中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 12 月一如預期減息 0.25 厘， 市場目前預期 2026 年主席換屆後貨幣政策立場轉鴿，預測減息 2 次，高 於聯儲局預測，惟仍需觀望經濟數據走勢及其餘委員取態。儘管美國延續 減息，內地放寬貨幣政策的空間加大，但中美關稅戰停戰，經濟形勢未有 急劇轉變，內地短期政策加碼誘因不大。預計政策重點提效，並具針對性。 十五五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，短線觀望中央經濟工作會 議的部署。而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較大，大市交投 縮減，北水動能放緩，恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 短期看好板塊 中國12月1年及5年期LPR；日本11月CPI；香港11月綜合CPI； 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 12 月 222012 日星期一 -01-17 市場回顧 彭日飛 lewis.pang@cinda.com.hk 宏觀焦點 商務部召開黨組擴大會議，大力提振消費； 發改委等3部委發布互聯網平台價格行為規則，明年4月10日起施行； 商務部：前11個月社會消費品零售總額45.6萬億元，增長4.0%； 發改委:經濟循環仍有不少 ...

1. 對於看好美團後續反彈、計畫佈局認購證的投資者，中銀認購證（19960）是優選。其杠杆倍數達10倍，行使價116港元，核心優勢在於杠杆及引伸波幅較 為理想。當前美團處於震盪築底階段，若後續突破阻力位，穩定的引伸波幅能減少額外波動風險，10倍杠杆也能在正股上漲時充分享受收益。 回顧近期美團的異動行情，其股價波動已在窩輪市場引發強烈反響。我們複盤12月12日的相關數據發現，當美團在兩日後股價下跌2.83%時，相關窩輪卻呈 現爆發式上漲：摩根大通熊證（53743）兩日漲幅達40%，瑞銀熊證（61628）同步上漲39%，瑞銀認沽證（18354）和中銀認沽證（16361）也分別錄得22% 和18%的漲幅。 昨日（16日）早盤，美團（03690）全天收報99.5港元，單日下跌1.39%，成交額達31.98億港元，盤中在96.3港元（支撐位1）至102.9港元（阻力位1）區間 窄幅震盪，下方93港元（支撐位2）形成強支撐，上方則需突破106港元（阻力位2）才能打開上行空間。 從技術面來看，美團當前上漲概率為55%，RSI指標處於49的中立區間，技術指標總信號為"買入"，強度8級，但MA10、MA30、MA60分別位於9 ...

匯豐突破在即？關鍵支撐阻力位與輪證產品詳解 12月18日，匯豐控股（00005）迎來股息派發日，每股0.777722元的分紅落袋為安，為投資者注入一劑強心針。與此同時，美銀證券最新研報將其評級升 至"買入"，看好香港存款業務與亞洲財富管理業務的雙重增長潛力，甚至上調了未來兩年的每股盈利預測。在基本面與資金面的雙重支撐下，這只金融龍頭 的短線走勢備受關注。從市場回饋來看，多數短線投資者認可機構的樂觀判斷，認為在股息派發與業務增長預期的推動下，股價突破120元是大概率事件。 部分投資者表示，將重點關注113元附近的低吸機會，若股價站穩121.5元阻力位，將考慮進一步加倉。 技術面：多空信號交織，支撐阻力清晰可辨 截至12月18日，匯豐報118元，上漲0.43%，5日振幅維持在3.6%的相對平穩區間，成交額達6.05億元，資金交投保持活躍。從技術指標來看，當前呈現出"多 空信號交織"的特徵——技術指標總結信號為"賣出"，但強度僅為10，顯示空方力量並不強勢；而MACD信號、一目均衡表、牛熊力量等多個核心指標均給 出"買入"信號，RSI指標則處於67的中立位置，未進入明確超買區間。 支撐與阻力位的界限十分清晰，為短線 ...

# 【窩輪透視】盤點建行窩輪龍頭：熊證兩日暴漲14%，邏輯全拆解 12月17日，銀行股板塊可謂暗流湧動藏生機，其中建設銀行（00939）的表現尤其值得關注。建行全天收報7.43港元，單日上漲0.54%，全天成交額達16.39 億港元，成交相對活躍。 其實不止建行，12月17日整個銀行股板塊的技術面都頗具看點。工商銀行（01398）收報6.03港元，漲幅0.84%，技術面同樣給出"買入"評級，股價穩穩站在 5日均線之上，短期底部特徵十分突出；中國銀行（03988）收報4.34港元，微漲0.46%，技術指標確認"買入"信號，MACD柱狀圖收窄，可見拋壓正在緩 解；農業銀行（01288）表現最為亮眼，收報5.43港元，大漲2.07%，技術指標給出"買入"評價，成交額達10億港元，形成量價齊升的良好格局。當然，板塊 內部也存在分化，招商銀行（03968）收報49.4港元，小幅下跌0.80%，雖然技術面為"強力買入"，但股價受30日均線壓制，短期預計仍會震盪；交通銀行 （03328）走勢則相對疲軟，收報6.49港元，重挫3.13%，即便技術指標顯示"買入"，但股價已跌破所有均線支撐，結構上暫時偏弱。 整體來看，銀行股當 ...

