Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q3 financial performance was strong, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, indicating an increased attractiveness as a preferred music entertainment service provider [1] Financial Performance - Revenue growth is shifting from subscription services to non-subscription services, necessitating larger-than-expected investments [1] - The adjusted profit forecast for Tencent Music in 2026 has been lowered by 7% [1] Target Price Adjustments - The target price for Tencent Music's US stock has been reduced from $28.5 to $23.7 [1] - The target price for its Hong Kong stock has been adjusted from HKD 110.7 to HKD 92.1 [1] Rating - The rating remains "Outperform" despite the adjustments [1]

Group 1: Financial Data Analysis - In October 2025, M1 balance increased by 6.2% year-on-year, remaining at a relatively high level over the past three years. New loans added in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, while the incremental social financing scale was 815 billion yuan. M2 balance grew by 8.2% year-on-year, which may seem slightly low at first glance. However, considering the relationships of "past vs. present" and "surface vs. internal," the growth in credit, social financing, and M2 should not be viewed as insufficient [4]. Group 2: Energy Sector Insights - The gradual improvement of the capacity electricity price mechanism is a continuous benefit for the energy storage industry. Inner Mongolia maintains a high level of energy storage subsidies, ensuring a considerable increase in energy storage installations next year. The market currently has high expectations for domestic energy storage installations in the coming year, with a focus on monitoring the production of energy storage cells in December and January, as well as upcoming bidding and installation situations. The overall industry remains in a state of sustained prosperity [5]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Trends - The incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) has increased recently, with the ILI percentage reported at 4.6% for the 44th week of 2025, higher than the previous week's 4.1% and above the levels of 3.1% and 3.3% in 2022 and 2024, respectively, but lower than the 5.9% in 2023. This trend suggests a need to pay attention to sectors related to influenza vaccines, virus testing, and pharmaceuticals [6]. Group 4: Company Performance Reviews - Beike (2423.HK) reported a revenue decline in Q3 2025, achieving revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, but net profit decreased by 36.1% [6]. - Tencent Music (TME.N) achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, driven by better-than-expected growth in non-subscription business revenue. Adjusted net profit reached 2.405 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [6]. - Hong Teng Precision (6088.HK) reported a revenue of 1.324 billion USD in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with net profit rising by 9%. The company maintains a net profit forecast of 171 million USD for 2025, driven by significant progress in the high-speed interconnection field [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Chinese stock market, with Hong Kong stocks rising, particularly in healthcare, conglomerates, and real estate, while consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials lagged behind [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.286 billion, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, Xpeng Motors, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and SMIC experienced the most significant net sales [3] - The report anticipates a trend of style switching in the Chinese stock market, with undervalued sectors like chemicals, consumer goods, and banks leading the gains, expected to continue at least until mid-December when policy stimulus clarity increases [3] Market Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,923, up 0.85% for the day and 34.21% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,934, with a slight increase of 0.16% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 32.81% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,000, down 0.07% for the day but up 19.34% year-to-date [1] Sector Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 49,396, up 1.20% for the day and 40.58% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index closed at 19,533, with a significant increase of 3.34% for the day and 30.98% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index closed at 38,428, up 1.17% for the day and 7.75% year-to-date [2] Company Analysis - Tencent Music reported a 21% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 8.46 billion for Q3 2025, with Non-IFRS net profit increasing by 33% to RMB 2.41 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3% and 4% respectively [4] - The report projects a slowdown in revenue growth to 12% year-on-year for Q4 2025, primarily due to normalization of offline performance revenue [4] - The target price for Tencent Music has been adjusted from USD 29.5 to USD 28.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]

