| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2025/08/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/08/06 | 3330 | 3390 | 3420 | 3320 | 3420 | 3420 | | 2025/08/07 | 3290 | 3350 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3420 | | 2025/08/08 | 3290 | 3330 | 3420 | 3320 | 3380 | 3390 | | 2025/08/11 | 3340 | 3380 | 3420 | 3330 | 3360 | 3430 | | 2025/08/12 | 3340 | 3390 | 3430 | 3340 | 3420 | 3440 | | 变化 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 60 | 10 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 原料强势带动钢价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 | | 获 取 | 每 日 | 期 货 观 点 | 推 送 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 服 务 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The upcoming military parade is expected to catalyze the implementation of production restrictions, leading to significant changes in the supply side of the industry [8] - Short-term production cuts in Tangshan may impact at least 1.4% of Hebei's steel output, potentially driving up steel prices and profit margins [8] - The steel industry is anticipated to return to a state of supply-demand balance, paving the way for high-quality development due to both short-term production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the military parade will lead to stringent production restrictions, similar to those seen in previous years [8] - Historical data indicates that production cuts during past parades significantly affected steel output and prices [8] Production Impact - The production cut in Tangshan is projected to affect approximately 463 million tons of steel output during the specified period [8] - The average monthly steel output in Hebei from 2015 to 2024 is noted to be around 24.62 million tons [8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the steel industry is on the verge of significant supply-side changes, which could stabilize profit margins and lead to a more favorable operating environment [8] - Long-term prospects include a focus on companies with stable dividend levels, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国螺纹钢行业市场竞争态势及发展前景研判报告》 根据国家统计局公布的数据，黑色金属类别下的螺纹钢（Φ20mm，HRB400E）2025年7月下旬市场价格 为3304.1元/吨，同比上涨0.36%，环比上涨4.54%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2021年7月下旬达到最大 值，有5322.8元/吨。 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

湖南启元律师事务所 HUNAN QIYUAN LAW FIRM 湖南省长沙市芙蓉区建湘路 393 号 世茂环球金融中心 63 层 410007 Tel：0731 8295-3778 Fax：0731 8295-3779 http://www.qiyuan.com 湖南启元律师事务所 关于湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司 致：湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司 湖南启元律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）受湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）委托，对公司 2025 年第二次临时股东会（以下简称"本次 股东会"）进行现场见证，并根据《中华人民共和国公司法》 （以下简称"《公 司法》"）、《上市公司股东会规则》（以下简称"《股东会规则》"）等中 国现行法律法规、规章和规范性文件以及《湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司章 程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）的相关规定，出具本法律意见书。 为出具本法律意见书，本所指派本所律师列席了本次股东会，按照律师行 业公认的业务标准、道德规范和勤勉尽责精神，对本次股东会进行了现场 见证，并核查和验证了公司提供的与本次股东会有关的文件、资料和事实。 本所出具本法律意见书是基于公司向本所保证：公司已向本所提供了 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's financial sector is innovating to support green transformation in traditional industries through tailored financial products linked to environmental performance metrics [1][3][9]. Group 1: Financial Innovations - Dongguan Agricultural Commercial Bank has launched a "scattered industrial wastewater index-linked loan" that ties financing costs and credit limits to the company's wastewater treatment performance [1]. - As of now, Guangdong financial institutions have issued 39 loans meeting transformation finance standards, totaling 3.36 billion yuan [2]. - The shift in banking perspective has moved from "whether to do" to "how to do" regarding transformation finance, indicating a growing acceptance of financing high-carbon industries [3][9]. Group 2: Industry Standards and Implementation - The establishment of transformation finance standards is crucial for supporting projects in high-carbon industries like steel and cement, which have traditionally struggled to secure financing [3][4]. - Local transformation finance standards can take months to over a year to develop and implement, as seen with the ceramic industry standard initiated in August 2023 [4]. - The People's Bank of China is leading the development of transformation finance standards for several industries, while local governments are encouraged to create their own standards based on regional characteristics [3][7]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - The complexity of implementing transformation finance projects remains a challenge compared to traditional green projects, requiring detailed documentation and assessments [5][6]. - Financial institutions are exploring ways to streamline the process for small and medium-sized enterprises by adjusting information disclosure requirements [8]. - The Guangdong government has introduced loan interest subsidies for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises, which could enhance the attractiveness of transformation finance [9][10]. Group 4: Future Directions - Financial institutions are focusing on identifying viable transformation projects and enhancing collaboration with government departments to create project databases [9]. - There is a call for clearer regulatory guidance to help banks navigate financing for high-carbon industries while managing risks [10]. - The ongoing development of transformation finance is seen as a critical step in supporting Guangdong's transition to a greener economy [1][8].

