兴业期货日度策略：2025.08.25 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 金融期货方面：指数突破高点，情绪再度升温，沪深300指数IF2509前多继续持有。 商品期货方面：甲醇、棕榈油宜持多头思路。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪指突破3800，看涨情绪继续升温 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 上周A股强势上涨，上证指数突破3800点，沪深两市成交额提 | | | | | | 升至2.58（前值2.46）万亿元。从行业来看，通讯、电子、计算机 | | | | | | 行业领涨，房地产、医药板块涨势垫底。股指期货随现货领涨市场， | | | | | | 各期指基差显著走强。 | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | | | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | 股指 | 海外方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上发表讲话，释 | 看涨 | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 放偏鸽信号，市场风险偏好回 ...

一、事件：华为全联接大会 华为全联接大会2025将于2025年09月18日-20日在上海举行。 本届大会以"跃升行业智能化"为主题，将阐释华为全面智能化战略的最新举措，并发布全新的数智基础设施产品、行业场景化解决方案、开发工具等。 议程上，大会由3场主题演讲、20+场峰会、60+场分论坛和70+场开放演讲组成。 | 9月19日 | 9月： | | --- | --- | | 跃升行业智能化 | मेरि | | • 云上创新赋智, 成就行业AI先锋 | ● 关 | | • 深耕行业智能化实践, 助力千行万业客户智 | ਵੱ | | 能化跃升 | · 打 | | | 加 | | | ● 態 | 其中主题演讲涉及加速行业智能化跃升、鲲鹏、昇腾、华为云、鸿蒙等生态/伙伴计划等内容。 去年2024大会上，华为发布了星河AI自动驾驶网络、新一代OceanStor Dorado融合全闪存存储、医技数字化2.0解决方案、银行AI与大模型解决方案等等产品 和行业解决方案。 IDC预计，软件和信息服务、通讯与银行业将是人工智能投资最多的三个行业，到2028年占比分别为49.8%、7.4%与5.8%。 二、历史龙头表现 拓维信息 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 质量风格占优，攻守兼备红利组合持续跑出 超额 [Table_Summary] 本周 A 股市场整体回暖，科创板块表现强势，红利资产也实现正收益；红利内细分板块来看， 红利增长和红利质量相对纯粹红利资产存在超额收益。从市场表现来看，本周 A 股内各板块均 实现正收益，但收益分化较大，TMT 板块持续领涨，而医疗板块涨幅较小；聚焦电子板块内部， 半导体赛道表现活跃，集成电路设计周度涨幅大幅领先电子其他子赛道。策略表现上，本周红 利增强组合均跑赢中证红利全收益，而电子增强组合受周五半导体快速拉升行情影响，均未能 跑赢电子行业指数。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 冷旭晟 蔡文捷 覃川桃 SAC：S0490524080001 SAC：S0490523120001 SAC：S0490513030001 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 报告要点 [Table_Title 质量风格占优，攻守兼备红利组合持续跑出超 2] 额 [Table_Summary2] 自 2023 年 7 月以来，长江金工团队先 ...

8月21日，财富中文网发布了2025年《财富》中国科技50强（排名不分先后）。据记者统计，华为、腾讯、比亚迪、大疆、大族 激光、顺丰、神州数码、欣旺达、华大集团等9家深圳企业上榜，深圳成为上榜企业最多的城市之一。 今年是《财富》第二年发布中国科技50强榜单。与去年相比，今年榜单更加凸显人工智能企业的崛起。例如，今年迅速走红的 大模型公司DeepSeek首次入选；机器人赛道也迎来了更多新面孔，包括宇树科技、云深处、珞石机器人等。榜单显示，中国科 技力量正从消费互联网向人工智能、智能制造等新领域加速延展。 《财富》编辑部表示，一个科技与人类深度融合的时代已经到来。在技术迭代与市场需求的交汇中，中国公司们正在以强大的 执行力推动科技落地。在大模型领域，它们避开空泛的概念炒作，聚焦金融、医疗等垂直领域的模型优化，提高效率；在机器 人领域，它们通过优化关节灵活性与续航能力，让机器替代人类进入高危、高强度作业场景；在新能源领域，它们研发更高 效、清洁的能源，让人类与自然更和谐相处。 深圳方面，今年华为、腾讯、比亚迪、神州数码、欣旺达等5家企业蝉联上榜，同时，大疆、大族激光、顺丰、华大集团等4家 企业首次入选，涵盖通讯、数 ...