為方便投資者可隨時閱讀我們的報告，我們已將相關報告上載 於公司網站，投資者可透過以下鏈接參閱： https://www.ebshkfg.com/tc/research-wealthManagement 2025 年 12 月 16 日 報告重點: 上 周 回 顧 美股走勢 美股三大指數個別發展 港股走勢 恒指上周輕微失守 26,000 點關口 商品市場表現 紐約期油按周下挫 | | | 一周市場摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票指數 | 收市 | 升跌 | % | | 恒生指數 | 25,976.79 | -108.29 | -0.42% | | 金融指數 | 47,941.71 | 296.24 | 0.62% | | 公用事業指數 | 37,900.00 | -49.77 | -0.13% | | 地產指數 | 18,141.21 | -284.01 | -1.54% | | 工商指數 | 14,326.23 | -131.64 | -0.91% | | 國企指數 | 9,079.35 | -118.95 | -1.29% | | 紅籌指數 | 4,150.40 | ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to find short-term support around the 25,000 point level, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 0.25% leading to market expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2026, which is higher than the Fed's own forecast [2][4] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts and increased monetary policy space in mainland China, the economic situation remains stable with no significant changes anticipated in the short term [2][4] - The focus of policy is expected to be on efficiency and targeted measures, particularly in light of the 14th Five-Year Plan's emphasis on expanding domestic demand and promoting technological self-reliance [2][4] Sector Focus - The macroeconomic focus includes Xi Jinping's article emphasizing the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand, with a notable decline in commodity housing sales in mainland China [3][9] - The real estate sector has seen a significant drop in sales, with a reported 11% decrease in commodity housing sales in the first 11 months of the year [9] - Fitch Ratings predicts that the Chinese real estate sector will continue to contract in 2026, with new residential sales expected to decline by 7% to 8% [9] Corporate News - Vanke (2202) is seeking to extend the grace period and postpone principal repayment, proposing more favorable terms to creditors [10] - Meituan (3690) has decided to suspend its group purchasing business to focus on exploring new retail formats [10] - Guo Xia Technology (2655) has seen a significant increase of over 80% in its dark market trading ahead of its listing [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cut has brought the federal funds target rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut this year [4] - The Fed has adjusted its GDP forecast for 2026 upwards by 0.5 percentage points to 2.3%, while lowering the inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4% [4] - China's industrial production and retail sales data for November fell short of expectations, indicating ongoing economic challenges [9] Investment Opportunities - The AI sector is highlighted as a growth area, with projections indicating that the core AI industry in mainland China could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by significant growth in application cases [9] - The biopharmaceutical sector is also poised for growth due to rising flu cases and favorable financing conditions for global biotech investments [7][9]

Company Recommendations - China Telecom (0728) is recommended for purchase with a target price of 6.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of 5.65 HKD [2][11] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,976 points, with a year-to-date increase of 29.50% [4] - The market is currently observing a short-term support level around 25,000 points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and the economic outlook in China [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Telecom reported a slight revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with service revenue growing by 0.9% [7] - EBITDA increased by 4.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.0% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, revenue slightly declined by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5% [7] Cloud Services - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud is in a transitional phase, with revenue growth slowing down; however, AI-driven smart computing services saw a significant increase of 62.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The company did not disclose Tianyi Cloud's revenue for Q3 2025, but it reported 57.3 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth [8] Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The government is expected to encourage the application of AI-related cloud computing technologies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which may benefit China Telecom's cloud business [9] - The anticipated rise in Chinese government bond yields is expected to be limited, making China Telecom a relatively attractive high-dividend stock choice [10] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China Telecom are as follows: 5,342.9 billion RMB for FY25 and 5,466.6 billion RMB for FY26 [11] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 349.6 billion RMB for FY25 and 370.2 billion RMB for FY26 [11]

