Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [2] - Report date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Covered option types: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyesters (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and others (rubber) [3] - Overall strategy: Construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and use spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Multiple underlying futures are involved, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 480, down 14 (-2.87%); LPG (PG2511) is 4,313, up 18 (0.42%) [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - Volume and position PCR are calculated for various options. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.59 (-0.07), and the position PCR is 1.07 (-0.02) [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels are provided for different options. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 570, and the support point is 480 [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data is presented for each option. For example, the flat - value implied volatility of crude oil is 44.085, and the weighted implied volatility is 48.59 (4.75) [7] Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options - **Crude oil**: - Fundamental analysis: OPEC+ plans to return 1.66 million barrels per day of production capacity, but the Russia - Ukraine situation causes supply uncertainty. US EIA demand is weak, and the effect of interest - rate cuts needs observation [8] - Market analysis: Since July, it has shown a bearish trend with some rebounds. It is currently in a warming - up market with upper pressure [8] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, position PCR is above 1.00, indicating support below [8] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [8] - **LPG**: - Fundamental analysis: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit is declining. It is expected that capacity utilization will fall below 70% in the peak season [10] - Market analysis: It has shown an oversold - rebound market with upper pressure since July [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, position PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak trend [10] - Strategies: Similar to crude oil, construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - Fundamental analysis: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and pre - holiday downstream stocking has led to inventory reduction [10] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - rebound market with upper pressure since July [10] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is around the historical average, position PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak - oscillating trend [10] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [10] - **Ethylene glycol**: - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and turn to a stocking cycle later [11] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [11] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is below the average, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating strong bearish power [11] - Strategies: Directional strategy - construct a bear - spread put option combination; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - Fundamental analysis: PP inventory pressure is higher than PE. Production and trade inventories are mostly decreasing, but port inventory is increasing [12] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [12] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak trend [12] - Strategies: Spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - Fundamental analysis: Pre - holiday stocking is over, and buying sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in rubber prices [13] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - oscillating market with upper and lower boundaries since July [13] - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to near the average after a sharp rise, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak trend [13] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination [13] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - Fundamental analysis: Domestic PTA weekly production and capacity utilization are decreasing, and social inventory is also decreasing [14] - Market analysis: It has shown a weak - bearish market with upper pressure since July [14] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, position PCR is around 0.70, indicating an oscillating trend [14] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination [14] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic soda**: - Fundamental analysis: The caustic soda market is stable with some fluctuations. Some enterprises have device maintenance, and downstream demand is weak [15] - Market analysis: It has shown a downward - oscillating market with upper pressure recently [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a high level, position PCR is below 0.90, indicating a weak - oscillating trend [15] - Strategies: Directional strategy - construct a bear - spread put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [15] - **Soda ash**: - Fundamental analysis: Factory inventory is decreasing, and inventory available days are also decreasing [15] - Market analysis: It has shown a low - level weak - oscillating market with support below [15] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure [15] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility combination; spot long - hedging strategy - construct a long - collar strategy [15] Urea - related Options - **Urea**: - Fundamental analysis: Enterprise and port inventories are increasing, indicating an oversupply situation [16] - Market analysis: It has shown a low - level weak - oscillating market since July [16] - Option factor research: Implied volatility is fluctuating around the historical average, position PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure [16] - Strategies: Volatility strategy - construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination; spot long - hedging strategy - hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [16]

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly from sellers and using spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - This section presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators of volume and open interest for different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: OPEC plans to increase production, and Russia plans to cut production. The market shows a bearish recovery. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: PDH device maintenance affects supply. The market shows an oversold rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are at high levels. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a bear spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to increase. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a bear spread of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Inventory pressure varies between PE and PP. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Affected by the peak rubber - tapping season, the market is bearish. Option strategies include a neutral - biased call + put option combination [13] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Inventory is rising, but downstream demand is high. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination [13] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Factory inventory is increasing. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory is decreasing. The market shows low - level fluctuations. Option strategies include a short - volatility combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Urea - related Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is increasing, and domestic demand is weak. The market is bearish. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [15] 3.6 Option Charts - Charts for various option varieties, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., are provided, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, PCR indicators, implied volatility, and historical volatility cones [16][34][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated September 19, 2025 [2] - It covers various categories of energy and chemical options, including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Information on the latest price, change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of multiple underlying contracts such as crude oil, liquefied gas, and methanol is provided [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Data on the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties are presented [5] - The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the underlying option market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various option varieties are shown [6] - These are determined based on the strike prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Data on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different option varieties are provided [7] - The at - the - money implied volatility is the arithmetic average of call and put at - the - money option implied volatilities, and the weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy - related Options Crude Oil - Fundamental data shows changes in European ARA weekly gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and naphtha inventories [8] - The market has been weak and bearish since July, with the option implied volatility around the average, and the open interest PCR indicating a sideways market [8] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] Liquefied Gas - Factory and port inventories have changed, and the market has shown a pattern of over - sold rebound [10] - The option implied volatility has dropped to near the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a sideways market [10] - Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol - related Options Methanol - The port has high inventory, and the market has been weak with some rebound recently [10] - The option implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak sideways market [10] - Recommended strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Ethylene Glycol - Terminal loads are stable, and the port has inventory accumulation. The market has been weak [11] - The option implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure [11] - Recommended strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin - related Options Polypropylene - Inventory changes and downstream开工率 have changed. The market has been weak [11] - The option implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weakening market [11] - Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber - related Options Rubber - Social inventories have decreased. The market has shown a pattern of weak sideways movement [12] - The option implied volatility has fluctuated around the average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6 [12] - Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] Polyester - related Options PTA - Downstream loads have increased, and inventory has decreased. The market has been weak and bearish [13] - The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a sideways market [13] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [13] Alkali - related Options Caustic Soda - Factory inventories have decreased. The market has shown a pattern of downward movement with pressure [14] - The option implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak sideways market [14] - Recommended strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Soda Ash - Factory and delivery warehouse inventories have changed. The market has shown a pattern of low - level sideways movement [14] - The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure [14] - Recommended strategies include a short volatility combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Other Options Urea - Enterprise inventories have increased slightly. The market has been in a low - level weak sideways pattern [15] - The option implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure [15] - Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] Group 7: Option Charts - Charts for various option varieties, including price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest PCR, turnover PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, are provided [16][35][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and other segments. The report provides option strategies and suggestions for selected varieties in each segment, including fundamental analysis, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The quantity and position PCR indicators of various energy and chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum positions of call and put options, are presented for each option variety, which are used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlying [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility indicators of various energy and chemical options are provided, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility [7]. 3.5 Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: Based on European ARA weekly data, gasoline and diesel inventories increased, while fuel oil and naphtha inventories decreased. The market showed a bearish trend with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: Factory and port inventories increased. The market showed an oversold rebound with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: The port inventory remained high, but most of the negative factors were priced in. The market showed a weak trend with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal loads remained flat, and port inventory increased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy with put options, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin Options - **Polypropylene**: Production enterprise inventory decreased, while trader and port inventories increased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber Options - **Natural Rubber**: Social inventory decreased. The market showed a weak consolidation trend. It is recommended to construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester Options - **PTA**: Downstream load increased, and social inventory decreased. The market showed a weak bearish trend. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: Factory inventory decreased. The market showed a downward trend with pressure above. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory and delivery warehouse inventories changed, and the market showed a low - level upward trend. It is recommended to construct a short volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - Enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the market showed a weak trend with low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]. 