Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [5][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 40.63% and 63.09% respectively [1][3]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025, with specific expectations for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, to maintain steady growth [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its capital strength and international brand image by issuing H shares and distributing a cash dividend of 1.3 billion yuan to shareholders [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink, Electrolyte Water, and other beverages of 13.30 billion yuan, 1.50 billion yuan, and 1.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.19% [2]. - The gross margin and net margin improved to 44.81% and 21.00% respectively, with a notable decrease in sales and management expense ratios [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 20.61 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.50 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 30.11% and 35.29% respectively [4][11]. Market Position - Dongpeng Special Drink holds a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, with a sales revenue share of 34.9%, maintaining a strong position in the market [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 212 new distributors, bringing the total to 3,193, and increasing active terminal points to nearly 4 million [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with new product launches in the health beverage segment, including herbal teas and plant-based drinks [2][3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are 30%, 25%, and 23% respectively, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance continues to show strong growth, driven by the release of platform efficiencies and sustained high revenue growth [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 20.339 billion yuan in 2025, 24.666 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.840 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 28.41%, 21.28%, and 20.98% [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue sources include the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which generated 13.304 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 28.49%, accounting for 84.08% of total revenue [6][8]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, achieving 1.495 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable increase of 280.37% [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [8]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink maintained its leading market share in China's energy drink market, with sales volume share increasing from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with revenue from distributors, key accounts, and online channels growing by 37.28%, 57.59%, and 116.95% respectively [6][8]. - The number of active distributors increased to 3,193, a growth of 7.11%, with the average revenue per distributor rising to 4.26 million yuan, up 28.16% [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 6.40 yuan in 2024, 8.41 yuan in 2025, and 10.27 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth in profitability [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 22.30 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [4][8]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to open new growth avenues [8].

东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 2024 年收入高增，2025 年稳中求进 2025 年 03 月 11 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 226.67 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 298.06/176.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,178.71 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.20 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.65 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 东鹏饮料 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年收入高增，新品亮眼—公司 信息更新报告》-2025.1.23 《开局良好，新品可期—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.4.23 《2023 年高速增长，2024 年势头良好 —公司信息更新报告》-2024.4.17 食品饮料/饮料乳品 张宇光（分析师） 方勇（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set for the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.84 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.33 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 40.63% and 63.09% respectively [1][4]. - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth rate of no less than 20% in 2025, with specific expectations for its flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, to continue stable growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue breakdown includes 13.30 billion yuan from Dongpeng Special Drink, 1.50 billion yuan from electrolyte water, and 1.02 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.19% [2]. - The gross margin improved to 44.81%, and the net margin reached 21.00%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points respectively [2][4]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink holds a 47.9% market share in the energy drink segment, with a sales revenue share of 34.9%, marking an increase of 4.9 and 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company has expanded its distribution network, adding 212 new distributors, bringing the total to 3,193, and increasing active terminal points to nearly 4 million [2][3]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 23% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% for the same years [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.65 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [9][4] - The company is expanding its national presence in the energy drink sector, with a second revenue curve accounting for 16% of total revenue [10][4] - Cost optimization and scale effects have significantly improved profitability, with gross and net profit margins reaching 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, in 2024 [11][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 158.39 billion yuan, a 40.63% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 33.27 billion yuan, which is a 63.09% increase [9][4] - The fourth quarter revenue was 32.81 billion yuan, up 25.