音烙橡胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/09 P 不 As 占 商品 POY 1 石脑油日 PX CFR PTA内盘现 仓单+有 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 50D/4 TA基美 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 台湾 न्ह 解价差 K 荷 负荷 8F Hill 2025/1 5095 6545 60.9 536 893 90.35 357.0 347 -194 78.2 78.1 106756 -48 0.40 2/31 2026/0 61.8 523 884 5030 ୧୧୦୧ 69.80 361.0 330 -165 80.0 78.1 104266 -50 0.45 1/05 图H 2026/0 60.7 192 0.50 534 903 5080 6530 89.32 369.0 283 80.0 78.1 102028 -45 1/06 2026/0 60.0 533 900 5100 93.24 367.0 313 100768 ୧୧୧୧ -191 80.0 78.1 -40 0.50 1/07 2026/0 l 图H 62.0 541 93.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on customer and market demand, emphasizing differentiated, functional, and sustainable development in its operations [1] Group 1: Product Development - The company is committed to developing and promoting differentiated products such as Nylon 66, recycled nylon, and functional nylon to enhance product competitiveness [1] - Nylon 66 is a key business segment for the company, offering superior performance compared to conventional nylon materials, resulting in higher product added value, price, and gross margin [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - The sales volume of Nylon 66 has been continuously increasing in recent years, contributing positively to the company's operating performance [1] Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - The company's recycled nylon aligns with policy encouragement and the sustainable development concepts of downstream brands, achieving large-scale and efficient recycling of nylon fibers [1] - The company has established deep collaborations with numerous domestic and international brands in the sustainable development space [1]

Market Overview - On January 7, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a decent trading atmosphere in the spot market, primarily driven by traders, and a few polyester factories replenishing stock, leading to a strong spot basis [1] - The trading range for PTA was between 5020 and 5160, with transactions occurring at a basis of 40 near the end of January [1] Profit Analysis - As of January 7, the PTA spot processing fee was around 331 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 were 364 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply: As of January 4, Dushan Energy restarted 2.5 million tons, Zhongtai restarted 1.2 million tons but operated at low capacity, and Weilian Chemical increased its output, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 78.1% [1] - Demand: As of January 4, polyester operating rates were around 90.8%, with individual variations in production and sales. Factory inventory levels were relatively low, but a slight increase in inventory was noted due to insufficient production and sales [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of PTA processing fees, uncertainties regarding PTA plant maintenance in Q1 have increased, and some supply has returned while downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally around the Spring Festival [1] - The expectation for PTA supply and demand is weakening in January, with limited self-driven factors for PTA, primarily following raw material fluctuations. The short-term strategy for PTA is to oscillate between 5000 and 5200, while maintaining a low long position in the mid-term [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, particularly new materials and lithium battery materials, highlighting the potential for growth and cyclical recovery in the sector [1][3][8]. Core Companies and Assets - Key companies mentioned include Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from capacity expansion and favorable pricing trends [1][2][8]. - Wanhua Chemical has a global advantage in MDI and TDI products, while Hualu Hengsheng has cost advantages across multiple products [6][8]. Core Themes and Strategies - The annual strategy is divided into three main lines: 1. **Growth Line**: Focuses on demand-driven sectors such as AI, semiconductor materials, and lithium battery materials [3]. 2. **Cyclical Growth**: Concentrates on midstream core assets with improving supply-demand dynamics [3][8]. 3. **Value Line**: Emphasizes resource products, particularly phosphates and potash [4][10]. Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery materials sector is highlighted, with specific attention to lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, and separators, which are showing upward pricing trends [5][12]. - Phosphate demand from lithium iron phosphate is significant, accounting for approximately 12% of phosphate demand, supporting price increases [5]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The chemical industry has seen strong performance recently, driven by low profitability, low valuations, and active reallocation of institutional capital [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit new capacity, improving supply-demand relationships, although the fundamental dynamics still depend on actual supply and demand [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Expectations - The organic silicon industry is projected to have limited new capacity in 2026, with a historical compound growth rate of 8-10% over the past 7-8 years, indicating a positive outlook [9][24]. - Key products such as bottles, glyphosate, and PTA are currently in favorable supply-demand conditions, benefiting from the anti-involution policy [10][25]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended investments include leading companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as products benefiting from the new energy boom, such as electronic-grade DMC and oxalic acid [8][27]. - Specific attention is drawn to sectors with high operating rates and favorable supply-demand balances, including spandex, polyester, and organic silicon [19][22][23]. Resource Products - Phosphate and potash companies are highlighted for their growth potential, with phosphate demand expected to outperform potash [11][26]. - Companies involved in phosphate production are projected to see significant volume growth, with valuations around 10-15 times earnings [11]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is positioned for growth, driven by strategic investments in core assets and favorable market dynamics. The focus on midstream assets and resource products presents significant investment opportunities moving forward [1][8][27].