3.6 Option Charts - The report provides price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, position - PCR and turnover - PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts for various energy and chemical options, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [16][37][58]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an early morning strategy report on energy and chemical options dated September 8, 2025, covering various types of energy and chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, etc. [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. are presented [4] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, open interest changes, volume PCR, volume PCR changes, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR changes of various option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The at - the - money strike prices, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of different option varieties are given, indicating the pressure and support levels of the option underlying from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options [6] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of each option variety are shown. The at - the - money implied volatility is the arithmetic average of call and put at - the - money implied volatilities, and the weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Types Energy - related Options Crude Oil - Fundamental factors include short - term geopolitical disturbances, long - term supply - demand negatives, and concerns about employment deterioration and economic pressure after the non - farm payroll data. The market sentiment is bearish. The price has been weak and range - bound since July, with short - term weakness in August and continued weakness in September [8] - Option factors show that the implied volatility fluctuates around the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80 indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure level is 600 and the support level is 450 [8] - Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [8] LPG - The domestic supply is loose, the demand is low, and the market is weak. The price has been falling and is currently in a weak state [10] - The implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.60 indicating strong bearish power, and the pressure level is 5400 and the support level is 4200 [10] - Strategies are similar to crude oil, including a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10] Alcohol - related Options Methanol - The weekly domestic methanol production has increased, and the price has shown a weak trend with some rebounds recently [10] - The implied volatility has decreased and fluctuates below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80 indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure level is 2600 and the support level is 2250 [10] - Strategies include a bearish spread combination strategy for the directional strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [10] Ethylene Glycol - The inventory at the main port in East China has decreased to a new low in 2025. The price has shown a weak trend [11] - The implied volatility fluctuates below the average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60 indicating strong bearish power, and the pressure level is 4600 and the support level is 4400 [11] - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [11] Polyolefin - related Options Polypropylene - The domestic polypropylene maintenance loss has increased. The price has been weak since July [11] - The implied volatility has decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.60 indicating a weak market, and the pressure level is 7300 and the support level is 6900 [11] - Strategies include a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [11] Rubber - related Options Rubber - The operating loads of all - steel and semi - steel tires have decreased. The price has shown a warming - up trend recently [12] - The implied volatility has dropped to around the average after a sharp rise, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure level is 18000 and the support level is 15750 [12] - Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy [12] Polyester - related Options PTA - The开工 rates of polyester products have changed slightly, and the supply - demand relationship has little change. The price of PTA has been weak [12] - The implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level above the average, the open interest PCR is around 0.60 indicating a volatile market, and the pressure level is 5000 and the support level is 4500 [12] - Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy [12] Alkali - related Options Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market was strong in August, but the price has been weak recently [13] - The implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80 indicating a volatile market, and the pressure level is 2800 and the support level is 2400 [13] - Strategies include a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [13] Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash has increased, and the price has been in a low - level volatile state [13] - The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60 indicating strong bearish pressure, and the pressure level is 1640 and the support level is 1160 [13] - Strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [13] Other Options Urea - The supply - demand difference has decreased, and the price has been in a weak and stagnant state [14] - The implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.60 indicating strong bearish pressure, and the pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700 [14] - Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for the volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for the spot long - hedging strategy [14] Group 7: Option Charts - There are various charts for different option varieties such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc., including price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and turnover PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and option pressure and support level charts [15][34][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [3] - Rubber: Oscillating [5] - Methanol: Oscillating, with a bias towards strength [5] - Polyolefins: Oscillating [6] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating, with a bias towards weakness [6] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical commodities on September 2, 2025. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand dynamics, and cost - end fluctuations to provide views on price trends for each commodity. For example, due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and the Russia - Ukraine situation, the oil market's geopolitical pricing may rise again, and oil prices can be considered from a rebound perspective [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Monday, Brent's new November contract rose 0.67 dollars to 68.15 dollars per barrel, a 0.99% increase. SC2510 closed at 488.9 yuan per barrel, up 5.3 yuan or 1.10%. Geopolitical factors such as the possible suspension of diplomatic efforts and the Red Sea missile incident may lead to a rebound in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2510) rose 0.25% to 2832 yuan per ton, while the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2511) fell 0.49% to 3474 yuan per ton. The expected reduction in Western arbitrage cargo inflows in September may boost the fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil, but overall demand for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks significant highlights [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt (BU2510) rose 1% to 3540 yuan per ton. In September, the demand for road construction in the north increases, but the rise in supply in North China and Northeast China may limit price increases. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease, and prices may rise further [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4772 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2601 closed at 4427 yuan per ton, down 0.87%. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume is increasing. TA prices are expected to be supported and oscillate. Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate with a bias towards strength due to supply reduction and demand increase [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) remained unchanged at 15860 yuan per ton, while the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 15 yuan to 12680 yuan per ton. Supply weather is favorable, raw material prices fluctuate slightly, demand is stable domestically and weak overseas, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: Due to the recovery of profits, MTO devices may resume production. In September, supply growth is limited, demand is expected to pick up, and inventory is expected to peak. Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5]. - **Polyolefins**: In September, supply and demand are both strong, inventory is gradually transferred from society to downstream, and fundamentals have few contradictions. Polyolefin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)**: Real - estate construction recovery is weak, and demand for PVC downstream products is limited. With India's higher anti - dumping duties, exports are expected to decline. PVC prices in September are expected to oscillate with a bias towards weakness [6]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. Market News - Trump is considering suspending diplomatic efforts until more flexibility is shown. Europe is trying to persuade Zelensky to wait for better conditions, which may disrupt the progress made since the Russia - US summit. The EU is formulating a plan to deploy multinational forces to Ukraine [10]. - Despite US pressure, Russia remains India's largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 31.4% of India's crude oil imports in July [10]. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents line charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows line charts of the basis of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [27][28][29] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides line charts of spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads**: It presents line charts of spreads between different commodities, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows line charts of production profits for some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [67][68][69] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [73][74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, some varieties are selected to provide option strategies and suggestions. Each option variety's strategy report includes an analysis of the underlying asset's market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2510 is 489, with a price increase of 5 and a price increase percentage of 1.10% [4] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.75 with a change of - 0.01, and the open interest PCR is 0.66 with a change of 0.02 [5] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various option varieties are given. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 600 and the support point is 415 [6] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.095, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.73 with a change of 1.15 [7] 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - Class Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation of crude oil is healthy with OPEC showing a restraint attitude to support prices. The market has been fluctuating, with short - term weakness. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: The domestic supply of LPG is loose, and the demand is low. The market has been in a weak state. Option strategies involve constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.3.2 Alcohol - Class Options - **Methanol**: The import volume of methanol has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The market has been in a downward trend. Option strategies include a bear spread strategy for directional trading, a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is decreasing. The market has been in a wide - range weak fluctuation. Option strategies include a short - volatility strategy for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.3 Polyolefin - Class Options - **Polypropylene**: The inventory of polypropylene has decreased. The market has been in a weak state. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.3.4 Rubber - Class Options - **Rubber**: The capacity utilization rate of rubber tire enterprises has changed. The market has been in a short - term weak state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy [12] 3.3.5 Polyester - Class Options - **PTA**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased, and the downstream load has increased. The market has been in a weak rebound state. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility strategy [12] 3.3.6 Alkali - Class Options - **Caustic Soda**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises has decreased. The market has been in a fluctuating state. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: The inventory of soda ash has decreased. The market has been in a fluctuating state with support at the bottom. Option strategies include a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: The port inventory of urea has increased, and the enterprise inventory is under pressure. The market has been in a low - level fluctuation state. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Variety Market Overview - A table shows the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc. [4] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The table presents the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different option varieties. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market respectively [5] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are shown. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 415 [6] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The table lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different option varieties. The at - the - money implied volatility is the arithmetic average of call and put at - the - money option implied volatilities, and the weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will discuss the next round of production adjustment at the end of the year. Russia will cut production. The crude oil market shows a short - term recovery受阻 market trend. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Gas**: Factory inventory is slightly decreasing, and port inventory is at a high level. The market shows a short - term recovery market trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port and enterprise inventories are rising. The market shows a weak market trend. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to decrease in the short term and then increase. The market shows a weak and wide - range volatile trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PE and PP inventories show different trends. The market shows a weak market trend. Strategies include constructing a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Tire开工 rates show different trends. The market shows a short - term weak market trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Social inventory is decreasing, and downstream load is rising. The market shows a recovery and upward trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Production capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The market shows a volatile market trend. Strategies include constructing a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level. The market shows a volatile market trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Port and enterprise inventories are rising. The market shows a low - level volatile trend. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15] 3.6 Option Charts - There are various charts for different option varieties, including price charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR and trading volume PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts for each option variety such as crude oil, liquefied gas, methanol, etc. [17 - 199]