Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]

Report Title - Port continues to accumulate inventory, methanol runs weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The start - up rate of coal mines has declined slightly. As of July 18, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 69%, and that in Yulin is 46%. Some coal mines have stopped production. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.7 million tons, with weak demand and weak pit - mouth prices [4]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample domestic supply [4]. - On the import side, the start - up rate of international methanol plants has continued to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, and imports are slightly inverted. Except for the fpc plant in Iran, all other plants are operating normally. The start - up rate outside Iran has slightly increased, and the external start - up has rebounded to a new high this year. The prices in the European and American markets have slightly declined, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 370,000 tons in July. Iran has carried out price - cut tenders, and some Indian supplies have flowed to China. US dollar merchants have sold at high prices, leading to an increase in arrivals in Taicang and accelerated inventory accumulation [4]. - On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The start - up rate of MTO plants has increased, but some MTO plants are operating at less than full capacity. The inventory at ports has increased due to more arrivals, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the start - up rate of international plants has slightly increased, most plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has climbed to around 38,000 tons. Imports are gradually recovering, with an estimated import volume of 1.25 million tons in July. With the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has slightly increased. At the same time, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the start - up rate of coal - to - methanol is stable, resulting in ample domestic supply. It is expected that methanol will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the recent strong rise of domestic bulk commodities provides some support [4]. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The core view is a comprehensive analysis of the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of methanol in terms of raw coal, domestic supply, imports, downstream demand, etc., and gives corresponding trading strategies [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 17, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 71.09%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.99 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 75.59%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 66.45%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from July 12 to July 18, 2025, the output of international methanol (excluding China) is 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week. The Apadana plant in Iran has restarted, and the overall operation of other plants in Iran is 70% - 80% [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on July 16, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol in the period is 430,400 tons, including 373,400 tons by foreign vessels and 57,000 tons supplemented by domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 17, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 80.23%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant start - up rate is 86.23%, and the overall start - up of the industry has slightly increased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, remaining the same as last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, slightly decreasing this week. The formaldehyde start - up rate is 45.24%, decreasing from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 70.27% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The inventory of production enterprises is 356,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of July 16, 2025, the total port inventory is 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China has increased by 7,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the northern line is 430 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong is 170 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price in Taicang is 2360 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and the price in the northern line is 1970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that methanol will experience short - term fluctuations. Key factors include the increase in international device operation rates, the resumption of most plants in Iran, the recovery of imports, stable downstream demand, port inventory accumulation, expanded coal - based methanol profits, and a stable domestic supply. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2392 (-23/-0.95%) [3]. - Spot market: Different regions had varying methanol prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2020 yuan/ton, and北线 at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2240 yuan/ton, and Lubei at 2260 yuan/ton. At ports, Taicang was priced at 2420 yuan/ton, and Ningbo at 2480 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From 20250628 - 20250704, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 931,383 tons, an increase of 156,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, a 10.73% increase from the previous week [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mine operation rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest decreased, but demand was weak, and raw coal prices fluctuated. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest were firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operation rate remained high and stable, with a continuous and abundant domestic supply [5]. - Import side: The operation rate of international methanol devices was low, the US dollar price was stable, and imports were slightly inverted. Most Iranian devices were restarted, the non - Iranian operation rate increased slightly, and the external operation rate rebounded to the previous high. The European and American markets declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference fluctuated at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iranian shipments in June were 707,000 tons, and the expected imports in July were 1.3 million tons [5]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the operation rate declined. The operation rate of MTO devices increased. Some MTO devices had sub - full loads, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device, and Phase 2 600,000 - ton/year MTO device [5]. - Inventory: With an increase in imports arriving at ports, port inventories accumulated, and the basis was firm. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated within a narrow range. The expected imports in July were 1.25 million tons, downstream demand was stable, and ports gradually accumulated inventory [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell call options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, influenced by the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,525 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 5.34% increase from the previous week. The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially. In the future, the focus will still be on the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel. If the conflict eases, methanol may fall significantly; if it continues, methanol will remain strong [6][7][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - **Futures Market**: From Monday to Thursday last week, methanol futures rose continuously due to the tense conflict between Israel and Iran. On Friday, there was profit - taking, and the futures fluctuated and consolidated. By Friday afternoon, the methanol weighted closed at 2,525 yuan/ton, up 5.34% from the previous week [14]. - **Spot Market**: Iran's methanol production unexpectedly dropped significantly, leading to a decline in exports. It is expected that the arrival volume in China in July will decrease. In the short term, alternative sources like Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot quickly make up for the shortage. This has stimulated the stocking demand of domestic traders, resulting in a continuous decrease in the inventory of northwest factories. The arbitrage window between the inland and ports has opened, but the overall supply is limited. The port is stronger than the inland due to weak downstream demand [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a 0.76% increase. The number of resumed production devices was more than that of maintenance devices [16]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, the average weekly start - up of the olefin industry decreased. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.53%, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The overall demand for traditional downstream products was weak [18]. - **Inventory**: As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,800 tons, a 9.37% decrease. The port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a 10.09% decrease [21][27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased significantly. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production increased, and the loss of gas - based production narrowed [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of resumed production devices is more than that of maintenance devices. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0763 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.14%, an increase from last week [35]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the olefin industry will continue to decrease. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde are expected to decrease [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 347,600 tons, a continued slight decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][4][38] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The development of the Middle East situation is the main factor influencing methanol's trend. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the expected surplus in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profits of downstream industries and their limited acceptance of high - priced methanol, large - scale maintenance may occur if profits deteriorate further, leading to a re - balance of supply and demand. Given the high uncertainty of geopolitics, methanol may remain highly volatile in the short term [4][38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From June 9th to June 16th, methanol prices rose significantly, mainly due to the Middle East situation. Most methanol plants in Iran are operating at low loads, causing concerns about future shipments from Iran, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices also boosted the energy and chemical sector [4][9][38] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis in East China has increased, and the 09 - 01 spread has also risen. Affected by the Middle East situation and low inventory at East China ports, the spot price in East China has risen significantly, driving up the basis. On June 6th, the basis in East China was 36 yuan/ton, and on June 16th, it was 116 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread increased from - 63 yuan/ton on June 6th to 0 yuan/ton on June 16th [12] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profits have rebounded slightly, and upstream operation remains at a high level. As of June 13th, the FOB price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 618 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 6th, and the FCA price of Datong thermal coal was 535 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Under high - profit conditions, the operating rate of inland coal - based enterprises remains at a historical high. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 48.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.25 percentage points [14] 3.2 Inventory - The Middle East situation may affect future port inventory accumulation. The increase in arrivals from Iran had previously alleviated the low - inventory pressure at ports, and inventory at East China ports began to accumulate in late April. The change in the Middle East situation may affect future inventory accumulation. As of the week of June 12th, the inventory at East China ports was 33.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.08 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82 million tons; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.73 million tons [20] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - Attention should be paid to the possible recurrence of demand negative feedback. Methanol - to - olefins (MTO) is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. Recently, the profits of coastal MTO plants have declined significantly, and the profit of inland MTO plants is also relatively low. If profits further deteriorate, the large - scale shutdown and maintenance of coastal plants in May last year may recur. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 12.34 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.33 percentage points [23] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The operation of traditional downstream industries has rebounded, but profits remain poor. Traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. The operation of traditional downstream industries rebounded last week, mainly contributed by acetic acid and MTBE. However, overall, downstream profits are still poor, and their acceptance of high - priced methanol may be limited [30] 5. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2550 [4][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行，目前处于季节性用电淡季，新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长，电厂日耗低位，港口出货以终端长协为主，市场参与者观望情绪浓厚，降库压力仍存，产地维持正常生产，下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚，天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修，导致开工下滑，但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点，占比70%以上，天然气制开工有明显季节性，焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面，非CTO总量为136,653吨，煤制（不含联醇）为110,000吨，天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].