北京时间11月12日港股盘后、美股盘前，腾讯音乐（TME.N; 1698.HK）发布了2025年第三季度财报。整体看超预期，尤其是第二增长曲线的故事得以部 分演绎。 但瑕疵也有，即订阅净增继续放缓，侧面印证了财报前市场担忧的竞争加剧影响。目前腾讯音乐与字节的核心用户仍然存在不小的差异（腾讯音乐vs 字 节=高线音乐刚需用户vs下沉抖音神曲用户），因此也给了腾讯音乐一些调整巩固的时间。具体如何应对？稍后也可以关注下电话会。 先来看财报： 1. 订阅稳定增长能否持续？：三季度订阅收入增长16%，订阅用户净增130万，人均付费11.9元/月，增长拉动进一步从"量"（+6%）转变到 了"价"（+10%）。 这里体现的是核心增长点之一——SVIP的渗透拉动，通过丰富会员权益（内容、功能）来获得用户溢价付费，这个增长逻辑并无问题。海豚君之前也说 了，在竞争稳定的时候，无论是量or价驱动，主动权在公司手中，不同季节期间可灵活调整。 但新增订阅数的持续下降，仍然反映了现有生态到顶甚至开始流失的问题，本质上就是竞争带来。这也是财报前腾讯音乐股价持续调整的核心原因，订阅 收入保持稳定增长（长期10%-15%）是远期20x PE估 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 0.97%, closing at 48,392.55, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.21% to 6,860.80. In contrast, the Nasdaq saw a slight decline of 0.11%, ending at 23,442.20 [1] - Semiconductor stocks were notably active, with AMD's stock price rising by up to 8%. The company projected an overall revenue growth of approximately 35% annually over the next three to five years, with AI chip business growth potentially reaching 80% annually [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Coffee-related stocks experienced significant movements, with Dutch Bros rising nearly 6% and Starbucks increasing by nearly 2%. On the other hand, ONON (On Running) surged over 23% following better-than-expected Q3 results [2] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping about 1.5%. Tencent Music fell over 11% after announcing its Q3 results, while Baidu decreased nearly 3% [2][3] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil dropping over 3% and Brent crude oil falling more than 2.8%. This shift was attributed to higher-than-expected U.S. oil production and increased supply from OPEC, leading to a change in OPEC's outlook from a supply shortage to a surplus for Q3 [4] - Gold prices surged, reaching $4,150 per ounce, with a daily increase of about 0.7%. Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver and New York futures rising approximately 2.5% and 3%, respectively [4] - Copper prices on the LME expanded their gains, increasing by about 1%, with a cumulative rise of over 6% for October. Goldman Sachs recently stated that copper will become the "new oil" in the AI era due to its essential role in data center power transmission [4]

| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48049.39 | 121.43 | 0.25% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23545.41 | 77.11 | 0.33% | | 标普500 | 6863.14 | 16.53 | 0.24% | 编辑丨钉钉 11月12日， 美股三大指数开盘齐涨 ，道指涨0.25%，标普500指数涨0.24%，纳指涨0.33%。 芯片股普涨，AMD涨超7%，格芯涨逾5%。 中概股涨跌不一，阿特斯太阳能、禾赛科技涨约3%，腾讯音乐跌超6%，小鹏汽车跌逾3%。 ...

