2026 年 01 月 05 日 人民币与港股，谁是谁的"影子"？ 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 汇率双周报系列之七 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 董易 A0230519110003 dongyi@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 王茂宇 A0230521120001 wangmy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李欣越 A0230524080004 lixy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2016 年以来，港股与人民币的正相关关系较为显著；然而，近期人民币快速升值，港股却一度 "踟蹰不前"。股汇联动背后的逻辑、谁是谁的"影子"、未来可能的演绎？供 ...

渣打北亚区投资总监郑子丰认为，过去几周港股业绩表现不算理想，为港股带来下行压力，预期恒指在 25000关企稳。他期望外围可以扭转大市负面情绪，随着美联储12月降息机率上升，若美联储确实降 息，未来投资情绪会有所改善，利好港股。此外，12月中央经济工作会议为长期政策部署，市场已适度 反映，若出现短期利好措施，将为大市带来短暂利好。 展望明年，他指内地明年3月的两会固然重要， 但也看全球政策导向，包括美国随劳动力出现恶化迹象、美国总统特朗普于中期选举前或会出台更多刺 激政策。该行对恒指未来12个月目标是29000点至30000点，主因预期盈利前景将在低基数下反弹。他继 续看好AI相关股，包括参与AI投资的平台，料可利用AI及大数据可接触到更大的客群，提升企业效 益，建议趁整固时买入，对聚焦于传统外卖的企业则审慎。 ...

编辑 ｜ 钉钉 财报显示，三季度营收570.1亿美元（预期550.9亿美元），净利润总额达319.1亿美元，较上年同期 的193.1亿美元（稀释后每股0.78美元）增长65%。调整后每股收益1.30美元（预期1.28美元）。 11月20日，美股大型科技股盘前普涨，英伟达涨超5%，特斯拉、谷歌A涨2%，Meta、亚马逊、微软 涨1%，苹果涨0.3%。 消息面上， 当地时间周三盘后，英伟达发布第三财季财报，营收和每股收益均超出华尔街预期，同时 给出的四季度营收指引表现强劲。 ...

Core Insights - International investors increased their holdings in Chinese stocks during the third quarter of 2023, with the allocation reaching 1.1%, the highest level since the first quarter of 2023 [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Global, emerging market, and Asian investors slightly raised their positions in Chinese stocks in Q3 2023 [1] - The top 40 global investment institutions reported an increase in their Chinese stock holdings [1] - The healthcare, insurance, energy, materials, and internet sectors saw the most significant increases in investment from international investors [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - Approximately 800 actively managed foreign funds tracking Chinese stocks held a total of $270 billion in Chinese equities [1] - By Q3 2025, these funds reduced their underweight position in Chinese stocks by 30 basis points, reaching the lowest underweight level since Q4 2022 [1] - The number of funds not holding any Chinese stocks decreased from 167 in Q2 2025 to 145 in Q3 2025, with a total asset management scale of $212 billion [1] Group 3: Capital Inflows - Emerging markets outside of China also experienced some capital inflows during Q3 2023 [1] - The southbound capital flow through the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect reached $56 billion in Q3 2023, maintaining the record levels seen in Q1 2023, with all sectors recording net inflows [1]

Core Insights - In October, US stock markets closed positively with all three major indices rising: Nasdaq up 0.61% and a cumulative increase of 4.7% for the month, S&P 500 up 0.26% with a 2.27% monthly gain, and Dow Jones up 0.09% with a 2.51% increase for the month [1] Market Performance - Nasdaq achieved a seven-month consecutive increase, while both Dow Jones and S&P 500 recorded six consecutive months of gains [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 0.53% but experienced a cumulative decline of 4.19% in October, ending a previous five-month winning streak [1] Notable Stock Movements - Micron Technology saw a significant rise of 33.82%, marking its third consecutive month of gains - Alphabet's Class A shares (Google A) increased by 15.67%, continuing a seven-month upward trend - Broadcom rose by 12.04%, also achieving a seventh consecutive month of growth - Amazon increased by 11.23%, Nvidia by 8.53%, TSMC by 7.57%, and Apple by 6.18%, with Apple experiencing its fifth consecutive month of gains - Tesla rose by 2.66%, marking its third consecutive month of increase - Microsoft saw a slight decline of 0.03%, while Meta Platforms dropped by 11.71%, marking its third consecutive month of decline [1] Top Market Capitalization - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the US stock market are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet Class C, Alphabet Class A, Amazon, Broadcom, Meta, TSMC, and Tesla [1]

