Core Viewpoint - The launch of the AI model project by Shagang Group aims to enhance production efficiency, reduce operational costs, improve product quality, and make management decisions more scientific through the integration of various data sources [1] Group 1: Project Overview - Shagang Group has initiated an AI model project with the support of a Huawei project team providing technical guidance [1] - The project focuses on creating a high-performance intelligent model platform specifically for the steel industry [1] Group 2: Data Integration and Goals - The AI model will integrate comprehensive data from internal production operations, industry trends, national policies, and cutting-edge metallurgical technologies [1] - The ultimate goal is to establish a unified data governance and model application system to fully activate the digital potential across all production and operational aspects [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - Major sectors such as precious metals, oil and gas extraction and services, chemicals, coal, steel, semiconductors, PEEK materials, and photolithography concept stocks saw significant declines, while the liquor and power grid equipment sectors showed resilience [1] - The precious metals and related sectors were heavily sold off, with stocks like Hunan Silver hitting the limit down with nearly 10 billion yuan in sell orders [1] External Influences - The recent "black swan" event in global commodity markets, particularly the sharp drop in international gold and silver prices, was a direct trigger for today's A-share adjustment [3] - Concerns over the potential hawkish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chair, coupled with significant profit-taking by hedge funds, led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices in a single trading day, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a decade [3] Domestic Factors - An increase in the value-added tax rate for telecom services from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026, is expected to impact the profit forecasts of major telecom operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, contributing to a decline in their stock prices [4] - The dense disclosure period for annual performance forecasts has led to some companies failing to meet high market expectations, resulting in a collective pullback in growth stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and certain new energy sectors [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is currently facing seasonal liquidity tightening as the Spring Festival approaches, leading some investors to hold cash to avoid uncertainties during the holiday, which has weakened market support [4] - Despite the current downturn, there may be opportunities for short-term rebounds as some risks have been released, and investors are advised to look for quality stocks that have been oversold [5] - The ability of the market to stabilize in the short term will depend on whether gold and silver prices can find a bottom and stabilize [5]

发布时间：2026-02-04 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年报业绩预告显示 A 股业绩延续 2025 三季报以来的改善趋 势。单纯从业绩预告的预喜率（预增、略增、续盈、扭亏）和预忧率 （预减、略减、首亏、续亏）来看，A 股上市公司在 2025 年报或将出 现边际回升。根据 2025 年报的业绩预告，预增和扭亏上市公司数量 和占比显著提升，同时预减和首亏数量同比也明显减少。但续亏的上 市公司数量和占比较 2024 财年也有明显上升，说明业绩的好转是分 化的，仍有相当数量的上市公司陷在连年亏损的桎梏之中。 大盘指数 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 3000 4000 5000 上证指数 深证成指 0 1000 0 1000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《枪炮与黄油-2026 年度投资策略》 - 2026.01.27 策略观点 业绩之锚 6：A 股对业绩预告的反应机制与偏好 回溯 2019-2024 年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the hot-rolled coil futures declined with reduced positions and trading volume, hitting a new low in the past 20 trading days. The daily line broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is expected to remain weak. The short-term pressure is around the 5-day moving average. Fundamentally, the upward movement is restricted by high inventory and weak demand, while the downward movement is marginally supported by the cost side (iron ore and coke). After the Spring Festival, two points need to be closely tracked: first, the inventory depletion speed. If the inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, the price may continue to decline. Second, the implementation pace of "dual-focus" projects and infrastructure investment. The policy support strength will determine the medium-term rebound space [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its position by 21,563 lots, with a trading volume of 335,114 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,257 yuan, and the high was 3,283 yuan. It declined with reduced positions during the day. From the daily moving average, it short-term broke below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages, closing at 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan or 0.34% [1] - **Spot Price**: The mainstream hot-rolled coil price in Shanghai is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and futures prices is 5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 38,000 tons to 3.0921 million tons. This week's output is at a medium to high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintained a high production pace before the Spring Festival, with increased production enthusiasm [4] - **Demand**: As of January 29, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. The apparent demand slightly increased this week and is at a relatively good level in the same period over the years [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 22,200 tons to 3.5558 million tons week-on-week (the social inventory decreased by 28,100 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 6,100 tons). The total inventory decreased week-on-week, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The overall inventory is in the process of destocking [4] - **Policy**: A new regulation on steel export license management was introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Deeply rectifying involution-style competition was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, with notable declines in share prices across multiple sectors, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market. Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced the highest capital outflow of 3.861 billion, with a share price decline of 8.94% [1][2] - BlueFocus Media saw a capital outflow of 2.275 billion, with a decrease of 8.4% in its stock price [1][2] - Zijin Mining had an outflow of 1.891 billion, reflecting an 8.79% drop in its share price [1][2] - Industrial Fulian faced an outflow of 1.839 billion, with a 3.5% decline in stock value [1][2] - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a capital outflow of 1.673 billion, with a significant drop of 10% in its share price [1][2] Group 2: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Shannon Microelectronics had an outflow of 1.520 billion, with a steep decline of 12.36% [1][2] - BYD experienced a capital outflow of 1.374 billion, with a 4.22% decrease in its stock price [1][2] - Baiwei Storage saw an outflow of 1.183 billion, with a decline of 10.35% [1][2] - Jiangbolong had an outflow of 1.150 billion, with a 10.77% drop in its share price [1][2] - Northern Rare Earth reported an outflow of 1.027 billion, with a 7.62% decline [1][2] Group 3: Other Stocks with Capital Outflows - China Aluminum faced an outflow of 1.016 billion, with a stock price decrease of 9.98% [1][2] - Tianfu Communication had an outflow of 0.977 billion, with a 4% decline in its share price [1][3] - SMIC reported an outflow of 0.953 billion, with a 4.81% drop [1][3] - iFlytek experienced an outflow of 0.797 billion, with a 4.36% decline [1][3] - Wanhua Chemical had an outflow of 0.741 billion, with an 8.68% decrease [1][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term, with coking coal continuing its downward structure but having obvious bottom support [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the previous day's daytime session, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1,116.5 yuan/ton, a 3.71% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1,668.0, a 2.97% decline compared to the daytime opening. It closed with a doji star in the previous night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, the steel industry achieved a total profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 299.2%. The coal mining and washing industry achieved a total profit of 352 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.8% [1] - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement. India will cancel or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods, with the automobile tariff gradually dropping from 110% to 10%. The EU will cancel or reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India within 7 years [1] - On January 27, 2026, the auction of Zhongmei Huali Hesheng coking coal (A12 S0.5 V24 G90) in Jinzhong, Shanxi had a starting price of 1,350 yuan/ton and a quantity of 100 tons, and all were sold at 1,378 yuan/ton. In the previous period (January 17, 2026), the starting price was 1,350 yuan/ton, the quantity was 200 tons, and all were sold at 1,369 - 1,391 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly the previous day. On the spot side, the coking coal auction prices were poor, showing a stable - to - decreasing trend. Fundamentally, the winter - storage logic has weakened marginally, the weak fundamentals are apparent, and the weakening speculative sentiment led to an increase in positions and a price decline on the futures market. In the short - term, coking coal will continue its downward structure, but the bottom support is obvious. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term [1] Trading Strategy - The main contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between the bottom support of 1,100 and the upper limit of 1,170 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining a GDP growth target around 5% for local governments as they set their economic goals for 2026, which is the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][6] - The significance of technological innovation is highlighted, with local governments prioritizing advancements in areas such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy to drive economic growth [3][6] - The need to expand domestic demand and promote consumption is identified as a major task for 2026, with strategies focusing on increasing disposable income and creating diverse consumption scenarios [7][9] Group 2 - Effective investment is crucial for enhancing domestic demand, with local governments encouraged to tailor investment projects to their specific conditions rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach [10] - The construction of a unified national market is emphasized, with local governments needing to balance central directives with local development needs, aiming for both quantity and quality in economic growth [11][12] - The focus on high-quality development is essential, with local governments urged to prioritize investments that enhance residents' welfare and increase disposable income, aligning with central government expectations [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the factors on the news front, the prices of black - series commodity futures have turned from weak to strong recently, and the changes in the fundamentals tend to show a basic balance between supply and demand. It is expected that there is a high possibility of a moderately strong oscillation in the future market. It is advisable to arrange medium - to long - term buy - hedging or investment positions on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On January 26, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rose. The rebar price in Shenyang market increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the rebar prices in Hangzhou, Wuhan, Beijing, Baotou, and Chongqing markets rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Nanchang, Baotou, Shenyang, Harbin, and Guangzhou markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai market fell by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to rise and the D value continuing to decline, showing a trend of a golden cross. The daily MACD green bars of the rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts narrowed for two consecutive trading days [8]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News front: Europe and the United States will not impose additional tariffs on each other due to the Greenland issue for the time being, and the risk appetite of the global financial market has turned to recovery again. The US military is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has become the focus of geopolitical attention again. The international crude oil and energy prices have been significantly boosted by the tense situation in the Middle East and the low - temperature weather in Eurasia, and the strong energy prices have partially spilled over to the metal commodity market [9][10]. - Fundamentals: The output of the five major steel products has increased slightly for four consecutive weeks, while the demand has declined, approaching the lowest level since mid - October last year and the second - lowest level since late February last year. Due to the weekly oversupply, the total inventory has started to increase. On the cost side, the spot price of iron ore has risen after significantly giving back the gains since December 25 last year, while the spot price of coke has been relatively stable after the fourth round of price cuts. However, urged by coke enterprises, more and more steel enterprises are considering accepting a new round of price increases for coke [10]. - Raw materials: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has decreased by 4.7% on a four - week basis compared to the previous period, but the arrival volume has increased by 3.6%. The port iron ore inventory has reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons, and steel mills have replenished their iron ore stocks to a 23 - day available level. Independent coking enterprises have slightly reduced production after following the increase in production of steel enterprises in the past four weeks. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded again since January 12. Except on January 16, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has exceeded 190,000 tons again, and the supply of imported coal has rebounded again. Considering the cold weather in most of the north, the supply and demand are still relatively balanced [10]. 3.2 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Association: The industry should promote the application of energy - saving technologies based on the three - year summary of extreme energy efficiency to promote the green and low - carbon transformation of the steel industry [11]. - Production data of key steel enterprises in mid - January 2026: The average daily output of crude steel decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel products increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased by 7.3% compared with the previous ten - day period [11]. - Corporate performance: Shagang Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to increase by 50.69% - 78.37% year - on - year; Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of 1.85 - 2.05 billion yuan in 2025; Huaibei Mining Co., Ltd. expects its net profit in 2025 to decrease by about 69.21% year - on - year; Zhengzhou Coal and Electric Co., Ltd. expects a net loss of about 916 million yuan in 2025 [11][12]. - Market demand: China's demand for thermal coal decreased by 0.4% in 2025, and the proportion of the power industry further declined to 62.8% [12]. - International trade: Australia launched a safeguard measure investigation on imported pre - fabricated steel structures on January 23, 2026; Thailand decided to maintain the original anti - dumping tax rates on cold - rolled carbon steel coils and non - coils from the Chinese mainland, Taiwan region, and Vietnam for another five years on January 22, 2026 [12]. - International situation: The US Treasury Department imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems on January 23; the world's crude steel output in December 2025 decreased by 3.7% year - on - year [12]. - Market expectation: The market believes that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the January monetary policy meeting has reached 95% [13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][19].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting, and the demand is resilient. The overall supply and demand are in a tight balance. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for the current demand. The social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the pressure on the factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has improved marginally, but the year-on-year inventory is still relatively high. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. In general, the tight balance between supply and demand and inventory reduction support the price. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of the post-holiday demand recovery. Technically, in the short term, attention should be paid to the support near the 5-day and 30-day moving averages, and a bullish view should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: On Monday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 27,500 lots, and the trading volume was 391,114 lots, which was higher than the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,298 yuan, the high was 3,320 yuan, and it fluctuated within the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it stood above the 5-day and 30-day moving averages. If it holds steady, the probability of continued strengthening in the short and medium term is relatively high. It closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.12% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The spot-futures basis was -2 yuan, and the futures were slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decreased month-on-month and significantly year-on-year, reflecting that the capacity release of steel mills has converged, which may be affected by factors such as maintenance arrangements and profit fluctuations, supporting the price [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. The demand decreased slightly month-on-month but maintained growth year-on-year. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported the demand, and the overall demand was relatively resilient [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons week-on-week to 3.5778 million tons (the social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons week-on-week, and the steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). The year-on-year increase was 212,700 tons (the social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and the factory inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase reflected that the inventory accumulation speed this year was slightly faster than last year, and the overall risk was controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("15th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The cost and demand are in a game, and steel prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The central economic work conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations, and the overall macro environment is warm [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Iron water production is expected to stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. Attention should be paid to hot-rolled coil inventory. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the steel prices to fluctuate widely. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing up may need to wait for the price to break through [5][9][11] Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still low. The traditional off-season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. The long and short process supply and inventory information is also provided [24][26] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [29] Hot-rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [34] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is in the traditional off-season, and demand is falling. However, exports remain at a high level through price-for-volume strategy [39][40] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production is cut to reduce inventory. The production is maintained at a low level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [48] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and medium-thick plate [58][59][61][62][64] Cold-rolled Coil and Medium-thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate [65][66]