废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/29 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/09/22 | 2261 | 2333 | 2081 | 2261 | 2293 | 2170 | | 2025/09/23 | 2263 | 2331 | 2083 | 2262 | 2293 | 2171 | | 2025/09/24 | 2263 | 2330 | 2083 | 2262 | 2293 | 2171 | | 2025/09/25 | 2264 | 2329 | 2085 | 2263 | 2293 | 2165 | | 2025/09/26 | 2263 | 2327 | 2085 | 2260 | 2291 | 2165 | | 环比 | -1 | -2 | 0 | -3 | -2 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎， ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing efforts to combat "involution" and disordered competition in various industries have shown positive results, with expectations for further policy support to sustain this momentum [1][7]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Improvement - From January to August, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises turned from a decline of 1.7% to a growth of 0.9%, marking a significant recovery [2]. - In August alone, industrial profits saw a notable increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [2]. - The improvement in industrial profits is attributed to macroeconomic policies, a unified national market, and a low base effect from the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 2.9% in August, the smallest drop since March, indicating a recovery in pricing power [3]. - Specific industries, such as coal processing and steel manufacturing, experienced reduced price declines, contributing to the overall improvement in industrial profits [3][4]. - The recovery in prices is linked to enhanced market competition and effective governance of industry practices [3][7]. Group 3: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing targeted policies to stimulate downstream demand, particularly in consumer goods and real estate [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that if policies effectively boost demand, the benefits of profit improvements could extend to downstream sectors, leading to a more comprehensive recovery in industrial profits [6][8]. - Recent government initiatives focus on stabilizing growth in key industries such as steel and automotive, emphasizing the need for structured governance and competition regulation [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of upstream industry prices has been observed, while the midstream and downstream sectors still require more policy support to combat "involution" and promote sustainable development [1][5][7] Group 1: Industrial Profit and Price Trends - From January to August, the profit of the raw materials manufacturing industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, with the steel industry turning from loss to profit [1][5] - The overall industrial profit growth turned positive, with a 0.9% increase in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises from January to August, reversing a decline since May [2][4] - In August, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline narrowed to 2.9% year-on-year, marking the first reduction in the decline since March [3][4] Group 2: Policy Measures and Industry Support - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to resist "involution" and promote healthy competition [1][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released multiple industry stabilization plans, focusing on sectors like automotive, steel, and non-ferrous metals to enhance governance and competition order [7][8] - Future policies should focus on expanding domestic demand and ensuring the effective implementation of "anti-involution" measures to support downstream industries [6][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Despite improvements in industrial profits, revenue growth indicates that demand has not significantly improved, with rising inventory levels and longer accounts receivable periods [4][6] - The structural differentiation of profits between upstream and downstream industries persists, with upstream benefiting from "anti-involution" policies while downstream remains constrained by weak terminal demand [6][8] - The steel industry faces challenges with excess capacity and demand imbalance, necessitating precise capacity control and supply-demand coordination [9]

从不同板块看，1至8月份，规模以上装备制造业利润增长7.2%，是拉动作用最强的板块之一，对规模以上工业企业利润恢复支撑作 用明显。 央视网消息：国家统计局9月27日发布的数据显示，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进等多重因素作用下，2025年1至8 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.9%。 2025年1至8月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润由1至7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自2025年5月份以来企业累计利润持 续下降的态势。 从月度看，8月份，规模以上工业企业利润实现两位数增长，由7月份的下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，工业企业当月利润改善明显。 受市场需求增加、价格回升、成本有所下降等因素带动，1至8月份，原材料制造业利润同比增长22.1%，较1至7月份加快10个百分 点。其中，钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈，有色行业利润增长明显加快。 此外，1至8月份，消费品制造业利润由同比下降转为增长1.4%。其中，酒饮料茶、农副食品等行业利润增速较快，均实现两位数增 长。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉介绍，从总的数据变化看，工业利润的改善与营收增长、成本下降，其他相关 财务指标好 ...

央视网消息：国家统计局9月27日发布的数据显示，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进等多重因素作用下，今年1至 8月份全国规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.9%。 今年1至8月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润由1至7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续 下降的态势。从月度看，8月份规模以上工业企业利润实现两位数增长，由7月份的下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，工业企业当月利润改善 明显。 受市场需求增加、价格回升、成本有所下降等因素带动，1至8月份，原材料制造业利润同比增长22.1%，较1至7月份加快10个百 分点。其中，钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈，有色行业利润增长明显加快。此外，1至8月份，消费品制造业利润由同比下降转为增长1.4%， 其中，酒饮料茶、农副食品等行业利润增速较快，均实现两位数增长。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任 魏琪嘉：从总的数据变化看，工业利润的改善与营收增长、成本下降，其他相关财 务指标好转等情况是相互印证、相互匹配的，这也证明了当前工业利润边际改善的加快，对市场预期起到较好的提振作用，也对全年 工业利润改善打下了良好的基础。 从不同板块看，1 ...