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market shows signs of fatigue, with non-farm employment growth nearly stagnating over the past two months, which historically indicates economic distress or the need for intervention [4] - Despite the weak labor data, the probability of a recession remains manageable, with the New York Fed predicting a 28.71% chance of recession in the next 12 months [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in consumption and investment due to high interest rates and uncertainty in tariff policies, although the overall economic resilience was strong in the first half of the year with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% [4] Domestic Policy Insights - The current policy focus is on observing the economic conditions in consumption, exports, and real estate, with a shift towards long-term mechanisms for sustainable economic development [4] - The government is expected to prioritize high-quality economic development and establish long-term sustainable growth mechanisms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4] - If GDP growth falls below 4.7% in the third quarter, there may be considerations for additional policy measures [4] Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow upward trend, supported by strong economic fundamentals and high market activity, although valuation recovery may slow down [4] - The focus for investment should be on long-term allocations in sectors such as banking, dividends, and broad-based indices, with a cautious approach to chasing high valuations [4] - The market is witnessing a structural rotation with opportunities in themes like technology (AI, computing power, chips), military, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins, rare earths, and cyclical sectors [4] Asset Class Outlook - A-shares are viewed as relatively optimistic, while Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks maintain a neutral stance [6] - Credit bonds and convertible bonds are also seen as relatively optimistic, indicating a favorable outlook for fixed-income investments [6] - The outlook for commodities like oil remains cautious, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the global market [6]

Market Overview - A-shares regained the 3600-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% to 3602.13 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.14% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.26% [1][2] Trading Volume - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 10057 billion yuan, an increase of 849 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The military industry sector saw significant activity, with several stocks hitting the daily limit. The PEEK materials sector experienced a surge, and the gaming sector has risen for three consecutive days [2][4][7] Military Sector Highlights - Notable stocks in the military sector included Aerospace Intelligent Equipment, which hit a 20% limit up, and Great Wall Military Industry, which also reached a 10% limit up. The cumulative increase for Great Wall Military Industry since June 18, 2025, is 181.58% [4][5] - The military sector is supported by a continuous increase in global military spending, with China's military manufacturing competitive advantage being underestimated [6] Gaming Sector Highlights - The gaming sector is experiencing a new growth wave, driven by AI technology and the summer season. Stocks like Perfect World and Giant Network saw significant increases [7][8] PEEK Materials Sector - The PEEK materials sector saw a rise, with Huami New Materials on the Beijing Stock Exchange increasing by over 20%. Other companies like Xinhan New Materials and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials also hit the daily limit [9] Steel Sector Performance - The steel sector continued to strengthen, with Maanshan Iron & Steel hitting a 10% limit up. Other companies like Baotou Steel and Fangda Special Steel also saw gains [9][10] Pharmaceutical Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced a pullback after a previous surge, with several stocks in traditional Chinese medicine showing significant declines [11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 529.43 million shares and a transaction value of 748.197 billion yuan, an increase of 3.12% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Comprehensive: +1.55% with a transaction value of 12.33 billion yuan, led by Dongyangguang (+3.39%) [1]. - Steel: +1.40% with a transaction value of 77.70 billion yuan, led by Maanshan Iron & Steel (+10.09%) [1]. - Real Estate: +1.22% with a transaction value of 82.89 billion yuan, led by Shanghai Shenda (+10.06%) [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Pharmaceutical Biology: -0.53% with a transaction value of 874.61 million yuan, led by Nanjing New Pharmaceutical (-9.28%) [2]. - Computer: -0.51% with a transaction value of 616.52 million yuan, led by Dahan Technology (-7.95%) [2]. - Building Materials: -0.18% with a transaction value of 82.91 million yuan, led by Honghe Technology (-6.57%) [2]. Summary of Trading Data - The overall market saw 3,084 stocks rise, with 34 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,060 stocks fell [1]. - The transaction values for various sectors showed significant fluctuations, with Comprehensive and Real Estate sectors experiencing notable increases in transaction values compared to the previous day [1].