Group 1 - L'Oréal Group and Kering Group announced a long-term strategic partnership in the luxury beauty sector, with Kering selling its beauty business to L'Oréal for €4 billion (approximately 33.3 billion RMB) [1] - L'Oréal will acquire the Creed brand and gain exclusive rights to develop perfumes and beauty products for Kering's brands such as Gucci, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga for a period of 50 years [1][2] - The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, and both companies plan to explore further collaboration opportunities in luxury goods, health, and longevity through a 50-50 joint venture [1] Group 2 - Kering's beauty division, established in 2023, reported total sales of €32.3 million in 2024, a significant increase of 421% year-on-year, primarily driven by Creed [2] - Despite the growth in the beauty sector, Kering's overall sales declined by 16% year-on-year, and net profit fell by 46%, indicating financial pressure [2] - Kering's new CEO, Luca de Meo, is focused on improving the company's balance sheet, making the sale of the underperforming beauty business a necessary step [2][3] Group 3 - The partnership is expected to strengthen L'Oréal's leadership position in the luxury beauty market, leveraging the potential of brands like Gucci and Bottega Veneta [2] - Analysts believe that this collaboration will help Kering gain a larger market share in the luxury sector amid overall industry pressures [3]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.18%, S&P futures by 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.43% [1] - European stock indices show mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.76%, FTSE 100 up by 0.4%, CAC 40 down by 0.07%, and DAX 30 up by 1.21% [1] - WTI crude oil is down by 0.63% at $56.79 per barrel, and Brent crude is down by 0.64% at $60.90 per barrel [1] - Gold prices have increased by 2.33%, reaching $4311.5 per ounce [1] Economic Indicators - The ongoing US government shutdown and rising expectations for interest rate cuts are limiting the rebound of the US dollar [1] - Market focus is on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy and the ongoing negotiations between the two parties [1] - Bitcoin has surpassed $110,000, increasing by 1.31%, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and continued institutional inflows [1] Central Bank Policies - A member of the Bank of Japan, Takeda, indicated the need for further adjustments to monetary easing policies, highlighting the need to monitor inflation risks and prepare for potential rate hikes [1] - Expectations of a policy shift from the Bank of Japan may impact the yen's exchange rate and global liquidity, indirectly affecting US stock market capital flows [1] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) confirmed that the new generation Roadster will debut this year, expected to be the fastest production car globally, which may boost its stock price [1] - Kering Group (PPRUY.US) announced plans to sell its beauty business to L'Oréal for €4 billion, aiming to reduce debt and focus on its fashion core business, which is expected to optimize its asset structure [1] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is set to have its next-generation AI chips manufactured by Intel (INTC.US), emphasizing collaboration in AI hardware, which may provide short-term support for both companies' stock prices [1]

研究报告 Research Report 20 Oct 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W42 周度趋势解析：各板块持续轮动，股价回调提供买入机会 Week 42 Discretionary Trends: Sectors Continue Rotation as Price Pullbacks Present Buying Opportunities [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 牌表现分化 Week 38 Discretionary Trends: Macau Gambling Sector Stands Out, Domestic | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 耐克 | Outperform 科沃斯 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The new CEO of Kering Group has initiated a significant strategic shift by selling Kering Beauté to L'Oréal for €4 billion, marking a move towards focusing on core luxury goods while alleviating financial pressures [1][9]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Kering Group announced the sale of Kering Beauté to L'Oréal for €4 billion, with the transaction expected to complete in the first half of 2026 [1][3]. - The deal includes the acquisition of the high-end perfume brand Creed and a 50-year exclusive licensing agreement for producing beauty products for Kering's brands like Gucci and Balenciaga [3][10]. - Kering Beauté accounted for only 2% of Kering's total revenue, highlighting its limited impact on the overall business [4][9]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The sale reflects a broader trend in the luxury sector, where brands are shifting from a "brand-led" model to a "platform-led" approach, focusing on creativity and brand value while outsourcing operations to specialized groups [3][9]. - Kering's decision to divest non-core businesses is seen as a rational adjustment to enhance financial stability and focus on its primary luxury goods segment [9][10]. - The cash influx from the sale will help Kering address its growing debt, which reached €9.5 billion by mid-2023 [8][9]. Group 3: Market Context - The luxury goods sector has faced challenges, with Kering experiencing a 16% revenue decline to €7.587 billion and a 46% drop in net profit to €474 million in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - L'Oréal's acquisition aligns with its strategy to strengthen its position in the high-end beauty market, where it has been expanding its portfolio of luxury brands [10][13]. - The global perfume market is projected to grow, with estimates suggesting it will exceed $400 billion by 2025, indicating potential for future growth in this segment [13].

