1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin industry's operating rate will increase. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is -109 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 674733 lots, down 11543 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -107249 lots, up 10590 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 10766, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is -134 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. CFR China Main Port is 259 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. FOB Rotterdam is 276 euros/ton, up 4 euros; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is -63 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas price is 2.76 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.15 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - East China port inventory is 68.7 tons, up 4.5 tons; South China port inventory is 33.48 tons, up 5.13 tons. Methanol import profit is 25.4 yuan/ton, down 16.09 yuan; monthly import volume is 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons. Inland enterprise inventory is 295600 tons, up 1900 tons; methanol enterprise operating rate is 82.4%, up 0.79% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate is 42.05%, up 0.43%; dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.15%, up 1.82%; acetic acid operating rate is 91.06%, up 1.82%; MTBE operating rate is 63.39%, down 3.23%; olefin operating rate is 83.12%, down 0.77%. Methanol - to - olefin disk profit is -1016 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.07%, up 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.61%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.89%, up 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.9%, up 0.49% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory is 107.60 tons, up 5.42 tons; sample production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons, up 1.52 tons, a 5.15% increase; sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 20.74 tons, down 1.20 tons, a 5.47% decrease. As of August 14, domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 84.71%, a -0.41% decrease [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The overall methanol production has a slight increase. The enterprise inventory level has a slight increase. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The olefin industry's operating rate will increase after the restart of the Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin olefin device [3] 3.9 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With increasing supply and stable downstream demand, methanol inventories at ports are accumulating rapidly. Against the backdrop of increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy for methanol trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2391 (-9/-0.38%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 2090 to 2230 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 to 2320 yuan/ton; at ports, prices range from 2270 to 2310 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week (20250818 - 0819), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest was 28,300 tons (2.83 million tons), a decrease of 7,500 tons (0.75 million tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 20.95% [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: Coal - producing areas in the Northwest have seen a significant decline in coal mine operating rates, with a rebound in raw coal prices. Methanol production profits are high and stable, and domestic supply is continuously abundant. Import supply is also increasing, with Iran's production recovering [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, with a decline in operating rates. MTO device operating rates are rising, but some devices have reduced loads or stopped production. Overall, demand is stable [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Methanol Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [3] - Research area: Commodity research - Energy and chemical industry [1][2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [8] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2391, up 6 or 0.25% [4] - Spot market: Various regions had different methanol prices, with production areas ranging from 2090 - 2230 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2230 - 2320 yuan/ton, and ports from 2360 - 2380 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Important News - Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s 690,000 - ton/year methanol - to - olefins plant stopped on July 30, and the restart time is to be tracked [5] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal mine开工率 in the northwest decreased, coal prices rebounded, methanol开工率 was high and stable, and domestic supply was loose [6] - Import side: The US dollar price fell slightly last week, import profit increased, foreign开工率 was high, and Iranian shipments to China increased [6] - Demand side: Traditional downstream entered the off - season, MTO开工率 increased, but some MTO plants had reduced loads or stopped [6] - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [6] - Overall: International装置开工率 was stable, imports recovered, demand was stable, and ports accelerated inventory accumulation. Methanol supply increased, and it was advisable to short at high prices [6] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short at high prices, do not chase short [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell call options [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement in the methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in methanol fundamentals, methanol futures oscillated narrowly. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2430 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous week. The average price of the port methanol market declined, while the inland market rose [12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,845,225 tons, a decrease of 67,900 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 81.61%, a week - on - week drop of 3.55%. The number of newly - overhauled devices exceeded those that resumed production [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall downstream demand was stable. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed mixed trends. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate increased, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons. The port sample inventory was 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous period [20][24]. - **Profit**: Most methanol enterprises' profits declined last week, with only the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol showing a slight increase [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol devices resuming production is expected to exceed those under overhaul. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.8873 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 83.47%, an increase from last week [31]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand is expected to remain stable overall. The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products are expected to change slightly. For example, the olefin industry's开工 rate is expected to decline, while the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to increase [32][35]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 292,300 tons, remaining at a low level. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [35].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：窄幅震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：窄幅震荡 | 供应 | • | 周内中国甲醇产量减少，检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量。数据方面，本周(20250801-0807)中国甲醇产量为1845225吨，较上周减少 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 67900吨，装置产能利用率为81.61%，环比跌3.55%。产量减少主要由于本周期内检修装置增加有关，整体上看，检修损失量远多于恢复增加量。目前统 | | | | 计下期甲醇计划检修装置减少，恢复装置或将增加，因此市场整体供应量或增加。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • • | 烯烃：本周浙江兴兴延续停车，神华宁夏上周短停后恢复运行，青海盐湖负荷降低，新疆恒有重启后低负荷运行，各企 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the impact of the improved domestic macro - face expectations gradually faded, and the fundamentals of methanol improved limitedly. The methanol futures fell and adjusted, closing at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. This week, methanol production is expected to increase, demand may improve slightly but remain weak overall, and inventory may rise. Methanol is likely to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted. The weighted methanol closed at 2,429 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 4.41% from the previous week. The spot price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2,370 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2,380 - 2,490 yuan/ton. The port methanol market was under pressure and prices fell, while the inland market rose [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - From July 25 - 31, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase [16] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the olefin industry's start - up increased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 75.28%, down 4 percentage points from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.33%, remaining flat. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, with an obvious increase in supply. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate was 43.29%, showing an increase [19][21] 2.3 Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a 4.51% decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period, a 5.76% decline. The port sample inventory was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period, an 11.38% increase [23][26] 2.4 Profit - From July 25 - 31, 2025, the weekly average profit of domestic methanol samples was mostly good. The theoretical profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol continued to rise, while natural - gas - based methanol continued to lose money. The weekly average profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia was 153.86 yuan/ton, a 22.84% increase; in Shandong, it was 193.86 yuan/ton, a 12.70% increase; in Shanxi, it was 175.18 yuan/ton, a 3.50% increase. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei was 271 yuan/ton, an 11.07% increase. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest was - 266 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease [28] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol production is expected to be about 1.9465 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.08%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's start - up has room to rise. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 323,300 tons, with a slight reduction from last week. The port inventory is expected to continue to rise, but the impact of weather on the unloading speed needs to be noted [35]

Report Title - Port continues to accumulate inventory, methanol runs weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The start - up rate of coal mines has declined slightly. As of July 18, the start - up rate of coal mines in Ordos is 69%, and that in Yulin is 46%. Some coal mines have stopped production. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.7 million tons, with weak demand and weak pit - mouth prices [4]. - On the supply side, the start - up rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak. The raw coal price fluctuates, and the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous ample domestic supply [4]. - On the import side, the start - up rate of international methanol plants has continued to rise, the US dollar price has slightly decreased, and imports are slightly inverted. Except for the fpc plant in Iran, all other plants are operating normally. The start - up rate outside Iran has slightly increased, and the external start - up has rebounded to a new high this year. The prices in the European and American markets have slightly declined, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 370,000 tons in July. Iran has carried out price - cut tenders, and some Indian supplies have flowed to China. US dollar merchants have sold at high prices, leading to an increase in arrivals in Taicang and accelerated inventory accumulation [4]. - On the demand side, traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the start - up rate has declined. The start - up rate of MTO plants has increased, but some MTO plants are operating at less than full capacity. The inventory at ports has increased due to more arrivals, and the basis is firm; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the start - up rate of international plants has slightly increased, most plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has climbed to around 38,000 tons. Imports are gradually recovering, with an estimated import volume of 1.25 million tons in July. With the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has slightly increased. At the same time, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the start - up rate of coal - to - methanol is stable, resulting in ample domestic supply. It is expected that methanol will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the recent strong rise of domestic bulk commodities provides some support [4]. - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The core view is a comprehensive analysis of the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of methanol in terms of raw coal, domestic supply, imports, downstream demand, etc., and gives corresponding trading strategies [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of July 17, the overall start - up load of domestic methanol plants is 71.09%, a decrease of 1.41 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.99 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load in the northwest region is 75.59%, a decrease of 2.70 percentage points from last week and an increase of 6.