Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, influenced by the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,525 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 5.34% increase from the previous week. The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially. In the future, the focus will still be on the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel. If the conflict eases, methanol may fall significantly; if it continues, methanol will remain strong [6][7][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - **Futures Market**: From Monday to Thursday last week, methanol futures rose continuously due to the tense conflict between Israel and Iran. On Friday, there was profit - taking, and the futures fluctuated and consolidated. By Friday afternoon, the methanol weighted closed at 2,525 yuan/ton, up 5.34% from the previous week [14]. - **Spot Market**: Iran's methanol production unexpectedly dropped significantly, leading to a decline in exports. It is expected that the arrival volume in China in July will decrease. In the short term, alternative sources like Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot quickly make up for the shortage. This has stimulated the stocking demand of domestic traders, resulting in a continuous decrease in the inventory of northwest factories. The arbitrage window between the inland and ports has opened, but the overall supply is limited. The port is stronger than the inland due to weak downstream demand [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a 0.76% increase. The number of resumed production devices was more than that of maintenance devices [16]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, the average weekly start - up of the olefin industry decreased. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.53%, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The overall demand for traditional downstream products was weak [18]. - **Inventory**: As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,800 tons, a 9.37% decrease. The port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a 10.09% decrease [21][27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased significantly. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production increased, and the loss of gas - based production narrowed [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of resumed production devices is more than that of maintenance devices. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0763 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.14%, an increase from last week [35]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the olefin industry will continue to decrease. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde are expected to decrease [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 347,600 tons, a continued slight decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][4][38] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The development of the Middle East situation is the main factor influencing methanol's trend. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the expected surplus in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profits of downstream industries and their limited acceptance of high - priced methanol, large - scale maintenance may occur if profits deteriorate further, leading to a re - balance of supply and demand. Given the high uncertainty of geopolitics, methanol may remain highly volatile in the short term [4][38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From June 9th to June 16th, methanol prices rose significantly, mainly due to the Middle East situation. Most methanol plants in Iran are operating at low loads, causing concerns about future shipments from Iran, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices also boosted the energy and chemical sector [4][9][38] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis in East China has increased, and the 09 - 01 spread has also risen. Affected by the Middle East situation and low inventory at East China ports, the spot price in East China has risen significantly, driving up the basis. On June 6th, the basis in East China was 36 yuan/ton, and on June 16th, it was 116 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread increased from - 63 yuan/ton on June 6th to 0 yuan/ton on June 16th [12] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profits have rebounded slightly, and upstream operation remains at a high level. As of June 13th, the FOB price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 618 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 6th, and the FCA price of Datong thermal coal was 535 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Under high - profit conditions, the operating rate of inland coal - based enterprises remains at a historical high. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 48.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.25 percentage points [14] 3.2 Inventory - The Middle East situation may affect future port inventory accumulation. The increase in arrivals from Iran had previously alleviated the low - inventory pressure at ports, and inventory at East China ports began to accumulate in late April. The change in the Middle East situation may affect future inventory accumulation. As of the week of June 12th, the inventory at East China ports was 33.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.08 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82 million tons; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.73 million tons [20] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - Attention should be paid to the possible recurrence of demand negative feedback. Methanol - to - olefins (MTO) is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. Recently, the profits of coastal MTO plants have declined significantly, and the profit of inland MTO plants is also relatively low. If profits further deteriorate, the large - scale shutdown and maintenance of coastal plants in May last year may recur. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 12.34 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.33 percentage points [23] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The operation of traditional downstream industries has rebounded, but profits remain poor. Traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. The operation of traditional downstream industries rebounded last week, mainly contributed by acetic acid and MTBE. However, overall, downstream profits are still poor, and their acceptance of high - priced methanol may be limited [30] 5. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2550 [4][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行，目前处于季节性用电淡季，新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长，电厂日耗低位，港口出货以终端长协为主，市场参与者观望情绪浓厚，降库压力仍存，产地维持正常生产，下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚，天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修，导致开工下滑，但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点，占比70%以上，天然气制开工有明显季节性，焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面，非CTO总量为136,653吨，煤制（不含联醇）为110,000吨，天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and closing flat. The price closed slightly up 0.00% at 14,810 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 195 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the supply pressure in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas increased, but domestic tire enterprises saw an increase in the motivation of operating rate. With both supply and demand increasing, the rubber price maintained a stable and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and slightly closing up. The price closed slightly up 0.09% at 2,239 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 74 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the improvement in the supply - demand structure of the methanol market was limited, the destocking of social inventory might be coming to an end, and the external supply was expected to increase. Considering the potential macro - risks, methanol maintained a weak pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rebounding from an oversold situation, and closing sharply up. The price closed sharply up 2.40% at 460.8 yuan/barrel. Although the US non - farm payroll data and price index showed signs of improvement, leading to an increase in the expected number of Fed rate cuts throughout the year, the US debt crisis in June was approaching, and the "gray rhino" effect might trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. At the same time, OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand was expected to be weak. With bearish factors dominant, the continued rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices was expected to face greater pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat trend. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons, and a significant increase of 210,100 tons compared with 1.6889 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 29.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 7.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 85.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.09%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.63%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 239 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 87 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 572 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 123,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China totaled 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons or 0.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 35,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 55,600 tons compared with 365,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12][14]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 483, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 23 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.36 million barrels per day. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels and a significant decrease of 10.521 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 25.019 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 397.5 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 468,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Since April 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend, and the market's long - buying power has continued to decline. As of April 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 177,209 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 6,254 contracts and a significant increase of 10,622 contracts or 6.38% compared with the March average of 166,587 contracts. At the same time, as of April 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 106,722 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,080 contracts and a significant decrease of 79,918 contracts or 42.82% compared with the March average of 186,640 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,460 yuan/ton | -32 yuan/ton | 2,239 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | +221 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.8 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | -37.2 yuan/barrel | -1.9 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22][25][27][29]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures showed a weak performance. This week, the fundamentals are expected to continue weakening, and methanol futures may remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - By the afternoon close on April 30, methanol weighted closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened, while the sentiment in the port methanol market improved, and the basis within the month strengthened. The price difference between ports and inland areas slightly widened. As of the end of April, the average price in the northern line of Ordos in the northwest was 2,192 yuan/ton, the average price in Taicang, East China was 2,460 yuan/ton, and the average price in Guangdong, South China was 2,497 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, domestic methanol production increased again. The production was 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.97%, a month - on - month increase of 5.77%. Sichuan Daxing had new maintenance, while several enterprises resumed production [14][16]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 57.86%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week, mainly due to a slight increase in the load of some devices [19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 283,400 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 8.54%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,600 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 17.53%. The inventory of sample enterprises in various regions showed different trends, with most regions experiencing a decline [22]. - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 537,400 tons, an increase of 74,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.02%. Ports in various regions showed inventory accumulation [28]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 238.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.80%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was 320.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.00%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was 317.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%; the average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - This week, the fundamentals of methanol still lack substantial positive factors. On the supply side, the number of methanol production enterprises resuming production continues to exceed those under maintenance, and the supply pressure gradually increases. On the demand side, as olefins enter the maintenance season, methanol demand may decrease. The arrival volume of methanol this week is sufficient, and port inventory is likely to continue rising, increasing the supply - side pressure due to imports. However, the current downward pressure on methanol is not large, as enterprise inventory continues to decline, and port inventory is still at a low level. From a macro perspective, the US may intend to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, improving macro expectations, but the tariff issue is far from being resolved, and the macro positive factors are limited. Overall, methanol futures may remain weak [10][36][37].