Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The real estate index increased by 4.1% in the 30th week, ranking 7th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] - New housing and second-hand housing transactions showed a slight increase, with new housing transactions up by 16% week-on-week and second-hand housing transactions up by 2% [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policies and fiscal measures to stabilize the market, particularly focusing on urban renewal and the adjustment of housing loan policies [13][28] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - Total number of stocks: 107 - Total market value: 1,205.52 billion - Circulating market value: 1,153.12 billion [2] Sales Performance - New housing transaction area in 20 cities was 1.57 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 13% [18] - Second-hand housing transaction area in 11 cities was 1.87 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% [21] Policy News - Chengdu announced measures to promote stable development in the real estate market, including the gradual lifting of housing sales restrictions and adjustments to housing provident fund loan rules [13][15] - Shanghai released new residential design standards to enhance safety, comfort, and sustainability [5][13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [28] - Key companies to watch include Greentown China, China Resources Land, Swire Properties, and Beike-W [28]

Core Viewpoint - The report by JLL highlights the recovery and stabilization of the real estate market in the Greater Bay Area's mainland cities, driven by policy easing and financial support for developers [1][3]. Residential Market Summary - In the first quarter, the overall sales figures and prices of new residential properties performed well, but the market sentiment weakened in April due to the instability caused by the trade war, leading to a cautious buyer attitude [3][4]. - Overall new residential sales in the Greater Bay Area increased by 3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [3]. - The average monthly new residential transactions are expected to reach 27,000 to 28,000 in the second half, with an annual total projected at around 300,000 units; however, there is a potential price decline of up to 5% for the year [4]. Commercial Property Investment Summary - The attitude of property owners has shifted to a more pragmatic approach, with industrial logistics transactions accounting for over 50% of the market in the first half of 2025, including significant deals in large logistics asset packages [3][5]. - The community commercial sector is gaining traction, with stable rental yield projects attracting investor interest, suggesting a potential increase in quality commercial asset transactions in the second half of the year [3][5]. - The logistics and commercial sectors are expected to outperform other segments, driven by strong demand from the expanding cross-border e-commerce market [4][5]. Market Outlook - The easing of demand-side policies and the construction of quality housing are anticipated to release pent-up demand for both rigid and improved housing [3]. - The implementation of special bond storage and acquisition of residential properties is expected to alleviate financial pressures on developers and promote a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market [3]. - Despite the anticipated recovery, market confidence is expected to take time to restore, with ongoing uncertainties likely to maintain a cautious atmosphere into the third quarter [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, predicting a decline in sales and prices, with a potential bottoming out in Q4 2024 [7][8]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant challenges, with a 2.9% year-on-year decline in new home sales expected to worsen in June 2024 [1][3]. - The inventory of new homes remains high, averaging 24 months across 70 cities, with second and third-tier cities facing particularly severe pressure [1][5]. - The shopping center market is undergoing positive consolidation, with leading operators like CR Land expanding market share through acquisitions and a light-asset model [2][9]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a 3.8% year-on-year decline in national real estate sales, with top developers experiencing an 11% drop in sales in the first half of the year [3][4]. - Land sales in 300 key cities have decreased by over 6%, marking a 15-year low [4]. Housing Inventory and Prices - New home prices have been on a downward trend, with a 4% year-on-year decline in May and an 11% drop in second-hand home transaction prices in June [6][8]. - The report anticipates that new home sales will hit a low of 8.4 trillion RMB in 2025, with a reduction in new construction and completion areas [8]. Shopping Center Market Dynamics - The shopping center sector is seeing growth, with over 6,300 centers operational by 2024, primarily in lower-tier cities [9]. - CR Land's same-store sales growth significantly outpaces competitors, achieving a 16% increase compared to 8-9% for others [9][10]. Future Projections - By 2040, CR Land plans to expand its heavy-asset shopping center count by 90%, reaching 174 centers [10][18]. - The report predicts that the real estate market will stabilize in early 2026 for first-tier cities and late 2026 for second-tier cities [8]. Property Management Sector - In 2024, 74% of property management revenue will come from basic management services, with a significant decline in value-added services from developers [21][22]. - Leading companies are focusing on third-party expansion to drive future growth, with a notable decrease in reliance on parent company support [22][25]. Shareholder Returns - The property management industry is characterized by strong cash reserves, with many companies increasing dividends and share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rise of Fuzhou's municipal state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as new market engines amid the slowdown of large central and state-owned enterprises in Fuzhou's investment landscape [1][14]. Investment Focus - Fuzhou's municipal SOEs, unlike their counterparts in Xiamen, are concentrating on local stability and aggressive land acquisition, becoming key players in the land auction market [2][14]. - The land acquisition activity of major local SOEs such as Rongfa, Jianzhong, Zuohai, Gucuo, and Xinqu has significantly increased in recent years, making them crucial support for Fuzhou's land auction market [2][4]. Company Performance - Rongfa Real Estate has shifted its focus to pure commercial residential projects since 2021, becoming one of the most active developers in Fuzhou's land market from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - In 2024, Rongfa achieved a sales amount of 4.132 billion yuan, ranking third in Fuzhou's overall sales, with its key project, Jinshan Grand View, priced at an average of 40,300 yuan per square meter [5]. - Jianzhong Real Estate, also under Fuzhou Urban Investment Group, has been conservative in land acquisition from 2021 to 2023, focusing on public rental housing, but has actively entered the market in 2024 with a total land acquisition amount of 8.103 billion yuan [5][6]. - Zuohai Group, formed from the merger of several companies, has actively participated in key land auctions and has seen mixed performance in project sales, with its first luxury product achieving record sales [9][10]. - Gucuo Group has primarily focused on public rental housing until 2024, with its first pure commercial residential project launched in 2023, which has seen improved sales after being linked to prestigious schools [10][11]. - Xinqu Group has been the least active in land acquisition, focusing on its regional development mission, with its main project, Yingnan Tai, performing well in sales [11][12]. Market Dynamics - Fuzhou's municipal SOEs have captured a significant market share, with a notable presence in the new housing market, particularly in the first half of 2025, where they occupied seven out of fifteen projects with over 100 sales [13][14]. - The market is characterized by a strong demand for affordable housing, while the competition for improvement projects remains intense, indicating a need for enhanced product quality to achieve better sales performance [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Skyworth Group (00751) issued a profit warning, expecting a decline of approximately 50% in after-tax profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period ending June 30, 2024, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the Chinese real estate market and weak sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's stock fell over 3%, specifically down 3.04% to HKD 3.19, with a trading volume of HKD 7.8624 million [1] - The expected decline in after-tax profit is attributed to impairment provisions related to real estate inventory, reflecting changes in the current market environment [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The downturn in the Chinese real estate market has led to poor performance in the company's modern service industry segment, particularly in construction and development business [1] - The company has increased its impairment provisions for real estate inventory in accordance with accounting standards, indicating a response to the challenging market conditions [1]

2025 年 7 月 30 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【策略】市场或继续震荡上行——2025 年 8 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2025 年 8 月 A 股金股组合：东方财富、海南华铁、华友钴业、中国石油、争光股份、 杭叉集团、海尔智家、科大讯飞、中芯国际、新易盛。 2025 年 8 月港股金股组合： 中国人寿、新华保险、香港交易所、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、地平线机器 人-W、美图公司、心动公司、阿里巴巴-W。 行业研究 【互联网传媒】美股 AI 算力需求火热，如何看待下游 AI 应用产业趋势？——海外 AI 行业跟踪报告(买入) 受大模型成本降低等因素驱动，美股 AI 算力需求向下沉市场和新兴市场扩展，主权 AI 算力市场空间广阔。短期来看，IT 运维/网络安全/数据库等领域直接受益于 AI 算 力需求增长，相比下游 AI 应用公司价值链条较短、确定性较强。长期来看，宽松的 融资环境有利于企业加大 AI 投入和 IT 预算，特朗普政府倾向于放松科技监管，AI 算 力和下游 AI 应用的需求有望持续。 【房地产】近期地产跑赢大市，优质龙头涨幅明显——光大地产板块及重点公司跟踪 报告(增持) 2025 ...

Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a change range of -5 BP to 2 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts for medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds rising, while corporate bonds, company bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds has increased, with all varieties showing growth; however, credit bond yields have risen by 4-14 BP [2] - The report suggests that despite the recent yield adjustments, the conditions for a trend reversal in credit bonds remain insufficient, but the support from insufficient supply and strong demand may lead to a potential decline in yields [2] - The report emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic approach to current configurations and trading strategies, focusing on the trends in interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - In the steel sector, prices have rebounded, leading to some replenishment intentions downstream, with macro "anti-involution" news positively impacting steel prices [5] - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to insufficient fundamental support, with attention on the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting and US-China trade negotiations [5] - Lithium prices have been positively influenced by "anti-involution" news, but there is still significant pressure from oversupply, necessitating caution regarding speculative demand [5] - The rare earth sector has seen a significant increase in exports, with June exports rising by 32.02% month-on-month, indicating potential for further price strength due to improving export demand [5] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Yantai City is implementing a series of policies to stimulate the real estate market, focusing on financial support, land supply, and project development to enhance market vitality and ensure steady growth in the sector [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The Yantai government has introduced 25 measures across eight areas including land supply, project development, financial support, and market regulation to promote a stable real estate market [1] - A "white list" for real estate companies will be established to facilitate financing, ensuring that quality developers have access to necessary funds [1] Group 2: Financial Support - The down payment ratio for second homes using public housing funds has been reduced to 20%, while the interest rate for first-time home loans over five years has decreased to 2.6% [1] - High-level talent and families with multiple children can borrow up to 1.6 million yuan, with the option to use public funds for down payments or loan repayments [1] Group 3: Innovative Loan Products - New loan products have been introduced, including a "three lows and one wide" youth housing loan with low down payments, low interest rates, low thresholds, and flexible terms [1] - A combined "mortgage + renovation loan" product is being promoted, allowing up to 3 million yuan for home decoration [1]

Group 1 - Yantai City government is implementing financial support measures to promote the stable development of the real estate market, focusing on national and provincial policies [1] - The city is increasing the issuance of special bonds and ultra-long-term national bonds to support urban village renovations and improve the quality of old residential areas [1] - A "trade-in" housing policy is encouraged, providing subsidies for families selling old homes and purchasing new ones within specified timeframes [2] Group 2 - The city is extending the issuance period for targeted housing vouchers for multi-generational and multi-child families until December 31, 2025, allowing for the combination of different types of vouchers [2] - Provincial support will be provided to cities based on new housing sales, real estate development investment, and related tax revenue, with incentives for cities that effectively stabilize the real estate market [3] - Local governments are encouraged to implement measures such as housing subsidies and consumption vouchers to stimulate housing demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent emergence of a record land price in Shanghai, highlighting the factors influencing high land prices and the implications for the real estate market in China [2][4]. Group 1: Land Price Dynamics - A new record land price of 200,300 RMB per square meter was established in Shanghai, attributed to its prime location near Hengshan Road [2]. - Land prices are determined by three main factors: location, plot ratio, and land use type. The high price is due to the land being residential in a super core area with a low plot ratio of 1.3, making it particularly rare [2][3]. - The land was acquired by a private enterprise, the family of Ye Huabiao, for a total price of 1.225 billion RMB, outbidding state-owned enterprises [3]. Group 2: Future Implications - The small size of the land (4,705.49 square meters) and its low plot ratio means it can only accommodate a few units, but it may be developed into a spacious estate for personal use by the owner [3]. - The rarity of such "mini land" parcels in prime locations could significantly increase their value over time, especially if the owner decides to sell in the future [3]. - The trend of individuals purchasing land to build their own homes reflects a growing desire for personalized living spaces, which is seen as a form of "emotional economy" in the real estate market [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The article suggests that as long as China's economy continues to grow and urbanization progresses, there will be sustained demand for housing improvement and upgrades, indicating that the real estate market has not yet reached its peak [4]. - Comparisons are made with other major cities, noting that Shanghai has yet to see residential prices exceed 1 million RMB per square meter, unlike New York and London [4].