Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors, with supply-side production cuts and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. - The polysilicon market shows a continuous decline in supply and demand, with a weakening of cost support. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. - The main logic for the market is that the supply-demand imbalance caused by capacity mismatch is difficult to change, with cost increases providing some support, but the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market are negative factors [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule is expected to decrease and stay around the historical average [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, at a neutral level and a 7.44% decrease from the previous week. The demand in the downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is generally weak [3]. - Cost: In the Xinjiang region, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, while the sample enterprise inventory and major port inventory have increased [3]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [3]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8965 - 9165 [3]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The November production schedule is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The production and demand in the downstream sectors of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all decreasing. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 37,790 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,210 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the historical period [8]. - Market: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position has changed to long [8]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52590 - 54200 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - The report provides detailed data on the price, basis, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon, as well as the cost and profit of different regions and specifications [14]. - It also shows the price trends of downstream products such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, as well as their production, inventory, and trade data [41][50][60]. Polysilicon - The report presents data on the production, demand, inventory, and price of polysilicon, as well as the production, inventory, and trade data of its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16]. - It also includes the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, showing the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance situation [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month starting from November, and the demand is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak. The short - term disk is considered to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [7][8] - Polysilicon: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price showed a strong - side oscillation, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 9100 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8800 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was 9100 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 200) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price remained stable. The futures closed at 56410 yuan/ton on Friday, and the upstream spot price remained firm [2] 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The overall weekly production increased month - on - month, with an increase in the start - up rate in Inner Mongolia and a decrease in the southwest region. In November and December, the overall production is expected to decrease month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 million tons compared to last week, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.06 million tons [3] - Demand side: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The demand for polysilicon may decrease in the future, the demand from the organic silicon sector remained at a rigid level, and the terminal consumption space was limited. The aluminum alloy sector was operating at a low - load level, and the export market had some inquiry orders [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production decreased month - on - month. Starting from November, the production of leading factories in the southwest will decrease, and the expected production will fall to 10 - 11 million tons. The inventory increased this week [5][6] - Demand side: The silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly month - on - month, but the price of some specifications of silicon wafers decreased. There were some upstream - downstream orders, but the transaction price remained flat [6] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - Market outlook: The decline in warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, but the disk has certain support. It is recommended to observe the daily registration/decline of warehouse receipts [7] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 8700 - 9500 yuan/ton [8] Polysilicon - Market outlook: Policy announcements may occur next week, and the disk is expected to hit a previous high but then fall back. The supply and demand are both weak, and the 11 - 12 month period will see a small inventory reduction [8] - Investment recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. The expected disk range next week is 53000 - 59000 yuan/ton [8] 4. Hedging Recommendations - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply tightness is expected to drive prices of copper and cobalt commodities upward, while lithium prices may rise due to unexpected demand in energy storage [1] Commodity Price Outlook - Copper and cobalt prices are anticipated to continue rising due to supply constraints [1] - Lithium prices are expected to benefit from higher-than-expected energy storage demand [1] - Precious metals have experienced a pullback, but the overall bullish sentiment remains unchanged [1] - Coal and electrolytic aluminum, which have shown stagnation this year, may receive increased attention in Q4 [1] Other Commodities - Oil and steel/iron ore prices are projected to remain weak [1] - Silicon product prices are expected to see a slight increase [1] - The investment enthusiasm for bulk commodities is likely to persist amid liquidity easing and countries strengthening their efforts to secure key resources [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are weakening, and the futures market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the expected trading range for next week is 8,200 - 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations still exist. One can look for buying opportunities at low prices. The expected trading range for next week is 51,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon's futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, with the spot price falling. The futures closed at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8,750 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan week-on-week), and Inner Mongolia 99 silicon at 8,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week-on-week) [1]. - Polysilicon's