1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should be shorted at high prices, with an expected price range of 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton next week; polysilicon is recommended for observation, with an expected price range of 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton next week. The PS2511/PS2512 pair still maintains the inter - period reverse hedging idea, and upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories are recommended for selling hedging [6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, with spot prices falling; polysilicon futures oscillated weakly, with spot quotes rising. The industrial silicon futures closed at 8390 yuan/ton on Friday, and the SMM statistics showed that the price of 99 - silicon in Xinjiang was 8450 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), and that in Inner Mongolia was 8700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan from the previous week). Polysilicon futures closed at 49555 yuan/ton on Friday, with upstream spot quotes firm but downstream purchases already sufficient [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - **Supply side**: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Xinjiang and Yunnan's production increased marginally this week, but the resumption of production in the northwest was slow, and the subsequent resumption rhythm was crucial. Yunnan's resumption amplitude was small, partly due to the remaining time of the dry season and the production of non - standard products for futures. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 million tons this week, and the social inventory, factory inventory, and overall industry inventory also decreased [2] - **Demand side**: Short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production schedule of polysilicon increased, but the silicon powder tender price did not rise. The weekly production of organic silicon decreased, with rigid demand for industrial silicon, and some monomer plants had the expectation of resuming production. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid orders, and the export market was cautious, with the possible crackdown on buying orders at the end of the year affecting exports [3] Polysilicon - **Supply side**: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The production schedule in August was expected to exceed 130,000 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased this week, with inventory transferred to downstream [3] - **Demand side**: After the profit of silicon wafers was repaired, the output increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, leading to price increases and production increases by some silicon wafer factories. The silicon wafer enterprises replenished a large amount of inventory, with an average raw material inventory of nearly 3 - 4 months, indicating a vacuum period for downstream replenishment in the next 1 - 2 months [5] Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The upstream factories are resuming production, and the overall fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the trading idea is to short at high positions and take profits at low positions, not to hold for a long time [6] - **Polysilicon**: It has entered the procurement vacuum period, with weak fundamentals. Although some factories are expected to reduce production in September, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decrease. It is necessary to see greater production cuts from upstream to support the spot market. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy information [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].