Group 1 - The article outlines the stages of the IPO due diligence process, emphasizing the importance of thorough preparation and compliance with financial, legal, and business standards [32] - The initial preparation phase involves defining objectives, assembling a team, and establishing a plan for the due diligence process [2][3] - The selection of intermediary institutions is crucial, with companies choosing sponsors, law firms, accounting firms, and evaluation agencies based on their business type and industry characteristics [3] Group 2 - The comprehensive due diligence phase lasts 3 to 6 months and includes written verification, on-site interviews, and third-party validation to assess business, financial, legal, and industry dimensions [6] - Business due diligence focuses on verifying the authenticity, sustainability, and core competitiveness of the company's operations, ensuring alignment with the intended listing segment [7] - Financial due diligence, led by accounting firms, verifies the authenticity of financial statements and compliance with accounting standards and listing financial metrics [12] Group 3 - Legal due diligence, conducted by law firms, ensures the legality and compliance of the company's structure, asset ownership, and major legal risks [17] - The article highlights the importance of addressing issues identified during the due diligence process, with companies and intermediaries collaborating to develop rectification plans [25] - The preparation of listing application materials occurs after rectification, including the prospectus, audit report, legal opinion, and sponsor's work report [28] Group 4 - The article discusses the feedback and supplementary due diligence phase, where regulatory bodies provide feedback on submitted documents, requiring intermediaries to address inquiries [29][30] - The final stage involves the issuance and listing of shares, with ongoing supervision by sponsors to ensure compliance and prevent market manipulation [31] - The overall process is described as a closed-loop of "identifying issues - resolving issues - proving compliance," highlighting the need for independent verification by professional institutions [32]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are lower, with Dow futures dropping over 200 points on Friday [1] Company-Specific Movements - Bitfarms Ltd (NASDAQ:BITF) shares fell 9.5% to $4.78 in pre-market trading after announcing the pricing of upsized $500 million convertible senior notes [1] - American Battery Technology Co (NASDAQ:ABAT) shares tumbled 19.8% to $4.55 in pre-market trading, following a 37% decline on Thursday due to the termination of a Department of Energy grant [3] - HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd (NASDAQ:HIVE) shares dipped 18.2% to $4.78 in pre-market trading after a 14% decline on Thursday [3] - Standard Lithium Ltd (NYSE:SLI) shares declined 17.3% to $4.45 in pre-market trading after pricing a $130 million underwritten public offering [3] - Almonty Industries Inc (NASDAQ:ALM) slipped 16.4% to $7.11 in pre-market trading after a 12% dip on Thursday [3] - Mesoblast Ltd (NASDAQ:MESO) declined 13.7% to $15.63 in pre-market trading [3] - Jumia Technologies AG – ADR (NYSE:JMIA) shares fell 13.2% to $10.31 in pre-market trading [3] - Terawulf Inc (NASDAQ:WULF) shares fell 13.1% to $12.05 after reporting the pricing of $3.2 billion of senior secured notes [3] - Diginex Ltd (NASDAQ:DGNX) shares slipped 13.1% to $14.45 after an 18% decline on Thursday [3] - Aeluma Inc (NASDAQ:ALMU) shares fell 12.1% to $16.46 in pre-market trading [3] - Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE:CODI) declined 11.7% to $6.60 in pre-market trading after an 8% gain on Thursday [3] - Integra Resources Corp (NYSE:ITRG) fell 11.3% to $2.89 in pre-market trading [3] - Forward Industries Inc (NASDAQ:FORD) fell 10.8% to $22.00 in pre-market trading [3] - Bruker Corp (NASDAQ:BRKR) declined 10.3% to $34.25 in pre-market trading [3] - Inter & Co Inc (NASDAQ:INTR) fell 10% to $8.04 in pre-market trading [3] - Hut 8 Corp (NASDAQ:HUT) fell 8.5% to $44.59 after a 10% dip on Thursday [3] - Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ:BTDR) fell 8.2% to $23.75 in pre-market trading [3] - CleanSpark Inc (NASDAQ:CLSK) fell 7.5% to $18.49 in pre-market trading [3] - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:KTOS) fell 5.3% to $83.96 in pre-market trading [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a new understanding of the equity risk premium (ERP), suggesting that it is significantly influenced by short-term growth expectations, particularly the nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms [1][2]. - The analysis identifies a strong correlation between the Hang Seng Index's ERP and the short-term growth rate of China's nominal GDP, with a correlation coefficient of -0.8, indicating that predicting ERP is effectively predicting short-term growth [2][4]. - The report outlines three phases of the current bull market in Hong Kong stocks, driven by factors such as the recovery of US dollar liquidity, changes in domestic policy, and expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the US government [3][4]. Summary by Sections Risk Premium: A Short-Term Growth Indicator - The report revisits the concept of ERP, previously viewed as a stable emotional indicator, and suggests that recent market conditions have led to a re-evaluation of its significance [1][14]. - It highlights that the ERP has broken historical lower limits, particularly in the context of the Hang Seng Index, which reflects a shift in nominal growth expectations [1][19]. Direct Derivation of Short-Term Growth - The report breaks down China's nominal GDP growth into three components: real GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate changes, emphasizing the importance of these factors in predicting short-term growth [45][46]. - It notes that while real GDP growth is a primary driver, inflation and exchange rate fluctuations have become increasingly significant in recent years [46][51]. Reconstruction of Short-Term Growth Framework - The report proposes a new framework for predicting short-term growth by focusing on the relationship between China's real GDP and the value of the US dollar, suggesting that these factors are more relevant than previously considered [69][75]. - It concludes that the value of Chinese assets in USD terms is primarily determined by China's real GDP and the ratio of US dollar supply to US real GDP, simplifying the predictive model for nominal GDP growth [75].

