Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, consumer complaints in China reached 995,971, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.23% [1] - The resolution rate for these complaints was 509,655, resulting in a total economic loss recovery of 452 million yuan [1] Complaint Categories - After categorization, after-sales service issues were the most prominent, accounting for 26.47% of total complaints [1] - Compared to the first half of 2024, complaints regarding counterfeits, safety, and false advertising increased, while complaints related to after-sales service, quality, and measurement decreased [1] Product Complaints - Product-related complaints totaled 541,215, representing 54.34% of all complaints, with an increase of 8.79 percentage points from the first half of 2024 [3] - The top five categories for product complaints were home electronics, clothing and footwear, daily goods, food, and transportation [3] - Notably, complaints regarding clothing and daily goods saw an increase compared to the previous year [3] Service Complaints - Service-related complaints amounted to 406,747, making up 40.84% of total complaints, which is a decrease of 1.56 percentage points from the first half of 2024 [3] - The leading categories for service complaints included internet services, social and life services, education and training services, sales services, and cultural, entertainment, and sports services [3] - There was an increase in complaints related to financial services, education and training services, and sales services, while complaints about social and life services and telecommunications services decreased [3] Specific Product Complaints - The top five specific product complaints were for clothing, communication products, ordinary food, shoes, and daily miscellaneous items [3] - There was a notable increase in complaints regarding daily miscellaneous items, shoes, and clothing compared to the first half of 2024 [3] Specific Service Complaints - The top five specific service complaints were for commercial internet services, dining services, training services, mobile phone services, and remote shopping [4] - There was a significant increase in complaints related to transportation, education services, and performance services, while complaints about mobile phone services and accommodation services saw a decline [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the distinction between "capital expenditure reduction," "capacity reduction," and "output reduction" in the context of the current anti-involution policies, suggesting that these elements will shape the supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector from mid-2026 onwards [3][4][7][9]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The current anti-involution policies are reminiscent of the supply-side reforms from 2016-2017, which can be broken down into three core elements: "capacity reduction," "output reduction," and demand-side stimulation [4][8]. - "Capacity reduction" involves eliminating outdated capacity and curbing new capital expenditures, leading to a long-term decline in future capacity formation. This has historically supported high profitability in cyclical commodities like coal until 2022 [4][8]. - "Output reduction" aims to quickly improve the supply-demand balance in cyclical industries through general capacity shutdowns and production limits, which was crucial when capacity utilization rates were low [4][8]. Group 2: Current Manufacturing Sector Dynamics - The current state of supply in the midstream manufacturing sector closely resembles the upstream cycle of 2016, but the policy focus differs. The reduction in capital expenditure has reached its lowest growth rate since 2012, indicating a systemic correction of over-investment in advanced manufacturing driven by local government subsidies [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the capital expenditure growth rate will continue to decline, potentially remaining negative for an extended period, which will lead to fixed asset growth (capacity growth) being at absolute lows starting from 2026 [9][10]. - The report highlights that "capacity reduction" will manifest through delayed impacts of reduced capital expenditure, abandonment of existing projects, and mechanisms to encourage the exit of less competitive firms [9][10]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The report predicts that by mid-2026, the fixed asset formation growth rate of midstream manufacturing companies will fall below the nominal GDP growth rate, increasing the visibility of a turning point in supply-demand dynamics [10]. - The current low capacity utilization rates and weak internal investment willingness among firms suggest further room for decline in capital expenditure growth, reinforcing the notion that anti-involution investments will be critical for long-term profitability improvements [10]. - The report views the improvement in the supply-demand landscape of midstream manufacturing and the easing of anti-involution narratives as essential components of a bullish market outlook for 2026-2027 [10].