证券研究报告 同程旅行 (780 HK) 港股通 1Q25 业绩：仍处在利润率上行期 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 25 日│中国香港 | 互联网 | 同程公布 1Q25 业绩：收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合 VA 一致预期 的 43 亿元（简称预期），调整后净利润 7.9 亿元，超预期 8%，主要来自于 精细化运营补贴下，产品毛利率超预期。公司持续深挖用户价值，1Q 平均 月付费用户 yoy+9.2%，并推进补贴优化和运营效率提升。4 月公司亦通过 收购万达酒店管理公司强化产业链协同，重点发展酒店管理业务作为第二增 长曲线。我们看好国内旅游的需求韧性，公司有望持续通过用户价值挖掘、 促进产业链整合获得长期收入增长和利润释放。维持"买入"评级 收入符合预期，旅游需求韧性下深挖用户价值 公司 1Q25 收入 44 亿元，yoy+13.2%，基本符合预期，拆分来看，核心 OTA 业务中，住宿/交通/其他业务相较预期分别-0.1%/+2.2%/+0.6%，各项业务 发展稳健且基本符合预期。度假业务因东南亚 ...

2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

Core Insights - Fliggy's AI feature "Ask Me" has recently updated several functionalities, enhancing the accuracy of information queries and generation for "Smart Travel Advisor" and "Hotel Advisor" [1] - A new AI role, "Member Assistant," has been introduced to help users check membership levels and corresponding exclusive benefits [1] - The practicality of the hand-drawn itinerary map has significantly improved, along with optimizations in basic functions such as search engine input suggestions and one-click generation of travel plans in long image format [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 同程旅行（00780.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：核心业务高速增长， 利润率显著提升 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,896 | 17,341 | 19,805 | 22,486 | 25,418 | | 同比(%) | 80.67 | 45.77 | 14.21 | 13.54 | 13.04 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,554 | 1,974 | 2,504 | 3,006 | 3,516 | | 同比(%) | 1,164.41 | 27.04 | 26.80 | 20.05 | 16.99 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.51 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 28.28 | 22.26 | 17.56 | 14.62 | 12.50 | [T ...

金十数据5月26日讯，中银国际发表研究报告指，同程旅行(00780.HK)首季经调整净利润按年升41%， 胜于该行预期。报告指，这反映出虽然集团面对去年基数较高和酒店房价疲弱等不利因素，但公司策略 仍然奏效，同时，集团专注低线城市用户亦使其表现短期内优于同行。公司继续强调进一步变现，并提 升其销售和市场推广工作的投资回报率，预期这将支持其利润率。该行表示，即使未计入同程拟收购万 达酒店管理的交易，仍对其今年实现净利润按年增长20%更有信心，重申其买入评级，目标价由23.3港 元轻微上升至23.6港元。 中银国际微升同程旅行目标价至23.6港元 首季业绩胜预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in profit margins, with a focus on international expansion performance [3][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 13%, and an adjusted net profit of 790 million yuan, up 41% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform generated revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18%, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing reached 2 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from increased demand and enhanced value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 23% year-over-year increase, with international hotel night volume growing over 50% [6]. - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure, generating 590 million yuan, down 11.8% year-over-year, due to safety issues in Southeast Asia [6]. User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 46.5 million, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, with annual paying users totaling 247 million, up 7.8% year-over-year [6]. - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities in China, with 68% of new paying users from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [6]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.7 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan [8]. - The target market capitalization for 2025 is set at 51.4 billion yuan, with a target price of 24 HKD per share [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].

港股同程旅行涨超10%，第一季度同程旅行实现收入约43.77亿元，同比增长13.2%；经调整净利润约 7.88亿元，同比增长41.1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tongcheng Travel's performance is steadily growing driven by the release of public travel demand, AI technology revolution, and global expansion [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 4.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%; adjusted EBITDA reached 1.159 billion yuan, up 41.3% [2][3] - The company reported a 40% year-on-year increase in international ticket sales and a 50% increase in international hotel night stays [2] Business Segments - The three core business segments of transportation, accommodation, and vacation all experienced double-digit growth in Q1 2025, with transportation revenue increasing by 15.2% to 2 billion yuan, accommodation revenue rising by 23.3% to 1.19 billion yuan, and vacation revenue growing by 20% to 603 million yuan [1][2] - The annual service user count reached 1.96 billion, with annual paying users hitting a record high of 247 million [2] AI Integration - Tongcheng Travel has advanced its AI capabilities, achieving a 43% improvement in efficiency and an 80% increase in booking efficiency through the integration of "Chengxin AI" and DeepSeek [3] - The AI system can generate personalized travel plans based on user input, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [3] Market Outlook - The CEO of Tongcheng Travel expressed optimism about the growing travel market, particularly among non-first-tier city consumers, and plans to continue focusing on the mass travel market while enhancing AI capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 13.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.2 billion yuan, with an EBITDA margin of 30%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The international business continues to grow significantly, with outbound travel maintaining stable growth. The cross-border flight capacity has recovered to 83% of pre-pandemic levels, and hotel and flight bookings for outbound travel have exceeded 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30%-40% [7] - Domestic tourism demand remains strong, with inbound tourism also experiencing robust growth. In Q1, the number of inbound travelers increased by 40% year-on-year, with 75% coming from visa-free regions. The company's platform saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in inbound bookings, with hotel bookings in major visa-free countries in the Asia-Pacific region surging over 240% [7] - The company continues to focus on enhancing its international business through better product experiences and customer service, with a sales expense ratio of approximately 21% in Q1, which is better than expected [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with the adjusted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 17.6 billion, 19.7 billion, and 22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18, 16, and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 122.12%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 53.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.73% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 9.92 billion yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 606.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 17.07 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 72.08% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 13.90 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.27 times [1]