2025年，即时零售的"东风"依旧猛烈，市场规模逼近万亿大关，"餐饮+非餐"品类单量均刷新了历史纪录，验证即 时零售的天花板远未见顶；另一方面，零售供给侧的变革，引发新一轮"外卖大战"，如何充分链接平台、商家和 消费者，寻找实现多赢的平衡点，成为即时配送行业贯穿全年的核心主题。 也是在这一年，顺丰同城作为行业内稀缺的全场景第三方即配平台，价值定位更加清晰：在物流基础设施建设方 面，持续深耕全场景服务，为"万物到家"带来更多确定性；在差异化定位上，持续加强全渠道整合能力，向商 家、平台和消费者输出专业、中立、高质量的履约服务。同时结合技术驱动效率体验、深化生态协同等一系列措 施，交出了一份高质量的增长答卷，推动即时零售迈入流量多极化下高效与品质并重的新阶段。 借助"餐饮+非餐"同步发展态势，支撑新消费升级演进 11月25日商务部研究院发布的《即时零售行业发展报告(2025)》指出，2026年我国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元。 当前，即时零售"餐饮+非餐"同步发展的态势凸显。一方面，餐饮作为外卖大战的核心引流品，单量节节攀升， 再叠加消费者日益高涨的节假日消费效应，极其考验即时配送基础设施的高峰期弹性支撑能力；另一 ...

Core Insights - Keeta, a delivery platform supported by Meituan, has achieved nationwide coverage across all seven emirates of the UAE, marking a significant milestone in its regional expansion [1] - The company attracts thousands of local and international dining brands through a technology-driven approach and transparent collaboration mechanisms, enhancing operational efficiency for small and medium-sized restaurants [1] - Keeta plans to continue focusing on service reliability, user experience, and merchant empowerment, actively participating in the development of the UAE's food and digital economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "battle of the giants" in the food delivery sector has sparked interest, but it essentially ignites a new journey for instant retail, termed "everything to home" [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Development - Instant retail is seen as a new blue ocean with significant growth potential, characterized by intense competition for market share and the activation of traffic through near and far-field collaboration [2] - The narrow instant retail market in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The online food delivery market in China is also expected to grow, with a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [2] Group 2: Instant Delivery Demand - The demand for instant delivery is rapidly increasing, with the order volume in China's instant delivery sector expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is anticipated to reach 100.84 billion orders, with an estimated annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 3: SF Express's Position - SF Express is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3] - The company has shown continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margin increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margin rising from -36.4% to 0.93% during the same period [3] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - The revenue and profit growth of SF Express is driven by revenue expansion and cost efficiency through scale and refined management [3] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 230 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [4] - The target price for SF Express is set at 18.1 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 64% based on a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for the adjusted net profit in 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The instant delivery industry is in a high growth phase, with SF Express City (09699) strengthening its competitive edge as an independent third-party delivery leader, expected to show higher growth potential under the new journey of instant retail [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Potential - Instant retail has significant development potential, emerging as a new battleground for major players [1] - The market for narrow instant retail in China (excluding food delivery) is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.15%, and a CAGR of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [1] - The online food delivery market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [1] - E-commerce giants are competing around the "30-minute living circle," aiming to activate traffic through both near-field and far-field synergies [1] Group 2: Growth in Instant Delivery Demand - The demand for instant delivery is driven by the increasing richness of product supply and consumer demand for "minute-level" fulfillment, with the order volume in China's instant delivery industry expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The average annual growth rate from 2019 to 2024 for the instant delivery industry is projected to be 20.3% [2] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is expected to reach 100.84 billion orders, with an estimated annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [2] Group 3: Profitability Improvement - SF Express City is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3] - The company benefits from its independent status, allowing it to match new demand more effectively [3] - SF Express's advantages include high quality, high pricing, and peak avoidance [3] Group 4: Internal and External Growth Drivers - The internal growth driver is the empowerment from SF Holdings (002352), which drives high growth in internal orders [4] - The external growth driver includes benefiting from the new journey of instant retail, with revenue from merchants accounting for 73% of local delivery services in 2024, increasing to 77% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The service volume directed at consumers is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2021 to 2024 [4] - Investments in White Rhino and autonomous vehicles are expected to reduce costs and increase asset value [4] Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 230 million, 460 million, and 710 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [4] - The expected EPS for the same period is 0.25, 0.50, and 0.77 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 40, 20, and 13 times [4] - The target price is set at 18.1 HKD, corresponding to a market value of 16.6 billion HKD, with a potential upside of 64% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The instant delivery industry is in a high growth phase, with SF Express (09699) strengthening its competitive edge as an independent third-party delivery leader, expected to show higher growth potential in the new journey of instant retail [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Market Potential - Instant retail has immense development potential, emerging as a new battleground for major players [2] - The market for narrow instant retail (excluding food delivery) in China is projected to reach 781 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 20.15% year-on-year, with a CAGR of 50% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The online food delivery market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024 [2] - E-commerce giants are competing around the "30-minute living circle," aiming to activate traffic through both near-field and far-field synergies [2] Group 2: Growth in Instant Delivery Demand - The order volume in China's instant delivery sector is expected to reach approximately 48.28 billion orders in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a CAGR of 20.3% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - By 2030, the nationwide instant delivery order volume is projected to reach 100.84 billion orders, maintaining an annual growth rate of 13.1% from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Instant delivery platforms primarily utilize a "three-track parallel" model for capacity organization: crowdsourcing, self-operated, and labor dispatch, with crowdsourcing becoming the mainstream choice due to its lightweight asset structure [3] Group 3: SF Express's Profitability Improvement - SF Express is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, aiming to become the "first brand in new consumption delivery" by covering four major scenarios: food delivery, local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [4] - The company benefits from its independent status, allowing it to match new demand effectively [4] - Profit forecasts for SF Express indicate a projected net profit of 230 million, 460 million, and 710 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 73%, 100%, and 55% respectively [5] Group 4: Internal and External Synergies - Internal synergies are driven by the ecosystem of SF Holdings, enhancing internal business growth [5] - External synergies include benefiting from the new journey of instant retail, with revenue from merchants accounting for 73% of local delivery services in 2024, increasing to 77% in the first half of 2025 [5] - The company is investing in autonomous vehicles to reduce costs and enhance asset value [5] Group 5: Valuation and Target Price - The target price for SF Express is set at 18.1 HKD, with a projected market capitalization of 16.6 billion HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for adjusted net profit in 2026 [5] - The current price offers a potential upside of 64% from the target price, with a "recommended" rating for the first coverage [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].

