以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ，作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里，追求自由与思想。 2025年中国经济实现"5%左右"的增速目标是大概率事件，但从全年走势来看，一季度经济"开门 红"，同比增长5.4%；二季度保持较强韧性，同比增长5.2%；下半年压力增大，三季度增速放缓， 四季度或回落至5%以下。因此宏观政策有必要进一步加码发力，促进经济回升向好。 01 如何看待当前经济形势？ （一）三季度经济承压主因前期支撑因素回落，但也有积极因素显现 去年四季度以来，中国经济主要受两大因素支撑：一是出口超预期强劲，关税战风险下的抢出口和抢 转口行为，以及中国产业链供应链的强大国际竞争力，带动中国出口保持韧性；二是宏观政策加码发 力，消费品以旧换新政策带动消费明显回升，大规模设备更新政策带动制造业投资增速保持高位，财 政靠前发力带动基建投资保持较高增速。今年上半年，出口金额、社零消费、制造业投资、广义基建 投资同比分别增长5.9%、5.0%、7.5%和8.9%，从而实现经济同比增长5.3%。 （二）下阶段压力增大，四季度经济增速或回落至5%以下 下阶段外部环境不稳定不确定因素较多，我国 ...

合肥城建公告称，公司全资子公司合肥徽琥置业有限公司于2025年8月29日通过竞拍方式取得合肥市包 河区BH202522号和BH202523号地块。 ...

新京报贝壳财经讯 9月16日，杭州成功出让2宗涉宅用地，分别位于拱墅区康桥单元、钱塘区元成单 元，总建设用地面积7.28万平方米，总规划建筑面积14.60万平方米，总起始价约18.43亿元。最终，两 地块均溢价成交，总成交价21.23亿元。 其中，康桥单元GS120103-09地块编号杭政储出[2025]105号，地块四至为东至顾扬路，南至规划朱家坝 路，西至规划道路，北至电厂河绿化；用地性质为住宅用地，总用地面积34165平方米，规划建筑面积 64913.5平方米，容积率1.9，起始价10.60亿元，起始楼面价16331元/平方米。经过28轮竞价，最终杭州 越珑房地产开发有限公司（越秀）以总价13.30亿元竞得地块，成交楼面价20490元/平方米，溢价率 25.47%。 编辑 寇德娜 校对 王心 另一宗元成单元QT040101-01地块编号杭政储出[2025]106号，地块四至为东至海达北路规划绿化，南至 金乔街，西至规划道路，北至新南路；用地性质为住宅用地，总用地面积38629平方米，规划建筑面积 81120.9平方米，容积率2.1，起始价7.83亿元，起始楼面价9650元/平方米。经过3轮竞价，最终杭州 ...

Market Overview - In the week of September 8-14, 2025, the Kunming real estate market experienced a decline in both transaction volume and prices, with the Xicheng District seeing a 24% increase in sales of low-priced or newly regulated properties, while other districts faced declines [1] - A total of approximately 43,800 square meters were supplied to the market, representing a 17% increase week-on-week, while transactions totaled about 61,400 square meters, reflecting a 15% decrease [1] - The average transaction price was approximately 11,071 yuan per square meter, down 5% from the previous week [1] Key Projects - The Zhuyou·Hanlinfu project led sales with a weekly sales amount of about 60 million yuan, selling 77 units at an average price of approximately 6,139 yuan per square meter [1] - The Huafa Shuxiang Yunhai project, located in the Ma Street West area, also performed well, with sales of 21 units and an average price of about 10,575 yuan per square meter [1] - The Zhongtonglian Dashushan project ranked second with sales of 27 units and an average price of approximately 10,600 yuan per square meter [1] New Developments - The Chenggong New City project, a new high-end residential development, has seen strong sales momentum since its market entry, with the first building topping out in mid-June [2] - The Longhu Tianjing and Poly Tianjun projects, positioned as high-end improvements, also reported significant sales, with average prices of approximately 16,164 yuan per square meter and 18,654 yuan per square meter, respectively [2] Land and Development Updates - The Guandu Guotou Baiyuefu project, previously the Hengda Jiulongwan site, sold 13 units at an average price of about 14,015 yuan per square meter, indicating a revival of the previously stalled land [5] - No new land was supplied or sold in Kunming's main urban area during the week, but three new projects from Bangtai continued to be promoted [5] - The auction of a 40% stake in the Cuihu Yunding project attracted seven bidders, ultimately selling at a 50-fold premium, indicating strong interest in the area [8] Future Prospects - The idle land of the Cuihu Yunding Phase II project is expected to restart development, highlighting the scarcity value of land around Cuihu [8] - The A2 plot of the Cuihu Yunding project, which has been idle, is anticipated to undergo significant planning adjustments under new residential regulations, making its future product offerings highly anticipated [9]

