurance, becoming a core driver of new policy growth [1] Policy Environment - The "reporting and operation integration" policy in the life insurance sector has curbed vicious price competition, shifting the focus of industry competition towards value-added services [1] - Regulatory adjustments have reduced the risk factors associated with equity investments for insurance companies, laying a foundation for improvements in the asset side of the industry [1] Future Outlook - The liability side of insurance companies is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong demand for participating and savings-type insurance continuing [1] - The asset side is anticipated to benefit from a slow bull market in equities, with institutions predicting that new equity allocations by insurance funds in A-shares could reach between 300 billion to 770 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - The industry is entering a phase of "dual resonance" development on both the liability and asset sides [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment landscape in 2025, highlighting a year of significant growth across various asset classes, with exceptions in digital currencies, government bonds, and oil. The author reflects on the unpredictability of market movements and the challenges in making accurate predictions in such a dynamic environment [4][5]. Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - The Chinese government aims to reduce local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion RMB to 7 trillion RMB by the end of 2025, indicating progress in debt management [6]. - China achieved a trade surplus of 1 trillion USD in 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years, where a quarterly surplus now matches the annual surplus of a decade ago [10]. - The prices of major commodities, excluding oil, have risen, alleviating the "no profit prosperity" situation for upstream and midstream manufacturing sectors [13]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The external environment has shifted dramatically, with the U.S. under Trump's administration becoming more aggressive in foreign policy, impacting China's focus on external challenges [7][8]. - The article notes a divergence in industrial strategies between China and the U.S., particularly in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with China rapidly advancing in domestic production capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: AI and Employment Concerns - A significant prediction is made regarding a potential backlash against AI in the U.S., driven by concerns over job losses and the concentration of wealth among tech oligarchs [22][23]. - The article references a report by Bernie Sanders, highlighting the potential for AI to displace nearly 100 million jobs in the U.S. over the next decade, raising ethical and economic concerns about the future of work [24][25]. Group 4: Private Equity and Credit Markets - The private equity and private credit markets in the U.S. have grown significantly, with 72% of non-financial corporate loans now sourced from private markets, indicating a shift away from traditional public financing [46][54]. - The article warns of potential bubbles forming in private credit markets, where valuation practices may obscure true risks, similar to conditions leading up to the 2008 financial crisis [66][76]. Group 5: Chinese Household Savings and Stock Market Dynamics - Chinese households have accumulated 48.7 trillion RMB in excess savings from 2022 to 2024, driven by a decline in real estate investment and low returns on traditional savings [81][82]. - There is a growing possibility that these savings will flow into the stock market, particularly through insurance companies, as they seek better returns amid low interest rates [88][90]. Group 6: Foreign Investment and Perceptions of China - The article highlights a disconnect between Western investors and the current realities of the Chinese market, with many foreign entities lacking a nuanced understanding of China's economic landscape [109][110]. - It suggests that a shift in perception may occur in 2026, potentially driven by improved economic indicators or a favorable shift in the global investment climate [119][120].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has set two historical records on January 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4083.67 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, and achieving a record 13 consecutive trading days of gains, breaking a 33-year-old record [1][3][19]. Market Performance - On January 6, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.75% [3][19]. - The market volume reached 2.83 trillion yuan, indicating strong buying enthusiasm among investors [2][17]. - The brain-computer interface sector saw a surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit, while the commercial aerospace sector also performed well, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [3][19]. Fund Inflows - The main driving force behind the current market rally is the continuous inflow of funds from insurance, financing, and foreign investments [2][18]. - As of January 5, 2026, the financing balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, a historical high, while insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds increased by 1.49 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [8][23]. - The market anticipates significant inflows from financial institutions due to the "opening red" effect, with a large amount of new premium funds available for market allocation [6][22]. Sector Performance - On January 6, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, and defense industries led the market [4][20]. - The Wenke Brain-Computer Interface Theme Index surged by 12.97%, while the Commercial Aerospace Theme Index rose by 9.49% over the first two trading days of 2026 [3][19]. Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend a balanced allocation strategy in response to the market's historic performance, focusing on sectors such as AI, resilient external demand, domestic consumption, and high dividend stocks [11][27]. - The "dumbbell strategy" is suggested, emphasizing technology growth sectors like AI and semiconductors for offensive positions, while defensive positions should focus on cyclical assets like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [27][29]. - Investors are advised to avoid short-term speculation and focus on long-term industry directions and value from dividend assets [29].