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For PTA, the supply side shows that some devices have restarted and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. The polyester load has recovered, the inventory has slightly decreased, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. However, after the price of PX has strengthened significantly, on one hand, the profit of downstream filaments has declined significantly, and the possibility of accelerated production cuts has increased. On the other hand, the expansion of PXN has led to the recovery of domestic and overseas loads. Although the long - term pattern has not been completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has increased, and the short - term upward space may be limited, waiting for downstream price passing [1]. - For MEG, the domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, the arrival at the port is stable, the port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak. The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level. In the future, the domestic supply will increase steadily, overseas maintenance will increase month - on - month, the overall inventory accumulation will continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under the continuous new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month. Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low. Considering that the absolute inventory is not high, the space for further weakening is limited, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup lump has been stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have shown certain fluctuations, but no clear overall trend conclusion is given in the report [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply side: Some devices in the PTA section have restarted, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. For example, Dushan's 2.5 million - ton device has restarted, and Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device has increased its load [1]. - Demand side: The polyester load has recovered, and the inventory has slightly decreased [1]. - Price and cost: The basis has strengthened, and the spot processing fee has improved. The domestic operating rate of PX has increased, and overseas has also slightly increased the load. The PXN has shrunk month - on - month, and the disproportionation efficiency and isomerization efficiency have weakened month - on - month. The aromatics price difference between the US and Asia has continued to shrink [1]. MEG - Supply side: The domestic oil - based production has increased its load, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Overseas maintenance has continued to increase, and the arrival at the port is stable. For example, Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton device has restarted, and Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device has been under maintenance [1]. - Inventory: The port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of the week, and the basis has remained weak [1]. - Profit: The coal - based production efficiency has fluctuated at a low level [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Supply side: The operation of some devices in Zhejiang has restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month [1]. - Demand side: The start - up of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the product inventory has accumulated, with the efficiency improving month - on - month [1]. - Profit: Although the domestic demand side of staple fiber is gradually entering the off - season, the spot efficiency has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise of raw materials, and the processing fee on the futures market has remained low [1]. Natural Rubber - Price: The prices of various types of natural rubber, such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, etc., have shown certain fluctuations. For example, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber has increased by 35 in the weekly change [1]. - Inventory: The national explicit inventory has remained stable [1]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - Price: The prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, and downstream products such as EPS, ABS, and PS have fluctuated. For example, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) has changed from 5345 on December 30, 2025, to 5305 on January 7, 2026 [1]. - Profit: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS have also shown corresponding changes [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The concentrated shutdown and maintenance of PTA enterprises remain the main means to balance the market; some old facilities in countries such as Japan and South Korea still drag down the Asian operating rate, with concentrated maintenance in the second quarter. Therefore, PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half as new production capacity is put into operation. The strategy is to seize low - level long - position opportunities in the first half of the year and follow crude oil operations in the second half [4][122]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In 2025, PTA reached a high of around 5300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Then, due to seasonal inventory accumulation expectations in the first quarter, the market pressure increased, and the price declined. In the second quarter, tariff increases and new device commissions put pressure on the market. In the second half of the year, supply - demand drivers were weak, and the price fluctuated widely between 4400 - 5000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there was a significant rebound driven by concentrated PTA maintenance and PXN rebound [9]. Chapter 2: PTA Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 PTA Supply Situation - **PTA投产高峰结束, 2026年无新增产能**: As of the end of 2024, the global PTA capacity was about 110 million tons, expected to reach 116.25 million tons/year in 2025. Asia accounted for over 90%, and China accounted for over 78% of Asian capacity. In 2025 - 2030, new global PTA capacity will mainly come from Asia and the Middle East. China's PTA