Market Performance - On September 16, the real estate development sector rose by 1.27% compared to the previous trading day, with Xiangjiang Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xiangjiang Holdings (600162) closed at 2.38, with a gain of 10.19% and a trading volume of 744,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 177 million [1] - Shoukai Co. (600376) closed at 6.67, up 10.07%, with a trading volume of 2,225,800 shares, totaling 144.9 million [1] - Rongsheng Development (002146) closed at 2.12, increasing by 9.84%, with a trading volume of 8,621,000 shares, amounting to 1.805 billion [1] - Other notable performers include Jintou Chengkai (600322) with a 7.14% increase, and Wolong New Energy (600173) with a 6.86% increase [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate development sector experienced a net outflow of 381 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 674 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that major stocks like Xiangjiang Holdings and Shoukai Co. had significant net outflows from institutional and speculative funds [3]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on September 16, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down by 0.03%, reaching a high of 26,601.59 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.56% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks exhibited varied performance, with Meituan up by 3%, NetEase by 1.25%, while JD.com fell over 1% and Alibaba and Kuaishou saw slight declines [2][4]. - The photovoltaic industry saw significant price increases across multiple segments, leading to active trading in solar stocks, with Fuyao Glass rising by 5% [2][6]. - The tourism and sightseeing sector experienced collective gains, with Hong Kong Travel up by 4.4%, driven by the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2][9]. - Airline stocks surged, with China National Airlines and China Eastern Airlines both rising over 4%, supported by a Goldman Sachs report indicating potential improvements in domestic ticket prices starting in September [2][7]. Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology sector faced significant declines, with Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine dropping over 53%, and other companies like Singlomics and CStone Pharmaceuticals also experiencing losses [3][12][13]. Real Estate Sector - The domestic real estate sector continued to decline, with R&F Properties falling by 8% and other major developers like Sunac China and Shimao Group also reporting losses [3][14][15]. Automotive and Lithium Battery Sectors - The automotive sector saw gains, with Geely Automobile up over 3%, and other companies like Li Auto and BYD also rising [10][11]. - The lithium battery sector remained active, with companies like Hongqiao Group and CATL showing positive performance, as analysts continue to recommend the energy storage sector [10][11]. Investment Insights - The AI sector remains a key focus for investors, with strong growth in cloud services driven by AI demand, as indicated by recent reports from domestic cloud providers [22].

云南城投置业公告2022年重大资产重组进展。公司以公开挂牌方式出售多家子公司股权，交易构成关联 交易。2022年4 - 12月，公司推进各项审议、问询回复等工作，最终确定标的资产受让方。截至目前， 已收回昆明城海等11家标的公司全部股权款和债权款，约44.46亿元，收回东方柏丰股权款2.5亿元、债 权款5.06亿元，10家公司完成工商变更登记。台州商业等4家公司暂未完成工商变更，海南天利发展、 宁波奉化未完成股权交割。公司声明已转移台州商业、杭州西溪股权管理权，将继续推进后续工作，并 提醒投资者关注指定媒体信息及投资风险。 ...

云南城投置业股份有限公司发布重大资产重组进展公告。公司及下属子公司出售多家公司股权，构成关 联交易。2020 年 4 月起相关议案陆续审议通过，公司回应上交所审核意见。截至目前，重大资产出售 标的公司已全部完成股权交割，平阳银泰等 9 家公司完成工商变更登记，宁波银泰、北京房开 2 家暂未 完成，因其他股东等原因所致。公司已转移股权管理权，不再是这两家公司控股股东。公司将推进后续 工作，按规定披露信息，提醒投资者注意风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Holdings announced a guarantee progress update, indicating its subsidiary Nanshan Real Estate has signed a guarantee contract with Zhongkai Finance for a project financing loan of up to 430 million yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Details - The guarantee provided is for the financing loan balance of its wholly-owned subsidiary Changsha Tianchi, which has a debt-to-asset ratio of 91.72% as of August 31 [1] - The guarantee falls within the approved quota of 5.8 billion yuan from the 2024 annual general meeting, leaving a remaining quota of 3.93 billion yuan after this usage [1] - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to 32.278 billion yuan, which represents 88.5% of the audited net assets attributable to shareholders for 2024, totaling 36.485 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Guarantee Status - The guarantees to entities outside the consolidated financial statements total 3.768 billion yuan, accounting for 42.59% of the total guarantees [1] - There are no overdue or adverse guarantee situations reported [1]

Group 1: Market Recovery - The real estate sector is experiencing a recovery with leading companies like Vanke A showing significant stock performance, achieving an 8-day consecutive rise with a total increase of 7.81%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 2.55% during the same period [1] - Other major players such as China Vanke, Gemdale, and Poly Developments have also seen stock price increases of 12.66%, 3.37%, and 6.73% respectively over the past 8 trading days, all surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - More than 28 companies in the real estate development sector have recorded a cumulative stock price increase of over 10% since September, accounting for more than 30% of the sector [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Vanke A reported a revenue of 105.32 billion yuan and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% and 21.3% respectively [1] - The company has successfully repaid 24.39 billion yuan of public debt by the end of August and has no foreign public debt due before 2027 [1] Group 3: Debt Restructuring - As of August 2025, 20 domestic real estate companies have received approval for debt restructuring, with a total debt restructuring scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - Vanke A, Country Garden, and Sunac China have seen their debt levels decrease by more than 10% compared to the end of June 2024 [2] Group 4: Policy Support - Various cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, have introduced new policies since late August to stimulate housing consumption, contributing to the recovery of leading real estate companies' stock prices [2] - Approximately 190 cities have implemented nearly 440 real estate optimization policies this year [2] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The real estate market in first-tier cities is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new home prices, attributed to ongoing policy support [3] - The real estate brokerage industry's sentiment index rose by 2.8 to 47.26 in August, marking the largest single-month increase of the year [3]