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.19 billion yuan, increasing by 61.21% [9][4] - Cash received from sales in 2024 was approximately 204.30 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.98% increase [9][4] Product Segmentation - Revenue from different beverage categories in 2024 was 13.304 billion yuan from functional drinks, 1.495 billion yuan from "Water", and 1.023 billion yuan from other beverages, with respective growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.2% [10][4] - The company has achieved a 100% coverage rate in prefecture-level cities, with nearly 4 million sales outlets and 3,193 distributors [9][4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11][4] - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreased to 16.93%, 2.69%, and -1.20%, respectively, benefiting from scale effects from high-growth products [11][4] Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 201.70 billion yuan, 248.81 billion yuan, and 295.30 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.34%, 23.36%, and 18.68% [4][17] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 44.06 billion yuan, 57.25 billion yuan, and 71.18 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.43%, 29.93%, and 24.33% [4][17]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月11日 东鹏饮料（605499.SH） 优于大市 2024 年收入同比增长 41%，盈利能力提升 公司 2024 年收入同比增长 41%。东鹏饮料发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年实现收入 158.39 亿元，同比增长 40.63%，归母净利润 33.27 亿元， 同比增长 63.09%。其中四季度营收 32.81 亿元，同比增长 25.12%；归母 净利润 6.19 亿元，同比增长 61.21%。回款方面，2024 年公司销售商品 收到的现金约 204.30 亿元，同比+46.98%；其中四季度回款 64.39 亿， 同比增长 74.4%。2024 年，公司已有 3193 家经销商，销售终端网点数 量近 400 万家，实现地级市覆盖率达到 100%，东鹏饮料全国化进程稳步 推进，在能量饮料行业的份额逐年提升。 特饮仍在加速全国化，第二曲线收入占比已达 16%。分品类看，2024 年特 饮/补水啦/其他饮料收入分别为 133.04/14.95/10.23 亿元，同比增长 28.49%/280.37%/103.2%，其中，补水啦通过延展口味、提高铺市率维 持高速增长；其他 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.1% year-on-year [8] - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated revenue of 13.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, while the electrolyte drink saw a remarkable growth of 280.4% [8] - The company is expanding its market presence, with revenue from regions outside Guangdong increasing by 49.6% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue from outside Guangdong rising by 3.4 percentage points to 56.94% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 11.263 billion yuan, 2024A: 15.839 billion yuan, 2025E: 20.438 billion yuan, 2026E: 25.509 billion yuan, and 2027E: 30.259 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 32.42%, 40.63%, 29.04%, 24.81%, and 18.62% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.040 billion yuan in 2023A, 3.327 billion yuan in 2024A, 4.479 billion yuan in 2025E, 5.796 billion yuan in 2026E, and 7.076 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.60%, 63.09%, 34.64%, 29.39%, and 22.09% respectively [8] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 3.92 yuan in 2023A, 6.40 yuan in 2024A, 8.61 yuan in 2025E, 11.15 yuan in 2026E, and 13.61 yuan in 2027E [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong channel presence with nearly 4 million active terminal stores and over 300,000 ice cabinets deployed, enhancing channel quality [8] - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth rate of no less than 20% for the year, supported by a solid base in the energy drink market [8] - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with plans to explore new categories such as sugar-free tea, which is expected to contribute to future growth [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio in the food and beverage sector has decreased, while the overweight ratio has slightly increased. As of Q4 2024, the total market value of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector is 309.25 billion, down by 41.40 billion from the previous quarter, with a heavy holding ratio of 4.56%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [1][12][14] - The white liquor sector has seen a significant decline in heavy holding ratios, while the majority of the consumer goods sector has increased. The heavy holding ratio for the white liquor sector is 3.95%, down by 0.65 percentage points, while other sub-sectors like beverage and dairy have shown increases [1][15][17] Summary by Sections Heavy Holding Ratios - In Q4 2024, the food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio ranks third among 31 primary industries, below the five-year average of 7.27%, indicating potential for growth [1][12] - The heavy holding market value in the food and beverage sector accounts for 11.73% of the total heavy holdings, a decrease of 0.52 percentage points [14] Sub-sector Performance - The white liquor sector's heavy holding ratio has decreased significantly, while the majority of consumer goods sub-sectors have increased. The beverage and dairy sub-sector's heavy holding ratio rose to 0.28%, while non-white liquor and snack food sectors also saw slight increases [15][17][18] - The heavy holding ratio for the food processing sub-sector has continued to decline, now at 1.30%, the lowest among all sub-sectors [18] Individual Stock Analysis - The top ten heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector are dominated by white liquor stocks, with seven out of ten positions held by white liquor companies. The overall heavy holding ratio for these top ten stocks is 4.22%, down by 0.44 percentage points [2][28] - The leading companies in heavy holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with Kweichow Moutai maintaining the highest heavy holding ratio at 2.05% [28][30] Investment Recommendations - Despite the overall weak recovery in consumption, it is anticipated that policies to boost consumption will be strengthened in 2025, presenting opportunities in the food and beverage sector. Key areas to focus on include: - White liquor: Expecting demand recovery to alleviate inventory pressure, particularly in mid-range and mass-market segments [3] - Beer: Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with a recovery in demand for mid-to-high-end beers [3] - Seasoning products: Continued cost advantages and health-oriented demand are seen as growth drivers [3] - Dairy products: Approaching a cost inflection point, with price wars expected to ease [3]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 持续丰富产品矩阵，势能保持向好 2025 年 02 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8505 | 11263 | 16017 | 20706 | 25709 | | 同比（%） | 21.89 | 32.42 | 42.21 | 29.28 | 24.16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1441 | 2040 | 3351 | 4510 | 5801 | | 同比（%） | 20.75 | 41.60 | 64.31 | 34.58 | 28.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.77 | 3.92 | 6.45 | 8.67 | 11.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 77.21 | 54.53 | 33.19 | 24.66 | 19.17 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 东鹏饮料（605499） 持续丰富产品矩阵，势能保持向好 2025 年 02 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8505 | 11263 | 16017 | 20706 | 25709 | | 同比（%） | 21.89 | 32.42 | 42.21 | 29.28 | 24.16 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1441 | 2040 | 3351 | 4510 | 5801 | | 同比（%） | 20.75 | 41.60 | 64.31 | 34.58 | 28.62 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.77 | 3.92 | 6.45 | 8.67 | 11.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 77.21 | 54.53 | 33.19 | 24.66 | 19.17 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summ ...