一是商品消费稳步增长，家电家具手机持续热销。7月份，商品零售额同比增长4.0%，其中限额以上单 位商品零售额增长3.1%。1-7月，商品零售额增长4.9%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效，7月份限额以上 单位家电、家具、通讯器材、文化办公用品零售额同比分别增长28.7%、20.6%、14.9%和13.8%。据汽 车流通协会数据，7月份乘用车零售量同比增长6.3%，其中新能源乘用车零售量增长12.0%，渗透率达 54%。升级类商品保持较快增长，限额以上单位体育娱乐用品、金银珠宝零售额同比分别增长13.7%和 8.2%。 二是暑期消费亮点纷呈，文体旅游"热"力十足。1-7月，服务零售额中，文体休闲服务类、旅游咨询租 赁服务类、交通出行服务类零售额保持两位数增长。避暑游人气火爆，平台数据显示，"夏日避暑好去 处"搜索热度大幅上升。文博游备受青睐，博物馆预定热度同比增长超2倍。电影市场人气较旺，暑期档 电影票房突破100亿元，一批国产优质影片口碑票房双丰收。"中国购"成为热词，离境退税政策优化叠 加免签国家扩容，推动入境消费大幅增长。 三是线上消费较快增长，实体零售加快创新转型。1-7月，网上零售额同比增长9.2%，增速 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - **Stock Indices**: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - **Gold**: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - **Silver**: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - **Copper**: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - **Nickel**: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - **Silicon Energy**: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - **Steel and Minerals** - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - **Methanol**: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - **Polyolefins**: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.

Group 1: Overall Strategy Recommendations - Hold existing long positions in the IF2509 contract of the CSI 300 Index due to continuous improvement in liquidity and high bullish sentiment [1] - Adopt a long - position strategy for liquefied petroleum gas and Shanghai aluminum, and expect Shanghai nickel to remain weak [1] - Hold short - put options on the PS2511 - P - 45000 polycrystalline silicon contract as downstream prices provide strong support [2] - Initiate new long positions in the P2601 palm oil contract as positive factors from the production area continue to emerge [2] Group 2: Equity Index Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new stage closing high and the trading volume of the two markets exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days. The communication and non - bank financial sectors led the gains, while the banking and steel sectors declined [1] - In July, domestic economic indicators fluctuated, with the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment lower than expected, which increased market expectations for incremental policies. With the continuous rise of the stock market and the accumulation of profit - making effects, the equity index is expected to remain strong under the boost of liquidity [1] Group 3: Treasury Bond Analysis - Bond market sentiment remained fragile last week, with more significant adjustments in long - term bonds. Domestic economic data was still mixed, but market optimism continued, and expectations for additional stimulus policies remained. The central bank's net injection in the open market kept the money market stable, but the overall cost of funds increased. The market's expectations for monetary policy easing turned cautious, and the bond market faced adjustment pressure [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range. The US - Russia summit over the weekend did not reach an agreement, but it may have released positive signals, which is marginally beneficial to global risk appetite. There is currently insufficient upward momentum for gold prices [3] - Silver remains in a bullish pattern. The confidence in a "soft landing" of the US economy is still significantly higher than that of a "recession." Although the expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed in September has cooled, an interest rate cut within the year is still highly likely, and the direction of US fiscal policy easing is clear. Hold short - put options on the silver 10 - contract and long positions in silver [3] Group 5: Non - ferrous Metals Analysis - Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Economic data is still mixed, but expectations for additional policies remain optimistic. The impact of tariffs has weakened, and there are still differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper mines in Chile is resuming, but the tight supply situation at the mine end has not improved. The demand during the peak season and policy expectations still support consumption, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so new driving forces are needed for further upward movement [3] - The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact. Alumina prices fluctuated last week, and the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum prices slightly increased. The market's expectations for additional policies remain optimistic, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. The expansion of the US aluminum tariff scope has limited impact, and the current US aluminum production capacity is limited, with a high degree of import dependence. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate, while Shanghai aluminum has clear support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in demand [3] - Nickel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in a range. The supply of nickel mines in Indonesia is tight, while the supply from the Philippines has increased seasonally. The smelting sector is in an oversupply situation, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is still in the off - season. The demand for nickel from ternary batteries is limited by its weak market share. Although there are some supporting factors such as macro - policy expectations and a weak US dollar index, there is no clear directional driving force [3] Group 6: Lithium and Silicon Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The suspension of the Jiaxiaowo mine has been realized, and the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly. The production of the smelting sector has increased, and the inventory pressure is still high. However, considering the continuous increase in futures trading volume and open interest, the market sentiment is still positive. Attention should be paid to the production situation of mines in Yichun [4] - Industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in an oscillating pattern. For industrial silicon, supply and demand have both increased, and the inventory has remained stable, with no strong driving force. The manufacturers' price - holding sentiment is strong, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand. For polycrystalline silicon, although some enterprises in Xinjiang have stopped production, the overall supply is still increasing. Downstream component prices have risen, and there are still expectations for further price increases. Policy - related positive sentiment has re - emerged, and overall prices are strongly supported [4] Group 7: Steel and Iron Ore Analysis - Steel prices are expected to oscillate. For rebar, the long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the fundamentals have shown signs of weakening. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may affect blast furnace production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region, but the current steel mill profits are acceptable, which may stimulate the production enthusiasm of non - restricted areas. Rebar inventory has begun to accumulate rapidly. Without policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is a more certain direction after the end of the military parade restrictions. Rebar futures prices are expected to continue to operate in the range of [3150, 3300] [4] - For hot - rolled coils, the fundamentals and policy are divergent. The long - term logic of anti - involution is difficult to disprove, but the steel fundamentals have weakened marginally. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils and other plate products are relatively better than those of construction steel. Environmental protection restrictions before the military parade may ease the inventory accumulation pressure of plate products. However, if there are no strict policies to reduce crude steel production, the contraction of steel - making profits is still a likely direction. Hot - rolled coil futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [3350, 3500] [4] - Iron ore prices are expected to turn to range - bound operation. The environmental protection restrictions in the north before the military parade may affect iron ore demand, but the relatively high steel mill profits and the certain复产 direction after the end of the restrictions limit the downward space of iron ore prices. Iron ore futures prices are expected to operate in the range of [750, 810] for the 01 contract [4][5] Group 8: Coal and Coke Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate. The exchange has strengthened risk - control measures in the futures market, and the coking coal futures price fluctuations have increased. The fundamentals are improving, but the rate of inventory reduction at the mine end has slowed down, and the upward trend of coal prices is expected to slow down. Attention should be paid to the results of the energy bureau's inspection of coal mine production and the proportion of expected shutdown mines [5] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate. After six rounds of price increases, the coking profit has been repaired, and the daily production of coke has increased slightly. The impact of production restrictions on Shandong coking enterprises has not yet appeared, and the current fundamentals of coke show a double - increase pattern. However, environmental protection restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region in the second half of the month are expected to affect both supply and demand [5] Group 9: Chemical Products Analysis - Oil prices are in a bearish pattern. Geopolitical negotiations between the US and Russia may help promote the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Major institutions have significantly raised their forecasts for supply surpluses, and oil prices are expected to remain weak [5] - Methanol prices are in a bearish pattern. The overseas methanol plant operating rate has remained at 72%. The spot price of methanol in East China has fallen due to increased arrivals. The futures 09 contract has accelerated its decline, and the basis has returned to a reasonable level. If the planned restart of maintenance devices goes smoothly, production will increase significantly, but there are still new maintenance plans. Wait for the price to stabilize before selling put options or taking long positions [6] - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate. After the end of the centralized maintenance period, polyolefin production has returned to a high level, and demand is about to enter the peak season. There are no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. If there are no extreme movements in coal or oil prices, polyolefin futures are expected to continue to oscillate. After the release of oil - related negative news this week, sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options. The spread between L and PP is expected to further widen from September to October [6] Group 10: Agricultural Products Analysis - Cotton prices are expected to have limited upward space in the short term. The USDA report has reduced the production forecast for the 2025/26 season, which has supported cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton market is still in the off - season, and there is no obvious improvement in yarn mill orders. The pre - hedging orders of ginneries under the expectation of a bumper harvest may put pressure on the market, and the peak - season expectation from September to October has not yet been reflected [6] - Rubber prices are cautiously bullish. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased, which has dragged down production line operations, but they are still at a relatively high level. The all - steel tire inventory has decreased smoothly, and production enthusiasm is high. The demand for rubber is expected to improve marginally. Although the rubber - tapping season has entered the production - increasing period, the raw material supply has not increased as expected, and the purchase price has slightly increased. The supply - demand structure of natural rubber has continued to improve, and the port inventory has decreased rapidly, providing support for rubber prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its Q2 holdings report, revealing a reduction in Apple and Bank of America shares, while also unveiling new investments in healthcare, steel, and real estate sectors [2][5]. Group 1: New Investments - Berkshire initiated positions in six new stocks during Q2, including UnitedHealth (UNH), Nucor Steel (NUE), Lennar (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), and Allegion (ALLE) [2][6]. - The total market value of these new positions at the end of Q2 was approximately $3.65 billion [6]. Group 2: Reduction in Holdings - In Q2, Berkshire reduced its stake in Apple by 20 million shares, a decrease of about 6.67%, while still maintaining it as the largest holding [9]. - Additionally, Berkshire sold over 26.3 million shares of Bank of America, representing a reduction of approximately 4.17% [9]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of new positions, stocks like UnitedHealth and Nucor Steel saw significant after-hours gains, with increases exceeding 8% [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The new investments are viewed as defensive positions with potential for valuation recovery, aligning with Buffett's investment philosophy of seeking companies with a "moat" [7].

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its Q2 holdings report, revealing a reduction in its stake in Apple and the unveiling of a "mystery holding" [1] - The company reduced its Apple shares by 20 million, approximately 6.67%, while still maintaining it as its largest holding [1] - Additionally, Berkshire sold 26.3 million shares of Bank of America, a reduction of about 4.17% [1] New Investments - Berkshire initiated positions in six new stocks across various sectors, including healthcare, steel, and real estate, with a total market value of approximately $3.65 billion at the end of the quarter [2] - Notable new purchases include over 5 million shares of UnitedHealth (valued at about $1.57 billion), over 6.6 million shares of Nucor Steel (valued at about $860 million), and over 700,000 shares of Lennar (valued at about $780 million) [2] - The new investments are considered defensive plays with potential for valuation recovery, aligning with Buffett's "moat" investment philosophy [2] Increased Holdings - In Q2, Berkshire increased its stake in Chevron by approximately 3.45 million shares and added to its positions in Constellation Brands (about 1.39 million shares) and Pool Corporation (nearly 2 million shares) [2] - The company also made slight increases in its holdings in aerospace company Heico and Domino's Pizza [2] Financial Performance - Berkshire's Q2 net profit for 2025 was reported at $12.37 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 59.24% [3]

Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for the eighth consecutive day, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reaching 21,752.10 billion yuan, an increase of 2,700.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3][16] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.62%[3][16] - A total of 2,733 stocks rose while 2,458 stocks fell across the market[3][16] Sector and Style Analysis - The performance ranking of indices was: Stability > Cyclicals > Consumption > Neutral > Financials > Growth[3][21] - Among the 30 first-level industries, the top performers were Construction (1.38%), Steel (1.26%), and Non-ferrous Metals (1.19%), while the laggards included Computers (-2.13%), Electronics (-1.22%), and Media (-1.03%)[3][21] Fund Flow - On August 13, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 275 million yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 107.25 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see a net inflow of 220.48 billion yuan[4][25] - The trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF increased significantly, with changes of +3.82 billion yuan and +11.91 billion yuan respectively[4][30] Global Market Trends - On August 13, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.58% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.30%[5][34] - The US stock market indices generally rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.10% and the S&P 500 by 1.13%[6][34]