futures price showed a strong and volatile trend, with the spot price remaining stable. The futures closed at 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream's offer remained firm, while the downstream was still in a wait - and - see state [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply side**: The weekly industry inventory increased. The production in Xinjiang increased, and the southwest is expected to gradually reduce production from the end of October. The estimated production in October is 440,000 tons. The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 200 tons this week [2]. - **Demand side**: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. Polysilicon's production is high in October but will decline in November. Organic silicon has short - term maintenance, and the demand from the aluminum alloy end is mainly for rigid orders. The export market is stable [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply side**: The short - term weekly production remains high. Some idle production capacities are planned to resume production in October, with an estimated production of about 135,000 tons. Southwest leading factories will reduce production from November, and the inventory increased this week [3]. - **Demand side**: The silicon wafer production increased more than expected in October. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively low, and the average raw material inventory is close to 2 - 3 months. Silicon wafer manufacturers are in a wait - and - see state for procurement [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are weakening. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month from November, and the demand will also decline. The futures price has limited upside space and is likely to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to the futures warehouse receipt volume [6]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - There are still policy expectations. The supply and demand are in a weak state. The supply will shrink from November, and the demand from the silicon wafer end needs to be observed in November - December. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to the actual procurement price and the establishment time of the platform company [7]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Price Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from September 19, 2025, to October 17, 2025 [10]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory, production, profit, export and import volume, and raw material prices of industrial silicon, including social inventory, factory inventory, monthly production, profit calculation, etc. [12][13][15] 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side Charts 3.6.1 Downstream Polysilicon - Charts show the spot price, production, industry profit, and related consumption data of polysilicon, such as the price of different types of polysilicon, monthly production, and industry profit calculation [21] 3.6.2 Downstream Organic Silicon - Charts show the average price, industry start - up rate, production, inventory, and profit of domestic DMC, as well as the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane [22][24] 3.6.3 Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Charts show the price, industry start - up rate, profit, and related consumption data of recycled aluminum ADC12, as well as the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles [24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should be shorted at high prices, with an expected price range of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton next week; polysilicon is recommended for observation, with an expected price range of 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton next week. The PS2511/PS2512 pair still maintains the inter - period reverse hedging idea, and upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories are recommended for selling hedging [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, with spot prices falling; polysilicon futures oscillated weakly, with spot quotes rising. The industrial silicon futures closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM statistics showed that the price of 99 - silicon in Xinjiang was 8450 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), and that in Inner Mongolia was 8700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan from the previous week). Polysilicon futures closed at 49555 yuan/ton on Friday, with upstream spot quotes firm but downstream purchases already sufficient [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - **Supply side**: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Xinjiang and Yunnan's production increased marginally this week, but the resumption of production in the northwest was slow, and the subsequent resumption rhythm was crucial. Yunnan's resumption amplitude was small, partly due to the remaining time of the dry season and the production of non - standard products for futures. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 million tons this week, and the social inventory, factory inventory, and overall industry inventory also decreased [2] - **Demand side**: Short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production schedule of polysilicon increased, but the silicon powder tender price did not rise. The weekly production of organic silicon decreased, with rigid demand for industrial silicon, and some monomer plants had the expectation of resuming production. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid orders, and the export market was cautious, with the possible crackdown on buying orders at the end of the year affecting exports [3] Polysilicon - **Supply side**: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The production schedule in August was expected to exceed 130,000 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, with inventory transferred to downstream [3] - **Demand side**: After the profit of silicon wafers was repaired, the output increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, leading to price increases and production increases by some silicon wafer factories. The silicon wafer enterprises replenished a large amount of inventory, with an average raw material inventory of nearly 3 - 4 months, indicating a vacuum period for downstream replenishment in the next 1 - 2 months [5] Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The upstream factories are resuming production, and the overall fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the trading idea is to short at high positions and take profits at low positions, not to hold for a long time [6] - **Polysilicon**: It has entered the procurement vacuum period, with weak fundamentals. Although some factories are expected to reduce production in September, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decrease. It is necessary to see greater production cuts from upstream to support the spot market. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy information [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].