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The average start - up load of non - integrated methanol plants is 66.45%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from July 12 to July 18, 2025, the output of international methanol (excluding China) is 1,056,853 tons, an increase of 19,250 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.45%, an increase of 1.32% from last week. The Apadana plant in Iran has restarted, and the overall operation of other plants in Iran is 70% - 80% [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on July 16, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol in the period is 430,400 tons, including 373,400 tons by foreign vessels and 57,000 tons supplemented by domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of July 17, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 80.23%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant start - up rate is 86.23%, and the overall start - up of the industry has slightly increased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, remaining the same as last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, slightly decreasing this week. The formaldehyde start - up rate is 45.24%, decreasing from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 70.27% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The inventory of production enterprises is 356,900 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of July 16, 2025, the total port inventory is 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China has increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China has increased by 7,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 735 yuan/ton. The price difference between the port and the northern line is 430 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the port and northern Shandong is 170 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] 2. Spot Price - The spot price in Taicang is 2360 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and the price in the northern line is 1970 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that methanol will experience short - term fluctuations. Key factors include the increase in international device operation rates, the resumption of most plants in Iran, the recovery of imports, stable downstream demand, port inventory accumulation, expanded coal - based methanol profits, and a stable domestic supply. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2392 (-23/-0.95%) [3]. - Spot market: Different regions had varying methanol prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2020 yuan/ton, and北线 at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, Lunan was priced at 2240 yuan/ton, and Lubei at 2260 yuan/ton. At ports, Taicang was priced at 2420 yuan/ton, and Ningbo at 2480 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From 20250628 - 20250704, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 931,383 tons, an increase of 156,460 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, a 10.73% increase from the previous week [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mine operation rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest decreased, but demand was weak, and raw coal prices fluctuated. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest were firm. The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 700 yuan/ton, and the methanol operation rate remained high and stable, with a continuous and abundant domestic supply [5]. - Import side: The operation rate of international methanol devices was low, the US dollar price was stable, and imports were slightly inverted. Most Iranian devices were restarted, the non - Iranian operation rate increased slightly, and the external operation rate rebounded to the previous high. The European and American markets declined slightly, the China - Europe price difference fluctuated at a low level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iranian shipments in June were 707,000 tons, and the expected imports in July were 1.3 million tons [5]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the operation rate declined. The operation rate of MTO devices increased. Some MTO devices had sub - full loads, such as Xingxing's 690,000 - ton/year MTO device, Nanjing Chengzhi's Phase 1 295,000 - ton/year MTO device, and Phase 2 600,000 - ton/year MTO device [5]. - Inventory: With an increase in imports arriving at ports, port inventories accumulated, and the basis was firm. The inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated within a narrow range. The expected imports in July were 1.25 million tons, downstream demand was stable, and ports gradually accumulated inventory [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Fluctuation [6] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [6] - Options: Sell call options [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the MA2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the inventory of methanol enterprises has rapidly accumulated, and the port inventory has shown narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate has declined, and the operating rate is expected to continue to drop [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2414 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest is 706,992 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,169 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 77,527 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, with no week - on - week change [3] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2005 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 445 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 345 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 US dollars/ton [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.5 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 50.95 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 16.42 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is 12.74 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.46 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.66% [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 7.02%; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 968 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 28 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.98%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06% [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.36%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [3] Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 35.23 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 24.13 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [3] - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 67.37 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons. East China has accumulated inventory, with an increase of 1.35 tons; South China has reduced inventory, with a decrease of 1.03 tons [3] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.25%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.09% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].