capacity will see a significant reduction in new capacity after 2025, with no clear new capacity planned for 2026 [13][14]. - **PTA低开工、低利润；主动检修平衡供需**: In 2025, due to over - capacity and losses, many PTA devices were shut down for maintenance. The average domestic PTA device operating rate from January to November was 77.9%, 1.98% lower than the previous year. In 2025, the PTA processing fee was at a low level, and device shutdowns and production cuts increased to balance supply and demand [18][21]. - **国外新装置投产压制, PTA出口量缩减**: In 2025, China's PTA exports declined significantly. From January to October, the cumulative export was 309.64 million tons, a 16.95% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The main reason was the slowdown in overseas polyester production and the progress of PTA certification in India. However, there were some increases in exports to emerging markets such as the UAE and Russia [28][29]. - **PTA社会库存降低**: By the end of December, PTA social inventory was 3.19 million tons, a significant decrease due to increased maintenance and high polyester production growth [32]. 2.2 PTA Demand Analysis - **内需内生动力仍不足**: In 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in China showed a mild recovery. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales reached 1.2053 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase. However, in 2026, although there were policies to support consumption, the slowdown in economic growth and the decrease in residents' income and expenditure would still restrict domestic demand [36][40]. - **外需结构性分化**: In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes affected textile and clothing exports. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of textile yarn and clothing exports were 1.8% and - 3% respectively. The export market showed a clear differentiation of "growth in textiles and decline in clothing". In 2026, textile exports may show positive signs, while clothing exports will still face pressure [43][46]. - **聚酯产能扩张**: From 2016 - 2024, China's polyester capacity had an average annual growth rate of 7.09%. In 2025, 3.5 million tons of new polyester capacity was added, and in 2026, about 4 million tons of new capacity is planned. The main products for new capacity in 2026 are filaments and staple fibers [47][49]. - **聚酯开工率高、出口增速高，利润压缩**: In 2025, the average polyester operating rate was around 90%. From January to November, polyester production was 72.87 million tons, a 7.56% year - on - year increase. Polyester products were mainly exported, but the industry's profit was compressed. In 2026, the new polyester capacity growth rate will still be high, and profits are expected to remain low, but the average operating rate can maintain resilience [52][66]. Chapter 3: Upstream Analysis 3.1 Crude Oil Situation - **原油供需概况**: In 2025, international oil prices trended downward. The global crude oil market faced weak demand and increased production. IEA adjusted the supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC+ started to increase production in April 2025 and paused in the first quarter of 2026. The return of OPEC+'s remaining 1.65 million barrels/day of production in 2026 will be an important variable. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels/day in 2026, with certain increases in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, while US production is under pressure [68][78]. - **原油消费情况**: IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2026, petrochemical raw materials will be the core source of demand growth. China's crude oil demand will still increase, with petrochemical raw materials being the main growth source [89][97]. - **原油供需结论**: Most institutions predict that the growth of crude oil demand in 2026 will be around 1 million barrels/day. The supply surplus in the 2026 crude oil market is a relatively certain prediction, but the oil price may be more resilient than in 2025, and 2026 is likely to be a bottom - building year for oil prices [98]. 3.2 PX Situation - **PX产能投放进入尾声**: In 2025, the global PX capacity was about 80.68 million tons/year, with Asia dominating the supply. China contributed over 90% of the new global capacity. In 2025, there were no new PX devices in China, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is 2.6 million tons. If the Yulong Petrochemical device is put into operation, the total capacity will approach 47 million tons [99][100]. - **中国开工率偏高，亚洲开工率低**: In 2025, China's average PX operating rate was 87.1%, higher than in 2024, due to sufficient raw material supply and good short - process profits. The Asian PX operating rate was mostly between 78% - 80% due to frequent maintenance of old devices in Japan and South Korea, diversion of aromatic raw materials for oil blending, and slow progress of PX device construction in emerging markets [103]. - **中国产量微增，亚洲产量降低**: In 2025, China's PX production remained stable, with a 0.1% year - on - year increase from January to October. Asian PX production decreased by 2.4% year - on - year from January to October, mainly due to production declines in regions other than China [107]. - **中国进口量增加**: From January to October 2025, China's PX imports were 7.8569 million tons, a 3.85% year - on - year increase. The main trading partners were South Korea, Japan, etc. [111]. - **PX社会库存下降**: By December 27, PX social inventory was 4.07 million tons [114]. - **调油利润偏低迷；PXN改善**: In 2026, there will be more new PX capacity, but it will be concentrated in the second half of the year. PXN will continue to improve in the first half of the year and face pressure in the second half [120]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **行情展望**: In 2026, the crude oil market will still face a supply surplus, but the oil price may be more resilient. PX will see more new capacity in the second half of the year, with PXN facing pressure. PTA will have no new capacity, but the output of new devices in 2025 will gradually increase, and concentrated maintenance will still be the main means to balance the market. Polyester will have a high new capacity growth rate, with low profits, but the operating rate can maintain resilience [121]. - **投资策略**: In the first half of 2026, seize low - level long - position opportunities; in the second half, follow crude oil operations [122].