腾讯音乐娱乐集团执行董事长彭迦信表示："第三季度，得益于在线音乐业务的全方位优异表现，我们 再次取得扎实稳健的业绩增长。通过持续创新丰富内容生态，并将服务拓展至更多现场体验，我们不仅 推动了订阅业务收入稳健提升，也带动了演唱会及艺人周边等非订阅服务的强劲增长。依托坚实的财务 基础和卓越的运营能力，我们将继续拓展音乐服务的边界，为整个音乐行业创造更大价值。" 腾讯音乐娱乐集团首席执行官梁柱表示："我们很高兴地看到，平台生态持续繁荣。基于不断深化的用 户洞察，我们以创新方式打造个性化服务与体验，推动用户黏性持续提升，促进了超级会员渗透率与单 个付费用户月均收入进一步增长。展望未来，我们将继续强化核心竞争力、提升平台效率，并把握新兴 机遇，持续赋能音乐创作、带动音乐消费。" 腾讯音乐-SW(01698)公布2025年第三季度财务业绩，总收入为人民币84.6亿元(11.9亿美元)，同比增长 20.6%。公司权益持有人应占净利润为人民币21.5亿元(3.02亿美元)，同比增长36.0%。非国际财务报告 准则公司权益持有人应占净利润为人民币24.1亿元(3.38亿美元)，同比增长32.6%。 每股美国存托股份的 摊薄盈利 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported its third-quarter unaudited financial performance, with total revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and adjusted net profit of 2.48 billion yuan, up 27.7% [1] Financial Performance - The online music service revenue grew by 27.2% year-on-year to 6.97 billion yuan in the third quarter [1] - The average revenue per paying user increased from 10.8 yuan in the same period of 2024 to 11.9 yuan [1] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music's steady growth is attributed to the deepening of its "content and platform" dual strategy [1] - The company has strengthened collaborations with global record companies and artists, hosting large domestic and international tours, and expanding its own performance IP matrix [1] - Continuous innovation in product features and services aims to meet the diverse needs of user groups, creating personalized and differentiated music experiences [1] Future Outlook - Tencent Music plans to seize emerging opportunities and expand its music service offerings, collaborating with industry partners to promote healthy industry development [1]

腾讯音乐娱乐集团执行董事长彭迦信表示：「第三季度，得益于在线音乐业务的全方位优异表现，我们 再次取得紮实稳健的业绩增长。通过持续创新丰富内容生态，并将服务拓展至更多现场体验，我们不仅 推动了订阅业务收入稳健提升，也带动了演唱会及艺人周边等非订阅服务的强劲增长。依托坚实的财务 基础和卓越的运营能力，我们将继续拓展音乐服务的边界，为整个音乐行业创造更大价值。」 腾讯音乐娱乐集团首席执行官梁柱表示：「我们很高兴地看到，平台生态持续繁荣。基于不断深化的用 户洞察，我们以创新方式打造个性化服务与体验，推动用户黏性持续提升，促进了超级会员渗透率与单 个付费用户月均收入进一步增长。展望未来，我们将继续强化核心竞争力、提升平台效率，并把握新兴 机遇，持续赋能音乐创作、带动音乐消费。」 格隆汇11月12日丨腾讯音乐─SW(01698.HK)公布2025年第三季度未经审计财务业绩，截至2025年9月30 日止第三季度，总收入为人民币84.6亿元，同比增长20.6%，主要得益于在线音乐服务收入的同比强劲 增长。公司权益持有人应占净利润为人民币21.5亿元，同比增长36.0%。非国际财务报告准则公司权益 持有人应占净利润为人民币24 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Tencent Musician Fantasy Music Festival successfully concluded in Chengdu, featuring a collaboration between Tencent Musicians, Xinheng Digital Creation (Sichuan) Cultural Media Co., Ltd., and Chengdu Media Group, injecting new vitality into the cultural market of Chengdu [1][4] Group 1: Event Highlights - The festival showcased 16 top domestic and international artists and emerging musicians across various genres, including pop, electronic, and folk music, creating a vibrant atmosphere with audience interactions and performances [3] - Unique interactive segments, such as the "Fantasy Love Letter Post Office" and "Music Seed Cards," integrated environmental concepts and creative designs, enhancing the audience experience [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The event was supported by the Wuhou District government, which aimed to empower the city through culture and improve public welfare, offering exclusive ticket discounts and ensuring smooth transportation for thousands of attendees [4] - The festival's success led to a significant increase in local business traffic, with an average growth of over 30% in customer flow for participating merchants and a 25% year-on-year increase in accommodation bookings [6] Group 3: Strategic Collaboration - The festival achieved over 800 million total exposures across all platforms, with expectations to surpass 2 billion, showcasing a successful blend of online and offline marketing strategies [6] - Future collaborations will focus on deepening strategic partnerships to cultivate influential cultural IPs and enhance the cultural industry ecosystem, contributing to the cultural life of citizens and the development of Chengdu as a world cultural city [6]