作为东南亚市占据首位的快递公司，极兔第三季度在东南亚市场业务保持了强势的增长，实现包裹量20 亿件，同比增长78.7%；日均包裹量2170万件。截至2025年9月底，东南亚网点数量达到10700个，较去 年底增加900个。同时受东南亚市场包裹量快速增长的影响，干线车辆的需求也进一步提升，第三季度 东南亚干线车辆数量较去年底增加900辆至5500辆。 在竞争激烈的中国市场，第三季度极兔实现包裹量55.8亿件，同比保持双位数增长达10.4%；日均包裹 量6060万件。新市场（包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、巴西及埃及）方面，极兔第三季度实现包裹 量1.04亿件，同比上升47.9%；日均包裹量113万件。 （文章来源：证券日报） 本报讯 （记者袁传玺）10月14日，全球物流服务运营商极兔速递环球有限公司（以下简称"极兔"， 1519.HK）公布2025年第三季度主要经营数据。2025年第三季度，极兔总体实现包裹量约76.8亿件，同 比增长23.1%；日均包裹量8340万件，各主要市场均实现双位数增长，其中东南亚及新市场增长尤为迅 猛。 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) announced a share repurchase plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Share Repurchase Details - The company plans to repurchase 450,100 shares at a total cost of $8.4216 million [1] - The repurchase price per share is set between $18.56 and $18.97 [1]

Core Viewpoints - The transportation industry is experiencing a decline in passenger flight volumes following the National Day holiday, with overall and domestic flight volumes down by 0.6% week-on-week, but still above 2019 levels [1][3] - The implementation of reciprocal port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [2] Shipping Industry - The upcoming US port fee measures will take effect on October 14, prompting China to respond with special port fees for US vessels [2] - Different shipping segments will experience varying impacts, with container shipping likely facing the least disruption, while oil and dry bulk shipping will be more significantly affected [2] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial policy confusion, but major container shipping companies have committed to not raising prices to maintain competitiveness [2] - Oil shipping rates are expected to perform strongly in the short to medium term due to seasonal effects and recent geopolitical developments [2] Aviation Industry - The overall and domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased post-holiday, but remain above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [3] - The domestic aviation market is expected to continue improving in supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices likely stabilizing [3][4] Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases in the express delivery sector, with most regions now participating in this trend [4] - The industry is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter due to reduced competition and better regulatory balance [4] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like SF Express and the Tongda system, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing policy changes [4][5]

Market Performance - US stock markets rebounded with the S&P 500 rising by 1.56% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.21%, led by technology stocks such as Broadcom and Tesla, while cryptocurrency mining and precious metals sectors saw significant gains [2] - Gold and silver prices reached historic highs, with spot gold surpassing $4,100 per ounce, closing up 2.3% at $4,110.7, and spot silver rising to $52.37 per ounce, nearing the 1980 historical peak of $52.50 [2] - The surge in silver prices was attributed to a lack of liquidity in the London market, leading to a spike in borrowing rates and traders urgently transporting physical silver to London for arbitrage [2] Trade Relations and Measures - The US threatened to impose tariffs on China's rare earth exports, to which China responded by announcing special port fees for US vessels, starting at 400 RMB per net ton in the first year and increasing to 1,120 RMB per ton by 2028 [3] - The Netherlands imposed restrictions on China's Wingtech Technology's subsidiary, Nexperia, with China opposing the broad interpretation of national security [3] Energy and Commodities - WTI crude oil rose by 1% to $59.49 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.94% to $63.32 per barrel; China's September imports of soybeans and iron ore reached historical highs, while rare earth exports fell by 31% month-on-month [4] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged by 29% since the end of June due to rising raw material costs, significantly boosting company profits [4] Foreign Trade and Industry - China's September exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year, and imports increased by 7.4%, both exceeding expectations; exports of industrial robots and wind power equipment were strong, with soybean and iron ore imports hitting historical highs [5] - The total value of imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 4% and maintaining positive growth for eight consecutive quarters [5] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 137.8 billion RMB, maintaining a 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 1.40%; short-term Shibor rates rose while long-term rates remained stable [5] - The monetary policy for 2025 is set to be moderately loose, supporting reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, with a focus on investments in technology, green finance, and inclusive finance [5] Industry and Technological Breakthroughs - China's "Kua Fu" facility prototype for controllable nuclear fusion passed inspection, achieving a thermal load capacity of 20 megawatts per square meter, laying the groundwork for power generation by 2030 [6] - A team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences made breakthroughs in sulfide electrolyte technology for solid-state batteries, enhancing battery cycle life to 2,400 cycles and energy density to over 500 Wh/kg [6] - China Unicom accelerated the commercialization of eSIM, with over 60,000 participants, while Apple plans to start pre-orders for the iPhone Air on October 17 [6] A-share Market Performance - The three major indices opened lower but rebounded, with rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductor sectors leading the gains; total trading volume exceeded 2.3 trillion RMB, with 70 stocks hitting the daily limit [8] - Key sectors included rare earth and minor metals, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit due to tightening export licenses and rising gold prices [8] - In the storage chip sector, Samsung and Micron reduced production to maintain prices, while domestic companies like GigaDevice and Deep Technology reported over 80% profit growth [9] - Tesla plans to mass-produce humanoid robots by 2026, leading to a surge in demand for precision reducers and sensors [10] Corporate Developments - JPMorgan announced a $1.5 trillion investment plan focusing on key industries such as rare earths, AI, and nuclear energy [11] - OpenAI partnered with Broadcom to deploy a 10GW custom AI accelerator, promoting upgrades in the semiconductor and computing power supply chain [12] - An investigation into a Xiaomi car accident ruled out technical faults, with potential involvement of drunk driving [13] Economic Recognition - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to the understanding of "innovation-driven economic growth" [14] Real Estate and Logistics - In the real estate sector, Shenzhen's Guangming District reported a continuous increase in sales area for 15 months, with a 102% rise in subscription volume in September, indicating sustained market enthusiasm [14] - The express delivery industry surpassed 1.5 billion packages, reaching this milestone 37 days earlier than in 2024, with a shift from price wars to a focus on quality [15]

Core Insights - J&T Express reported a significant increase in parcel volume for Q3 2025, reaching approximately 7.68 billion parcels, a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - The company maintains a strong position in the Southeast Asian market, with parcel volume reaching 2 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 78.7% [1] - The new markets, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt, also showed substantial growth, with parcel volume increasing by 47.9% to 10.4 million [1] Southeast Asia Market Performance - J&T Express achieved a parcel volume of 2 billion in Southeast Asia, with a daily average of 21.7 million parcels [1] - The number of operational outlets in Southeast Asia reached 10,700, an increase of 900 outlets since the end of the previous year [1] - The demand for trunk vehicles in Southeast Asia rose, with the number of vehicles increasing by 900 to a total of 5,500 [1] China Market Performance - In the Chinese market, J&T Express reported a parcel volume of 5.58 billion, maintaining a double-digit growth rate of 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The daily average parcel volume in China was recorded at 60.6 million [1] New Markets Performance - The new markets segment achieved a parcel volume of 10.4 million, with a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [1] - The daily average parcel volume in these new markets was 1.13 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 76.47%, despite a slight decline of 0.84% in the last five trading days [1] Company Overview - Shentong Express Co., Ltd. is located in Qingpu District, Shanghai, and was established on November 1, 2001. It was listed on September 8, 2010. The company primarily engages in domestic express delivery, general freight, cargo transportation agency, warehousing services, and unloading services [1] - The main business revenue composition is 98.67% from express services and 1.33% from other services [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shentong Express achieved operating revenue of 25.025 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 453 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 1.614 billion yuan in dividends, with 131 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shentong Express was 42,500, an increase of 11.27% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 10.13% to 35,095 shares [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 43.2118 million shares, a decrease of 19.7221 million shares from the previous period [3]

在竞争激烈的中国市场，第三季度公司实现包裹量55.8亿件，同比保持双位数增长达10.4%；日均包裹 量6,060万件。新市场(包括沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、墨西哥、巴西及埃及)方面，极兔第三季度实现包裹量 1.04亿件，同比升47.9%；日均包裹量113万件。 来源：微信公众号.棘极兔节拍 作为东南亚市占居首位的快递公司，极兔第三季度在东南亚市场业务保持了强势的增长，实现包裹量20 亿件，同比增长78.7%；日均包裹量2,170万件。截至2025年9月底止，东南亚网点数量达到10,700个， 较去年底增加900个。同时受东南亚市场包裹量快速增长的的影响，干线车辆的需求也进一步提升，第 三季度东南亚干线车辆数量较去年底增加900辆至5,500辆。 香港，2025年10月14日 ——全球物流服务运营商极兔速递 (1519.HK)公布2025年第三季度主要经营数 据。截至2025年9月30日止之第三季度，公司总体实现包裹量约76.8亿件，同比增长23.1%；日均包裹量 8,340万件，各主要市场均实现双位数增长，其中东南亚及新市场增长尤为迅猛。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see performance recovery due to the "anti-involution" policies, while the mutual port fees imposed by China and the U.S. are likely to drive shipping rates upward [1][2]. - The shipping industry is facing mixed impacts from the U.S. port fee measures, with over 40% of shipping capacity affected by U.S. fees, while the impact on Chinese shipping capacity is significantly lower [1][20]. - The aviation sector is projected to experience a gradual recovery in ticket prices and profitability as the domestic passenger market continues to optimize supply and demand dynamics [2][34]. - The express delivery industry is witnessing a significant price increase across major production areas, with expectations for this trend to continue through the end of the year [2][43]. Shipping Sector Summary - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the U.S. is expected to create short-term price volatility, particularly affecting oil and dry bulk shipping more than container shipping [1][20]. - The oil shipping rates have shown a significant increase recently, with VLCC shipping rates rising due to concerns over port congestion and supply chain efficiency [1][20]. - The overall impact of the mutual port fees on shipping rates is limited, but initial chaos from policy implementation may lead to fluctuations [20][21]. Aviation Sector Summary - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-holiday, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels [2][33]. - The average domestic ticket price has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase [2][34]. - The aviation market is expected to see continued improvement in profitability as supply-demand gaps narrow [34]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of the express delivery volume in China, with expectations for sustained price stability [2][43]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the express delivery sector during the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand [2][43]. - Major express companies are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies, with specific recommendations for companies like SF Express and ZTO Express [5][54]. Key Company Ratings and Predictions - COSCO Shipping Energy: Outperform, 2025E PE of 12.2 [6]. - SF Express: Outperform, 2025E PE of 17.4, with expected growth of 15-20% in 2026 [6][54]. - ZTO Express: Outperform, with a focus on long-term value and stable returns [5][54].

Core Viewpoint - J&T Express (极兔速递) reported strong growth in parcel volume for Q3 2025, with a significant increase in both overall and regional performance, particularly in Southeast Asia and new markets [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - The company achieved a total parcel volume of approximately 7.68 billion pieces in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.1% [1] - The average daily parcel volume reached 83.4 million pieces [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - In Southeast Asia, the company maintained robust growth, with a parcel volume of 2 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 78.7% [1] - The average daily parcel volume in Southeast Asia was 21.7 million pieces [1] Group 3: Performance in China - In the Chinese market, the company achieved a parcel volume of 5.58 billion pieces in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] - The average daily parcel volume in China was 60.6 million pieces [1] Group 4: New Markets - In new markets, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Mexico, Brazil, and Egypt, the company reported a parcel volume of 10.4 million pieces, which is a year-on-year increase of 47.9% [1] - The average daily parcel volume in these new markets was 1.13 million pieces [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a parcel volume of 468 million pieces in Q3 2025, representing a 31.8% increase year-on-year and a total year-on-year increase of 25.6% for the first nine months [2][3] - The gross market in Southeast Asia and China saw significant growth, with South Asia experiencing a year-on-year increase of 78.7% for the first nine months, totaling 586 million pieces [2][3] - In China, the parcel volume reached 5.85 billion pieces in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 47% [3][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-commerce platform customers have increased their investments, driving rapid growth in business volume through promotional activities [3] - Non-platform shipments are also growing, contributing to order volume, although they account for less than 10% of total shipments [3] - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 67% in new markets, with 270 billion pieces of parcels processed [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The South Asian market has shown strong growth, with a 63% increase in parcel volume [2] - Brazil has seen strong growth due to new customer entries, while Mexico faces challenges due to increased tariffs [4][10] - The overall industrial growth in China has slowed down, with a 12% decrease noted in August and September [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a growth guidance of 40% in new markets, with Brazil performing particularly well [10] - The strategy includes focusing on high-quality customers and optimizing operational efficiency in emerging markets [25][44] - The company is positioning itself to take advantage of the consolidation in the express delivery market as competitors withdraw [3][19] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, expecting Q4 growth to exceed initial guidance [7][8] - The company is cautious about profitability in the second half of the year due to industry price increases and cost pressures [11][42] - The management views the China market as a training ground for operational efficiency and talent recruitment, aiming for sustainable growth [25][44] Other Important Information - The company does not disclose quarterly financial figures, maintaining guidance provided in August [5] - The logistics index has improved, enhancing the brand image among high-quality customers [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth trend in South Asia and profitability expectations - Management expects growth in South Asia to continue exceeding guidance, with a competitive market dynamic making precise predictions challenging [7][8] Question: Impact of price increases in China - Price increases have led to a slowdown in parcel volume growth, particularly affecting low-margin customers, while high-end customers remain less sensitive to price changes [34][42] Question: Future potential in South Asia and emerging markets - Management is confident in maintaining growth momentum in South Asia, with ongoing investments in operational capabilities [36][38] Question: Strategy adjustments in China - The company plans to focus on high-quality customers and improve profitability, viewing the current market as a learning opportunity [25][44]