Core Viewpoint - SF Express City has launched the second part of a rider-themed short drama series titled "The Day the System Took Effect, I Turned the World Upside Down" in collaboration with Changsha Yunshe Cultural Media Co., Ltd, highlighting the lives of delivery riders and enhancing public understanding of this new employment group [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - SF Express City is the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, covering four major scenarios: food delivery, urban retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [3]. - The collaboration with Changsha Yunshe, known for producing high-viewership short dramas, aims to leverage their expertise in content planning and production [3]. Group 2: Content and Impact - The first part of the series was the first short drama in China featuring delivery riders as protagonists, achieving over 10 million views on WeChat Video Account and generating widespread discussion on social media [3]. - The second part integrates SF Express City's deep understanding of the rider community with Changsha Yunshe's production expertise, aiming to create relatable rider characters and convey a message of sincerity and kindness [3]. - The increasing attention on delivery riders in artistic works reflects a growing public interest in their lifestyles and spirit, with multiple platforms releasing similar short dramas this year [3].

中央经济工作会议明确将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"作为明年经济工作首要任务，生活服务消费成为激活内需的重要抓手。在此背景下，商务部等 多部门密集出台政策，支持即时配送行业发展，推动线上线下融合创新。抖送同城配送紧跟政策导向，以数字化转型为核心，优化服务供给，激活生活服务 消费潜能，助力构建强大国内市场。 政策响应：落实行业导向 推动线上线下融合 今年11月，商务部等5部门发布《城市商业提质行动方案》，明确提出发展"门店下单+即时配送""平台下单+门店配送"等模式，推动线上线下融合发展。抖 送同城配送积极落实政策要求，与本地实体门店深度合作，构建"店仓一体"的配送网络，让实体门店的服务半径从周边几百米延伸至数公里。 针对社区便利店、生鲜超市等高频消费场景，抖送协助商家完成数字化改造，搭建线上接单平台，实现订单实时同步、库存精准管理。消费者通过抖送APP 下单后，平台就近匹配门店发货，最快15分钟即可送达，既提升了消费者的购物体验，又为实体门店带来新增量。数据显示，合作门店接入抖送后，线上订 单占比平均提升25%，营业额显著增长。 在政策支持下，抖送还推动"即时零售+冷链配送"模式创新，与生鲜商家、农产品产 ...

责任编辑：王许宁 印度即时配送公司Zepto周一表示，已通过保密途径提交首次公开募股申请，规模达1100亿卢比（约 12.2亿美元），此举或将成为该国2026年最受期待的上市交易之一。 印度即时配送企业正陷入激烈的市场份额争夺战，随着印度不断增长的城市消费群体日益倾向于为从杂 货到电子产品的各类商品选择"十分钟送达"服务，行业参与者已投入数十亿美元增设网点。 Zepto成立于2021年，提供超过4.5万种商品，竞争对手包括Eternal旗下Blinkit和Swiggy旗下Instamart。 这家总部位于班加罗尔的公司去年10月融资4.5亿美元后估值达70亿美元。 印度即时配送公司Zepto周一表示，已通过保密途径提交首次公开募股申请，规模达1100亿卢比（约 12.2亿美元），此举或将成为该国2026年最受期待的上市交易之一。 印度即时配送企业正陷入激烈的市场份额争夺战，随着印度不断增长的城市消费群体日益倾向于为从杂 货到电子产品的各类商品选择"十分钟送达"服务，行业参与者已投入数十亿美元增设网点。 Zepto成立于2021年，提供超过4.5万种商品，竞争对手包括Eternal旗下Blinkit和Swigg ...

Core Insights - The Hainan province has successfully implemented a pilot program for occupational injury protection for new employment model workers, with over 1 billion orders processed and a total of approximately 24.3 million yuan in benefits paid out [2][3] Group 1: Program Overview - The pilot program for occupational injury protection began on July 1, 2022, with Hainan being one of seven trial provinces [2] - A total of 11 platform companies, including Meituan, Ele.me, and Didi, have been included in the pilot, covering various services such as delivery and transportation [2] - The program has provided coverage for approximately 396,800 new employment model workers [2] Group 2: Payment and Benefits - The payment for occupational injury protection is based on a variable fee structure, with companies contributing between 0.01 yuan to 0.25 yuan per order, calculated monthly [2] - Workers are eligible for benefits such as medical expenses, rehabilitation costs, disability allowances, and living care fees if they suffer injuries while performing platform services [3] - The review process for injury claims has been streamlined, with a standard confirmation time of 30 working days, and expedited processes for minor injuries [3] Group 3: Future Plans - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Hainan aims to expand the coverage of the occupational injury insurance system to include more categories of workers, such as delivery personnel and interns [3]