Group 1: Strategic Adjustments in the Fashion and Luxury Industry - Kering Group is reportedly planning to sell its beauty division to L'Oréal for approximately €4 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing debt structure and focusing on core assets [1][2] - EssilorLuxottica has experienced significant growth driven by the launch of smart glasses in collaboration with Meta, with Q3 revenue exceeding expectations at €6.87 billion, reflecting a 11.7% increase [5][6] Group 2: Regulatory Challenges and Market Dynamics - Gucci, Loewe, and Chloé have been fined over €157 million by the EU for price manipulation, highlighting increasing regulatory scrutiny in the luxury sector [8][9] - LVMH reported a surprising rebound in Q3 performance, with a 1% organic growth despite a 4% decline in total revenue, driven by a recovery in the Chinese market [13][14] Group 3: Company Performance and Growth Prospects - Brunello Cucinelli expects a 10% increase in total revenue for the year, with strong growth in the Chinese market contributing to this positive outlook [10] - Reebok's revenue for 2024 grew by 9.4% to $302.49 million, with net profit also increasing, driven by global business growth and improved licensing performance [4][5] Group 4: Leadership Changes and Brand Management - Véronique Nichanian, the creative director of Hermès menswear, has announced her departure after 37 years, marking a significant transition for the brand [14][15] - Giorgio Armani Group appointed Giuseppe Marsocci as CEO and Silvana Armani as Vice President, aiming to blend family legacy with professional expertise in leadership [16]

Macro Economy - The 138th Canton Fair concluded on October 19, with over 150,000 overseas buyers attending, representing a 6.3% increase compared to the previous session [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that nearly 70% of the autumn grain harvest is complete, with over 70% for medium rice, over 60% for corn, and over 80% for soybeans [5] - Wuhan's Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau announced measures to stabilize the housing market, including loan interest subsidies and group purchase discounts to stimulate housing demand [5] - The Jinsha River upstream Changbo Hydropower Station successfully completed its river diversion, expected to generate over 4.3 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy annually after completion in 2028 [5] Investment News - As of October 19, 2025, a total of 1,163 new funds have been established this year, surpassing the total of 1,135 for the entire year of 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market [7] - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan this year, reflecting significant interest in the Hong Kong stock market despite recent adjustments [7] - The number of newly registered private equity fund managers reached a record high of 10 in September, with most having extensive experience in the securities industry [7] - CITIC Securities reported that the main structural fundamental clue in A-shares is the overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises, with a focus on resource security and technological leadership [8] Company Movements - Wuliangye Group announced a notice to consumers, listing 46 unauthorized stores across various platforms including Douyin and JD.com [9] - Silan Microelectronics plans to invest 20 billion yuan in a joint project to build a 12-inch high-end analog integrated circuit chip manufacturing line [10] - UBTECH Robotics won a project for the procurement and installation of equipment for the "Guangxi Embodied Intelligent Data Collection and Testing Center," with an order amount of 126 million yuan [10] - FAW Jiefang signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Lingong Group to enhance collaboration in products, markets, and intelligent manufacturing [10] - Kering Group plans to sell its beauty division to L'Oréal for approximately 4 billion USD, equivalent to about 285 billion yuan [10]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is signaling a willingness to ease trade tensions by exempting more products from tariffs, which may impact the upcoming Supreme Court hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The only silver futures fund in the market, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures, has implemented purchase limits due to soaring silver prices, which have increased by 58.10% year-to-date as of October 17 [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary expressed concerns about the economic outlook during discussions at the IMF and World Bank meetings, emphasizing the importance of stable US-China relations for global economic development [2] Group 3 - A total of 1,163 new funds have been established this year, surpassing the total for 2024, indicating a strong recovery in the fund market, with stock funds accounting for 661 of these and a total issuance scale of 906.27 billion yuan [3] - The ETF market has seen a net inflow of 99.16 billion yuan since October, primarily driven by equity ETFs, which contributed over 92.46 billion yuan [3] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China has introduced monetary policy tools to support the capital market, injecting thousands of billions into the market and stabilizing A-share volatility [4] - Several companies have completed restructuring, with a focus on industrial integration, as seen in notable acquisitions in the automotive and optical communication sectors [4] Group 5 - Current structural fundamentals in A-shares are influenced by Chinese companies going abroad, with market dynamics affected by US-China relations [5] - The market is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors such as precious metals, finance, and technology [5] Group 6 - A private equity product managed by Wu Yuefeng has shown significant recovery, nearing breakeven, while prominent investors express optimism about the A-share market [6] Group 7 - Companies like Silan Microelectronics and China Life are projecting significant profit growth, with China Life expecting a 50%-70% increase in net profit [7] Group 8 - Silver prices have surged nearly 70% this year, leading to shortages in local markets, with prices for silver bars increasing from over 8,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan [8] - Banks are preparing for a decisive fourth quarter, with some smaller banks initiating early promotional activities for the next year [8] Group 9 - The China Shipowners' Association has signed cooperation agreements with major international shipping organizations, marking a new phase in the collaboration of China's shipping industry [9] Group 10 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a financial system that aligns with the country's technological development stage [10] Group 11 - Kering Group plans to sell its beauty division to L'Oréal for approximately 4 billion USD, which includes ownership of the Creed perfume brand [11] Group 12 - Australian Prime Minister is expected to discuss rare earth supply chains with US President Trump [12] Group 13 - South Korean investors are increasingly betting on leveraged VIX investments to hedge against their US stock holdings [13] Group 14 - There is a significant performance disparity among "fixed income +" products, with some achieving over 20% returns while others have negative returns [14] Group 15 - International gold prices have surged, leading to increased investment in gold ETFs, driven by geopolitical risks and liquidity factors [15]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry shows signs of recovery, with LVMH reporting a 1% organic revenue growth in Q3 2025, ending two consecutive quarters of decline and exceeding analysts' expectations of zero growth [2][4][9]. Financial Performance - LVMH's total revenue for Q3 2025 decreased by 4% year-on-year to €18.28 billion, but the organic growth of 1% marks the first sales rebound of the year [4][11]. - For the first nine months of 2025, total revenue fell by 4% to €58.09 billion, with an organic decline of 2% [4][9]. Segment Performance - The fashion and leather goods segment saw a smaller decline of 2% year-on-year, with revenue at €8.497 billion, better than the expected 3.5% drop [8]. - The watches and jewelry segment grew by 2% to €2.319 billion, while perfumes and cosmetics also increased by 2% to €1.958 billion [8]. - The selective retailing segment performed strongly, with a revenue increase of 7% to €3.992 billion [8]. Regional Performance - In terms of regional performance, Europe experienced a 2% organic revenue decline, primarily due to a strong euro and reduced tourist spending [8]. - The U.S. market saw a 3% revenue growth, while the Asia-Pacific market (excluding Japan) also grew by 2% [8]. - Notably, the Chinese market returned to positive growth, achieving mid to high single-digit growth, reversing the trend of declining overseas consumption [9]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, LVMH's stock surged by 12.22% to €599 per share, with its market capitalization approaching €300 billion [11]. - Other luxury brands, including Richemont, Hermès, and Prada, also saw significant stock price increases, collectively adding nearly $70 billion in market value [11].