Core Insights - The second ESG China Yangtze River Delta Corporate Social Responsibility Conference was held in Changzhou, marking a new starting point for promoting ESG from "point breakthroughs" to "systematic deep cultivation" in the region [1] - The Jiangsu Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the integration of social responsibility into corporate strategy and decision-making processes, aiming for higher quality development and greater comprehensive value creation [1] - The "Yangtze River Delta ESG Action Report (2025)" was released, identifying 100 leading companies in ESG practices within the region, including notable firms like Geely Automobile and Alibaba [2] Group 1 - The conference highlighted the importance of collaboration among state-owned enterprises, cities, and supply chains to enhance ESG practices and drive modernization in China [1] - The report evaluated 307 listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta, selecting those with strong ESG governance and practices for the "China ESG Listed Companies Yangtze River Delta Pioneer 100 (2025)" index [2] - Additional blue papers on social responsibility were published for Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces, showcasing the progress and achievements of state-owned enterprises in fulfilling social responsibilities [3] Group 2 - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed by 11 organizations to leverage their strengths in implementing national carbon neutrality strategies and to create an integrated path for ESG development in Changzhou [4] - The collaboration aims to establish Changzhou as a hub for ESG industry development in the Yangtze River Delta, providing a model for local ESG transformation across the country [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and trends of various ETFs, highlighting the sectors that are currently attracting capital inflows and those experiencing outflows [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The article notes that the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have seen long-term market temperature rates of 94.89%, 82.11%, and 83.32% respectively over the past decade [1]. - The short-term sector rotation shows positive performance in coal (+1.05%), building materials (+1.97%), and non-ferrous metals (+1.19%), while sectors like non-bank financials and social services have seen declines of -1.41% and -1.94% respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - The top three sectors for capital inflows are transportation (¥7.04 billion), media (¥5.45 billion), and environmental protection (¥3.36 billion) [1]. - Conversely, the sectors with the largest capital outflows include machinery (-¥9.03 billion) and equipment (-¥7.37 billion) [1]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The real estate ETF has shown a 6.93% increase, while the green energy ETF has increased by 21.53% [2]. - The performance of the AI-related ETFs is highlighted, with the light module sector showing resilience and demand driven by AI applications [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The article emphasizes that the AI-driven computing expansion cycle is far from over, with strong demand for light modules indicating a stable fundamental outlook for the industry [4]. - The internet sector is experiencing a valuation reassessment due to policy shifts and new AI narratives, suggesting potential recovery signals [4].