Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that gold and silver are entering an upward cycle driven by multiple positive factors, particularly influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and changes in the macroeconomic environment [1][3]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Historical Data - Historically, gold tends to rise significantly after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, with an average increase of 6% within 60 days, and up to 14% at its peak. Silver shows an average increase of 4% in the same period [1]. - Morgan Stanley sets a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, driven by the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle, potential weakening of the dollar index, and a possible recovery in jewelry consumption in emerging markets [3]. - For silver, the target price is set at $40.9 per ounce, with analysts expressing caution due to the balance needed between industrial demand and speculative trading [3]. Group 2: Demand and Market Dynamics - Global gold ETF holdings have increased by approximately 440 tons this year, reversing a four-year trend of net outflows, indicating a resurgence in institutional demand for gold [1]. - Silver ETF holdings have also risen by 127 million ounces, although there are warnings about speculative trading potentially leading to excessive price increases [1]. - Despite a decline in India's jewelry demand in Q2, improvements in July's gold import data suggest a potential recovery, supported by anticipated reforms in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) that may enhance consumer purchasing power [3][5]. Group 3: Correlation and Market Factors - The report emphasizes the strong negative correlation between gold and the dollar, suggesting that a continued depreciation of the dollar index would benefit gold prices [5]. - The report highlights the need for investors to monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction, dollar movements, and signs of consumer recovery in the Indian market to better capture structural opportunities in the precious metals market [7].

Group 1 - The stock price of Hunan Silver (002716) closed at 4.6 yuan on August 4, 2025, with an increase of 2.68% and a turnover rate of 5.28% [1] - The trading volume was 1.1676 million shares, with a total transaction amount of 530 million yuan [1] Group 2 - On August 4, the net inflow of main funds was 41.4059 million yuan, while the net inflow of speculative funds was 16.059 million yuan, and retail investors had a net outflow of 57.4649 million yuan [2][4] Group 3 - Hunan Silver's board of directors approved a share repurchase plan on June 23, 2025, with a total repurchase amount not less than 60 million yuan and not exceeding 105.3 million yuan [3] - The repurchase price is capped at 5 yuan per share, and the repurchase period is within 12 months from the board's approval [3] - As of July 31, 2025, the company had repurchased 4 million shares, accounting for approximately 0.14% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 18.262 million yuan [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a share repurchase plan using its own funds and a special loan for the purpose of an employee stock incentive plan, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 60 million and RMB 105.3 million, at a maximum price of RMB 5 per share, within a period of 12 months [1]. Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Progress - As of July 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 4,000,000 shares, accounting for approximately 0.14% of the total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares, with a total transaction amount of RMB 18,262,000, excluding transaction fees [1]. Compliance with Regulations - The company’s share repurchase activities comply with the relevant regulations and guidelines set forth by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the company's own repurchase plan [2]. Restrictions on Repurchase - The company did not repurchase shares during periods that could significantly impact the stock price or as defined by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [3]. Trading Requirements - The company’s share repurchase must adhere to specific trading requirements, including not exceeding the daily trading price limit and avoiding certain trading periods [4]. Future Plans - The company intends to continue the share repurchase plan based on market conditions and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required by law [4].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. has initiated a share repurchase plan to buy back its own shares using self-owned funds and special loans, with a total repurchase amount ranging from RMB 60 million to RMB 105.3 million, at a maximum price of RMB 5 per share, within a period of 12 months [2]. Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Plan - The company approved a share repurchase plan at the board meeting on June 23, 2025, to buy back part of its issued A-shares for an employee stock incentive plan [2]. - The total amount allocated for the repurchase is not less than RMB 60 million and not more than RMB 105.3 million, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 5 per share [2]. Progress of Share Repurchase - As of July 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 4,000,000 shares, accounting for approximately 0.14% of the total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares [2]. - The highest transaction price during the repurchase was RMB 4.65 per share, while the lowest was RMB 4.47 per share, with a total transaction amount of RMB 18,262,000 (excluding transaction fees) [2]. Compliance and Regulations - The share repurchase activities comply with the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the company's repurchase plan [3]. - The company has not repurchased shares during periods that could significantly impact the stock price or during other specified circumstances [4]. - The repurchase transactions adhere to specific requirements, including not exceeding the daily trading price limit and avoiding certain trading periods [5].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. has announced a share repurchase plan using its own funds and special loans, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 60 million and RMB 105.3 million, at a price not exceeding RMB 5 per share, within a period of 12 months [1][2]. Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to repurchase shares for an amount not less than RMB 60 million and not more than RMB 105.3 million, with a maximum price of RMB 5 per share [1]. - The repurchase is intended for a restricted stock incentive plan [1]. First Share Repurchase Execution - On July 30, 2025, the company executed its first share repurchase, acquiring 2,000,000 shares, which is approximately 0.071% of the total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares, at a price of RMB 4.65 per share, totaling RMB 9.3 million (excluding transaction fees) [1]. Compliance and Regulations - The share repurchase adheres to the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the company's repurchase plan [2]. - The company will continue to implement the repurchase plan based on market conditions and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations as required by laws and regulations [2].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].

