Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates resilience and strong performance in a challenging industry environment, achieving significant revenue and profit growth despite market pressures [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, up 24.19% year-on-year [1][4]. - The overall gross margin improved by 131 basis points to 34.03%, and operating cash flow reached 21.74 billion yuan, an increase of 18.86% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is preparing for industry recovery by focusing on maintaining channel and supply chain health, enhancing profitability, and promoting high-quality business development [1][4]. - The company has successfully adjusted its strategies in response to market challenges, leading to improved channel health and stable sales during peak seasons [4][5]. Business Segments - The liquid milk and ice cream businesses remain the company's primary revenue drivers, with liquid milk revenue reaching 75.00 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the top position in the industry [6]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved revenue of 29.68 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [8]. - The company is also expanding into the health food sector, with strong growth in non-dairy products such as bottled water and beef [10]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the industry's recovery, noting positive signals from upstream and downstream sectors and supportive government policies aimed at boosting consumption and health [13][14]. - The company anticipates that the restructuring of the dairy value chain will enhance operational efficiency and profitability in the upcoming strategic cycle [14].

公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [天Ta润bl乳e_业Sto(c6k0A0n4d1Ra9n)k] | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | 赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 淘汰牛只扰动利润，业绩有望先抑后扬 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 4 日 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年一季报。25Q1，公司实现营业收入 6.25 亿元，同 比-2.50%；归母净利润-7330 万元，同比-1713.36%；实现扣非归母净利润 -103 万元，同比-104.54%。 点评： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Author] 乳业消费乏力，Q1 收入略降。行业角度看，乳制品 Q1 仍然呈现供给 端过剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Dairy's performance is expected to experience a rebound after a temporary decline due to the culling of cattle, leading to a "buy" rating from the research report by Xinda Securities [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 625 million yuan, a decrease of 2.50% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 73.3 million yuan, down 1713.36% year-on-year; and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was a loss of 103,000 yuan, down 104.54% year-on-year [2][3]. Industry Context - The dairy industry is facing weak consumption, with Q1 showing an oversupply on the supply side and weak demand. The national cattle inventory decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, and dairy product output fell by 2.4% year-on-year [3]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from various products in Q1 included 347 million yuan from ambient dairy products (down 4.38% year-on-year), 239 million yuan from chilled dairy products (down 0.64% year-on-year), and 17.32 million yuan from livestock products (down 44.27% year-on-year). Revenue from Xinjiang and outside Xinjiang was 355 million yuan and 251 million yuan, respectively, down 4.40% and 5.87% year-on-year [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q1 was 14.63%, a decrease of 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to short-term promotions. The overall expense ratio remained stable, with sales expenses up 1.15 percentage points and management expenses up 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Strategic Response - In response to the oversupply and intensified market competition, the company is exploring new sales channels and optimizing cattle structure to improve productivity. The total cattle inventory at the end of Q1 was 56,300 heads, a reduction of over 8,500 heads from the end of 2024, with a per-cow output of 11.25 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company expects a significant reduction in cattle culling, leading to improved performance. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.24 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 18X, and 13X [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's trading department has noted an increase in attention and trading activity in the Chinese dairy industry, influenced by government policies on infant formula and the industry's strong domestic characteristics [1] - Despite the anticipated poor performance in 2024, Yili's (600887.SH) 2025 performance guidance is reassuring, with sales, reported earnings, and recurring earnings expected to grow by 3.4%, 34%, and 80% year-on-year respectively [1] - The new target price for Yili is set at 35 RMB, up from 30 RMB, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, reaffirming it as the preferred stock in the Chinese dairy sector [1] Group 2 - Yili anticipates a reversal of the surplus in raw milk supply in the second half of 2025 due to reduced dairy farm capacity, rising beef prices accelerating farm closures, and ongoing trade wars pushing up feed costs [2] - This situation is viewed positively for the entire industry, leading to upgraded ratings for Mengniu (02319) and Feihe (06186) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the unexpected financial performance of Knight Dairy (832786.BJ) in 2024, with a revenue increase of only 3.22% to 1.297 billion yuan, while net profit turned into a loss of 7.6951 million yuan compared to a profit of 93.85 million yuan in 2023 [2] - The decline in fresh milk prices is identified as a critical factor impacting Knight Dairy's profitability, with domestic milk prices dropping nearly 40% over 40 months, leading to an average price of 3.32 yuan/kg in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.42% [2] - Knight Dairy's heavy reliance on a single major customer, Mengniu, for over 90% of its fresh milk sales limits its bargaining power, resulting in a challenging situation where both raising cattle and selling cattle are unprofitable [2] Group 2 - The company faces challenges due to its single business structure, with over 40% of its sugar business sales dependent on a single customer, Zhejiang Hangshishan Industrial [3] - Although Knight Dairy has attempted to diversify by expanding into milk powder and long-life sterilized milk, these segments saw revenue growth of 40% and 85% respectively in 2024, but their gross margins remain below 10%, making them unlikely to become significant growth drivers in the short term [3] - Knight Dairy has been criticized by the Beijing Stock Exchange for not timely revising its earnings forecast, raising concerns about its financial transparency [3]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group reported a robust financial performance for 2024, with total revenue reaching 115.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 11.54 billion yuan, marking a 12.2% increase, while the first quarter of 2025 showed continued growth in revenue and net profit [2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili achieved total revenue of 1157.80 billion yuan, with a net profit of 115.39 billion yuan after excluding goodwill impairment, reflecting a growth of 12.2% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 330.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 46.29 billion yuan, up 24.19% [2] - The gross profit margin improved by 131% to 34.03% in 2024, with operating cash flow net amount increasing by 18.86% to 21.74 billion yuan [2] Business Segmentation - Yili's business matrix is structured into three tiers: liquid milk and cold drinks, milk powder and cheese, and health drinks and overseas markets [3] - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 750.03 billion yuan, maintaining the highest market share in ambient white milk, although it faced a 19.61% decline in revenue year-on-year [3] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue of 296.75 billion yuan, a growth of 7.53%, driven by strong performance in high-end products [3] - The overseas business, while showing growth in cold drinks and infant formula, still represents less than 10% of total revenue [3] Strategic Focus - For 2025, Yili plans to achieve total revenue of 1190 billion yuan and a profit of 12.6 billion yuan, representing increases of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively compared to 2024 [4] - The strategic focus for 2025 will be on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products [4] Challenges Ahead - The company faces challenges such as declining newborn numbers affecting infant formula demand and the need to cater to the aging population's nutritional needs [5] - Cost pressures from excess raw milk supply and competition from brands like Feihe and Junlebao may dilute Yili's market share [5] - Geopolitical and tariff risks could hinder the progress of Yili's globalization efforts [5]