Core Insights - LVMH Group shows signs of performance stabilization with a 1% organic growth rate in Q3, despite challenges in the European market due to currency fluctuations [1][9] Financial Performance - In Q3, LVMH reported revenue of €18.28 billion, reflecting a 4% decline when accounting for a 5% negative currency impact [2] - The fashion and leather goods segment continued its decline, down 2% year-on-year, marking three consecutive quarters of decrease, although the decline rate has narrowed [2] - Wine and spirits revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, driven by restocking in the U.S. market and increased sales of rosé wine [2] - Other segments such as perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelry, and selective retailing saw revenue increases of 2%, 2%, and 7% respectively [2] Market Dynamics - The CFO highlighted strong local demand in key markets, particularly in the fashion and leather goods sector, with positive growth in mainland China and improvements in the U.S. market [4] - For the first nine months, LVMH achieved total revenue of €58.09 billion, with fashion and leather goods contributing €27.61 billion, approximately 47.5% of total revenue [5] - In terms of regional performance, the U.S. market saw a 3% year-on-year revenue increase, while Europe and Japan experienced declines of 2% and 13% respectively; Asia (excluding Japan) grew by 2% [6] China Market Insights - The company noted a recovery in the Chinese market, with local consumption showing mid-to-high single-digit positive growth, although overall consumer performance remains close to stable with low single-digit negative growth [9] - Despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment, demand in China is encouraging, although overseas spending by Chinese tourists is still experiencing double-digit declines [9] - The CFO indicated that the fourth quarter may present greater challenges due to base effects and anticipated stronger negative impacts from currency fluctuations compared to Q3 [9]

Core Points - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping by 4.05% to close at 5760 points, the Hang Seng Index falling by 2.48% to 25247 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 2.67%, barely holding above the 9000-point mark [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices in Hong Kong reached recent adjustment lows due to a collective downturn in large technology stocks, major financial stocks (banks, insurance, securities), and state-owned enterprises [1][3] - Notable declines included Meituan and Alibaba, both dropping over 4%, while Xinhua Insurance fell by 7.16%, GF Securities by nearly 7%, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by 1.2% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Various sectors faced declines, including semiconductor stocks, Apple-related stocks, military industry stocks, automotive stocks, nuclear power stocks, lithium battery stocks, high-speed rail infrastructure stocks, coal stocks, and domestic real estate stocks [3] - Conversely, retail stocks and gold and silver jewelry stocks saw gains, with Chow Tai Fook rising by 5% after announcing its third price increase of the year, and Lao Pu Gold increasing by over 3% [3] Group 3: Notable Stock Movements - Biopharmaceutical stocks showed strength, with Yaojie Ankang surging over 22% after a previous increase of over 46%, and Xuan Zhu Biotechnology reaching a new high with a 16.9% rise on its third day of listing [3]