港股點評 2025年12月15日9:30 a.m 市場繼續拋售科技股並轉向週期性股票，美股周五下滑。納指領跌，全日收市 跌 398 點或 1.7%，至 23,195 點；道指一度創下盤中新高，其後倒跌，收市下滑 245 點或 0.5%至 48,458 點；標普 500 指數跌 73 點或 1.1%至 6,827 點。全周計 算，標普 500 指數和納指本周均收跌，分別下跌 0.6%及 1.6%，道指則累升 1.1%。 恒指升 446 點，滬指升 16 點，標普 500 跌 73 點 港股在美股道指創收市新高下上升。恒指 12 日高開 230 點後升幅擴大，曾升 475 點高見 26,006 點，全日升 446 點或 1.75%，收 25,976 點；國指升 145 點或 1.6%，收 9,079 點；恒生科技指數升 103 點或 1.9%，收 5,638 點。大市全日成交 總額 2,426.57 億元。 美國總統特朗普表示，傾向在聯儲局前理事沃什(Kevin Warsh)與國家經濟委員 會主任哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)之間，挑選一位在明年出任聯儲局主席。特朗普稱， 希望一年後利率應降至 1%，甚至更 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for Zijin Mining (2899) with a target price of HKD 38.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.9% from the current price of HKD 33.08 [10][15] - The macroeconomic environment suggests a supportive stance for the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index expected to find short-term support around 25,000 points [2][4] Company Analysis - Zijin Mining has faced supply disruptions due to the shutdown of several large mines, leading to downward revisions in global copper production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [10] - The company is expected to benefit from increased demand for copper driven by AI investments, green energy transitions, and defense spending, with projections indicating a supply-demand imbalance over the next decade [11] - Zijin Mining's operational performance has exceeded market expectations, with a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 254.2 billion and a 55% increase in net profit to RMB 37.86 billion in the first three quarters of the year [12] - The company has a diversified global mining portfolio, operating in 17 countries, which helps mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [13] - If metal prices continue to rise, earnings forecasts for 2026 could be adjusted upwards, with projected earnings per share increasing by approximately 28% to RMB 2.475 [14] Industry Insights - The macroeconomic focus includes stabilizing the real estate market and promoting domestic demand, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need for targeted fiscal policies [4][18] - The retail sector is expected to undergo innovation and transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with increased policy support anticipated [4][18] - The automotive industry in China is projected to see significant growth, with exports expected to reach 7 million vehicles in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI-related electronic products [4][18]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings (00005) has shown a positive performance with a closing price of 111.7 HKD, reflecting a daily increase of 2.01% and a trading volume exceeding 1.724 billion HKD, driven by a recovery in the financial sector and optimistic market expectations regarding interest rates [1][3]. Technical Analysis - The technical support levels for HSBC are clear, with the first support at 107.8 HKD and the second at 103.6 HKD, indicating a certain level of buying interest below these prices. Resistance levels are at 115.7 HKD and 119.8 HKD, requiring further trading volume for effective breakthroughs [2]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for HSBC is currently at 51, indicating a neutral position. Although technical indicators suggest a "sell" signal, the strength of this signal is limited. Conversely, several oscillators indicate a buying signal, suggesting potential upward movement [2]. Market Overview - On December 10, the Hong Kong stock market exhibited a range-bound pattern with significant sector performance differentiation. Real estate and property management stocks were the highlights, with Vanke Enterprises (02202) surging by 13.17% due to favorable funding news. Other notable gains included China Jinmao (00817) and Sunac China (01918), which rose by 8.55% and 8.87%, respectively [3]. - In the technology sector, Meituan (03690) increased by 2.72% due to growth expectations in food delivery orders, while Tencent (00700) and Alibaba (09988) saw slight increases. Among financial stocks, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) and Ping An Insurance (02318) showed steady gains, while China Merchants Bank (03968) fell over 3% due to asset quality concerns [3]. Derivative Products Performance - Since December 8, HSBC's stock has seen a cumulative increase of 2.38%, with related warrants and bull certificates demonstrating significant leverage effects. The most notable products include: 1. UBS Bull Certificate (63092) with a two-day increase of 33%, showcasing the leverage effect as it closely follows the stock's upward trend [6]. 2. UBS Call Warrant (18901) also recorded a 33% increase over two days, benefiting from the stock's steady rise [6]. - Another two products, UBS Bull Certificate (58939) and Bank of China Call Warrant (29663), achieved increases of 22% and 12%, respectively, indicating that the stable rise of the underlying stock is the main driver for the price increase of derivatives [8]. Selected Derivative Recommendations - Two selected warrants are highlighted for their cost-effectiveness and high leverage, suitable for different risk appetites: 1. Guotai Junan Call Warrant (28491) is recommended for its low premium and implied volatility, with a strike price of 130.98 HKD, allowing for significant upside potential while minimizing time value loss [9]. 2. UBS Bull Certificate (58939) is noted for its low premium and high leverage of 12.4 times, providing a safety margin with a redemption price set at 100 HKD, making it suitable for capturing short-term market movements [9].