攻守兼备的战略节奏，让伊利股份得以在行业供需矛盾累积时快速应对，及时梳理渠道新鲜度和价盘管控，于今年轻 装上阵。 而在牧场退出意愿增加，上游调整周期进入尾声，终端一季度又取得开门红的基础上，伊利亦表达了"不会过度乐 观"的谨慎态度。 不过，乳业供需即将在三季度阶段性平衡的预期，得以缓解了利润端的持续压力。此外，包括婴配粉企稳、成人营养 品抢占品类红利，B端定制品和海外区域市场步入收获期的信号，亦给了行业在收入端寻找增量的信心。 上游牧场退出意愿抬升，预计三季度双节乳业供需实现阶段性平衡 今日，伊利股份举办2024年及2025年一季报业绩说明会。本次业绩会上，管理层阐述了本轮上游周期的成因及未来走 势展望。 据伊利管理层回顾，此次原奶供需矛盾起源于2021年下半年，彼时公众对乳制品需求较大，叠加行业在更好的技术、 充足资金带动下，牛群数量、泌乳牛单产都得以快速提升，加速上游牧场整合。 "正常情况下，需求和供给同时上升，奶源实际表现为非常紧平衡、甚至缺奶的状态。但从2022年开始，突然间的消 费力受损，叠加规模化牧场占比却持续提升，抗风险能力变强。导致上游产量没来得及根据需求下降而收缩，让供需 矛盾越来越突出。" ...

Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.19% growth [1] - The company continues to lead the Asian dairy industry in scale and quality, with significant growth in its milk powder business [1] Business Segments - The liquid milk segment remains the core competitive advantage, generating revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the largest market share in the industry [2] - The company’s cold drink business achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan in 2024, reinforcing its position as the national leader in the cold drink sector for 30 consecutive years [2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment reached a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase, with the adult milk powder market share rising to 24% [3][6] Health and Innovation - The company is expanding into the health food sector, with other product revenues growing by 13.75% in 2024, particularly in the ready-to-drink tea market [4] - The adult milk powder market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% over the past three years, with the 50+ age group contributing 62% of sales [5] - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, with a 2.33% increase in R&D expenses in 2024, leading to breakthroughs in functional dairy products [9] Strategic Collaborations and Future Outlook - In 2025, the company partnered with Tongrentang to develop a series of functional products, marking a strategic move towards becoming a comprehensive health food enterprise [7] - The company is addressing structural issues in the cheese industry by enhancing its deep processing capabilities and expanding its product offerings [8] - The company’s focus on digital transformation and AI applications aims to improve operational efficiency and market responsiveness [10][11] Shareholder Value - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, totaling 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4% [12] - The company has a history of significant shareholder returns, with cumulative dividends reaching 50.8 billion yuan since its market debut [12] - The current valuation is at a ten-year low, with a consistent dividend rate above 70% over the past five years, indicating strong investment potential [12] Industry Position and Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned in the dairy industry, with substantial growth opportunities in both liquid milk and milk powder markets [13] - The improvement in the upstream supply-demand balance is expected to enhance profitability, even with stable terminal demand [13] - The company is poised to lead the high-quality development of the Chinese dairy industry, leveraging its robust performance and innovative capabilities [14]

国内头部乳企正在把突围的方向转向下沉市场和产品功能化转型。 在经历了2024年的整体降速之后，2025年一季度乳制品行业终于有了回暖的迹象。在今日举行的业绩说明会上，伊利股份（600887.SH）董事长兼总裁潘刚 表示，乳制品行业最艰难的时刻已经过去，当前市场仍处于弱复苏状态。第一财经记者了解到，在连续两年增速下滑后，国内头部乳企正将突围的方向转向 下沉市场和产品功能化转型。 乳业最难时刻已过去 根据已公布的2024年财报显示，乳业前三甲企业伊利股份、蒙牛乳业（02319.HK）、光明乳业（600597.SH）全年营收分别为1158亿元、886.7亿元和242.8 亿元，收入规模普遍出现8%-10%的同比下降。 从单季表现看，业绩波动主要集中在2024年的二、三季度，自第四季度起，各乳企的营收跌幅逐步收窄，到2025年第一季度已有明显改善。 潘刚在业绩会上表示，这一变化主要与公司2024年二季度启动的战略调整有关。2024年初，由于供需矛盾积累，伊利管理层注意到经销商库存在增加，随即 采取了促动销、去库存等系列措施，到第三季度时市场已经逐步恢复，到2025年春节市场已回归健康状态。 财报显示，伊利2025年一 ...