Group 1 - In the first eight months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 46,929.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while operating income was 89.62 trillion yuan, up 2.3% [1] - The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2%, significantly supporting the recovery of profits in industrial enterprises, with rapid profit growth in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electrical machinery sectors, achieving growth rates of 37.3% and 11.5% respectively [3] - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises turned from a decline in July to a growth of 20.4%, with operating income increasing by 1.9%, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points compared to July [4] Group 2 - The profit of the raw materials manufacturing industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, accelerating by 10 percentage points compared to the first seven months, with the steel industry turning profitable with a total profit of 83.7 billion yuan, and the non-ferrous industry profit growing by 12.7%, accelerating by 5.8 percentage points [6] - Experts indicate that in the next phase, it is essential to further expand domestic demand and promote the construction of a unified national market to create favorable conditions for the sustained recovery of industrial enterprise profits [8]

图片来源：国家统计局 前8月同比实现增长 于卫宁表示，1至8月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1至7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。 数据显示，工业企业营收保持稳定增长。1至8月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入同比增长2.3%，与1至7月份持平。其中，8月份工业企业营业收入增长 1.9%，较7月份加快1.0个百分点，"营业收入增长加快，为企业盈利继续恢复创造有利条件。"于卫宁说。 国家统计局9月27日发布数据显示，1至8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额46929.7亿元，同比增长0.9%。8月份规模以上工业企业利润实现两位 数的同比增长，由7月份下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，工业企业当月利润改善明显。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1至8月份，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年同期低基数等多重因素作用下，规模以 上工业企业利润同比增长0.9%，装备制造业支撑有力，不同规模企业利润均有所改善。 此外，8月企业单位成本下降，营收利润率回升。于卫宁表示，8月份，规模以上工业企业成本状况有所改善，每百元营业收入中的成本同比减少0.20元， ...

Domestic Macro - On September 19, the State Council discussed the revised draft of the Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China [1] - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on achieving high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the financial sector's achievements during this period [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Party Committee announced efforts to promote long-term capital entering the market [1] - The Ministry of Finance indicated guidance for local governments to implement a series of incremental debt support policies [1] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, including optimizing zero tax rate declaration procedures and increasing export credit insurance support [1] - On September 24, the People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased operations [1] Industry Policy - On September 20, the National Healthcare Security Administration released the 11th batch of drug procurement documents [2] - On September 21, the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy published the "China Regional Science and Technology Innovation Evaluation Report 2025" [2] - The State Council's Food Safety Office is accelerating the establishment of national standards for prepared dishes [2] - On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value [2] - The National Sports Administration released guidelines to promote the high-quality development of sports for health [2] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued guidelines to vigorously develop digital consumption, including trials for smart connected vehicles [2] - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Building Materials Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", with strict capacity control for cement and glass [2] - On September 25, the National Healthcare Security Administration published the "National Long-term Care Insurance Service Project Directory (Trial)" [2] Local Policy - On September 19, Shanghai issued a notice optimizing the personal housing property tax pilot policies, exempting the first home for talent with residence permits and families with residence permits for over three years, and exempting the second home within 60 square meters per person [3] - On September 21, Sanya passed the "Implementation Measures for the Development of Guaranteed Rental Housing", with rental prices for guaranteed rental housing guided by the government [3] - On September 25, Tianjin will conduct a pilot for the registration of real estate trust property [3] Overseas Dynamics - On September 19, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [4] - The European Commission approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [4] - On September 20, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order significantly reforming the H-1B visa program, requiring applicants to pay a fee of $100,000 [4] - On September 22, President Trump stated he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC informal leaders' meeting [4] - On September 24, Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York; the U.S. officially imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and automotive products [4] - On September 25, the Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of three U.S. entities, including Flat Earth Management, in the export control list and initiated an investigation into trade and investment barriers related to Mexico [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated downward this week. The macro - environment has tariff disturbances, the industrial situation shows high production, falling terminal demand, rising inventory, and falling apparent demand. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand was stable at 321.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 3.3 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Factory and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, an increase of 2.51 million tons from the previous week, but a decrease of 19.13 million tons year - on - year [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners including China, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries jointly issued a work plan for the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026 [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils remained high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Terminal demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased but remained above 3.2 million tons [7]. - **Cost aspect**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated and corrected. Although the molten iron production was high, the arrival volume and port inventory increased. The coking coal futures price first rose and then fell. There was a pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract's center of gravity moved down, and the futures price was under pressure below multiple moving averages. It may test the support near 3300 and the previous low of 3280 in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were under pressure below the 0 - axis, and the red bar shrank [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment, tariff disturbances have resurfaced. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand has declined, inventory continues to increase, and apparent demand has decreased, but overall resilience is strong. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and cost - side support has weakened. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the market may fluctuate. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the HC2601 contract fluctuated downward. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the spread on the 26th was 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On September 26, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 46314 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6986 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 75554 lots, a decrease of 30039 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot price**: On September 26, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 26th was 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2750.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.1 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 169.00 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 351.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons. On September 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 122.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.67 million tons [39]. - **Coking plant situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%. Coke inventory decreased by 2.67 million tons to 39.54 million tons, while coking coal inventory increased by 53.06 million tons to 856.23 million tons, and the available days of coking coal increased by 0.76 days to 12.1 days [43]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Steel production and export**: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, China exported 951 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons and a 3.3% decrease; imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons and a 10.6% increase [46]. - **Blast furnace operation**: On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [50]. - **Hot - rolled coil production and inventory**: On September 25, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 enterprises was 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year. The in - factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 1.95 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.18 million tons. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13 million tons [50][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Automobile and home appliance**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, the production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 19964.62 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%; household refrigerators were 7018.91 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%; and household washing machines were 7826.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [58].

| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/09/26 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/09/19 | 3200 | 3280 | 3260 | 3200 | 3320 | 3290 | | 2025/09/22 | 3210 | 3290 | 3330 | 3250 | 3370 | 3330 | | 2025/09/23 | 3180 | 3250 | 3270 | 3200 | 3330 | 3270 | | 2025/09/24 | 3180 | 3290 | 3270 | 3200 | 3330 | 3270 | | 2025/09/25 | 3180 | 3300 | 3270 | 3200 | 3330 | 3270 | | 变化 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | ...