Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce on the 8th, reaching a historic high of $4,039.14 per ounce, driven by investor concerns over the outlook for the US dollar and other currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly buying gold and other alternative assets, leading to a rise in "currency devaluation trades" on Wall Street [1] - Gold has replaced the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset this year [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The current surge in gold prices is distinct from previous trends, as it is not triggered by a financial collapse [1] - Investors are speculating on continued increases in gold prices while seeking to hedge against potential consequences of US policy failures, including rising budget deficits and government shutdowns [1] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Joe Davis, Chief Economist at Vanguard, noted a tug-of-war in the market, with the S&P 500 reflecting an AI boom while the gold camp is concerned about structural deficits and fiscal pressures in the US [1] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggested that even with gold prices exceeding $4,000, investors should allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold for risk diversification, drawing parallels to the early 1970s when inflation was high and confidence in dollar assets collapsed [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government has been in a continuous shutdown since October 1, which is viewed as a short-term political disruption by Manulife Investment Management's multi-asset solutions team [1][2] - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns have not significantly impacted the stock market, with the S&P 500 index performing better one month after the start of each shutdown since 1980 [2] Market Performance During Shutdowns - Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and real estate performed relatively well during the longest shutdown in December 2018, which lasted 35 days [1] - In contrast, during the 21-day shutdown in December 1995, technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors underperformed, while consumer staples and utilities were among the best performers [1] - The overall performance of defensive sectors tends to be slightly better than other sectors during shutdowns, but short-term opportunities are often difficult to capitalize on [1] Historical Context and Investor Strategy - Historical shutdowns have not led to significant market volatility, as evidenced by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) [2] - Investors are advised to incorporate liquidity needs into their overall financial plans without altering asset allocation solely due to potential government shutdowns [2] - Market volatility during government shutdowns can provide strategic investors with buying opportunities to capture undervalued or oversold assets [2]

Economic Indicators - The latest data indicates that payroll employment growth for September was only 17,000, significantly lower than the typical growth of about 200,000 per month observed earlier in 2025 [4][5] - There is a notable disconnect between the low job growth and the GDP growth, which is reported at an annualized rate of 2.7% through the end of September [5][6] Consumer Behavior - A recovery in consumer spending is noted, particularly among higher-income households, with about 35% of households having mortgages originated before 2022, insulating them from interest rate risks [7] - A decline of 150 basis points in delinquency rates for consumer loans among the bottom third of households by income suggests a potential broadening of consumption growth [8] Capital Expenditures and AI - The current capital expenditure (capex) boom, particularly in AI, is the largest seen in over 25 years and appears unaffected by higher interest rates [9] - In Q3, AI contributed approximately 70 basis points to GDP growth, indicating a growing but relatively smaller impact on overall economic growth [10] Corporate Investment Trends - There is significant enthusiasm for AI among corporate management teams, with pressures to adopt AI technologies to avoid falling behind competitors [11][13] - The construction sector shows bleak prospects except for data centers, which are experiencing robust growth [12]

Group 1 - Carlyle Group released a "bleak interpretation" of the U.S. labor market to fill the economic data void left by the government shutdown [1] - The estimated increase in non-farm employment for September is only 17,000 jobs, significantly lower than the economist survey's expectation of 54,000 jobs [1] - Carlyle has been calculating its own estimates for U.S. GDP, consumer spending, and inflation for over a decade to serve as timely alternative indicators during data delays [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year in response to signs of weakness in the labor market, despite inflation remaining above its long-term target [2] - The Labor Statistics Bureau surveys approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies for the monthly employment report, while private employment data sources have larger sample sizes [2] - ADP Research reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, raising concerns among markets and economists [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, causing a quiet trading environment [2][3] - Analysts express concerns about the potential impact of a prolonged data drought on trading strategies, particularly in commodities [3] - Despite the government shutdown, the S&P 500 index has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 14% and multiple record highs [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict an 8.8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 companies' earnings for Q3, surpassing earlier forecasts [4] - The market is entering a traditionally strong fourth quarter, with historical data indicating an average increase of 2.9% for the S&P 500 during this period [4] - Market fundamentals remain supported by seasonal trends, potential interest rate cuts, and strong market momentum, leading to continued stock accumulation strategies [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a historical high before a slight retreat, with spot gold rising to $3860 per ounce as of October 3 [1] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with New York silver futures increasing by up to 2%, reaching $47.22 per ounce [1] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that central bank gold demand will remain between 900 to 950 tons in 2025 [3] - UBS anticipates that gold prices may rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months after a strong performance [3] - Aakash Doshi from State Street Global Advisors noted that silver is experiencing a lagging rally, as its performance has not matched that of gold in recent quarters [3] - The supply of silver has consistently lagged behind demand growth in recent years, which has contributed to the current market dynamics [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown, which is expected to negatively impact the U.S. economy and create ripple effects in global markets, affecting trade and financial stability [1] Impact on International Trade - Customs will remain open, but many technical staff will be on unpaid leave, leading to delays in documentation and inspections, particularly affecting perishable goods and pharmaceuticals [2] - The last shutdown caused a 15% to 20% increase in cargo dwell time at major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach [2] - Trade merchants will face difficulties in obtaining import and export licenses due to insufficient personnel, halting new certifications and approvals [2] - The potential for irreversible job cuts during the shutdown could weaken U.S. consumer demand, impacting European exports, especially for German industrial firms [2] - Economic data releases will be delayed or canceled, creating uncertainty for foreign businesses operating in the U.S. market [2] Impact on Financial Markets - The shutdown signals systemic dysfunction and political instability, increasing investor risk aversion and leading to a rise in prices for safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Historical data shows that shutdowns typically lead to a significant increase in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, indicating heightened market volatility [3] - Companies directly or indirectly associated with the U.S. government are likely to see their stock prices pressured [3] - The current high valuations in global asset markets leave little room for error, making the shutdown a negative event that could suppress global market risk appetite [3] - Prolonged shutdowns could lead to further declines in the U.S. dollar index and increased volatility in dollar-denominated assets, affecting global markets [3] Impact on Confidence in the U.S. - The shutdown reveals flaws in the U.S. governance system, undermining confidence in the U.S. economic management capabilities, which could have long-term implications for the global economic order [4] - Standard & Poor's Global indicates that while a short-term shutdown may not affect the U.S. sovereign credit rating, each week of shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% [4] - Concerns about U.S. government credibility and fiscal health are heightened due to the shutdown [4] Impact on Europe - The shutdown is expected to have a nonlinear impact on the European economy, with potential GDP losses of €4 billion for a two-week shutdown and €16 billion for an eight-week shutdown [5] - The situation exacerbates existing global economic uncertainties, with potential for significant economic repercussions if the shutdown continues [5]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented rise in gold prices reached a new peak in September, marking the largest quarterly increase in over 40 years, with further potential for growth anticipated [1][3]. Group 1: Price Performance - Gold prices increased nearly 17% over the past three months, the best quarterly performance since Q2 1982 [3]. - Year-to-date, gold has risen 47%, the strongest increase since 1979 [3]. - As of Thursday, gold was trading around $3,870 per ounce, with expectations that it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the future [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Demand - September saw unprecedented investment demand for gold, with record inflows into gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which added 35.2 tons of gold in September [3]. - On September 19, a single-day inflow of 18.9 tons was recorded, the largest on record [3]. - Despite the high demand, gold ETF holdings remain significantly below the peak levels seen in 2020, indicating that gold is not yet an over-allocated asset [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market conditions are driving investors to seek gold as a hedge against unusual market circumstances [3]. - The Federal Reserve's new easing cycle is creating a "bullish steepening" curve in the U.S. bond market, which is expected to weaken the dollar and provide new momentum for gold [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. and global economy continues to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The analyst believes that while gold reaching $4,000 is a matter of "when" rather than "if," immediate upward movement is not expected [4]. - A new support level for gold is anticipated at $3,500, with continued buying interest expected on dips [4]. - The potential impact of a U.S. government shutdown on gold and the economy remains uncertain, but prolonged shutdowns could have negative growth consequences, which would be beneficial for gold [4].

在进入美联储时，米兰仍保留着白宫经济顾问委员会主席的头衔。 今年9月，美联储联邦公开市场委员（FOMC）议息会议出现了11:1的投票结果。 唯一一位对降息25个基点持有异议的，是刚刚履职仅一天的理事米兰（Stephen Miran）。他更为激进地 主张应一次性降息50个基点。 不到一周后，米兰于9月22日现身纽约希尔顿中城区的经济俱乐部，公开承认自己在货币政策立场上与 其他FOMC成员存在分歧。他明确提出，适当的联邦基金利率应在2%左右，这几乎比当前政策水平低 了2个百分点。 更引发争议的是，米兰在进入美联储履职的同时，仍保留着白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）主席的职务， 只是暂时休假且不领取薪酬。这一安排进一步引发了外界对于特朗普政府可能借此对美联储的独立性施 加不当影响的担忧。 米兰秉持怎样的经济理念？他坚称当前利率过高，究竟是出于对经济现实的判断，还是隐藏着某种政治 议程？他独树一帜的"异见者"身份又将为美联储带来怎样的冲击？ 从华尔街到华盛顿 1983年，米兰出生于美国纽约州的洛克兰郡，他的父母都是美国社会保障管理局的公职人员。米兰称， 他的父母对政策抱有浓厚兴趣，他因此也从小深受这种氛围的感染。 200 ...