Market Overview - On January 6, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, with a relatively positive trading atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis fluctuated within a range, with concentrated transactions in early January [1] - The main spot basis was at 05-46, with transactions occurring at 05-47 to 05-48 and later at 05-45 and 05-42 [1] Profitability - As of January 6, the PTA spot processing fee was around 296 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2603 and TA2605 futures were 329 yuan/ton and 336 yuan/ton, respectively [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of January 4, Dushan Energy's 2.5 million tons facility resumed operations, while Zhongtai's 1.2 million tons facility restarted at low capacity. Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons facility increased its output, resulting in a PTA operating rate of 78.1% [1] - Demand: As of January 4, there was a mix of facility restarts and maintenance, with polyester operating rates at approximately 90.8%. On January 6, there were localized adjustments in the price of polyester yarn, with individual sales performance varying. Factory inventory levels were relatively low, but inventory slightly increased due to insufficient sales. If raw material prices stabilize, short-term prices are expected to remain steady, with attention on upcoming holiday and maintenance plans [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of PTA processing fees, uncertainties regarding PTA facility maintenance in Q1 have increased. Some facilities are returning to supply, while downstream polyester production is expected to decrease seasonally before and after the Spring Festival, leading to heightened expectations of inventory accumulation for PTA in Q1. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and significant losses will gradually highlight the pressure on polyester factories, prompting some to implement production cuts and maintenance plans for January and February. The supply-demand outlook for PTA in January is expected to weaken, with limited self-driven momentum for PTA, primarily following raw material fluctuations. The strategy suggests PTA will oscillate between 5000-5200 in the short term, with a low bullish approach in the medium term [1]

1月6日，新凤鸣涨6.25%，成交额4.24亿元。两融数据显示，当日新凤鸣获融资买入额3165.32万元，融 资偿还2062.21万元，融资净买入1103.11万元。截至1月6日，新凤鸣融资融券余额合计1.58亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，新凤鸣十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第九大流通 股东，持股1673.14万股，为新进股东。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至12月19日，新凤鸣股东户数1.81万，较上期减少8.20%；人均流通股83564股，较上期增加8.93%。 2025年1月-9月，新凤鸣实现营业收入515.42亿元，同比增长4.77%；归母净利润8.69亿元，同比增长 16.53%。 分红方面，新凤鸣A股上市后累计派现17.33亿元。近三年，累计派现7.20亿元。 融资方面，新凤鸣当日融资买入3165.32万元。当前融资余额1.52亿元，占流通市值的0.49%，融资余额 低于近一年40%分位水平，处于较低位。 融券方面，新凤鸣1月6日融券偿还6.64万股，融券卖出2600.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额5.35万 元；融券余量28.13万股，融券余额578.55万元，超过近一 ...

音烙橡胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 P 不 As 占 商品 POY 1 石脑油日 PX CFR PTA内盘现 仓单+有 PTA平衡 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 50D/4 聚酯毛利 TA基美 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 工差 效预报 台湾 न्ह 解价差 K 荷 负荷 8F Hill 2025/1 5065 61.9 235 892 6570 80.61 357.0 311 -146 78.2 78.1 114648 -65 0.40 2/29 2025/1 61.9 239 894 5100 6545 84.76 355.0 346 -203 78.2 78.1 107482 -52 0.35 2/30 图H 2025/1 -194 78.2 0.40 60.9 536 893 5085 6545 90.35 347 78.1 106756 -48 357.0 2/31 2026/0 523 884 5030 361.0 330 104266 61.8 ୧୧୦୧ 69.80 -165 80.0 78.1 -50 0.45 1/05 2026/0 l 图H 60.7 534 508 ...

Group 1 - Hengli Petrochemical's stock increased by 5.18%, reaching 23.15 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 478 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.30%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 162.95 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on March 9, 1999, and listed on August 20, 2001, is located in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as the production and sales of steam and electricity [1] - The main revenue composition of Hengli Petrochemical includes refining products at 45.92%, PTA at 31.10%, polyester products at 19.24%, and others at 3.73% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management holds a significant position in Hengli Petrochemical, with 942,500 shares, accounting for 3.38% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth-largest holding [2] - The Caitong Asset Management Value Discovery Mixed A fund (008276) was established on March 23, 2020, with a current scale of 402 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 1.22% and a one-year return of 35.92% [2] - The fund manager, Li Xiang, has been in position for 7 years and 287 days, overseeing a total asset scale of 3.468 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 37.6% and the worst being -30.26% [3]