Summary of Conference Call on Precious Metals Market Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, and their investment dynamics in the current economic environment [1][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen over 30% this year, reaching new highs, which aligns with the optimistic outlook from major institutions at the end of last year [1]. - Historical comparisons are made to past gold price movements, highlighting the unpredictability of market reactions after reaching new highs [2][3]. - The average price center of gold has been increasing over time, making it difficult to envision a significant drop to levels like $1,500 or $1,000 [4]. Economic Scenarios Impacting Gold - Three potential scenarios for the U.S. economy are discussed: 1. A hard landing for the U.S. economy, leading to a prolonged bull market for gold due to aggressive monetary easing [5][6]. 2. A soft landing where the economy does not enter a recession, which could still support gold prices [7]. 3. A scenario where the economy performs well but inflation spikes, potentially leading to a significant correction in gold prices [8][9]. - Current macroeconomic data suggests that the first two scenarios are more likely than the third, which would be unfavorable for gold [9]. Geopolitical and Macro Factors - Geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases have been significant drivers of gold prices, particularly in the last two years [10][29]. - The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar, as well as real interest rates, remains crucial for understanding gold price movements [11][12]. Silver Market Insights - Silver's price movements are often influenced by industrial demand and can act as a supplementary asset in the precious metals market [14]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to its industrial properties and the overall bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [14]. Investment Trends - The current investment environment shows a significant tilt towards precious metals, with substantial inflows into gold ETFs and related products [16]. - The volatility in the market is noted, with historical volatility levels being relatively high, complicating trading strategies [17]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for precious metals, particularly gold, is viewed positively, with expectations that prices will not revert to previous lower ranges [19]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties are seen as supportive factors for gold prices [19]. Risks and Considerations - Short-term risks include potential liquidity issues and the impact of trade tariffs on gold prices, which could lead to temporary corrections [24][25]. - The correlation between gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is noted, with both assets being viewed as alternatives to traditional fiat currencies [22][23]. Additional Important Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to consider both macroeconomic narratives and real-time market data when making investment decisions in precious metals [13]. - The potential for significant market adjustments due to external shocks, such as geopolitical events or economic downturns, is highlighted as a critical factor for investors to monitor [24][37].

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Silver Co., Ltd. has announced a share repurchase plan approved by its board of directors, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and confidence in the company [1][4]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Announcement - The board of directors held a meeting on June 23, 2025, where they approved the proposal for share repurchase through centralized bidding [1]. - The details of the share repurchase plan were disclosed in subsequent announcements on June 24, 2025, including the resolutions from the board meeting [1]. Group 2: Shareholder Information - The announcement includes the shareholding status of the top ten shareholders and the top ten unrestricted shareholders as of June 23, 2025, prior to the board's announcement [2]. - The disclosed shareholding figures combine both ordinary accounts and margin trading accounts for accuracy [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with specific trends and suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates steady, with a trend strength of 0 [6][7][11]. - **Silver**: Expected to continue rising, with a trend strength of 0 [7][11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories support prices, with a trend strength of 0 [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina: Monitor production cuts and maintenance, with a trend strength of 0 [16][18]. - **Zinc**: Under medium - term pressure, monitor social inventory changes, with a trend strength of -1 [19][20]. - **Lead**: Expected to trade within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tight present but weak future expectations, with a trend strength of 0 [25][29]. - **Nickel**: Concerns at the mine end have cooled, and smelting supply is elastic, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with supply and demand both weak and prices oscillating at a low level, with a trend strength of 0 [30][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipt de - stocking is accelerating, monitor potential purchases, with a trend strength of 0 [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuously de - stocking, monitor upside potential, with a trend strength of -1; Polysilicon: Upstream restarts production, and the futures price is falling, with a trend strength of -1 [38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [45][46][48]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [50][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 for both [54][56]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61]. - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long run [54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night trading oscillated weakly, and short - term strength is expected to pause; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The adjustment trend continues, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market rebounded slightly [56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: U.S. biofuel policy and Middle - East geopolitics are both favorable [63]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to rise oscillatingly [63]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 1**: Oscillating and adjusting [66]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range [68]. - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level [69]. - **Cotton**: Monitor the impact of external markets [70]. - **Eggs**: The culling of laying hens is accelerating, waiting for the peak - season bullish factors to materialize [72]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for spot price confirmation, and the cost center for the far - end contracts is moving down [73]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [74]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Currently in a sideways market, consider holding long positions in the August contract and short positions in the October contract [57]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip**: Monitor the increasing cost volatility, and prices will oscillate at a high level [61]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to trade within a range [62]. - **Log**: The basis is being repaired, and prices will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 1 [62][64].

Group 1 - Recent surge in silver futures and spot prices has broken historical resistance levels, with Shanghai silver futures reaching a record of 8855 yuan/kg and spot silver hitting 36.27 USD/oz, the highest since March 2012 [2] - The current rise in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including internal demand for precious metals and strong industrial demand, indicating that silver's financial attributes have been previously underestimated [2] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from a previous high of 100 to around 94, still significantly above the historical average of 60-80, suggesting ongoing valuation recovery potential for silver [2] Group 2 - The industrial aspect of silver is also contributing to price increases, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to a shortage of 117.6 million ounces by 2025, driven by stable growth in demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [3] - The European countries' loose fiscal and monetary policies are expected to boost industrial and investment demand, further enhancing silver's price elasticity after breaking last year's high resistance [3] - While the silver market appears promising, it remains uncertain, with future dynamics needing to consider the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and U.S. tariff policies, although the overall upward trend is expected to continue [3]